Georgia vs. Tennessee College Football Picks for Week 11
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee
Avoiding Recency Bias
In order to properly assess the quality of Tennessee's defense, it's important to not attach excessive significance to the score of last week's game.
While it is true that Kentucky put up 42 points on the Volunteer defense, Tennessee suffered a significant disadvantage on defense that was a consequence of its offense's firepower.
Against Kentucky, the Volunteer offense had 11 drives. The first nine of them lasted fewer than three minutes, eight of those first nine lasted fewer than two minutes, and five of those first nine ran less than a minute off the clock.
Because of Tennessee's quick scoring -- its ability to score 45 points in 13 minutes and 52 seconds time of possession -- the Volunteer defense had to stay on the field for 46 minutes and eight seconds.
46 minutes is an extremely long time, one that will tire out any defense. Given this circumstance, it is unfair to think too harshly of the Volunteer defense.
Misleading Statistic
Another bad reason why one might underrate Tennessee's defense is the fact that it ranks 82nd nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
Georgia backers will want to seize on this fact in order to support a play on the Bulldogs because Georgia loves to run the ball.
But not so fast. The problem with Tennessee's run defense is not simply stopping the run. Its problem is stopping mobile quarterbacks
Florida, for example, put up 38 points on the Vols largely because Emory Jones ran for 144 yards -- by far a season high for him -- against them.
Like Jones, Ole Miss' Matt Corral loves to run and, also like Jones, he benefits from playing for a brilliant offensive mind that understands how to use deception in order to maximize the quarterback's running ability.
The Rebels, like Florida, covered the spread against Tennessee largely because of Corral's season-high 195 rushing yards.
Regarding the quality of Tennessee's rush defense, the story appears completely different when we look at running backs.
Ole Miss, for example, has a great running back in Jerrion Ealy, who is averaging 6.1 YPC this season. However, he mustered 19 yards on seven carries against the Vols. He never got going.
Similarly, Pittsburgh running back Israel Abanikanda is averaging 5.3 YPC this season, but produced a meager 3.6 YPC when facing the Volunteers.
This distinction -- between quarterback and running back success on the ground against Tennessee -- is crucial to note because Georgia lacks a Jones or Corral.
Spencer Bennett is good for the occasional 10-yard scamper. But he is not a threat on the ground. Georgia's other quarterback, JT Daniels, has -15 rushing yards this season.
Thus, despite being a run-heavy team -- the Bulldogs own the nation's 16th-highest run-play percentage -- Georgia lacks the offensive tools to damage the Volunteer run defense.
Georgia's Overrated Defense
Just to be clear, I am not saying that Georgia's defense is bad or anything like that. I am only offering resistance to the barrage of praise and hype incessantly emanating from sundry media organs.
Keep in mind that oddsmakers are asking Georgia to blow out Tennessee. Without scoring too easily via its run-heavy offense, the Bulldogs will need to really shut down Tennessee's offense.
While Georgia is famous for its run defense, Tennessee's offense presents a challenge because it is strong both on the ground and through the air.
The Bulldogs have great pass defense numbers, but they haven't proven that their pass defense is strong. In fact, countless instances of video footage plus consideration of opponents faced yield serious doubts about the abilities of Georgia's pass defense.
Consider that Auburn has the highest-ranked passing offense -- 45th in pass yards per game -- that the Bulldogs have faced this year.
Bo Nix rarely and barely eclipses 200 yards passing. He does not even like to throw downfield. Instead, he will complete easy horizontal throws in order to get teammates in space.
While he is a seminal part of the Auburn offense, his primary talents are as an improviser and playmaker.
Nix, who is hardly completing over 60 percent of his passes this season, is not a serious passing threat.
Despite facing lower-quality passers, Georgia has had many worrisome phases such as its several pass interference penalties against Clemson and its concession of four completed passes over 35 yards against South Carolina.
For Tennessee, Hendon Hooker is a legitimate threat. He is completing 69.4-percent of his pass attempts, is accomplishing 10.2 YPA, and has thrown 21 touchdowns to two interceptions.
Hooker has proven himself by accomplishing strong passing stats against highly-ranked pass defenses which were more able to limit big-name quarterbacks.
With several guys to throw to who are repeatedly capable of making big plays, Hooker will help give the Bulldog defense a unique challenge.
The Verdict
Tennessee has serious match-up benefits in this game, facing a Bulldog offense that lacks a mobile quarterback and confronting a Georgia defense that remains untested and doubtful against the pass.
Best Bet: Volunteers +20.5 at -108 with Heritage
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee
Avoiding Recency Bias
In order to properly assess the quality of Tennessee's defense, it's important to not attach excessive significance to the score of last week's game.
While it is true that Kentucky put up 42 points on the Volunteer defense, Tennessee suffered a significant disadvantage on defense that was a consequence of its offense's firepower.
Against Kentucky, the Volunteer offense had 11 drives. The first nine of them lasted fewer than three minutes, eight of those first nine lasted fewer than two minutes, and five of those first nine ran less than a minute off the clock.
Because of Tennessee's quick scoring -- its ability to score 45 points in 13 minutes and 52 seconds time of possession -- the Volunteer defense had to stay on the field for 46 minutes and eight seconds.
46 minutes is an extremely long time, one that will tire out any defense. Given this circumstance, it is unfair to think too harshly of the Volunteer defense.
Misleading Statistic
Another bad reason why one might underrate Tennessee's defense is the fact that it ranks 82nd nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
Georgia backers will want to seize on this fact in order to support a play on the Bulldogs because Georgia loves to run the ball.
But not so fast. The problem with Tennessee's run defense is not simply stopping the run. Its problem is stopping mobile quarterbacks
Florida, for example, put up 38 points on the Vols largely because Emory Jones ran for 144 yards -- by far a season high for him -- against them.
Like Jones, Ole Miss' Matt Corral loves to run and, also like Jones, he benefits from playing for a brilliant offensive mind that understands how to use deception in order to maximize the quarterback's running ability.
The Rebels, like Florida, covered the spread against Tennessee largely because of Corral's season-high 195 rushing yards.
Regarding the quality of Tennessee's rush defense, the story appears completely different when we look at running backs.
Ole Miss, for example, has a great running back in Jerrion Ealy, who is averaging 6.1 YPC this season. However, he mustered 19 yards on seven carries against the Vols. He never got going.
Similarly, Pittsburgh running back Israel Abanikanda is averaging 5.3 YPC this season, but produced a meager 3.6 YPC when facing the Volunteers.
This distinction -- between quarterback and running back success on the ground against Tennessee -- is crucial to note because Georgia lacks a Jones or Corral.
Spencer Bennett is good for the occasional 10-yard scamper. But he is not a threat on the ground. Georgia's other quarterback, JT Daniels, has -15 rushing yards this season.
Thus, despite being a run-heavy team -- the Bulldogs own the nation's 16th-highest run-play percentage -- Georgia lacks the offensive tools to damage the Volunteer run defense.
Georgia's Overrated Defense
Just to be clear, I am not saying that Georgia's defense is bad or anything like that. I am only offering resistance to the barrage of praise and hype incessantly emanating from sundry media organs.
Keep in mind that oddsmakers are asking Georgia to blow out Tennessee. Without scoring too easily via its run-heavy offense, the Bulldogs will need to really shut down Tennessee's offense.
While Georgia is famous for its run defense, Tennessee's offense presents a challenge because it is strong both on the ground and through the air.
The Bulldogs have great pass defense numbers, but they haven't proven that their pass defense is strong. In fact, countless instances of video footage plus consideration of opponents faced yield serious doubts about the abilities of Georgia's pass defense.
Consider that Auburn has the highest-ranked passing offense -- 45th in pass yards per game -- that the Bulldogs have faced this year.
Bo Nix rarely and barely eclipses 200 yards passing. He does not even like to throw downfield. Instead, he will complete easy horizontal throws in order to get teammates in space.
While he is a seminal part of the Auburn offense, his primary talents are as an improviser and playmaker.
Nix, who is hardly completing over 60 percent of his passes this season, is not a serious passing threat.
Despite facing lower-quality passers, Georgia has had many worrisome phases such as its several pass interference penalties against Clemson and its concession of four completed passes over 35 yards against South Carolina.
For Tennessee, Hendon Hooker is a legitimate threat. He is completing 69.4-percent of his pass attempts, is accomplishing 10.2 YPA, and has thrown 21 touchdowns to two interceptions.
Hooker has proven himself by accomplishing strong passing stats against highly-ranked pass defenses which were more able to limit big-name quarterbacks.
With several guys to throw to who are repeatedly capable of making big plays, Hooker will help give the Bulldog defense a unique challenge.
The Verdict
Tennessee has serious match-up benefits in this game, facing a Bulldog offense that lacks a mobile quarterback and confronting a Georgia defense that remains untested and doubtful against the pass.
Best Bet: Volunteers +20.5 at -108 with Heritage
