San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers: MLB Betting Tips and Predictions
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, July 26, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Dodger Stadium
Julio Urias In L.A.’s Rotation
Manager Dave Roberts already foresaw in February that Julio Urias should be a reliable rotation piece.
While he spent more time in the bullpen last year, this was due to injury-related issues that have ceased to exist.
Considered a very exciting prospect not too long ago, he has a 3.66 ERA in 28 career starts. His ERA is as high as it is mostly because he is atrocious in May.
In his exhibition contest on Monday, he lasted five innings against Arizona. He was pretty sharp as he allowed only one run.
Urias’ History Vs San Francisco
This is just the spot in L.A.’s rotation that Urias wants to find himself in because he has a superb career history against rival San Francisco.
He has accumulated 12 starts against the Giants, the most that he’s made against any single team. In those 12 starts, the southpaw has a 1.34 ERA against them.
Without looking at individual San Fran batters, this low ERA could be explained by multiple reasons, one of which being Urias’ level of readiness in a rivalry game.
Urias vs Active Giant Batters
Active San Francisco batters currently hold a .222 BA against Urias. This is a low figure, but it only comes after 27 at-bats.
Eight of those at-bats belong to Hunter Pence. Expect him to struggle today as he has one hit against Urias, who has struck him out three times.
So one good game from Giant batters could astronomically improve their active batters’ average against him.
In order to gauge whether we should expect this improvement, we should look at the current Giant batters.
It’s safe to say that San Francisco’s lineup is poorer than it should be since key personnel is missing.
Buster Posey opted out. Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria are not expected to return from injury before Thursday.
Austin Slater, who was already a question mark for the opening roster given performance concerns, is listed as day-to-day with a hip contusion.
Urias’ Pitching
Many of the Giants who have limited at-bats against Urias would not normally be facing Urias, although San Francisco’s lineup, which ranked 27th last year in team BA, is relatively anemic even when it’s healthy.
One may ask, then, what it will be like for a batter who has seen little of Urias to face him?
Urias favors a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches combine for 74 percent of his repertoire.
His average velocity is inflated by the higher number of relief appearances because pitchers throw harder when they don’t have to last so many innings.
But his fastball velocity is certainly above-average for a starter at 93 mph. He maintains this higher velocity in his fastball despite giving it an extreme amount of spin based on RPM.
Urias likes to keep his fastball high. So the spin gives it the appearance of rising action, which deceives batters as to their location.
His slider complements his fastball with its location because Urias likes to keep the former low.
As for sequencing, he’s comfortable throwing either pitch at any part of the count. So in addition to closely linking their respective vertical release points, he deceives batters by alternatively working backwards and forwards with his pitch sequencing.
Who Will Start For San Francisco?
Manager Dave Roberts has criticized San Francisco’s skipper Gape Kapler for announcing his starting pitcher late.
I would like to join Roberts in his criticism! Oddsmakers have yet to release their odds because we do not know for sure who will start for the Giants.
But Kapler has been relatively aggressive in terms of putting in his pitchers. With Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Tyler Anderson, and Logan Webb already seeing action, I think there’s only one reasonable option left.
I think Jeff Samardzija will start for the Giants (or he’ll at least throw the bulk of innings).
Even if I had no idea who would start for the Giants, I would still recommend placing a first-half San Francisco team total „under“ play at 5Dimes when 5Dimes releases its odds.
This play makes sense given Urias’ success against San Francisco and given the meager state of what is left of San Francisco’s lineup.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Active Dodger Batters
Active L.A. hitters have some solid power numbers against the Shark.
Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson, and A.J. Pollock all have slugging rates of .500 or higher in over 10 at-bats against the Shark.
Bullpen Comparison
Last year, L.A. had one of MLB’s top bullpens based on collective ERA.
This bullpen could be even better thanks to the addition of Blake Treinen. Treinen only threw eight pitches yesterday. So he should be fresh. Pedro Baez will also be fresh as he last pitched on Thursday.
Both Treinen and Baez have a career ERA of under 3.02 and both performed perfectly in their respective season debuts against the Giants.
Conversely, San Francisco’s bullpen is in trouble since closer Will Smith departed and its bullpen features sundry unreliable pieces based on recent ERAs.
While Tyler Watson is expected to be the main man in the backend of San Francisco’s bullpen, he threw 19 pitches yesterday.
The Verdict
L.A. is in a good spot as it will look to bounce back from its loss yesterday in order to avoid what would be an embarrassing series draw with its rival.
Urias has a great history against the Giants and I don’t expect a deteriorated Giant lineup to change that history.
Conversely, San Francisco’s pitching will contend with a lot of Dodger slugging power, which has produced 21 runs in three games combined.
For the above reasons, take Los Angeles on the run-line.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (odds TBA)
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, July 26, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Dodger Stadium
Julio Urias In L.A.’s Rotation
Manager Dave Roberts already foresaw in February that Julio Urias should be a reliable rotation piece.
While he spent more time in the bullpen last year, this was due to injury-related issues that have ceased to exist.
Considered a very exciting prospect not too long ago, he has a 3.66 ERA in 28 career starts. His ERA is as high as it is mostly because he is atrocious in May.
In his exhibition contest on Monday, he lasted five innings against Arizona. He was pretty sharp as he allowed only one run.
Urias’ History Vs San Francisco
This is just the spot in L.A.’s rotation that Urias wants to find himself in because he has a superb career history against rival San Francisco.
He has accumulated 12 starts against the Giants, the most that he’s made against any single team. In those 12 starts, the southpaw has a 1.34 ERA against them.
Without looking at individual San Fran batters, this low ERA could be explained by multiple reasons, one of which being Urias’ level of readiness in a rivalry game.
Urias vs Active Giant Batters
Active San Francisco batters currently hold a .222 BA against Urias. This is a low figure, but it only comes after 27 at-bats.
Eight of those at-bats belong to Hunter Pence. Expect him to struggle today as he has one hit against Urias, who has struck him out three times.
So one good game from Giant batters could astronomically improve their active batters’ average against him.
In order to gauge whether we should expect this improvement, we should look at the current Giant batters.
It’s safe to say that San Francisco’s lineup is poorer than it should be since key personnel is missing.
Buster Posey opted out. Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria are not expected to return from injury before Thursday.
Austin Slater, who was already a question mark for the opening roster given performance concerns, is listed as day-to-day with a hip contusion.
Urias’ Pitching
Many of the Giants who have limited at-bats against Urias would not normally be facing Urias, although San Francisco’s lineup, which ranked 27th last year in team BA, is relatively anemic even when it’s healthy.
One may ask, then, what it will be like for a batter who has seen little of Urias to face him?
Urias favors a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches combine for 74 percent of his repertoire.
His average velocity is inflated by the higher number of relief appearances because pitchers throw harder when they don’t have to last so many innings.
But his fastball velocity is certainly above-average for a starter at 93 mph. He maintains this higher velocity in his fastball despite giving it an extreme amount of spin based on RPM.
Urias likes to keep his fastball high. So the spin gives it the appearance of rising action, which deceives batters as to their location.
His slider complements his fastball with its location because Urias likes to keep the former low.
As for sequencing, he’s comfortable throwing either pitch at any part of the count. So in addition to closely linking their respective vertical release points, he deceives batters by alternatively working backwards and forwards with his pitch sequencing.
Who Will Start For San Francisco?
Manager Dave Roberts has criticized San Francisco’s skipper Gape Kapler for announcing his starting pitcher late.
I would like to join Roberts in his criticism! Oddsmakers have yet to release their odds because we do not know for sure who will start for the Giants.
But Kapler has been relatively aggressive in terms of putting in his pitchers. With Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Tyler Anderson, and Logan Webb already seeing action, I think there’s only one reasonable option left.
I think Jeff Samardzija will start for the Giants (or he’ll at least throw the bulk of innings).
Even if I had no idea who would start for the Giants, I would still recommend placing a first-half San Francisco team total „under“ play at 5Dimes when 5Dimes releases its odds.
This play makes sense given Urias’ success against San Francisco and given the meager state of what is left of San Francisco’s lineup.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Active Dodger Batters
Active L.A. hitters have some solid power numbers against the Shark.
Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson, and A.J. Pollock all have slugging rates of .500 or higher in over 10 at-bats against the Shark.
Bullpen Comparison
Last year, L.A. had one of MLB’s top bullpens based on collective ERA.
This bullpen could be even better thanks to the addition of Blake Treinen. Treinen only threw eight pitches yesterday. So he should be fresh. Pedro Baez will also be fresh as he last pitched on Thursday.
Both Treinen and Baez have a career ERA of under 3.02 and both performed perfectly in their respective season debuts against the Giants.
Conversely, San Francisco’s bullpen is in trouble since closer Will Smith departed and its bullpen features sundry unreliable pieces based on recent ERAs.
While Tyler Watson is expected to be the main man in the backend of San Francisco’s bullpen, he threw 19 pitches yesterday.
The Verdict
L.A. is in a good spot as it will look to bounce back from its loss yesterday in order to avoid what would be an embarrassing series draw with its rival.
Urias has a great history against the Giants and I don’t expect a deteriorated Giant lineup to change that history.
Conversely, San Francisco’s pitching will contend with a lot of Dodger slugging power, which has produced 21 runs in three games combined.
For the above reasons, take Los Angeles on the run-line.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (odds TBA)
