Giants vs. Padres: Best MLB Bets
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, September 13, 2020 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Johnny Cueto
San Francisco starter Johnny Cueto (2-0, 4.56 ERA) has command issues.
These issues are nothing new for Cueto since the 2016 season in which he performed so well that bettors may unfortunately still be inclined to assume that Cueto will pitch well in any given game.
This season, he’s walking 3.61 batters per nine innings and allowing 1.33 home runs per nine innings. He’s allowed a combined total of four home runs in his last three starts and he’s allowed at least one home run in three straight starts.
Cueto’s Weaknesses
One troubling aspect of Cueto’s game is his inability to start ahead of the count.
Currently, he’s throwing first-pitch strikes at a 54.2 percent rate. This rate is down seven percent from last year.
Statistically, speaking, pitchers are much more likely to succeed when they stay ahead of the count.
But Cueto is repeatedly starting off counts by putting himself in unpropitious situations.
I suspect that Cueto’s troubles derive from a lack of confidence in his pitches.
Pitching charts show that Cueto, with an 0-0 count, is more of a plate nibbler.
He’s less willing to throw more obvious strikes and more inclined to live on the boundaries of the strike zone in hope that the batter makes little or no contact with his pitches.
Confidence may be lacking for Cueto because opposing batters are still hitting his pitches so well.
His fastball is yielding a .340 BA and his opponents hit .333 against his sinker.
In addition to batting .292 against his sider, hitters are finding greater success lately against Cueto’s most successful pitches, his change-up and curveball.
Cueto mixes in all of these pitches frequently enough that he can’t avoid the trouble for him that they generate.
Cueto vs. Padres Batters
I like Padre batters today because they rank second in slugging .524 against Cueto’s three favorite pitches from righties.
Good hitting has been a regular feature in San Diego’s ongoing five-game win streak.
Four of those games saw the Padres accrue at least five runs. They also scored 14 runs in one game at home.
Look out for Manny Machado. He’s 7-for-20 (.350) with two doubles and a home run in his past seven days.
in his career facing Cueto, he’s 4-for-11 (.364) with two doubles and two home runs.
Garrett Richards
San Diego starter Garrett Richards (2-2, 4.50) has fairly misleading numbers because his high ERA is a reflection largely of one anomalous catastrophe.
Right now, though, he exhibits strong form. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) was under 3.00 in both of his last starts.
Likewise, his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home run) remained under 3.00 in both of those last starts.
Unlike Cueto, he’s showing stronger command by allowing fewer walks and home runs while finding the strike zone more consistently.
Richards likes to start off the count with his fastball, which is arguably his second-most successful pitch.
He is not afraid to throw this pitch in the middle parts of the plate because of how effective he is with it — opponents are batting .227 against it.
His fastball is distinct because its average spin rate is so high. It averages 2,617 RPM, thus making its location deceptive for batters.
So it’s easier for Richards to throw strikes because batters don’t punish him for it like they punish Cueto.
Richards’ slider is even better. It possesses more spin and he does a better job locating it. For example, 25 percent of its strikes land in the lowest right-corner of the strike zone.
With powerful velo and difficult, tight movement, his slider is a big whiff pitch and opponents hit .194 against it although they see it 35 percent of the time.
Richards vs. Giant Batters
Besides not matching up as well with Richards’ pitches, Giant batters are in an awful spot.
In addition to being notoriously weaker on the road, where they have a losing record and a .100 lower OPS (on-base plus slugging) than at home, their OPS is .98 lower daytime than nighttime.
Expect, among others, Evan Longoria to struggle. The Giants’ veteran is 3-for-14 (.214) with four strikeouts when facing Richards.
Trend
Also note that the Giants are 2-7 after losing one game. Their losing streaks tend to encompass multiple games.
The Verdict
Because the spot — at home and with San Fran coming off a loss — favors San Diego as does its matchup with Cueto, we want to go all the way with the Padres. A significantly better bullpen in terms of FIP also helps.
I recommend splitting one unit on this game by devoting half to the Padres first-half ML and half to the Padres full-game ML..
Best Bet: Padres First-Half ML & Padres Full-Game ML (Odds TBA)
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, September 13, 2020 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Johnny Cueto
San Francisco starter Johnny Cueto (2-0, 4.56 ERA) has command issues.
These issues are nothing new for Cueto since the 2016 season in which he performed so well that bettors may unfortunately still be inclined to assume that Cueto will pitch well in any given game.
This season, he’s walking 3.61 batters per nine innings and allowing 1.33 home runs per nine innings. He’s allowed a combined total of four home runs in his last three starts and he’s allowed at least one home run in three straight starts.
Cueto’s Weaknesses
One troubling aspect of Cueto’s game is his inability to start ahead of the count.
Currently, he’s throwing first-pitch strikes at a 54.2 percent rate. This rate is down seven percent from last year.
Statistically, speaking, pitchers are much more likely to succeed when they stay ahead of the count.
But Cueto is repeatedly starting off counts by putting himself in unpropitious situations.
I suspect that Cueto’s troubles derive from a lack of confidence in his pitches.
Pitching charts show that Cueto, with an 0-0 count, is more of a plate nibbler.
He’s less willing to throw more obvious strikes and more inclined to live on the boundaries of the strike zone in hope that the batter makes little or no contact with his pitches.
Confidence may be lacking for Cueto because opposing batters are still hitting his pitches so well.
His fastball is yielding a .340 BA and his opponents hit .333 against his sinker.
In addition to batting .292 against his sider, hitters are finding greater success lately against Cueto’s most successful pitches, his change-up and curveball.
Cueto mixes in all of these pitches frequently enough that he can’t avoid the trouble for him that they generate.
Cueto vs. Padres Batters
I like Padre batters today because they rank second in slugging .524 against Cueto’s three favorite pitches from righties.
Good hitting has been a regular feature in San Diego’s ongoing five-game win streak.
Four of those games saw the Padres accrue at least five runs. They also scored 14 runs in one game at home.
Look out for Manny Machado. He’s 7-for-20 (.350) with two doubles and a home run in his past seven days.
in his career facing Cueto, he’s 4-for-11 (.364) with two doubles and two home runs.
Garrett Richards
San Diego starter Garrett Richards (2-2, 4.50) has fairly misleading numbers because his high ERA is a reflection largely of one anomalous catastrophe.
Right now, though, he exhibits strong form. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) was under 3.00 in both of his last starts.
Likewise, his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home run) remained under 3.00 in both of those last starts.
Unlike Cueto, he’s showing stronger command by allowing fewer walks and home runs while finding the strike zone more consistently.
Richards likes to start off the count with his fastball, which is arguably his second-most successful pitch.
He is not afraid to throw this pitch in the middle parts of the plate because of how effective he is with it — opponents are batting .227 against it.
His fastball is distinct because its average spin rate is so high. It averages 2,617 RPM, thus making its location deceptive for batters.
So it’s easier for Richards to throw strikes because batters don’t punish him for it like they punish Cueto.
Richards’ slider is even better. It possesses more spin and he does a better job locating it. For example, 25 percent of its strikes land in the lowest right-corner of the strike zone.
With powerful velo and difficult, tight movement, his slider is a big whiff pitch and opponents hit .194 against it although they see it 35 percent of the time.
Richards vs. Giant Batters
Besides not matching up as well with Richards’ pitches, Giant batters are in an awful spot.
In addition to being notoriously weaker on the road, where they have a losing record and a .100 lower OPS (on-base plus slugging) than at home, their OPS is .98 lower daytime than nighttime.
Expect, among others, Evan Longoria to struggle. The Giants’ veteran is 3-for-14 (.214) with four strikeouts when facing Richards.
Trend
Also note that the Giants are 2-7 after losing one game. Their losing streaks tend to encompass multiple games.
The Verdict
Because the spot — at home and with San Fran coming off a loss — favors San Diego as does its matchup with Cueto, we want to go all the way with the Padres. A significantly better bullpen in terms of FIP also helps.
I recommend splitting one unit on this game by devoting half to the Padres first-half ML and half to the Padres full-game ML..
Best Bet: Padres First-Half ML & Padres Full-Game ML (Odds TBA)
