How About Some Parlay Action For Thursday Night College Football?
NC State vs Georgia Tech
Thursday, November 21, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Georgia Tech as one-point favorites.
Georgia Tech is alternating between covers and non-covers.
Conversely, oddsmakers are struggling to account for how bad the Wolfpack are. They’ve failed to cover their last four games and are currently suffering a 1-7 ATS run.
NC State’s Offensive Woes
In five of its six ACC games, NC State has scored fewer than 20 points. In the one exception, the Wolfpack scored a garbage-time touchdown to reach 24 points in a 21-point loss to Boston College.
Part of NC State’s problem is at quarterback, where Ryan Finley’s departure for the NFL left a void that it cannot fill.
The Wolfpack have tried out multiple different quarterbacks. They’re currently on their third, Devin Leary. Leary’s insufficient ability is evident in his sub-50 percent completion rate. He’s so inefficient even though he’s averaging only 5.6 YPA.
Film study reveals the slowness with which Leary makes decisions. Timing is crucial for a quarterback because it often makes the difference whether he can hit an open wide receiver or whether the defensive back can recover in time to make a play.
Leary also shows frequent inaccuracy and poor decision-making by failing to identify opposing coverage schemes and throwing it in places where his receiver can’t make a play perhaps because multiple defensive backs are in the area.
In these ways, Leary contributes to his team’s lack of scoring. NC State is failing to score much despite having faced the worst ACC defenses, Two of its opponents faced, Boston College and Louisville, rank bottom-two in the ACC in points allowed per game.
But Leary can’t carry sole responsibility. He gets little support from a run-game that is marred by poor run-blocking. Metrics like opportunity rate attest to NC State’s offensive line being one of the worst at helping open holes for its ball-carriers.
NC State relies, again, on a freshman at running back. Zonovan Knight has had bright spots despite bad run-blocking. But he hardly gets the opportunity to run the ball because NC State spends so much time behind.
In four of his six ACC games, still, he’s averaged 4.1 YPC or fewer, while in the two exceptions one big but ultimately fruitless run saved his YPC average.
Pass protection has also been an issue as a result of many pieces within the offensive line having trouble staying healthy. This deficiency hurts especially a freshman like Leary who is still processing things slowly.
Can Georgia Tech Score Enough?
To be sure, Georgia Tech’s offense is not Clemson’s. While NC State’s defense has allowed over 30 points in each of its last four games, it’s faced some of the most productive offenses in the conference.
Still, given the Wolfpack’s constant inability to score, Georgia Tech will only need about 20 points to win and cover.
Offensively, the Jackets have shown bright spots as they gradually adjust to a new offensive scheme. Two of their past four games have been positive: they’ve scored 28 points on October 19 in Miami and 28 points on November 9 in Virginia.
The two off games came against powerful Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh defenses that are in another league than the Wolfpack’s defense.
Georgia Tech loves to run the ball — it does so with the nation’s 32nd-highest frequency. Teams have lately been running more frequently against an NC State front seven that has seen six different linebackers get injured.
The Jackets are also respectable run-blockers as they rank 47th in opportunity rate. Jordan Mason is the team’s leading rusher. Against Virginia, he managed 4.9 YPC and in the team’s win against Miami he ran for 141 yards on 20 carries. In ACC play, Mason has three 100-yard rushing games.
Injury-wise, NC State has actually suffered the most in its secondary where three different cornerbacks suffered season-ending injuries and where it’s having former backup players at a given position switch positions.
Quarterback James Graham already exploited a depleted Virginia secondary when he threw for 229 yards on 15-for-22 passing. Despite not having his best receiver, the injured Jalen Camp, Graham has enjoyed some bright spots.
Conclusion
While NC State has been relentlessly bad on both sides of the ball, Georgia Tech is scoring against weaker defenses and is holding lesser offenses like Pitt’s to lower point totals.
The Jackets have fewer and less impactful injuries and have shown significant grounds for optimism — like against one of the conference’s top teams in Virginia and in Miami — while the Wolfpack are bankrupting their ATS backers.
Best Bet: Parlay: Yellow Jackets ML (-120) and Under 48.5 (per oddsshark?) at 5Dimes
NC State vs Georgia Tech
Thursday, November 21, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Georgia Tech as one-point favorites.
Georgia Tech is alternating between covers and non-covers.
Conversely, oddsmakers are struggling to account for how bad the Wolfpack are. They’ve failed to cover their last four games and are currently suffering a 1-7 ATS run.
NC State’s Offensive Woes
In five of its six ACC games, NC State has scored fewer than 20 points. In the one exception, the Wolfpack scored a garbage-time touchdown to reach 24 points in a 21-point loss to Boston College.
Part of NC State’s problem is at quarterback, where Ryan Finley’s departure for the NFL left a void that it cannot fill.
The Wolfpack have tried out multiple different quarterbacks. They’re currently on their third, Devin Leary. Leary’s insufficient ability is evident in his sub-50 percent completion rate. He’s so inefficient even though he’s averaging only 5.6 YPA.
Film study reveals the slowness with which Leary makes decisions. Timing is crucial for a quarterback because it often makes the difference whether he can hit an open wide receiver or whether the defensive back can recover in time to make a play.
Leary also shows frequent inaccuracy and poor decision-making by failing to identify opposing coverage schemes and throwing it in places where his receiver can’t make a play perhaps because multiple defensive backs are in the area.
In these ways, Leary contributes to his team’s lack of scoring. NC State is failing to score much despite having faced the worst ACC defenses, Two of its opponents faced, Boston College and Louisville, rank bottom-two in the ACC in points allowed per game.
But Leary can’t carry sole responsibility. He gets little support from a run-game that is marred by poor run-blocking. Metrics like opportunity rate attest to NC State’s offensive line being one of the worst at helping open holes for its ball-carriers.
NC State relies, again, on a freshman at running back. Zonovan Knight has had bright spots despite bad run-blocking. But he hardly gets the opportunity to run the ball because NC State spends so much time behind.
In four of his six ACC games, still, he’s averaged 4.1 YPC or fewer, while in the two exceptions one big but ultimately fruitless run saved his YPC average.
Pass protection has also been an issue as a result of many pieces within the offensive line having trouble staying healthy. This deficiency hurts especially a freshman like Leary who is still processing things slowly.
Can Georgia Tech Score Enough?
To be sure, Georgia Tech’s offense is not Clemson’s. While NC State’s defense has allowed over 30 points in each of its last four games, it’s faced some of the most productive offenses in the conference.
Still, given the Wolfpack’s constant inability to score, Georgia Tech will only need about 20 points to win and cover.
Offensively, the Jackets have shown bright spots as they gradually adjust to a new offensive scheme. Two of their past four games have been positive: they’ve scored 28 points on October 19 in Miami and 28 points on November 9 in Virginia.
The two off games came against powerful Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh defenses that are in another league than the Wolfpack’s defense.
Georgia Tech loves to run the ball — it does so with the nation’s 32nd-highest frequency. Teams have lately been running more frequently against an NC State front seven that has seen six different linebackers get injured.
The Jackets are also respectable run-blockers as they rank 47th in opportunity rate. Jordan Mason is the team’s leading rusher. Against Virginia, he managed 4.9 YPC and in the team’s win against Miami he ran for 141 yards on 20 carries. In ACC play, Mason has three 100-yard rushing games.
Injury-wise, NC State has actually suffered the most in its secondary where three different cornerbacks suffered season-ending injuries and where it’s having former backup players at a given position switch positions.
Quarterback James Graham already exploited a depleted Virginia secondary when he threw for 229 yards on 15-for-22 passing. Despite not having his best receiver, the injured Jalen Camp, Graham has enjoyed some bright spots.
Conclusion
While NC State has been relentlessly bad on both sides of the ball, Georgia Tech is scoring against weaker defenses and is holding lesser offenses like Pitt’s to lower point totals.
The Jackets have fewer and less impactful injuries and have shown significant grounds for optimism — like against one of the conference’s top teams in Virginia and in Miami — while the Wolfpack are bankrupting their ATS backers.
Best Bet: Parlay: Yellow Jackets ML (-120) and Under 48.5 (per oddsshark?) at 5Dimes
