Giants vs. Athletics: MLB Top Bets
San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum
Johnny Cueto’s Improvement
As measured by sundry different statistics such as ERA, San Francisco starter Johnny Cueto (2-1, 4.78 ERA) is performing better than he did last season.
Right now, he is San Francisco’s most profitable pitcher, having generated 5.65 units for his backers thus far.
Cueto’s Stuff
Cueto does not produce the velocity in his pitches that he used to. But he’s still around because he’s found new ways to be effective.
Instead of relying so heavily on his fastball, he employs five different pitches with over 10 percent frequency.
In this same vein, Cueto is varying his pitch selection when there are two strikes in the count.
He’s walking fewer batters per nine innings and striking out more per nine innings because he uses his lessened predictability in order to finish off batters with greater frequency.
As is true generally, he’s throwing his fastball less often with two strikes.
One added point of emphasis for him is his change-up. It’s smart of him to throw this pitch more often in order to finish off batters because they’re hitting .188 against this pitch.
Besides the rather conventional degree to which it creates a change of pace, Cueto’s change-up possesses nice arm-side movement.
Perhaps most importantly, he locates this pitch well. While avoiding the middle of the plate, his change-up’s four most frequent strike locations by percentage are along the lowest quadrant on the strike zone.
Cueto vs. Oakland Batters: Misleading Numbers
Active Oakland hitters’ collective slugging rate against Cueto is as high as it is right now because Jake Lamb accounts for almost a third of their total at-bats.
Lamb should not be expected to hit any pitcher right now. His season BA remains under .200.
Even with Lamb’s success, active Athletic batters are hitting a promisingly low .221 with Cueto on the mound.
Look for Marcus Semien, for example, to struggle. He’s 0-of-5 facing Cueto.
Cueto’s Spot
Cueto is a superior daytime pitcher. His career ERA during the day is 2.80, which is nearly a full point lower than it is at night.
His success in day games contributes to the 3-0 record for the „under" in his day starts.
Frankie Montas
You should not worry about the surface numbers of Athletic starter Frankie Montas (3-4, 5.86 ERA).
Montas’ ERA is as high as it is because of his debacles on the road. Especially one sticks out where he gave up nine runs in 1.2 innings. On the road, his ERA is 8.46 and his FIP is 5.97.
In contrast, he’s performing well at home where his ERA is 3.05 and his FIP is 3.39.
Montas’ Stuff
Unlike Cueto, Montas likes to blast batters away.
His fastball and sinker combine for 63 percent of his arsenal and each pitch averages 96 mph.
If batters try to sit on one of his heaters, he can throw them off balance with a slider. Importantly, he is comfortable throwing his slider to both lefties and righties at any part of the count.
In addition to creating a significant change of pace, his slider is hard to track due to its lack of vertical movement. As pitching charts show, he also does a good job of keeping this pitch low in the strike zone.
Montas vs. Giants Batters
San Francisco ranks average in slugging rate against his pitches. But its overall ranking also accounts for its home games.
However, the Giants are awful both on the road and during the day. Their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .725 on the road compared to .854 at home.
Similarly, their daytime OPS is .697 compared to .832 at night.
While Oakland misses top slugger Matt Chapman, one of San Francisco’s top hitters — Mike Yastrzemski —could miss Sunday’s game with a calf injury.
The Verdict
Expect quiet bats as Cueto during the day and Montas at home each exploit the opposing, partly beleaguered lineup.
Best Bet: First-Five Under (Odds TBA)
San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum
Johnny Cueto’s Improvement
As measured by sundry different statistics such as ERA, San Francisco starter Johnny Cueto (2-1, 4.78 ERA) is performing better than he did last season.
Right now, he is San Francisco’s most profitable pitcher, having generated 5.65 units for his backers thus far.
Cueto’s Stuff
Cueto does not produce the velocity in his pitches that he used to. But he’s still around because he’s found new ways to be effective.
Instead of relying so heavily on his fastball, he employs five different pitches with over 10 percent frequency.
In this same vein, Cueto is varying his pitch selection when there are two strikes in the count.
He’s walking fewer batters per nine innings and striking out more per nine innings because he uses his lessened predictability in order to finish off batters with greater frequency.
As is true generally, he’s throwing his fastball less often with two strikes.
One added point of emphasis for him is his change-up. It’s smart of him to throw this pitch more often in order to finish off batters because they’re hitting .188 against this pitch.
Besides the rather conventional degree to which it creates a change of pace, Cueto’s change-up possesses nice arm-side movement.
Perhaps most importantly, he locates this pitch well. While avoiding the middle of the plate, his change-up’s four most frequent strike locations by percentage are along the lowest quadrant on the strike zone.
Cueto vs. Oakland Batters: Misleading Numbers
Active Oakland hitters’ collective slugging rate against Cueto is as high as it is right now because Jake Lamb accounts for almost a third of their total at-bats.
Lamb should not be expected to hit any pitcher right now. His season BA remains under .200.
Even with Lamb’s success, active Athletic batters are hitting a promisingly low .221 with Cueto on the mound.
Look for Marcus Semien, for example, to struggle. He’s 0-of-5 facing Cueto.
Cueto’s Spot
Cueto is a superior daytime pitcher. His career ERA during the day is 2.80, which is nearly a full point lower than it is at night.
His success in day games contributes to the 3-0 record for the „under" in his day starts.
Frankie Montas
You should not worry about the surface numbers of Athletic starter Frankie Montas (3-4, 5.86 ERA).
Montas’ ERA is as high as it is because of his debacles on the road. Especially one sticks out where he gave up nine runs in 1.2 innings. On the road, his ERA is 8.46 and his FIP is 5.97.
In contrast, he’s performing well at home where his ERA is 3.05 and his FIP is 3.39.
Montas’ Stuff
Unlike Cueto, Montas likes to blast batters away.
His fastball and sinker combine for 63 percent of his arsenal and each pitch averages 96 mph.
If batters try to sit on one of his heaters, he can throw them off balance with a slider. Importantly, he is comfortable throwing his slider to both lefties and righties at any part of the count.
In addition to creating a significant change of pace, his slider is hard to track due to its lack of vertical movement. As pitching charts show, he also does a good job of keeping this pitch low in the strike zone.
Montas vs. Giants Batters
San Francisco ranks average in slugging rate against his pitches. But its overall ranking also accounts for its home games.
However, the Giants are awful both on the road and during the day. Their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .725 on the road compared to .854 at home.
Similarly, their daytime OPS is .697 compared to .832 at night.
While Oakland misses top slugger Matt Chapman, one of San Francisco’s top hitters — Mike Yastrzemski —could miss Sunday’s game with a calf injury.
The Verdict
Expect quiet bats as Cueto during the day and Montas at home each exploit the opposing, partly beleaguered lineup.
Best Bet: First-Five Under (Odds TBA)
