Pirates Ready to Terrorize San Francisco on Sunday
San Francisco hosts Pittsburgh to close a four-game series on Sunday afternoon. The Pirates are hitting the ball well and they’ll also be backed by strong pitching.
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
MLB Pick: Pirates
Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove (4-6, 3.41 ERA) has been a strong road bet, allowing no more than two runs in a road start, despite enduring at least six innings in each of them. He’s allowed three runs once away, but all three of the starts in which he allowed five or six runs came at home. Despite yielding negative units overall, Musgrove is yielding plus units away
Musgrove relies on five different pitches with between 11 and 35 percent frequency. His favorite is the fastball, which he relies on most in all scenarios, except for with two strikes against righties, where he features his slider, which, because of its horizontal movement, is more difficult for same-handed batters to perceive. Musgrove’s fastball has greatly improved from last season. He’s cut his opposing slugging against it from .615 to .278. He’s added a little velocity to it, avoids more frequently the middle of the plate, and adds variety to its location by placing it more often in the lowest right corner of the strike zone. Musgrove’s slider is an effective two-strike pitch because it possesses minimal vertical movement, which makes it harder for the batter to track because it spends less time hanging upward, and because he places it in the bottom row of the strike zone with 49% frequency.. His favorite whiff pitch, though, is the change-up, which averages eight miles per hour less than his fastball, thereby creating a change of pace that throws hitters off-balance, and further eludes their bat with good arm-side movement.
The Giants match up poorly against Musgrove, ranking 23rd in slugging against his five favorite pitches from righties. The only batter whom Musgrove has faced more than three times is Evan Longoria, who is 0-for-4 against him. The Giants have lost three of their last four—all home games— scoring one run in half of them.
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San Francisco’s Dereck Rodriguez (5-1, 2.34 ERA) hasn’t conceded many runs lately, but still shows worrisome form because he pitches to contact and yet his last four opponents achieved a hard contact rate against him above his season average, meaning that hitters are seeing his stuff well and making strong contact. He’s also often benefitted from facing lineups who match up poorly against him or who are decimated with injury.
The rookie Rodriguez throws five different pitches with 11 and 33 percent frequency. He relies on his fastball most of all and in almost every scenario. When a right-handed batter is ahead, he leans on his sinker, which is bad news given his recent struggles to start ahead of the count and because his sinker is his least effective pitch. A graver concern is the dip in velocity of all his pitches. For example, his fastball averages 92.96 mph on the season. But in his last four starts, it has yet to reach his number. Rookie starting pitchers often struggle with pacing. Eager to impress on their biggest stage, they bring their best stuff early and tend to fade later in the season. The signs of fading are slowly building for Rodriguez.
The Pirates match up well against him, ranking 10th in slugging against his pitches. Away from home, they rank fifth in the category. They’re also a strong road team overall, where they yield +3.2 units. Against a right-handed pitcher, they yield +9.4 units, compared to -7 against lefties. Watch for David Freese who’s batting .617 against Rodriguez’ pitches and over .300 in his past seven days. Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli, and Sterling Marte also slug above .500 against his pitches.
San Francisco hosts Pittsburgh to close a four-game series on Sunday afternoon. The Pirates are hitting the ball well and they’ll also be backed by strong pitching.
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
MLB Pick: Pirates
Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove (4-6, 3.41 ERA) has been a strong road bet, allowing no more than two runs in a road start, despite enduring at least six innings in each of them. He’s allowed three runs once away, but all three of the starts in which he allowed five or six runs came at home. Despite yielding negative units overall, Musgrove is yielding plus units away
Musgrove relies on five different pitches with between 11 and 35 percent frequency. His favorite is the fastball, which he relies on most in all scenarios, except for with two strikes against righties, where he features his slider, which, because of its horizontal movement, is more difficult for same-handed batters to perceive. Musgrove’s fastball has greatly improved from last season. He’s cut his opposing slugging against it from .615 to .278. He’s added a little velocity to it, avoids more frequently the middle of the plate, and adds variety to its location by placing it more often in the lowest right corner of the strike zone. Musgrove’s slider is an effective two-strike pitch because it possesses minimal vertical movement, which makes it harder for the batter to track because it spends less time hanging upward, and because he places it in the bottom row of the strike zone with 49% frequency.. His favorite whiff pitch, though, is the change-up, which averages eight miles per hour less than his fastball, thereby creating a change of pace that throws hitters off-balance, and further eludes their bat with good arm-side movement.
The Giants match up poorly against Musgrove, ranking 23rd in slugging against his five favorite pitches from righties. The only batter whom Musgrove has faced more than three times is Evan Longoria, who is 0-for-4 against him. The Giants have lost three of their last four—all home games— scoring one run in half of them.
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San Francisco’s Dereck Rodriguez (5-1, 2.34 ERA) hasn’t conceded many runs lately, but still shows worrisome form because he pitches to contact and yet his last four opponents achieved a hard contact rate against him above his season average, meaning that hitters are seeing his stuff well and making strong contact. He’s also often benefitted from facing lineups who match up poorly against him or who are decimated with injury.
The rookie Rodriguez throws five different pitches with 11 and 33 percent frequency. He relies on his fastball most of all and in almost every scenario. When a right-handed batter is ahead, he leans on his sinker, which is bad news given his recent struggles to start ahead of the count and because his sinker is his least effective pitch. A graver concern is the dip in velocity of all his pitches. For example, his fastball averages 92.96 mph on the season. But in his last four starts, it has yet to reach his number. Rookie starting pitchers often struggle with pacing. Eager to impress on their biggest stage, they bring their best stuff early and tend to fade later in the season. The signs of fading are slowly building for Rodriguez.
The Pirates match up well against him, ranking 10th in slugging against his pitches. Away from home, they rank fifth in the category. They’re also a strong road team overall, where they yield +3.2 units. Against a right-handed pitcher, they yield +9.4 units, compared to -7 against lefties. Watch for David Freese who’s batting .617 against Rodriguez’ pitches and over .300 in his past seven days. Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli, and Sterling Marte also slug above .500 against his pitches.
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