Today's Plays Include a (+355) MLB Parlay
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 22, 2022 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Logan Webb starts for San Francisco tonight.
Webb has been a top-notch pitcher since the start of June.
In his last nine starts, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer eight times.
He allowed three runs in six innings in the one exception.
Moreover, he yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in seven of these nine starts.
Finally, Webb allowed a combined total of nine runs during this nine-game span.
His strong form has contributed to the fact that he's currently San Francisco's second-most profitable pitcher for bettors to back.
Why Is Webb So Good?
Webb is so effective, as measured by the rarity with which he allows runs, because he is hard to hit.
He rarely allows home runs and excels at inducing soft contact, which means that batters rarely make good contact off his pitches.
Most recently, he has induced soft contact at a 20-percent rate or higher in each of his last four starts.
While Webb doesn't get many strikeouts, he is great at inducing batters to chase his pitches out of the strike zone.
He accomplishes a high chase rate by locating his pitches well and adding strong movement to them.
By consistently placing high-movement pitches around the edges of the strike zone -- heat maps provide evidence that he does this -- he toys with the batter's perception, making him struggle to discern whether the pitch will land in the strike zone.
Webb's two most effective pitches, both of which he locates especially well, are his sinker and change-up.
They make up over 60 percent of his arsenal, and batters are swinging under .200 against both pitches.
Webb vs. Dodger Batters
In addition to his superb form, Webb is reliable today because of his excellent history in Dodger stadium.
He is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three career starts in the Dodgers' venue.
Who Starts for L.A.?
Tyler Anderson starts for the Dodgers.
It is true that Anderson has been a profitable pitcher to back.
But the Dodgers have scored seven runs or more in nearly half of the games in which both he started and the Dodgers won.
This season, Anderson is one of the MLB's leaders in run support.
However, the high level of run support that he expects will not be there for Anderson today given the fact that Webb is starting for San Francisco.
Anderson vs. Giant Batters
Anderson matches up poorly against San Francisco because he is a left-handed pitcher.
As measured by slugging rate, the Giants have the sixth best lineup against left-handed pitchers.
Among others, look out for Wilmer Flores who is slugging .818 in 11 career at-bats against Anderson.
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts Jose Urquidy tonight.
Overall, it is true, Urquidy has been profitable to back.
But division rivals, the teams most familiar with him, have had an advantage.
He is yielding negative units against them.
Urquidy's History vs. Seattle
Seattle is largely responsible for Urquidy being unprofitable to back against division rivals.
He is worth fading whenever he faces the Mariners.
This season, he is 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA in three starts against the M's.
Moreover, Urquidy has an awful career history in Seattle's venue.
His unreliability against this team thus extends beyond this season alone.
In his career, he is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in three career starts in Seattle's venue.
Six different Mariners slug well over .600 in at least five career at-bats against Urquidy.
Among others, look out for Ty France tonight.
France is 8-for-18 with an .833 slugging rate against Urquidy.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Seattle starts Marco Gonzales tonight.
Gonzales has been unprofitable to back this season because he hasn't been able to count on much run support.
However, Seattle is 6-1 when scoring over four runs in a game in which Gonzales starts.
Five runs is a low bar for this lineup tonight with Urquidy on the mound for Houston.
Gonzales vs. Houston Batters
Gonzales is particularly reliable tonight because of his track record against the Astros when they face him in Seattle.
Dating back to 2020, Gonzales has conceded to Houston three earned runs in 22.1 innings in Seattle.
Best Bet: Parlay Giants ML at +125 & Mariners ML at +102 at +355 odds with BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 22, 2022 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Logan Webb starts for San Francisco tonight.
Webb has been a top-notch pitcher since the start of June.
In his last nine starts, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer eight times.
He allowed three runs in six innings in the one exception.
Moreover, he yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in seven of these nine starts.
Finally, Webb allowed a combined total of nine runs during this nine-game span.
His strong form has contributed to the fact that he's currently San Francisco's second-most profitable pitcher for bettors to back.
Why Is Webb So Good?
Webb is so effective, as measured by the rarity with which he allows runs, because he is hard to hit.
He rarely allows home runs and excels at inducing soft contact, which means that batters rarely make good contact off his pitches.
Most recently, he has induced soft contact at a 20-percent rate or higher in each of his last four starts.
While Webb doesn't get many strikeouts, he is great at inducing batters to chase his pitches out of the strike zone.
He accomplishes a high chase rate by locating his pitches well and adding strong movement to them.
By consistently placing high-movement pitches around the edges of the strike zone -- heat maps provide evidence that he does this -- he toys with the batter's perception, making him struggle to discern whether the pitch will land in the strike zone.
Webb's two most effective pitches, both of which he locates especially well, are his sinker and change-up.
They make up over 60 percent of his arsenal, and batters are swinging under .200 against both pitches.
Webb vs. Dodger Batters
In addition to his superb form, Webb is reliable today because of his excellent history in Dodger stadium.
He is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three career starts in the Dodgers' venue.
Who Starts for L.A.?
Tyler Anderson starts for the Dodgers.
It is true that Anderson has been a profitable pitcher to back.
But the Dodgers have scored seven runs or more in nearly half of the games in which both he started and the Dodgers won.
This season, Anderson is one of the MLB's leaders in run support.
However, the high level of run support that he expects will not be there for Anderson today given the fact that Webb is starting for San Francisco.
Anderson vs. Giant Batters
Anderson matches up poorly against San Francisco because he is a left-handed pitcher.
As measured by slugging rate, the Giants have the sixth best lineup against left-handed pitchers.
Among others, look out for Wilmer Flores who is slugging .818 in 11 career at-bats against Anderson.
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts Jose Urquidy tonight.
Overall, it is true, Urquidy has been profitable to back.
But division rivals, the teams most familiar with him, have had an advantage.
He is yielding negative units against them.
Urquidy's History vs. Seattle
Seattle is largely responsible for Urquidy being unprofitable to back against division rivals.
He is worth fading whenever he faces the Mariners.
This season, he is 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA in three starts against the M's.
Moreover, Urquidy has an awful career history in Seattle's venue.
His unreliability against this team thus extends beyond this season alone.
In his career, he is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in three career starts in Seattle's venue.
Six different Mariners slug well over .600 in at least five career at-bats against Urquidy.
Among others, look out for Ty France tonight.
France is 8-for-18 with an .833 slugging rate against Urquidy.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Seattle starts Marco Gonzales tonight.
Gonzales has been unprofitable to back this season because he hasn't been able to count on much run support.
However, Seattle is 6-1 when scoring over four runs in a game in which Gonzales starts.
Five runs is a low bar for this lineup tonight with Urquidy on the mound for Houston.
Gonzales vs. Houston Batters
Gonzales is particularly reliable tonight because of his track record against the Astros when they face him in Seattle.
Dating back to 2020, Gonzales has conceded to Houston three earned runs in 22.1 innings in Seattle.
Best Bet: Parlay Giants ML at +125 & Mariners ML at +102 at +355 odds with BetOnline
