Giants vs Astros: MLB Baseball Picks
San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros
Monday, August 10, 2020 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Lance McCullers
Houston starter Lance McCullers is suffering a terrible start to this season that his current 9.22 ERA only begins to explain.
He is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than he ever has in his career.
Compared to last year, he’s walking 1.10 more batters per nine innings and allowing home runs at a rate twice as high as he did last year.
Batters are crushing his stuff. In his career, he allows hard contact 29.8 percent of the time. This year, that percentage is up to 45.7.
McCullers’ Deteriorated Stuff
McCullers has grown famous for his curveball.
In his last two seasons, his curveball was — by a large margin -- both his most frequent pitch by percentage and his most effective pitch based on opposing BA.
This year, his curveball frequency is down from 47.63 percent in his last season to 31.88 percent this season.
He is throwing his curveball less often because it is so ineffective. This season, it is yielding a .381 opposing BA and .952 opposing slugging rate.
His main issue with his curveball is that its velocity is almost three mph slower than it was in his last playing season. So this pitch is hanging around in the strike zone for more time.
Moreover, he is varying his curveball location less. He used to do a better job of throwing it to both sides of the plate and of avoiding the most middle part of the strike zone.
We can tell a similar story about what has now become his most frequent pitch, his sinker. He is throwing it with less velocity and opponents are producing vastly higher batting and slugging rates
against it than ever before.
Three of his sinker’s four most frequent strike locations by percentage are in one of the strike zone’s most middle spots, thus giving batters an easier time.
Conclusions About McCullers
2018 was McCullers’ last pitching season because he had to undergo Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow.
His current struggles derive likely from a mixture of attempting to recover from surgery and of having to refrain from competing for a year.
Either way, he is out of sorts. His radical change in vertical and release points could suggest that he has diverged from a more propitious delivery.
With his decline in velocity, his deviation from his famous curveball, and the rate at which he is being crushed, McCullers appears to be very far from regaining a positive professional footing.
McCullers vs Giants Batters
One of the teams (L.A. Angels) that crushed McCullers ranks 21st in BA against McCullers’ two favorite pitches from righties combined, which is lower than the Giants’ rank.
Even if the Giants ranked below 21st in this category, they are facing a broken pitcher who is not himself.
While righties are slugging over .500 against McCullers, which is already amazing, lefties are slugging .743 against him.
So watch out for Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco’s lefty who’s batting over .300 and slugging .679.
Logan Webb: False Impressions
On the surface, Logan Webb seems to be enjoying a great season. His 2.13 ERA suggest this impression.
But, his 4.10 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) suggests that he is performing, individually, no better than he did last year.
Right now, he is enjoying some luck (in a statistical sense). He is leaving 81.6 percent of baserunners stranded, which is a statistically unsustainable percentage.
Webb’s repertoire consists primarily in three pitches: his fastball, which he throws with somewhat more velocity than usual, his curveball, and his changeup. All three pitches combine to make up 85 percent of his arsenal.
His fastball is disastrous, largely due to poor location, as opponents are hitting .400 against it. His other two pitches aren’t as bad.
So, he’s allowing more baserunners because of his fastball and stranding more baserunners because of his curveball and change-up.
In particular, his change-up will be more responsible for his future downtick in LOB (left on-base) percentage.
This pitch remains extremely similar compared to what it was last year in terms of average velocity and average movement. Its average location is actually worse as he’s often leaving it in the middle of the plate.
Webb vs Astro Batters
Houston ranks fourth in slugging .558 against the fastball, curveball, and change-up from righties combined when at home.
Astro batters will pounce particularly on Webb’s fastball and change-up.
Look out especially for Carlos Correa, who’s currently hitting .373 and slugging .569.
The Verdict
Monday night presents a unique betting opportunity with McCullers remaining very far from himself.
Due to match-up reasons, I think that the overrated Webb will struggle against Astro batters.
So be sure to invest in a higher-scoring affair.
You could bet on the full-game over. San Francisco’s bullpen has been poor in terms of collective ERA, which should come as no surprise given its offseason transactions.
While Houston’s bullpen shows more collective ability, you’ll have to see whether its top relievers see much action on Sunday night.
I will be betting on the first-five over in order to focus on both starting pitchers.
Best Bet: First-Five Over (odds TBA)
San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros
Monday, August 10, 2020 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Lance McCullers
Houston starter Lance McCullers is suffering a terrible start to this season that his current 9.22 ERA only begins to explain.
He is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than he ever has in his career.
Compared to last year, he’s walking 1.10 more batters per nine innings and allowing home runs at a rate twice as high as he did last year.
Batters are crushing his stuff. In his career, he allows hard contact 29.8 percent of the time. This year, that percentage is up to 45.7.
McCullers’ Deteriorated Stuff
McCullers has grown famous for his curveball.
In his last two seasons, his curveball was — by a large margin -- both his most frequent pitch by percentage and his most effective pitch based on opposing BA.
This year, his curveball frequency is down from 47.63 percent in his last season to 31.88 percent this season.
He is throwing his curveball less often because it is so ineffective. This season, it is yielding a .381 opposing BA and .952 opposing slugging rate.
His main issue with his curveball is that its velocity is almost three mph slower than it was in his last playing season. So this pitch is hanging around in the strike zone for more time.
Moreover, he is varying his curveball location less. He used to do a better job of throwing it to both sides of the plate and of avoiding the most middle part of the strike zone.
We can tell a similar story about what has now become his most frequent pitch, his sinker. He is throwing it with less velocity and opponents are producing vastly higher batting and slugging rates
against it than ever before.
Three of his sinker’s four most frequent strike locations by percentage are in one of the strike zone’s most middle spots, thus giving batters an easier time.
Conclusions About McCullers
2018 was McCullers’ last pitching season because he had to undergo Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow.
His current struggles derive likely from a mixture of attempting to recover from surgery and of having to refrain from competing for a year.
Either way, he is out of sorts. His radical change in vertical and release points could suggest that he has diverged from a more propitious delivery.
With his decline in velocity, his deviation from his famous curveball, and the rate at which he is being crushed, McCullers appears to be very far from regaining a positive professional footing.
McCullers vs Giants Batters
One of the teams (L.A. Angels) that crushed McCullers ranks 21st in BA against McCullers’ two favorite pitches from righties combined, which is lower than the Giants’ rank.
Even if the Giants ranked below 21st in this category, they are facing a broken pitcher who is not himself.
While righties are slugging over .500 against McCullers, which is already amazing, lefties are slugging .743 against him.
So watch out for Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco’s lefty who’s batting over .300 and slugging .679.
Logan Webb: False Impressions
On the surface, Logan Webb seems to be enjoying a great season. His 2.13 ERA suggest this impression.
But, his 4.10 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) suggests that he is performing, individually, no better than he did last year.
Right now, he is enjoying some luck (in a statistical sense). He is leaving 81.6 percent of baserunners stranded, which is a statistically unsustainable percentage.
Webb’s repertoire consists primarily in three pitches: his fastball, which he throws with somewhat more velocity than usual, his curveball, and his changeup. All three pitches combine to make up 85 percent of his arsenal.
His fastball is disastrous, largely due to poor location, as opponents are hitting .400 against it. His other two pitches aren’t as bad.
So, he’s allowing more baserunners because of his fastball and stranding more baserunners because of his curveball and change-up.
In particular, his change-up will be more responsible for his future downtick in LOB (left on-base) percentage.
This pitch remains extremely similar compared to what it was last year in terms of average velocity and average movement. Its average location is actually worse as he’s often leaving it in the middle of the plate.
Webb vs Astro Batters
Houston ranks fourth in slugging .558 against the fastball, curveball, and change-up from righties combined when at home.
Astro batters will pounce particularly on Webb’s fastball and change-up.
Look out especially for Carlos Correa, who’s currently hitting .373 and slugging .569.
The Verdict
Monday night presents a unique betting opportunity with McCullers remaining very far from himself.
Due to match-up reasons, I think that the overrated Webb will struggle against Astro batters.
So be sure to invest in a higher-scoring affair.
You could bet on the full-game over. San Francisco’s bullpen has been poor in terms of collective ERA, which should come as no surprise given its offseason transactions.
While Houston’s bullpen shows more collective ability, you’ll have to see whether its top relievers see much action on Sunday night.
I will be betting on the first-five over in order to focus on both starting pitchers.
Best Bet: First-Five Over (odds TBA)
