Here is the thing about this game it will come down to a few factors I believe:
Factors in covering this spread of -14 are as follows.
-Weather being cold, passing games are affected, running game is key
-Motivation for both teams
-Fear of injuries on both teams
-negative Momentum for Manning and the Giants
The Pats are hungry for a 16-0 season, but their real goal is the Super Bowl. Pats if available will try and knock out the Giants early and build a lead of 2 td's or 17 points. But that is what any team will do in any game. If two people fight one says I want to beat you up, but I will struggle and try to beat you in 10 minutes. Everyone says I am going to knock you out really fast and hard.
The Pats mindset in this game will be like normal in that on the road they want to score early and often and take the crowd out of this.
THe Giants do not play well off rest, as they are 1-3 on Bye Weeks with Coughlin. This team does not play well with rest, which is why the starters are playing. The last thing the Giants need is MANNING to have a bad performance tonight leading to him going into the playoffs with doubts.
Giants will run the ball, for 2 reasons- To make the game shorter and to not give ELI the opportunity to make mistakes. They will play a simpler game tonight, in an effort to shorten the game.
The Pats will be affected in cold weather conditions, passing the ball is tough and catching it is. But the real key is running, muscles tighten up, and receivers do not run very well in cold weather. Giants will run JACOBS at New England. New England also has changed and ran the ball more in cold weather, what this does is now limits the possessions of both teams and results in Field Goals also.
The Pats are not going in this game trying to make a statement, the statements are over now, they are trying to win the Superbowl and get this game but with no injuries. I think both NEAL and KASCUR on the O line are injured and are out.
Simply put the Giants do not cover at home when they are favorites, but when they are DOGS they cover especially at +14, WATCH OUT. This team plays to the level of the opposition. In fact one thing that is funny they do what is called a RVB- Reverse blow out- They get blown out when they are favorites and shock teams when they are dogs or everyone counts them out. This is a team that you don't want to count out, they choke when they are favored and when there is no pressure on them they win, it is as simple as that.
If the pats are tied in the 2nd Q, or Giants take ex a 3 point lead, you can forget about the Pats cover, the last thing on their mind will be covering, they will try to win by the slimmest of margins.
When you take a team +14 you usually get the Dolphins, the Rams, the 49'ers, and here you get the GIANTS , A playoff team oh wait and at home, oh wait and on PRIMETIME??
This is possible because of the fact that they think the Giants were going to mail this game in, and from NFL network they said COUGHLIN will not mail it in. Also it is possible because people will always take the super fancy, offensive team with the name players. Pats will have plenty of support, whether this line was -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, people were still going to bet the PATS. Public loves offense, and gets the feeling that a team is unstoppable, and always takes them.
I think at +14 we are going to see a lower scoring game, with the weather, the injury factor on both teams, the run game killing clock, and in 2nd half no team wants injuries also.
Situationally this is a horrible situation for the PATS, because really what do the have to play for, they don't want to go 16-0 and then come out flat in playoffs or get BRADY injured. I think BELLYDICK is smart enough to realize the real goal the Super Bowl.
Road, Cold, 2 lineman out, vs another playoff team, prime time does not equal a 14 point spread.
