gimme your dark horse in the 07/08 season
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Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
SF
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
for their division, that is...
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
If I say Cleveland what's the over/under on people laughing?
I'm going to go with 88%.
(For f**k's sake, even the president currently has like a 29% approval rating, there have to be 12% of the people out there who'd think, 'well, if Brady Quinn is better in his first year than Roethlisberger was, maybe . . .')
Granted, I've done zero research on the upcoming season, vis a vis schedules, etc., but I do think both 'Zona and SF fight for that division. Actually, I think there's a reall chance Seattle finishes fourth in the West.
I think all your dark horses probably need to come out of the NFC, unless you're looking at a Denver.
I think NO is actually a dark horse, though I'm sure they wouldn't be what you're looking for. It's extremely hard to repeat as the team that cashes in on a weak schedule and and a down division. But if they've fixed their defense they've got the pieces to be strong for a few years (despite once again cutting the Beer Man over the summer).
Why are teams so stupid.
I'm going to go with 88%.
(For f**k's sake, even the president currently has like a 29% approval rating, there have to be 12% of the people out there who'd think, 'well, if Brady Quinn is better in his first year than Roethlisberger was, maybe . . .')
Granted, I've done zero research on the upcoming season, vis a vis schedules, etc., but I do think both 'Zona and SF fight for that division. Actually, I think there's a reall chance Seattle finishes fourth in the West.
I think all your dark horses probably need to come out of the NFC, unless you're looking at a Denver.
I think NO is actually a dark horse, though I'm sure they wouldn't be what you're looking for. It's extremely hard to repeat as the team that cashes in on a weak schedule and and a down division. But if they've fixed their defense they've got the pieces to be strong for a few years (despite once again cutting the Beer Man over the summer).
Why are teams so stupid.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Texans and Lions.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I want to watch the Lions in presason to see how their offensive line comes together. If it does, that team could be great for overs this year.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Yeah, they, like every NFL team, have no depth on O-line. 2 major injuries and they have no hope.
All the cap money for non-starters gets wasted on over-hyped skill guys. Then, there is no way for a team to have depth on o-line.
You're right, Joe Public, Lions will go on offense only as far as their o-line continuity allows.
All the cap money for non-starters gets wasted on over-hyped skill guys. Then, there is no way for a team to have depth on o-line.
You're right, Joe Public, Lions will go on offense only as far as their o-line continuity allows.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Too many publicos are hyping SF this year. Scary.
I see no one hyping Texans or Redskins.
Even too many publicos like Lions, for some reason.
I don't know how or why it works the way it does, but the best thing for a team entering a new season is to be hated by the public and under the radar as far as the "talking heads" are concerned. Under the radar means no fantasy guys and no national TV games.
Patriots? They're dead. Jinxed by the public.
I see no one hyping Texans or Redskins.
Even too many publicos like Lions, for some reason.
I don't know how or why it works the way it does, but the best thing for a team entering a new season is to be hated by the public and under the radar as far as the "talking heads" are concerned. Under the radar means no fantasy guys and no national TV games.
Patriots? They're dead. Jinxed by the public.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Brewer--
Hahahahahahahaahahahhaha
I love it.
Spot on, man.
The public is one big jinx.
Salisbury? The guy so works for Vegas it's ridiculous.
Hahahahahahahaahahahhaha
I love it.
Spot on, man.
The public is one big jinx.
Salisbury? The guy so works for Vegas it's ridiculous.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Pats may win division and win a playoff game, but they ain't going to any Super Bowl.
They are the odds on favorite.
The public is in love with them.
They are dead.
They are the odds on favorite.
The public is in love with them.
They are dead.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
You're right, Joe Public,
Thank you for contributing to the continuted creation of my 'Joe, you're a genius,' mosaic.
=)
Thank you for contributing to the continuted creation of my 'Joe, you're a genius,' mosaic.
=)
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
i think the jets and titans are dead.
Again, it's really early, but I like where this is headed. I think the Jets are well-coached, but I think they might be this year's version of the Bengals last year.
The Jets got fat and happy beating up on bad teams last year (and, of course, losing to the Browns because the Browns are just that good). I haven't seen their schedule yet (I don't do that until August), but I highly doubt they're going to get that lucky again.
As for the Titans, I do think they're moving in the right direction, I just think there was zero pressure on VY last year. Let's see how he does when he has to play against some good teams and do it over 16 games.
Again, it's really early, but I like where this is headed. I think the Jets are well-coached, but I think they might be this year's version of the Bengals last year.
The Jets got fat and happy beating up on bad teams last year (and, of course, losing to the Browns because the Browns are just that good). I haven't seen their schedule yet (I don't do that until August), but I highly doubt they're going to get that lucky again.
As for the Titans, I do think they're moving in the right direction, I just think there was zero pressure on VY last year. Let's see how he does when he has to play against some good teams and do it over 16 games.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
VY is on the cover of Madden. He's dead.
Titans may be OK, but VY is dead meat.
No one can survive that curse. LT was smart to refuse it.
"Joe Public" is an NFL Guru.
Titans may be OK, but VY is dead meat.
No one can survive that curse. LT was smart to refuse it.
"Joe Public" is an NFL Guru.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Extremely kind of you to say, Clay.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go knock on a whole lot of wood.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go knock on a whole lot of wood.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Yeah, Joe Public, the gambling gods are a very angry and vengeful bunch. They basically hate everyone and can only be kept at bay by constant worship and praise.
That being said.
I love the gambling gods. I do believe in gambling gods. I do, I do, I do.
That being said.
I love the gambling gods. I do believe in gambling gods. I do, I do, I do.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
like with AZ...been there, done that...numerous times already...all to no avail. why add another nail to the coffin?
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
I think Arizona could be a solid play off team this season. Also think a team like Minnesota could make some noise in the NFC central. I don't have any respect for the Bears.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Young 'un as a coach. They either do great this year or are in the crapper. Depends on their start.
They get lucky by drawing Cleveland first. Line is damn high with Browns as a 4.5 dog, but Steelers really "should" at least win the game and begin the year 1-0.
They get lucky by drawing Cleveland first. Line is damn high with Browns as a 4.5 dog, but Steelers really "should" at least win the game and begin the year 1-0.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Yeah, Fondy. The public hates the Vikings. I got a buddy at work who keeps talking "EVERY FUCKING DAY" about how much he hates Minnesota this year and how horrible they're going to be.
Yadda, yadda, yadda.
They may win 7 or more games. I "think" their win total is 6.5. I say "Over."
Yadda, yadda, yadda.
They may win 7 or more games. I "think" their win total is 6.5. I say "Over."
Toronto_Mike
Scent of a Woman
Raiders....to win 3 games
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I think Minnesota can be a NFC championship team, but I don't know enough about this QB Jackson. From the little I saw from him last year, he didn't play to well. And only having Bollinger behind him, it seems Minnesota has some high hopes for Jackson.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
If Minnesota had a QB they could be a playoff team--assuming their line holds together.
That team had a bunch of injuries last year which took them from an 8-8/9-7 team to whatever they were 6-10/7-9.
If their line stayed together, they could have a decent season. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced Tavaris can win more than four games in an NFL season. So if they want to even consider .500, they're going to need a great year from their defense.
That team had a bunch of injuries last year which took them from an 8-8/9-7 team to whatever they were 6-10/7-9.
If their line stayed together, they could have a decent season. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced Tavaris can win more than four games in an NFL season. So if they want to even consider .500, they're going to need a great year from their defense.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
2007 Public Darlings:
New England (probably top of the list)
Indy
San Diego
Dallas (no idea why)
San Francisco
Arizona
Public Hates These:
Miami
Cleveland
Houston
Washington
Minnesota
Atlanta
Oakland
The other 19 kind of fall in the middle.
New England (probably top of the list)
Indy
San Diego
Dallas (no idea why)
San Francisco
Arizona
Public Hates These:
Miami
Cleveland
Houston
Washington
Minnesota
Atlanta
Oakland
The other 19 kind of fall in the middle.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Biggest Bust in Fantasy Football 2007?:
No question about it, Mr. Frank Gore.
No question about it, Mr. Frank Gore.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Dallas (no idea why)
Two words: Tony Romo
As for the list of hated teams, can you really find reasons to like any of those teams?
Excluding the Browns, of course.
Two words: Tony Romo
As for the list of hated teams, can you really find reasons to like any of those teams?
Excluding the Browns, of course.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Yeah, Joe Public, I can find 2 reasons why to like my list of the public's hated teams:
1) The public hates them (reason enough)
2) They are all under the radar (all mags I've flipped through at the news-stands.....none of the mags are hyping any of them).
Joe Public, man, you know as well as I do that the best thing for a team entering the new season is to be under the radar and hated by the public. Now I'm not at all saying that the public is wrong on EVERYTHING, but it is almost a stone cold fact for 2007 that the public IS going to be wrong BIG-TIME on some of their darlings and some of their hated teams. I damn sure wish I knew the ones, as I can only look through those lists, compare them to the odds out of Vegas, and see if any are worth future's bets.
For my money, man, the best value on the board is Ravens to win Super Bowl.
1) The public hates them (reason enough)
2) They are all under the radar (all mags I've flipped through at the news-stands.....none of the mags are hyping any of them).
Joe Public, man, you know as well as I do that the best thing for a team entering the new season is to be under the radar and hated by the public. Now I'm not at all saying that the public is wrong on EVERYTHING, but it is almost a stone cold fact for 2007 that the public IS going to be wrong BIG-TIME on some of their darlings and some of their hated teams. I damn sure wish I knew the ones, as I can only look through those lists, compare them to the odds out of Vegas, and see if any are worth future's bets.
For my money, man, the best value on the board is Ravens to win Super Bowl.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Look it, the NFL season is only 16 games. The perceived weaklings can sometimes get on a roll, win 5 out of 6, lose the other 6 out of 10, and then crack the playoffs with a 9-7 record, maybe even win a sorry division like the NFC Least.
NFL is so about momentum in wins, it isn't funny. A shit team like Detroit could easily ham and egg 5 out of 6 by scores of like 28-26, and then find their asses in the Big Dance in January.
Conversely, one key injury to a darling (Gore, Peyton, LT, Tommy B), and that team could lose 5 out of 6 and fuck their playoffs.
On "paper," I can see why the talking heads say what they say......it's safe. Salisbury isn't going to come out and start proclaiming the Hoston Texans to win the AFC South, cause if he's wrong, he looks like the sole clown. He's got safety in numbers to just join the paper crowd, and then be wrong with the rest of the public.....no one will "crucify" him and everyone can say, "damn, who woulda' thunk it?". But you know as well as I that the NFL ain't going to go to plan, man.
NFL is so about momentum in wins, it isn't funny. A shit team like Detroit could easily ham and egg 5 out of 6 by scores of like 28-26, and then find their asses in the Big Dance in January.
Conversely, one key injury to a darling (Gore, Peyton, LT, Tommy B), and that team could lose 5 out of 6 and fuck their playoffs.
On "paper," I can see why the talking heads say what they say......it's safe. Salisbury isn't going to come out and start proclaiming the Hoston Texans to win the AFC South, cause if he's wrong, he looks like the sole clown. He's got safety in numbers to just join the paper crowd, and then be wrong with the rest of the public.....no one will "crucify" him and everyone can say, "damn, who woulda' thunk it?". But you know as well as I that the NFL ain't going to go to plan, man.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
You're absolutely right about flying under the radar, but you still need to have the components to succeed. I look at that list and I'm not sure any of them really qualify.
That doesn't mean they won't be great ATS, who knows, it's just tough for me to see any of those teams really winning a lot of games. Not without huge leaps at key positions.
For example, if Miami, who I'm pretty sure will have an entirely new starting O-line--at least, guys starting at different positions--if they don't jell quickly, Trent Green won't finish the season. He'll be wheeled off in week four and he'll watch from the owner's box the rest of the way.
The one I like most of that list is probably Houston, but they, too need a huge jump, at QB, on defense.
Actually, that's what's great about that list--if you want a true dark horse, look there because nobody expects anything from them and for good reason. But one of them, maybe two, might get some unexpected great play from somewhere and that could be the difference between 4-12 and 8-8.
For my money, man, the best value on the board is Ravens to win Super Bowl.
Now, there's something I can get behind.
I think a couple of teams with a lot of value right now in their respective conferences are Baltimore and, you guessed it, the Eagles.
Nobody's talking about either of them, and both have a lot of talent.
I actually heard Billick on the radio recently and I'll watch for it in preseason, but listening to him talk it sounds like they're going to open it up and score some points this year. I think their first couple of weeks might be good for some overs if the schedule is right.
He talked about always feeling how he had to grind it out before, but now he feels like they have the guys to open up the field. I just want to see if he means it.
That doesn't mean they won't be great ATS, who knows, it's just tough for me to see any of those teams really winning a lot of games. Not without huge leaps at key positions.
For example, if Miami, who I'm pretty sure will have an entirely new starting O-line--at least, guys starting at different positions--if they don't jell quickly, Trent Green won't finish the season. He'll be wheeled off in week four and he'll watch from the owner's box the rest of the way.
The one I like most of that list is probably Houston, but they, too need a huge jump, at QB, on defense.
Actually, that's what's great about that list--if you want a true dark horse, look there because nobody expects anything from them and for good reason. But one of them, maybe two, might get some unexpected great play from somewhere and that could be the difference between 4-12 and 8-8.
For my money, man, the best value on the board is Ravens to win Super Bowl.
Now, there's something I can get behind.
I think a couple of teams with a lot of value right now in their respective conferences are Baltimore and, you guessed it, the Eagles.
Nobody's talking about either of them, and both have a lot of talent.
I actually heard Billick on the radio recently and I'll watch for it in preseason, but listening to him talk it sounds like they're going to open it up and score some points this year. I think their first couple of weeks might be good for some overs if the schedule is right.
He talked about always feeling how he had to grind it out before, but now he feels like they have the guys to open up the field. I just want to see if he means it.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
The perceived weaklings can sometimes get on a roll,
Absolutely, that's why I think if you can identify two things about teams early, one, who's got the horses, two, who doesn't, then you're ahead of the game.
Because, as you said, every year there are teams that seemingly rise up from nowhere. NO was one last year--now I will say I missed badly on them, but I was worried about their defense. Which turned out to be pretty average, but somehow didn't really matter until the NFC Championship.
But Brees did everything there he did in SD, I should have seen that coming and, more over, when it started to happen early in the season, I should have jumped on it and rode it into the playoffs.
That's the thing, there are teams just like that every year, teams that have the talent, it's just a matter of whether they put it together. Generally you know if that's happening by about week four.
Same with the underacheivers.
The only downside ends up being teams like the Broncos. Who seems to start great every year only to slowly be figured out by the rest of the league and fall apart.
Absolutely, that's why I think if you can identify two things about teams early, one, who's got the horses, two, who doesn't, then you're ahead of the game.
Because, as you said, every year there are teams that seemingly rise up from nowhere. NO was one last year--now I will say I missed badly on them, but I was worried about their defense. Which turned out to be pretty average, but somehow didn't really matter until the NFC Championship.
But Brees did everything there he did in SD, I should have seen that coming and, more over, when it started to happen early in the season, I should have jumped on it and rode it into the playoffs.
That's the thing, there are teams just like that every year, teams that have the talent, it's just a matter of whether they put it together. Generally you know if that's happening by about week four.
Same with the underacheivers.
The only downside ends up being teams like the Broncos. Who seems to start great every year only to slowly be figured out by the rest of the league and fall apart.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
Yeah, NO was a good one last year. My biggest futures bet last year was their O6 wins total at +105 on Bet365......risked 800 rocks after going through the win totals for 2 months---they clearly had the most value coupled with the biggest margin for error. With Aaron Brooks in 2005, they had like 46 TOs. I thought that if Brees could stay healthy in 2006, they could win 7-8 games (as you know, Brees was a HUGE "if" entering the 2006 season). Also, NO had karma on their side......Katrina from 2005. Clearly, their key game in 2006 was MNF vs Atlanta. They "HAD" to win that game to make that O6 future turn solid, and they bashed the hell out of the Falcons. I remember I was so nervous before that game.....I knew that 800 rocks was riding on that outcome.
There's just no value and no room for error in betting on New England to be good. Vegas has all that shit priced in, and then some.
The way to go with futures is to do exactly like we're doing now.......pour over lists for about 2 months and then compare stuff to the Vegas odds and go for the value.
No question, "value" will only be found by going against the public grain. Fading the darlings and betting the hated.
No value betting the darlings and fading the hated.
There's just no value and no room for error in betting on New England to be good. Vegas has all that shit priced in, and then some.
The way to go with futures is to do exactly like we're doing now.......pour over lists for about 2 months and then compare stuff to the Vegas odds and go for the value.
No question, "value" will only be found by going against the public grain. Fading the darlings and betting the hated.
No value betting the darlings and fading the hated.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
"For now," here are the future plays I am looking at:
Dee-troit O6
Balty O9
Indy u11.5
Chicago u10
Atlanta u7.5
Seattle u9
I'd like to take 3 or 5 futures and go anywhere from 600-800 on each, and then hope to clear money by going 2-1 or 3-2.
Dee-troit O6
Balty O9
Indy u11.5
Chicago u10
Atlanta u7.5
Seattle u9
I'd like to take 3 or 5 futures and go anywhere from 600-800 on each, and then hope to clear money by going 2-1 or 3-2.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I usually do schedule totals in August after I feel I've seen enough from camp to be able to look at schedules, but right now I like that Indy play a lot.
I admittedly took too many season totals last year. I still came out ahead by one or two, but I had like nine or ten plays by the time it was all said and done.
Oh, and VY single-handedly f**ked my Tenn. under. Last year that f**ker took back almost all the money he made me in the Rose Bowl just nine months earlier.
Really, looking at those number, I don't see much to dislike. Though I'll stay away from Atlanta. Too much uncertainty all around there. I like the lean, however.
I admittedly took too many season totals last year. I still came out ahead by one or two, but I had like nine or ten plays by the time it was all said and done.
Oh, and VY single-handedly f**ked my Tenn. under. Last year that f**ker took back almost all the money he made me in the Rose Bowl just nine months earlier.
Really, looking at those number, I don't see much to dislike. Though I'll stay away from Atlanta. Too much uncertainty all around there. I like the lean, however.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
who is talking bout zona clay?
Everybody.
There was just another article in the Sporting News last week about them, how Russ Grim is fixing their horrible O-line.
It's the same people who were talking them up before last year. The Salsbury's of the world and whatnot.
Everybody.
There was just another article in the Sporting News last week about them, how Russ Grim is fixing their horrible O-line.
It's the same people who were talking them up before last year. The Salsbury's of the world and whatnot.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
'Zona isn't nearly as hyped as last year (SF has replaced them), but there is enough buzz around them to make me worried.
Hell, 2 of the 6 futures I like may end up being "too publicky" for my taste.
Too many now hate Atlanta (thank-you Mr. Dogfighting).
Too many now like Detroit (thank-you, Calvin Johnson).
I have been hating on Miami for a few months now, and now I realize that is the public thing to do. So now their u7 looks like mush.
Yeah, Joe Public, VY fucked a lot of Tenn uNDERS last year. I know well the game vs NY. That's more "Coughlin" for you. He better get off to a really good start this season, or that team is going to implode fast.
And VY this year is dead. No one can survive the Madden curse. LT knew it and refused the cover. LT is smart. VY is doomed.
Hell, 2 of the 6 futures I like may end up being "too publicky" for my taste.
Too many now hate Atlanta (thank-you Mr. Dogfighting).
Too many now like Detroit (thank-you, Calvin Johnson).
I have been hating on Miami for a few months now, and now I realize that is the public thing to do. So now their u7 looks like mush.
Yeah, Joe Public, VY fucked a lot of Tenn uNDERS last year. I know well the game vs NY. That's more "Coughlin" for you. He better get off to a really good start this season, or that team is going to implode fast.
And VY this year is dead. No one can survive the Madden curse. LT knew it and refused the cover. LT is smart. VY is doomed.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
ESPN will do their list of stuff to fade all through August. They'll do what they always do......protect their asses by joining the masses.
They'll pick San Diego, NE, and Indy to win SB.
None of them will go out on a limb and pick something hard. If any of 'em had the balls to do something daring, the mute button may come off the TV.
It'll never happen in this country for obvious reasons, but the only people who should be on ESPN picking football games are those who set the lines for Vegas, or those who make money gambling on football. Vegas line-setters and gamblers are the only ones who can give non-public answers.
They'll pick San Diego, NE, and Indy to win SB.
None of them will go out on a limb and pick something hard. If any of 'em had the balls to do something daring, the mute button may come off the TV.
It'll never happen in this country for obvious reasons, but the only people who should be on ESPN picking football games are those who set the lines for Vegas, or those who make money gambling on football. Vegas line-setters and gamblers are the only ones who can give non-public answers.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
You have a good point, Clay.
The media, be they ESPN, Fox, or even NBC, they all have a vested interest in hyping specific teams. Those are the big draw tickets, those are the ones people are already inclined to see, so if you can hype them even more, they may spill over into watching other teams as well as they wait for supposed SB teams like Indy, SD or whoever.
So if they have a vested interest there, why on earth would they ever do anything that might take away from that.
The media, be they ESPN, Fox, or even NBC, they all have a vested interest in hyping specific teams. Those are the big draw tickets, those are the ones people are already inclined to see, so if you can hype them even more, they may spill over into watching other teams as well as they wait for supposed SB teams like Indy, SD or whoever.
So if they have a vested interest there, why on earth would they ever do anything that might take away from that.
claycourtlesson
SQUARE JOHN PUBLIC PEEP
ESPN talking heads also have to keep their jobs. If Public Salisbury or Public Golic comes out and picks the under the radar teams to win, then they have got to be right, or they lose their jobs. That's the way it is.
They have safety in picking the public teams, cause if they're wrong, then they can all play the "who woulda' thunk it card." Most importantly, they keep their kushy ass jobs.
Joe Public, you know the deal. These clowns all work for Vegas, at least indirectly.
The purpose of this thread is to enlighten those new to gambling who may not know how conniving this crap can be.
ESPN is for fading. Put it in bold.
But, it has to be so the kushy ass job can be kept.
If I worked for ESPN and had a kushy ass gig, better believe I'd tell the viewers what they wanted to hear....."Yeah, I am picking New England to win Super Bowl this year." I can't go wrong cause that's safe.
ESPN will never put a hard-core wise-guy football sharpie on their show. The average viewer wouldn't know what the fuck was going on.
ESPN is no good for anything except viewing the games.....with the mute on!!!!!!!!
They have safety in picking the public teams, cause if they're wrong, then they can all play the "who woulda' thunk it card." Most importantly, they keep their kushy ass jobs.
Joe Public, you know the deal. These clowns all work for Vegas, at least indirectly.
The purpose of this thread is to enlighten those new to gambling who may not know how conniving this crap can be.
ESPN is for fading. Put it in bold.
But, it has to be so the kushy ass job can be kept.
If I worked for ESPN and had a kushy ass gig, better believe I'd tell the viewers what they wanted to hear....."Yeah, I am picking New England to win Super Bowl this year." I can't go wrong cause that's safe.
ESPN will never put a hard-core wise-guy football sharpie on their show. The average viewer wouldn't know what the fuck was going on.
ESPN is no good for anything except viewing the games.....with the mute on!!!!!!!!
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
i think the jets and titans are dead.
Brewer, when you get an opportunity, could you please elaborate why you think the Jets are dead this year. Their season total is sitting at 8 (+ odds) and I am seriously considering betting this Over. I realize they play the AFCn (very tough) and the NFCe (tough), but they are also the 2nd best team in their division and draw KC and Tennessee as their wild card games (instead of Jacksonville or Denver).
The AFC will be fun this year; the 4 best teams, Indy, NE, Balt and SD all play each other outside the division.
Best of luck to everybody on all futures.
Brewer, when you get an opportunity, could you please elaborate why you think the Jets are dead this year. Their season total is sitting at 8 (+ odds) and I am seriously considering betting this Over. I realize they play the AFCn (very tough) and the NFCe (tough), but they are also the 2nd best team in their division and draw KC and Tennessee as their wild card games (instead of Jacksonville or Denver).
The AFC will be fun this year; the 4 best teams, Indy, NE, Balt and SD all play each other outside the division.
Best of luck to everybody on all futures.
brewer
Fan Club of any and everyone good!
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brewer
Fan Club of any and everyone good!
horses, just look at that schedule i dont know how somebody can feel confident bout 8 wins with this team. afc north, nfc east, and division games are never easy. they also play 4 of 5 on the road before their home finale (which by then im betting they are already out of the playoff picture).
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
brewer, I've looked at all the schedules and this is one of the one's I'm considering. I agree it is a tough schedule, however...
you mention 4 of their last 5 on the road before their home finale; including their home finale, I think they'll be favored in 4 of their last 6 games. More importantly, I think they'll be favored in 10 of their 16 games, and this does not include the "neutral site" game vs the Giants (the Giants should have more fans due to season tix but the Jets will have good representation).
I do have them favored over both PA teams @ home; perhaps these are the swing games as to whether they get the total and the playoffs.
Regardless, they are the clear cut 2nd best in their division, so for them not to reach this total, three teams in the division would likely end up below .500.
Thanks for the response.
you mention 4 of their last 5 on the road before their home finale; including their home finale, I think they'll be favored in 4 of their last 6 games. More importantly, I think they'll be favored in 10 of their 16 games, and this does not include the "neutral site" game vs the Giants (the Giants should have more fans due to season tix but the Jets will have good representation).
I do have them favored over both PA teams @ home; perhaps these are the swing games as to whether they get the total and the playoffs.
Regardless, they are the clear cut 2nd best in their division, so for them not to reach this total, three teams in the division would likely end up below .500.
Thanks for the response.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I see 10 wins for NYJ. Could get them another Wildcard spot in 08'.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Ahhhhh, my eyes. A schedule. Don't show me that in June, you could scar my retinas.
I think it's extremely difficult to bet a season over before camp. Every year a team loses somebody for the season in camp. Last year, about four teams did. The Browns lost their starting center, the Falcons lost probably their best receiver, and on and on. Wasn't it last year when Clinton Portis got hurt in like the first drive of the first preseason game?
I understand wanting the best price and number, but I think it's a huge risk betting anything right now.
I think it's extremely difficult to bet a season over before camp. Every year a team loses somebody for the season in camp. Last year, about four teams did. The Browns lost their starting center, the Falcons lost probably their best receiver, and on and on. Wasn't it last year when Clinton Portis got hurt in like the first drive of the first preseason game?
I understand wanting the best price and number, but I think it's a huge risk betting anything right now.
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
JoeP, I agree with what you say, but there is a tradeoff (as you mention) when you wait. Yes, there is less uncertainty if you wait till after the 3rd preseason game (last significant action for starters), but usually lose out on good prices.
I didn't say I was going to bet the Jets Over right now; only that it is one of the stronger plays as I sit here now. Last year I bet my season totals shortly after the initial preseason weekend. I suppose it seems like there is a significant injury every year during camp, but I can't really recall a lot of them if there were. Out of the ones you mention above, how many really affected their teams outcome for the year? Portis played in week 1 LY and Betts was a solid replacement anyway. The Browns Center situation was already starting to look bad at this time last year...well before camp. I didn't even know Atlanta had any WR's of note...honestly don't remember that one.
The one incident that I recall that had a big effect is when Ricky announced a week before camp that he was retiring. Wanny exasperated the situation when he said publicly that his team was screwed. Another incident was Big Ben and his appendectomy as well...just thought of that one.
I typically go thru these steps to get my bets down:
- analyze schedules in May and project "wins" for each team
- compare to initial released numbers (in this case, the numbers are unbelievably at Bodog)
- at this point I normally have 4-5 teams I consider
- monitor odds changes and of course news stories for these teams in particular
- make bet at most optimal time
I guess that last step is the real trick; for me, that usually occurs after the 1st week of preseason, though, I have pulled the trigger before in July and I have also waited till a few days before the first regular season game based on odds moving in my favor or new info that I consider relevant.
You're right though; if I bet the Jets Over 8 (+115) right now, and Pennington goes down in early August...I am officially screwed.
:smiley_acbe: I like this dude!
I didn't say I was going to bet the Jets Over right now; only that it is one of the stronger plays as I sit here now. Last year I bet my season totals shortly after the initial preseason weekend. I suppose it seems like there is a significant injury every year during camp, but I can't really recall a lot of them if there were. Out of the ones you mention above, how many really affected their teams outcome for the year? Portis played in week 1 LY and Betts was a solid replacement anyway. The Browns Center situation was already starting to look bad at this time last year...well before camp. I didn't even know Atlanta had any WR's of note...honestly don't remember that one.
The one incident that I recall that had a big effect is when Ricky announced a week before camp that he was retiring. Wanny exasperated the situation when he said publicly that his team was screwed. Another incident was Big Ben and his appendectomy as well...just thought of that one.
I typically go thru these steps to get my bets down:
- analyze schedules in May and project "wins" for each team
- compare to initial released numbers (in this case, the numbers are unbelievably at Bodog)
- at this point I normally have 4-5 teams I consider
- monitor odds changes and of course news stories for these teams in particular
- make bet at most optimal time
I guess that last step is the real trick; for me, that usually occurs after the 1st week of preseason, though, I have pulled the trigger before in July and I have also waited till a few days before the first regular season game based on odds moving in my favor or new info that I consider relevant.
You're right though; if I bet the Jets Over 8 (+115) right now, and Pennington goes down in early August...I am officially screwed.
:smiley_acbe: I like this dude!
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