Astros Will Dwarf Giants on Monday
San Francisco begins a two-game home series with the defending champs. Houston has been one of the best road bets all year and Monday night’s game presents no exception.
Astros at Giants
MLB Pick: Astros
San Francisco’s Dereck Rodriguez (5-1, 2.59 ERA) has made an immediate impact in his rookie season. But San Francisco might be relying on him too much. In his last start, he threw a career-high 112 pitches, which will likely affect his arm negatively.
Rodriguez throws his fastball most frequently. He relies on it most in all scenarios, especially with two strikes. But he mixes up his pitches well, only throwing his fastball more than 40% of the time when there are two strikes in the count or when a left-handed batter is ahead of the count. Rodriguez also mixes in a sinker, change-up, slider, and curveball with between 11 and 20 percent frequency. His sinker and slider are rather hittable. Opponents bat .340 against the former and .250 against the latter. He locates his sinker poorly, leaving it with 8.90% frequency in the middle of the plate. Although it does have strong movement, opponents exploit its poor location with high slugging rates against his sinker in the middle parts of the plate. Rodriguez’ slider is problematic because of its strong vertical movement, which lets it hang over the plate for batters to track and slam. Like his sinker, he leaves his slider elevated too often and opponents take advantage. Keep an eye out if Buster Posey will be allowed to be Rodriguez’ catcher. Rodriguez’ ERA is 5.59 in two games with Nick Hundley behind the plate.
His top three pitches in terms of opposing BA are the fastball, change-up, and curveball. In terms of facing teams that match up well against these pitches, though, he’s still largely untested. His strongest opponent was Washington, which ranks eighth in slugging against these three pitches from righties. They slammed him for five runs in 2.2 innings. Houston ranks fifth in the category and benefits from racing a Rodriguez enervated by a high pitch count in his previous outing. The Astros have figured out how to win and hit without injured star Jose Altuve. Watch for Tony Kemp, who bats .320 against righties and is hitting .313 in his last seven days.
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Houston’s Charlie Morton (12-2) has been difficult to touch. He’s yielded a hard contact rate below his season average in five consecutive starts and conceded two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts.
Morton relies on a fastball-sinker-curve combo. His fastball and sinker average 95-96 mph. His curveball plays well off those two pitches with a 15-16 mph velocity differential that throws hitters off balance. Morton distributes his pitches well, never relying on a single pitch too frequently in a scenario so that he stays unpredictable. His breaking pitches are elusive, particularly his curveball and sinker possess intense horizontal movement. He particularly emphasizes his curveball with runners in scoring position because it’s his best pitch. Opponents bat .128 against it. Its elusiveness allows him to keep it confidently within the strike zone, so he mostly throws it for a strike. He places it with 50% frequency in the lowest row of the strike zone and induces a whiff with 21% of his curveballs.
His two worst games came against teams that rank in the top eight in slugging against his three pitches from righties. San Francisco matches up poorly with Morton, ranking 19th in slugging against them.
Season numbers show the Giants to be a strong home team, but they haven’t been one lately. They’re 1-5 in their last six games in San Francisco. Conversely, Houston yields over 16 positive units on the road and has been crushing playoff contenders in their respective ballpark.
Houston boasts the best bullpen in terms of FIP and will secure victory.
San Francisco begins a two-game home series with the defending champs. Houston has been one of the best road bets all year and Monday night’s game presents no exception.
Astros at Giants
MLB Pick: Astros
San Francisco’s Dereck Rodriguez (5-1, 2.59 ERA) has made an immediate impact in his rookie season. But San Francisco might be relying on him too much. In his last start, he threw a career-high 112 pitches, which will likely affect his arm negatively.
Rodriguez throws his fastball most frequently. He relies on it most in all scenarios, especially with two strikes. But he mixes up his pitches well, only throwing his fastball more than 40% of the time when there are two strikes in the count or when a left-handed batter is ahead of the count. Rodriguez also mixes in a sinker, change-up, slider, and curveball with between 11 and 20 percent frequency. His sinker and slider are rather hittable. Opponents bat .340 against the former and .250 against the latter. He locates his sinker poorly, leaving it with 8.90% frequency in the middle of the plate. Although it does have strong movement, opponents exploit its poor location with high slugging rates against his sinker in the middle parts of the plate. Rodriguez’ slider is problematic because of its strong vertical movement, which lets it hang over the plate for batters to track and slam. Like his sinker, he leaves his slider elevated too often and opponents take advantage. Keep an eye out if Buster Posey will be allowed to be Rodriguez’ catcher. Rodriguez’ ERA is 5.59 in two games with Nick Hundley behind the plate.
His top three pitches in terms of opposing BA are the fastball, change-up, and curveball. In terms of facing teams that match up well against these pitches, though, he’s still largely untested. His strongest opponent was Washington, which ranks eighth in slugging against these three pitches from righties. They slammed him for five runs in 2.2 innings. Houston ranks fifth in the category and benefits from racing a Rodriguez enervated by a high pitch count in his previous outing. The Astros have figured out how to win and hit without injured star Jose Altuve. Watch for Tony Kemp, who bats .320 against righties and is hitting .313 in his last seven days.
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Houston’s Charlie Morton (12-2) has been difficult to touch. He’s yielded a hard contact rate below his season average in five consecutive starts and conceded two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts.
Morton relies on a fastball-sinker-curve combo. His fastball and sinker average 95-96 mph. His curveball plays well off those two pitches with a 15-16 mph velocity differential that throws hitters off balance. Morton distributes his pitches well, never relying on a single pitch too frequently in a scenario so that he stays unpredictable. His breaking pitches are elusive, particularly his curveball and sinker possess intense horizontal movement. He particularly emphasizes his curveball with runners in scoring position because it’s his best pitch. Opponents bat .128 against it. Its elusiveness allows him to keep it confidently within the strike zone, so he mostly throws it for a strike. He places it with 50% frequency in the lowest row of the strike zone and induces a whiff with 21% of his curveballs.
His two worst games came against teams that rank in the top eight in slugging against his three pitches from righties. San Francisco matches up poorly with Morton, ranking 19th in slugging against them.
Season numbers show the Giants to be a strong home team, but they haven’t been one lately. They’re 1-5 in their last six games in San Francisco. Conversely, Houston yields over 16 positive units on the road and has been crushing playoff contenders in their respective ballpark.
Houston boasts the best bullpen in terms of FIP and will secure victory.
