Cards-Giants „Under“ in the Cards With Ace and Jack Pitching
The Giants close a four-game home series against St. Louis at 4:05 ET. Bettors can profit from a pitching duel between San Francisco's ace Madison Bumgarner and St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.19 ERA) looks to bounce back from his last outing. He achieved a seven-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio, but surrendered a three-run homer in the fifth inning in what was his crucial error with two strikes. Mistakes are fairly common for the 22-year-old, but not with men on base. Although he allows too many homers, 70% of them have been solo shots, so that he still limits damage. Before his last outing, he had allowed one or zero runs in three of his past four starts.
Flaherty’s favorite pitch is the fastball. He throws it with 40% frequency and relies on it most in almost every scenario. Since April, its velocity has improved, so that he keeps it above 93 mph in every inning, and its spin rate creates more rising action, making it harder to hit. Even though he increased his fastball usage, opponents hit .164 against it in June, compared to .250 in April.
The slider is Flaherty’s other primary pitch—he throws it with 29% frequency. Its his favorite pitch with two strikes because he induces the most whiffs with it. He excels at keeping its location away from more hittable parts of the plate and on the border of the strike zone, so that batters struggle to make contact with it, even though they feel more impelled to swing with two strikes. He places his slider with 55% frequency in the lowest row of the strike zone.
Opponents slugged over .500 against Flaherty’s slider in all five of his starts in which he allowed three or four runs—against Pittsburgh (twice), Cleveland, Arizona, and Miami. Arizona and Cleveland massively overachieved in BA and SLG against it based on quality of contact. Miami slammed it because he left his slider in the middle region of the zone more than twice as often as he normally does. Pittsburgh ranks third against the slider. The Giants are the third-most overachieving team against the slider from righties and regressing statistically. They rank 21st against it in the past two weeks. If Flaherty overemphasizes his fastball as he has successfully done against teams who rank highly against the slider, the Giants rank 25th in slugging overall and in the past two weeks against the fastball from righties.
The „under“ is 9-2-1 in Flaherty’s starts, 6-0 when St. Louis is an underdog, and 5-0-1 away from St. Louis.
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Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 2.58 ERA) has been lights-out at home, where he’s allowed two runs in 21 innings. The „under“ is 5-1 in Bumgarner’s starts this season, 3-0 in his home starts.
Bumgarner relies primarily on his fastball and cutter. Even though he throws them with over 70% frequency, opponents are batting under .250 against both pitches. He varies their location, avoids the more hittable parts of the plate, and focuses their location on the fringes and corners of the zone. He also boasts a curveball with 50% frequency in the lowest row of the zone. He complements its good location with a change of pace and change of eye level after a high fastball. Opponents are batting .037 against it.
In the past month, the Cards rank 20th in slugging and 18th in average exit velocity against Bumgarner’s top two pitches from lefties even though they are metrically overachieving against them. In 98 career at-bats, four Cards have hit a homer off him, but two of them, Jose Martinez and Marcell Ozuna, are hitting under .200 in their past seven days. St. Louis’ other righties are 10/61 (.163) against the southpaw. Three of St. Louis’ last four opposing left-handed starters have shut them down, the one exception being Arizona’s Robbie Ray, who is notoriously bad at home.
The Giants close a four-game home series against St. Louis at 4:05 ET. Bettors can profit from a pitching duel between San Francisco's ace Madison Bumgarner and St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.19 ERA) looks to bounce back from his last outing. He achieved a seven-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio, but surrendered a three-run homer in the fifth inning in what was his crucial error with two strikes. Mistakes are fairly common for the 22-year-old, but not with men on base. Although he allows too many homers, 70% of them have been solo shots, so that he still limits damage. Before his last outing, he had allowed one or zero runs in three of his past four starts.
Flaherty’s favorite pitch is the fastball. He throws it with 40% frequency and relies on it most in almost every scenario. Since April, its velocity has improved, so that he keeps it above 93 mph in every inning, and its spin rate creates more rising action, making it harder to hit. Even though he increased his fastball usage, opponents hit .164 against it in June, compared to .250 in April.
The slider is Flaherty’s other primary pitch—he throws it with 29% frequency. Its his favorite pitch with two strikes because he induces the most whiffs with it. He excels at keeping its location away from more hittable parts of the plate and on the border of the strike zone, so that batters struggle to make contact with it, even though they feel more impelled to swing with two strikes. He places his slider with 55% frequency in the lowest row of the strike zone.
Opponents slugged over .500 against Flaherty’s slider in all five of his starts in which he allowed three or four runs—against Pittsburgh (twice), Cleveland, Arizona, and Miami. Arizona and Cleveland massively overachieved in BA and SLG against it based on quality of contact. Miami slammed it because he left his slider in the middle region of the zone more than twice as often as he normally does. Pittsburgh ranks third against the slider. The Giants are the third-most overachieving team against the slider from righties and regressing statistically. They rank 21st against it in the past two weeks. If Flaherty overemphasizes his fastball as he has successfully done against teams who rank highly against the slider, the Giants rank 25th in slugging overall and in the past two weeks against the fastball from righties.
The „under“ is 9-2-1 in Flaherty’s starts, 6-0 when St. Louis is an underdog, and 5-0-1 away from St. Louis.
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Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 2.58 ERA) has been lights-out at home, where he’s allowed two runs in 21 innings. The „under“ is 5-1 in Bumgarner’s starts this season, 3-0 in his home starts.
Bumgarner relies primarily on his fastball and cutter. Even though he throws them with over 70% frequency, opponents are batting under .250 against both pitches. He varies their location, avoids the more hittable parts of the plate, and focuses their location on the fringes and corners of the zone. He also boasts a curveball with 50% frequency in the lowest row of the zone. He complements its good location with a change of pace and change of eye level after a high fastball. Opponents are batting .037 against it.
In the past month, the Cards rank 20th in slugging and 18th in average exit velocity against Bumgarner’s top two pitches from lefties even though they are metrically overachieving against them. In 98 career at-bats, four Cards have hit a homer off him, but two of them, Jose Martinez and Marcell Ozuna, are hitting under .200 in their past seven days. St. Louis’ other righties are 10/61 (.163) against the southpaw. Three of St. Louis’ last four opposing left-handed starters have shut them down, the one exception being Arizona’s Robbie Ray, who is notoriously bad at home.
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