Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo Camellia Bowl Best Bets: Buffalo to Achieve Upset
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at noon ET at Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama
Best Bet: Bulls +3.5 at -113 with BetOnline
A New Georgia Southern
There are many teams to keep up with, so I wouldn't blame you if you didn't know that Georgia Southern runs a new kind of option.
The Eagles are typically associated with their gun option offense.
This style made them uniquely run-heavy.
Last year, they owned the 10th-highest run-play percentage in the nation.
However, philosophically, they've changed themselves completely from last year to this one.
In the regular season, they owned the nation's third-highest pass-play percentage.
How to Hurt the Buffalo Defense
Georgia Southern's change in philosophy is frustratingly catastrophic with respect to this game because last year's Eagle squad was built perfectly to thrive against the Bull defense.
Any run-heavy team is well-prepared to score a lot against Buffalo.
The Bulls, overall, do not have a bad defense at all. They rank above-average nationally in scoring defense.
But they are specifically bad against the run.
Examples
Let's look at their last losses to see what I mean.
Their most recent defeat came against Kent State.
In that game, Kent State passers combined for 14 of 34 and 150 yards.
Those passing statistics are miserable, and they certainly don't explain why Kent State managed 30 points (including overtime).
However, Kent State also ran for 214 yards.
They were determined to run, as they ran 45 times, and they were rewarded for this determination.
Before losing to this team, Buffalo lost to Central Michigan.
The evidence here is more drastic: the Chippewas passed 17 times, completing eight of those attempts for 117 yards.
However, they impressively exceeded 300 rushing yards on 36 attempts.
Their success on the ground obviously does the most to explain the fact that they scored 31 points and won the game.
Counterexample?
Before losing to Central Michigan, the Bulls lost to Ohio.
Ohio did not, however, rely on running the ball in order to win.
Instead, Ohio's quarterback had an excellent game.
Does this example undermine my previous analysis?
The Bobcat quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, threw for 25 touchdowns to four interceptions on the season.
In terms of quarterback rating, he was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation.
Note that I never said that Buffalo could succeed defensively against very good quarterbacks.
All I said was that they could generally handle teams that were more reliant on passing the ball.
Georgia Southern's Quarterback
So, the question must be asked: is Georgia Southern's quarterback very good, or is he the caliber of passer that the Bulls are equipped to handle.
My answer is that he firmly belongs in the latter category.
Kyle Vantrease is not comparable in terms of quality to Ohio's Rourke.
Vantrease ranks 28 spots below Rourke in terms of quarterback rating.
If 28 spots don't seem like a lot, another consideration is utterly damning for Vantrease's prospect of success in this game.
Vantrease played for Buffalo. Last season, he was the Bulls' quarterback.
Buffalo thus has a huge advantage defensively.
The Bulls know Vantrease uniquely well -- they know what makes him comfortable and what makes him uncomfortable.
This circumstance is at least as important as the fact that their pass defense ranks well above-average nationally.
Georgia Southern's Defensive Outlook
Especially since the Eagles are favored, it is impossible to like them when one does not like their offense.
This is because their defense is awful
They ranked 130thin total defense and 117thin scoring defense.
To be exact, they allowed 34.6 points per game.
Buffalo presents a more balanced offense that already has had no problem exceeding 30 points against stiffer defensive competition.
Total Verdict
Buffalo is going to score so many points with its array of efficient running backs supporting a continually improving young Bull quarterback who will relish the softness of the defensive challenged posed by Georgia Southern.
The Eagles can add on some points, especially in garbage time, to help the game go "over."
For the above reasons, I recommend adding the "over" to your bets along with the Bulls ATS.
Best Bet: Over 66 at -110 with BetOnline
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at noon ET at Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama
Best Bet: Bulls +3.5 at -113 with BetOnline
A New Georgia Southern
There are many teams to keep up with, so I wouldn't blame you if you didn't know that Georgia Southern runs a new kind of option.
The Eagles are typically associated with their gun option offense.
This style made them uniquely run-heavy.
Last year, they owned the 10th-highest run-play percentage in the nation.
However, philosophically, they've changed themselves completely from last year to this one.
In the regular season, they owned the nation's third-highest pass-play percentage.
How to Hurt the Buffalo Defense
Georgia Southern's change in philosophy is frustratingly catastrophic with respect to this game because last year's Eagle squad was built perfectly to thrive against the Bull defense.
Any run-heavy team is well-prepared to score a lot against Buffalo.
The Bulls, overall, do not have a bad defense at all. They rank above-average nationally in scoring defense.
But they are specifically bad against the run.
Examples
Let's look at their last losses to see what I mean.
Their most recent defeat came against Kent State.
In that game, Kent State passers combined for 14 of 34 and 150 yards.
Those passing statistics are miserable, and they certainly don't explain why Kent State managed 30 points (including overtime).
However, Kent State also ran for 214 yards.
They were determined to run, as they ran 45 times, and they were rewarded for this determination.
Before losing to this team, Buffalo lost to Central Michigan.
The evidence here is more drastic: the Chippewas passed 17 times, completing eight of those attempts for 117 yards.
However, they impressively exceeded 300 rushing yards on 36 attempts.
Their success on the ground obviously does the most to explain the fact that they scored 31 points and won the game.
Counterexample?
Before losing to Central Michigan, the Bulls lost to Ohio.
Ohio did not, however, rely on running the ball in order to win.
Instead, Ohio's quarterback had an excellent game.
Does this example undermine my previous analysis?
The Bobcat quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, threw for 25 touchdowns to four interceptions on the season.
In terms of quarterback rating, he was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation.
Note that I never said that Buffalo could succeed defensively against very good quarterbacks.
All I said was that they could generally handle teams that were more reliant on passing the ball.
Georgia Southern's Quarterback
So, the question must be asked: is Georgia Southern's quarterback very good, or is he the caliber of passer that the Bulls are equipped to handle.
My answer is that he firmly belongs in the latter category.
Kyle Vantrease is not comparable in terms of quality to Ohio's Rourke.
Vantrease ranks 28 spots below Rourke in terms of quarterback rating.
If 28 spots don't seem like a lot, another consideration is utterly damning for Vantrease's prospect of success in this game.
Vantrease played for Buffalo. Last season, he was the Bulls' quarterback.
Buffalo thus has a huge advantage defensively.
The Bulls know Vantrease uniquely well -- they know what makes him comfortable and what makes him uncomfortable.
This circumstance is at least as important as the fact that their pass defense ranks well above-average nationally.
Georgia Southern's Defensive Outlook
Especially since the Eagles are favored, it is impossible to like them when one does not like their offense.
This is because their defense is awful
They ranked 130thin total defense and 117thin scoring defense.
To be exact, they allowed 34.6 points per game.
Buffalo presents a more balanced offense that already has had no problem exceeding 30 points against stiffer defensive competition.
Total Verdict
Buffalo is going to score so many points with its array of efficient running backs supporting a continually improving young Bull quarterback who will relish the softness of the defensive challenged posed by Georgia Southern.
The Eagles can add on some points, especially in garbage time, to help the game go "over."
For the above reasons, I recommend adding the "over" to your bets along with the Bulls ATS.
Best Bet: Over 66 at -110 with BetOnline
