Giants vs. Bears: NFL Week 2 Predictions
New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago
Mitch Trubisky In 2019
When a team — as Chicago is — is favored by almost a touchdown, I want to have some degree of confidence in that team’s offense.
How can one expect a favored team to cover the spread if it seems likely to produce more than a negligible scoring output?
By many accounts, Chicago starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.
Last year, for example, NFL.com ranked him 30th in its QB Index.
One area where he struggled is with deep throws.
He ranked last in Expected Points Added on such pass attempts, completing 32 of 103 of them with four touchdowns and seven interceptions.
A somewhat similar way of putting this is to point out that he ranked seventh-to-last in the differential between Average Intended Air Yards and Completed Average Air Yards.
Trubisky In 2020
One may point to his Week 1 statistics and suggest that he has improved.
But keep in mind that his pass completion percentage was inflated by his performance in the fourth quarter when Detroit’s top three cornerbacks were out of the game due to injury.
All three of his passing touchdowns and 89 of his passing yards came when Detroit’s backup cornerbacks were unexpectedly trying to secure their team’s sizable lead.
Giants Secondary: Bradberry
Trubisky will not encounter in New York’s secondary anything like he encountered in the Lions’ fourth-quarter secondary.
Despite losing Eli Apple and the ongoing problems surrounding DeAndre Baker, the Giants have maintained a ferocious interest in stacking their cornerback position.
Former Panther cornerback James Bradberry was one crucial signing.
Bradberry’s signing has foolishly been labeled as „overrated“ by some.
It’s important to keep in mind that he played in the NFC South, which arguably has the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Twice a year, he had to encounter the likes of Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Mike Evans.
But he repeatedly limited the production of the top receivers that he shadowed.
In the six games in which he had to cover Jones, Thomas, and Evans, the most yards he allowed to any of them in a single game was 82 to Evans, who was also targeted 13 times.
Bradberry regularly limited opposing receivers in terms of targets caught and receiving yards.
One predominant ability of his is that he is one of the best at creating tight-window throws, meaning that he forces quarterbacks to try to fit their passes into smaller areas.
Allen Robinson
Sunday’s most crucial match-up will be that between Bradberry and Allen Robinson.
Trubisky is toast if he cannot rely on Robinson because he easily wants to rely on him more than on any other receiver.
Last year, he targeted the former Jaguar 69 more times than his second-most targeted wide receiver.
Bradberry vs. Robinson
Based on average yards of separation, Robinson is not a guy who easily gets himself very open.
So he is the kind of guy against which Bradberry will create sundry tight-window opportunities.
Where Robinson distinguishes himself is in his ability to succeed in contested catch situations.
This ability makes him comparable to Michael Thomas. The Saints’ star led the NFL In 2018 in contested catch rate and ranked fourth in the category last year.
When Bradberry shadowed Drew Brees’ favorite wide receiver twice last year, Thomas caught a combined total of five passes for 51 yards.
Because of Bradberry, Thomas’ worst game last season came in Week 17 against the Panthers.
So, while Bradberry holds his own against receivers like Mike Evans who get themselves open, he also thrives against elite wide receivers who rely on accruing contested catches.
While he’s known for his ability to recognize plays and anticipate passes, look for Bradberry’s physicality and ball skills at the point of attack to be prominent features in his success against Robinson.
Giants Ground Game
Chicago’s defense is vulnerable against the run particularly without defensive tackle Eddie Goldman.
Even with Goldman last year, the Bears’ defensive line ranked below average against the run as measured by Football Outsider’s metrics.
In their season opener, the Bears allowed 35 year-old Adrian Peterson to reach 93 rushing yards on 14 carries.
So expect a bounce-back effort from a determined Saquon Barkley. The Giants’ star is one of the NFL’s most elusive running backs, which helps him flourish even when his offensive line doesn’t do a good job.
Giants Pass Attack
New York’s offensive line is one of the higher-ranked ones against the pass after taking steps in terms of coaching, scheme, and personnel to improve in this respect during the offseason.
With more time to throw, on top of his relatively strong ability to avoid a pass rush and reset his feet while keeping his eyes downfield, Daniel Jones will be comfortable finding any one of the pass-catchers that helped him compete for the title, Rookie of the Year.
After ranking 22nd in adjusted sack rate in 2019, Chicago's Week 1 effort was likewise disappointing in terms of pass rush against what was supposed to be a vulnerable Lion offensive line particularly on the right side where the Lions started a rookie at right guard and a backup at right tackle.
The Verdict
Chicago lacks the necessary firepower to cover when favored. Trubisky will struggle and his top receiver won’t bail him out — nor will one of the league’s more meager (in terms of YPC) ground games.
The Bears’ defense is not the dominant one that people may cling to in their imagination. It remains vulnerable against the run and it won’t affect Daniel Jones’ comfort in the pocket where he’ll look for the likes of Saquon, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard.
After each of those three players caught six of their, at most, nine targets in Week 1, he promises to maintain chemistry with them.
As has been the rule in recent history, the Giants will, at worst, play the Bears close.
Best Bet: Giants +5.5 (-105) with Heritage
New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago
Mitch Trubisky In 2019
When a team — as Chicago is — is favored by almost a touchdown, I want to have some degree of confidence in that team’s offense.
How can one expect a favored team to cover the spread if it seems likely to produce more than a negligible scoring output?
By many accounts, Chicago starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.
Last year, for example, NFL.com ranked him 30th in its QB Index.
One area where he struggled is with deep throws.
He ranked last in Expected Points Added on such pass attempts, completing 32 of 103 of them with four touchdowns and seven interceptions.
A somewhat similar way of putting this is to point out that he ranked seventh-to-last in the differential between Average Intended Air Yards and Completed Average Air Yards.
Trubisky In 2020
One may point to his Week 1 statistics and suggest that he has improved.
But keep in mind that his pass completion percentage was inflated by his performance in the fourth quarter when Detroit’s top three cornerbacks were out of the game due to injury.
All three of his passing touchdowns and 89 of his passing yards came when Detroit’s backup cornerbacks were unexpectedly trying to secure their team’s sizable lead.
Giants Secondary: Bradberry
Trubisky will not encounter in New York’s secondary anything like he encountered in the Lions’ fourth-quarter secondary.
Despite losing Eli Apple and the ongoing problems surrounding DeAndre Baker, the Giants have maintained a ferocious interest in stacking their cornerback position.
Former Panther cornerback James Bradberry was one crucial signing.
Bradberry’s signing has foolishly been labeled as „overrated“ by some.
It’s important to keep in mind that he played in the NFC South, which arguably has the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Twice a year, he had to encounter the likes of Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Mike Evans.
But he repeatedly limited the production of the top receivers that he shadowed.
In the six games in which he had to cover Jones, Thomas, and Evans, the most yards he allowed to any of them in a single game was 82 to Evans, who was also targeted 13 times.
Bradberry regularly limited opposing receivers in terms of targets caught and receiving yards.
One predominant ability of his is that he is one of the best at creating tight-window throws, meaning that he forces quarterbacks to try to fit their passes into smaller areas.
Allen Robinson
Sunday’s most crucial match-up will be that between Bradberry and Allen Robinson.
Trubisky is toast if he cannot rely on Robinson because he easily wants to rely on him more than on any other receiver.
Last year, he targeted the former Jaguar 69 more times than his second-most targeted wide receiver.
Bradberry vs. Robinson
Based on average yards of separation, Robinson is not a guy who easily gets himself very open.
So he is the kind of guy against which Bradberry will create sundry tight-window opportunities.
Where Robinson distinguishes himself is in his ability to succeed in contested catch situations.
This ability makes him comparable to Michael Thomas. The Saints’ star led the NFL In 2018 in contested catch rate and ranked fourth in the category last year.
When Bradberry shadowed Drew Brees’ favorite wide receiver twice last year, Thomas caught a combined total of five passes for 51 yards.
Because of Bradberry, Thomas’ worst game last season came in Week 17 against the Panthers.
So, while Bradberry holds his own against receivers like Mike Evans who get themselves open, he also thrives against elite wide receivers who rely on accruing contested catches.
While he’s known for his ability to recognize plays and anticipate passes, look for Bradberry’s physicality and ball skills at the point of attack to be prominent features in his success against Robinson.
Giants Ground Game
Chicago’s defense is vulnerable against the run particularly without defensive tackle Eddie Goldman.
Even with Goldman last year, the Bears’ defensive line ranked below average against the run as measured by Football Outsider’s metrics.
In their season opener, the Bears allowed 35 year-old Adrian Peterson to reach 93 rushing yards on 14 carries.
So expect a bounce-back effort from a determined Saquon Barkley. The Giants’ star is one of the NFL’s most elusive running backs, which helps him flourish even when his offensive line doesn’t do a good job.
Giants Pass Attack
New York’s offensive line is one of the higher-ranked ones against the pass after taking steps in terms of coaching, scheme, and personnel to improve in this respect during the offseason.
With more time to throw, on top of his relatively strong ability to avoid a pass rush and reset his feet while keeping his eyes downfield, Daniel Jones will be comfortable finding any one of the pass-catchers that helped him compete for the title, Rookie of the Year.
After ranking 22nd in adjusted sack rate in 2019, Chicago's Week 1 effort was likewise disappointing in terms of pass rush against what was supposed to be a vulnerable Lion offensive line particularly on the right side where the Lions started a rookie at right guard and a backup at right tackle.
The Verdict
Chicago lacks the necessary firepower to cover when favored. Trubisky will struggle and his top receiver won’t bail him out — nor will one of the league’s more meager (in terms of YPC) ground games.
The Bears’ defense is not the dominant one that people may cling to in their imagination. It remains vulnerable against the run and it won’t affect Daniel Jones’ comfort in the pocket where he’ll look for the likes of Saquon, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard.
After each of those three players caught six of their, at most, nine targets in Week 1, he promises to maintain chemistry with them.
As has been the rule in recent history, the Giants will, at worst, play the Bears close.
Best Bet: Giants +5.5 (-105) with Heritage
