Capture Treasure With First-Half "Under" in Pirates-Giants Clash
San Francisco (8-12) at Pittsburgh (10-6)
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: 1H Under
San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 3.12 ERA) has responded to forecasters of his decline by having one of his strongest starts to a season in several years. In all four starts, he has lasted six or seven innings. He's conceded two or fewer earned runs in three of them.
The "experts" forecasting Bumgarner's decline pointed to a drop in strikeout rate, an increase in walks, and the lower spin rate and lower vertical drop of his curveball. This season, his command has been pin-point. He's allowing 1.38 walks per nine innings. His curveball still shows tricky negative vertical movement. Meanwhile, he vastly improved its spin rate, giving it 298 more RPM (revolutions per minute). Its higher spin rate has improved is deceptiveness with the result that opponents are slugging .182 against it.
The biggest reason for Bumgarner's strong start is the improvement of his fastball, which is one his favorite pitches in terms of frequency thrown. Opponents hit .299 against it last year. This year, its opposing BA is down to .199. He improved its quality. When he left his fastball down the middle last year, opponents took advantage with a .409 BA. This year, opponents are hitting only .286 against it when it lands down the middle. His fastball is able to survive bad location because its spin rate is in the 90th percentile, which makes its location trickier for the batter to perceive. Overall, though, his fastball location is effective. He places it most often on a border of the strike zone where its horizontal movement helps to toy with the batter's perception of whether it will land for a strike.
Out of all the ballparks in which he's accrued at least three starts, Pittsburgh's PNC Park is one of Bumgarner's favorite places to pitch in. In three career starts there, his ERA is 2.21. Active Pittsburgh batters have three combined hits in 26 at-bats. Those hits were singles and they struck out twice as often. Expect Starling Marte's slow start to the season to continue. He's 1-for-9 in his career against Bumgarner.
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Pittsburgh's Jordan Lyles (1-2, 0.82 ERA) is enjoying a positive beginning as a Pirate. He's allowed one run in 11 innings thus far.
One may be scared to trust Lyles because of his bad career statistics against the Giants. Although, the brunt of those bad stats comes from just one start in 2017 in which he surrendered seven runs in 3.2 innings. In 2017, he was a different pitcher. He relied more on his sinker and slider and less on his curveball and fastball. Generally, he was less comfortable varying his pitch location. This year, he also elevates his pitches a lot, which is important because opponents are doing poorly against his elevated pitches based on slugging, BA, and whiff rates.
In that start in 2017, he kept his location down in the zone. Also, he threw his fastball 43% of the time and his curveball 24.5% of the time, which was unusual for him. His best pitches weren't working for him and Giant batters slammed his fastball and curveball. Currently, his fastball and curveball exhibit greater effectivity. His curveball has become more elusive with its strong increase in both horizontal and vertical movement. He keeps it with 40% frequency in the two most middle spots in the lowest row of the strike zone. Also, he does a better job of keeping his fastball out of the middle of the zone. Opponents are batting .182 against his curveball and .083 against the fastball.
Lyles' numbers since 2017 against the Giants attest to his improvement as a pitcher. Last year, he allowed zero runs and one hit in 6.2 innings against them. San Fran's offense has anyhow been putrid. Its leading performer has been Steven Duggar with a .238 BA.
San Francisco (8-12) at Pittsburgh (10-6)
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: 1H Under
San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 3.12 ERA) has responded to forecasters of his decline by having one of his strongest starts to a season in several years. In all four starts, he has lasted six or seven innings. He's conceded two or fewer earned runs in three of them.
The "experts" forecasting Bumgarner's decline pointed to a drop in strikeout rate, an increase in walks, and the lower spin rate and lower vertical drop of his curveball. This season, his command has been pin-point. He's allowing 1.38 walks per nine innings. His curveball still shows tricky negative vertical movement. Meanwhile, he vastly improved its spin rate, giving it 298 more RPM (revolutions per minute). Its higher spin rate has improved is deceptiveness with the result that opponents are slugging .182 against it.
The biggest reason for Bumgarner's strong start is the improvement of his fastball, which is one his favorite pitches in terms of frequency thrown. Opponents hit .299 against it last year. This year, its opposing BA is down to .199. He improved its quality. When he left his fastball down the middle last year, opponents took advantage with a .409 BA. This year, opponents are hitting only .286 against it when it lands down the middle. His fastball is able to survive bad location because its spin rate is in the 90th percentile, which makes its location trickier for the batter to perceive. Overall, though, his fastball location is effective. He places it most often on a border of the strike zone where its horizontal movement helps to toy with the batter's perception of whether it will land for a strike.
Out of all the ballparks in which he's accrued at least three starts, Pittsburgh's PNC Park is one of Bumgarner's favorite places to pitch in. In three career starts there, his ERA is 2.21. Active Pittsburgh batters have three combined hits in 26 at-bats. Those hits were singles and they struck out twice as often. Expect Starling Marte's slow start to the season to continue. He's 1-for-9 in his career against Bumgarner.
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Pittsburgh's Jordan Lyles (1-2, 0.82 ERA) is enjoying a positive beginning as a Pirate. He's allowed one run in 11 innings thus far.
One may be scared to trust Lyles because of his bad career statistics against the Giants. Although, the brunt of those bad stats comes from just one start in 2017 in which he surrendered seven runs in 3.2 innings. In 2017, he was a different pitcher. He relied more on his sinker and slider and less on his curveball and fastball. Generally, he was less comfortable varying his pitch location. This year, he also elevates his pitches a lot, which is important because opponents are doing poorly against his elevated pitches based on slugging, BA, and whiff rates.
In that start in 2017, he kept his location down in the zone. Also, he threw his fastball 43% of the time and his curveball 24.5% of the time, which was unusual for him. His best pitches weren't working for him and Giant batters slammed his fastball and curveball. Currently, his fastball and curveball exhibit greater effectivity. His curveball has become more elusive with its strong increase in both horizontal and vertical movement. He keeps it with 40% frequency in the two most middle spots in the lowest row of the strike zone. Also, he does a better job of keeping his fastball out of the middle of the zone. Opponents are batting .182 against his curveball and .083 against the fastball.
Lyles' numbers since 2017 against the Giants attest to his improvement as a pitcher. Last year, he allowed zero runs and one hit in 6.2 innings against them. San Fran's offense has anyhow been putrid. Its leading performer has been Steven Duggar with a .238 BA.
