Golden State-Charlotte- What are they thinking?

[Sammy Meatballs]

I have been studying this game for a while and have came up with the following info.

Line is G state -5.5 and 221.

Nelson's plan vs ATL was to outrun them and just outscore them. This works well vs any team, because no one is as fast as G state, they can score the ball with Ellis, jack and Davis, and Harrington.

Check these stats out.

Charlotte's last 14 games - Points allowed- 126 to G state
117 to Denver
118 to Phoenix
104 to NETS
113 to Detroit
106 to Lakers
98 to ATLanta
85 to Spurs
116 to Sacramento
110 to Wizards
113 to Knicks
108 to Celtics
98 to Raps without BOSH
89 to Wolves

Interesting G state is the highest team on the list. Also G state is starting to get hot. I really see G state scoring a lot of points in this game. They are hot of late, especially vs ATL, and Charlotte is not a good defensive team to stop them anyway.

THeir last few games, they scored 135 vs ATL, 110 vs Portland, 119 vs Philly, 105 vs Seattle, 110 vs ATL, 119 vs Boston.

What this tells me is that I am confident that G state will score a lot on Charlotte tomorrow.
G state has allowed the following points of late- 119 to Utah, 117 to Boston, 117 to ATL, 99 to seattle, 97 to Philly, 104 to Portland and 118 to ATL.


I see value in the total of 221 I am thinking. I also can see G state who actually scores more in back to back games, as being able to cover the -5.5.

I really feel that G state will outscore Charlotte 37-21 in one of the quarters to win the game.


I am debating whether this game will go over 221, which I think it will easily or to take the -5.5 points? They both appear solid, as G state is a streaky team that when hot, forget it, Ellis, Jack and Davis will outscore anything that Charlotte throws on the floor, they cannot keep up with G state and will lose even if they get over 100 points. I really think we will see the G state that knocked Dallas out of the playoffs very soon. Once this team gets 3 guys hot, Ellis, jack and Davis they will blow out all these Avg east teams easily.

G state should not overlook Charlotte here and I think Charlotte cannot run with G state and will lose a high scoring affair.

 

[Throwback420]

Now Im scared

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Now Im scared

Lol What are you scare of?

G state also has a higher scoring avg in the 2nd game of back to backs.
I am wondering if this is because they are so fast and if they catch a team a little tired, good night.

I am thinking G state will run, run, run, and tire out Charlotte. Charlotte cannot play this pace of basketball and win the game.

For Charlotte to win they will have to score at least over 110 points, because i dont see G state scoring around the 100 mark. This is true because Charlotte is not defensive anyway, they will have to win a high scoring affair, they will not win 102-95, that will not happen.

Charlotte also has not shown the ability to score 120 points in a game.
It will be a battle to set the pace of the game, but G state usually sets the pace for these games.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

The key to this play as I analyze Charlotte's season up to date is this.

A 3 game road trip to G state, Denver and Phoenix resulted in the following.

3 losses to G state, Denver and Phoenix.

What was interesting is that they gave up season highs in points to these teams.

127 117 and 118 points. This shows that when they try to run they lose and cannot stop these run and gun teams.


I dont think Charlotte can play vs the West teams. They also cannot stop the Lakers also.

I am gonna take G state -5.5 points

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Charlotte has won 2 straight games, which spells letdown coming into this game (CHA is 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS off 2 SU wins this season, with a highest game total of 202 points), that means the danger is they don't contribute what someone will need from them for the total to go Over.
6 of GDS's 7 totals that have fallen below 200 pts this season have come in road games.

So many stats make Over such an easy play...
CHA 13-3-1 to Over last 17 games, 6-0 to Over last 6 games
GDS 17-3 to Over last 20 games, 7-0 to Over last 7 road games
...yet these 2 teams have never totaled more than 205 points in a game played in Charlotte.

Of the 2 "obvious" plays, I think GS ATS is a better choice than Over.

 

[SportsNut]

Agree with BET. I could really see GSW running away with this like 112-95 or so..wouldnt back a game under but would certainly reevaluate it at halftime hoping for a 120+ effort..GSW is actually very good laying points on teh road...had the numbers last night think 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS..just check the Tuesday discussion thread ...

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Charlotte has won 2 straight games, which spells letdown coming into this game (CHA is 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS off 2 SU wins this season, with a highest game total of 202 points), that means the danger is they don't contribute what someone will need from them for the total to go Over.
6 of GDS's 7 totals that have fallen below 200 pts this season have come in road games.

So many stats make Over such an easy play...
CHA 13-3-1 to Over last 17 games, 6-0 to Over last 6 games
GDS 17-3 to Over last 20 games, 7-0 to Over last 7 road games
...yet these 2 teams have never totaled more than 205 points in a game played in Charlotte.

Of the 2 "obvious" plays, I think GS ATS is a better choice than Over.

Thats my boy Crimes, its a crime to have such a smart man in this forum.
I actually thought about that, I don't need a score of 119-96 which would go under.

Also of serious note I found some interesting stats with Charlotte on that 3 game road trip at G state, Den and Phoenix.

THey gave up 33 3 point baskets in these games, which indicates they are not good at guarding the 2 pointer.

THey allowed 41 free throws to Denver and 32 to Golden State.

G state made 10 3 pointers out of 18 attempts.

Davis, Ellis and Jack were +27, +36 and +37 respectively while they were on the floor in game one.

G state will score for sure, and they will not be able to tame teams and win like they did vs the BOSHLESS RAPS and the T Wolves who stink.

This is a stepup in competition and they will lose this game.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Agree with BET. I could really see GSW running away with this like 112-95 or so..wouldnt back a game under but would certainly reevaluate it at halftime hoping for a 120+ effort..GSW is actually very good laying points on teh road...had the numbers last night think 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS..just check the Tuesday discussion thread ...

10-4 when in doubt and the line being -5.5 I would always side with the side over a total, because in some NBA games there are no points in the last 3 minutes of the games, the players hold the ball and don't even try.

G state is the play -5.5, thanks guys for the help.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Also does not concern me that the Bobcats won 2 games in a row.

They beat the Boshless Raptors after getting 32 second chance points and the Raps shot 51% in the game.

And a win vs the WOLVES who are the WOLVES.

This is called a stepup game, where they play much much better competition in G state, both the Raps and Wolves are not great on O.

 

[tuck321]

The Bobcats have now covered 8 in a row getting 6 or fewer points. 5 of those games were at home.

 

[EHS49]

Great writeup Sammy. I agree Crimes and Co. The side looks more obvious than the over. Charlotte can come out very flat. One thing you forget is that Gerald wallace played the last meeting. He didn't play well, but what he brings to the team is defense. He plays defense well. Though felton and wallace both sprained their ankles in the 3rd they weren't doing much then. baron davis had only 5 shots the last game 2-5. weird. anyhow GSW is picking up momentum and are gonna go on a mini winning streak. i do think it will go over as carroll has slotted in well and shoots the three ball at a high percentage. charlotte off a tough match up last night vs minny. the score doesn't reflect it, but they were duking it out last night all the way until final minutes of 4th when bobcats pulled away. minny hacked alot and sent bobcats to the line. they are more tired than gsw and also factor in having to fly back from minny when gsw was down the street in atlanta. just like sportsnut and i presumed last night, atlanta will fial to run and gun with gsw all game. they aren't used to it. charlotte is gonna try and run and gun with gsw as well. gsw is good at making others play THEIR GAME. by end of 3rd, their legs are gonna fall off.

GSW 118-98.

 

[Sactown King]

Sammy, i agree with the others. The sides look better than the total since GSW have been shooting well recently. They're now on b2b so their shots may stop falling. As for the Cats... Screw them. GSW may reach the 100+ mark but i'm not sure if the Cats can. GL buddy!