MLB Parlay for Monday
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, August 8, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Alex Wood starts for the Giants tonight.
Relative to last year, Wood may seem to be performing worse this season based on his ERA.
However, his current, high ERA masks a respectable 3.51 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which indicates that he is actually performing well individually.
His current FIP is nearly identical to what it was last year.
Mostly, he has suffered from yielding a higher opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a better job than he did last year of minimizing hard contact off his pitches.
Wood's Sinker
The only thing that one can really criticize Wood for is his sinker, which is his most vulnerable pitch.
Some opponents have hit this pitch hard, thus causing him to give up a lot of runs.
However, the teams that have hit his sinker hard are reliably teams that are strong against this pitch.
For example, the Dodgers nailed Wood's sinker, and they rank second in slugging .588 against the sinker from lefties.
However, San Diego ranks 21st in slugging .364 against the sinker from lefties.
Therefore, one should not expect the Padres to take advantage of Wood's only significant area of vulnerability.
Wood's Other Pitches
Wood also throws a slider and changeup.
Combined, these two pitches make up 54.5 percent of his arsenal.
Opponents do not typically succeed against either pitch.
His slider is yielding a .354 slugging rate, and his changeup yields an even more superb .284 slugging rate.
Wood vs. Padre Batters
In particular, Wood merits optimism tonight because of his excellent history in Petco Park.
In six career starts here, Wood boasts a 1.56 ERA.
Moreover, the Padres rank 20th in slugging against Wood's pitches from lefties.
Plus, the Padres are anyhow already struggling to hit anybody.
They've scored a combined total of seven runs in their past four games.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Blake Snell starts for the Padres tonight.
Snell is reliable against anybody and everybody lately, thriving against tough opponents, such as the Mets and Twins, in his most recent starts.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts and in each of his last three starts.
The one exception came in Colorado, the toughest place for pitchers to perform in.
Snell vs. Giant Batters
Tonight, Snell looks eminently reliable because he matches up well against the Giants given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
San Francisco ranks 20th in slugging .369 against these pitches from lefties.
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, August 8, 2022 at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for New York?
Jameson Taillon starts for the Yankees tonight.
One might be blindly inclined to go against Taillon because his last start came against Seattle and it was a very bad one.
However, his last start actually helps explain why he merits trust tonight.
When starting two consecutive times against the same team Taillon has a great history of pitching well in the rematch even if he had struggled in the first game.
For example, on May 11, he performed well against Toronto after pitching well against this same team on May 3.
Most recently, on July 16, he allowed one earned run in six innings against the Red Sox after he allowed six earned runs in in his start against them on July 10.
Taillon in Seattle
Besides this rematch trend, which was also evident last year (against Toronto and Boston), faith in Taillon must emanate from his history in Seattle.
In his career, Taillon boasts a 1.38 ERA in two starts in Seattle.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Seattle starts Logan Gilbert tonight.
Gilbert's story is similar to Taillon's.
He just pitched poorly against the Yankees.
But most recently, last year, he bounced back against both Texas and Houston, starting each time against only one other team before he rebounded solidly against both teams.
Gilbert vs. Yankee Batters
New York has not been its usual self since the second half of the season began.
Gilbert can take advantage of this fact.
He throws, primarily, a fastball and slider, and the Yankees rank below average in slugging against Gilbert's pitches from righties in the second half of the season.
Best Bet: Giants/Padres under 8 at -115 & Yankees/Mariners under 7.5 at +100 at +274 odds with BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, August 8, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Alex Wood starts for the Giants tonight.
Relative to last year, Wood may seem to be performing worse this season based on his ERA.
However, his current, high ERA masks a respectable 3.51 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which indicates that he is actually performing well individually.
His current FIP is nearly identical to what it was last year.
Mostly, he has suffered from yielding a higher opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a better job than he did last year of minimizing hard contact off his pitches.
Wood's Sinker
The only thing that one can really criticize Wood for is his sinker, which is his most vulnerable pitch.
Some opponents have hit this pitch hard, thus causing him to give up a lot of runs.
However, the teams that have hit his sinker hard are reliably teams that are strong against this pitch.
For example, the Dodgers nailed Wood's sinker, and they rank second in slugging .588 against the sinker from lefties.
However, San Diego ranks 21st in slugging .364 against the sinker from lefties.
Therefore, one should not expect the Padres to take advantage of Wood's only significant area of vulnerability.
Wood's Other Pitches
Wood also throws a slider and changeup.
Combined, these two pitches make up 54.5 percent of his arsenal.
Opponents do not typically succeed against either pitch.
His slider is yielding a .354 slugging rate, and his changeup yields an even more superb .284 slugging rate.
Wood vs. Padre Batters
In particular, Wood merits optimism tonight because of his excellent history in Petco Park.
In six career starts here, Wood boasts a 1.56 ERA.
Moreover, the Padres rank 20th in slugging against Wood's pitches from lefties.
Plus, the Padres are anyhow already struggling to hit anybody.
They've scored a combined total of seven runs in their past four games.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Blake Snell starts for the Padres tonight.
Snell is reliable against anybody and everybody lately, thriving against tough opponents, such as the Mets and Twins, in his most recent starts.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts and in each of his last three starts.
The one exception came in Colorado, the toughest place for pitchers to perform in.
Snell vs. Giant Batters
Tonight, Snell looks eminently reliable because he matches up well against the Giants given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
San Francisco ranks 20th in slugging .369 against these pitches from lefties.
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, August 8, 2022 at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for New York?
Jameson Taillon starts for the Yankees tonight.
One might be blindly inclined to go against Taillon because his last start came against Seattle and it was a very bad one.
However, his last start actually helps explain why he merits trust tonight.
When starting two consecutive times against the same team Taillon has a great history of pitching well in the rematch even if he had struggled in the first game.
For example, on May 11, he performed well against Toronto after pitching well against this same team on May 3.
Most recently, on July 16, he allowed one earned run in six innings against the Red Sox after he allowed six earned runs in in his start against them on July 10.
Taillon in Seattle
Besides this rematch trend, which was also evident last year (against Toronto and Boston), faith in Taillon must emanate from his history in Seattle.
In his career, Taillon boasts a 1.38 ERA in two starts in Seattle.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Seattle starts Logan Gilbert tonight.
Gilbert's story is similar to Taillon's.
He just pitched poorly against the Yankees.
But most recently, last year, he bounced back against both Texas and Houston, starting each time against only one other team before he rebounded solidly against both teams.
Gilbert vs. Yankee Batters
New York has not been its usual self since the second half of the season began.
Gilbert can take advantage of this fact.
He throws, primarily, a fastball and slider, and the Yankees rank below average in slugging against Gilbert's pitches from righties in the second half of the season.
Best Bet: Giants/Padres under 8 at -115 & Yankees/Mariners under 7.5 at +100 at +274 odds with BetOnline
