*** Genius NFL Plays Week 5 ****

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The Capping Genius

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3-4-1. Week 4.
Season 16-10

Packers -10 over Vikings.Vikes are in for a bad ride in this one. Bridgewater has been solid but the Vikes still allowed 28 points at home LW against Atlanta. Vikes were given a couple Ints that prevented the Falcons from winning. This one is outdoors and that will be an advantage for GB at home. Running game for Minn is still suspect but and GB will show Bridgewater some new looks. Vikes wont be able to stop Rodgers. Expect at least 35 from the Pack on the scoreboard and half as much from the Vikes that they scored last week against ATL. .


Browns +2.5 over
Tennessee. Cleveland risky here before home revenge game next week against Pittsburgh. Tenn is due for a rebound, but Browns run game should keep Cleveland in it all day. Taking the points here.

Buffalo +7 over Detroit. Lions rolling along but still struggled with a Jets team that played poorly lw. Bills did the same thing in Houston and had 2 picks that cost them the game. Bills could win SU and I will add ML when available to this one.

Indy -3 over Ravens. Colts at home are the best team that Baltimore has faced so far this season. Ravens loss to Cincy was close and the Bengals were lucky to hit last on a 77yd td pass for the win. On the road the Ravens will find a harder time slowing down Luck and the Colts should be ready for this tilt.

Steelers -6.5 over Jacksonville. Pitt is looking like a loser after 4 (2-2) games but one loser facing another could make Pitt look better. Jags are in a terrible rut and I couldnt take them with 10. maybe Pittsburgh still has that Steeler luck when they win games because the opponent is purely bad. Hope Pittsburgh isnt looking ahead to the Browns next week, because if they are, they will lose their third straight in Cleveland..

Jets +7 over Chargers. Small number here a bit of concern as Chargers could roll on the Jets. Jets are minus 6 in turnovers (5 int's) and they have still been in every game in the losses. I dont know what Charger team will show up for a weaker opponent but they should score in every quarter imo. Last week they got 5 turnovers from the Jags. I am leary about this line though and the Jets will be going all out to win this. Lets hope the turnovers dont contribute to another Jets loss ATS. Jets had closed as 2 pt favorite last week against Detroit and i think that line tells me something about what the Oddsmakers think and what the public thinks are two different things. SD has a poor running game so far,

Patriots +1 over Cincy. Lots of reasons for this play on Pats. Too many to list, but here are a few. Revenge game from last meeting in The Queen City. Bengals have also had the benefit of 6 in turnovers the first three games this season. They are getting breaks that gave them wins. Patriots usually over achieve after a blowout when going home. Brady is far better than Big Red for Bengals. Bengals have A,J, Green and he is my only concern. Bengals only averaged 3.0 yds per rush in Balt and I dont see that improving here in Bean Town.,

Arizona +8 over Denver. Arizona is the most improved team this season so far. Could win division as they can play defense like a top team should. Broncos could be in for a long day as the Cards have a good passing game to go with a brutal defense. Cards have won 10 of last 12 regular season games and their two losses were both by 3-points each.

(MNF) Washington +8 over Seattle. Hawks travel 3 time zones and they were known to struggle last year on the road at times. Perfect spot here for a chance to get upset for the second time this season. Skins had 6 turnovers in the debacle against the Giants and that should give them a good reason to rebound at home. Hawks had the week off but Skins had 11 days as well.
 
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Agree with your thoughts on most of these... I do disagree on the Indy/Baltimore point though.. I don't think Indy even at home is as good as Cincinnati. Nice season so far. Good luck in week 5!
 
Agree with your thoughts on most of these... I do disagree on the Indy/Baltimore point though.. I don't think Indy even at home is as good as Cincinnati. Nice season so far. Good luck in week 5!

You may be right, but let's say this. Who would you take in a pk game between Cincy and Indy at Indy?
 
It should be noted that the fact GB is outdoors is no change for the Vikes as they are currently playing outdoors as well and beat ATL outdoors.
 
It should be noted that the fact GB is outdoors is no change for the Vikes as they are currently playing outdoors as well and beat ATL outdoors.

Yes I know. thats why I mentioned it. Green Bay has averaged 12 points in domes this season...

Thanks for reading. Maybe I could have been a bit more informative.
 
You may be right, but let's say this. Who would you take in a pk game between Cincy and Indy at Indy?

Probably Indy, but I'm not sure this has much to do with the point of which team (Indy/Cin) is better at home.

If you asked the same question with the game in Cincy instead of Indy, I'd go with Cin.
 
Probably Indy, but I'm not sure this has much to do with the point of which team (Indy/Cin) is better at home.

If you asked the same question with the game in Cincy instead of Indy, I'd go with Cin.

I agree.(Would probably play Cincy in Cincy) The comparison is that Baltimore on the road is facing a better team at Indy, than Cincy was in Baltimore. Baltimore shpuld have won the game they lost to Cincy. The Bengals won on a late 77yd td pass when the Ravens had a chance to win. So, The point is simply made for my reason to bet Indy, is that the Colts(at home) are a better team than the Bengals(on the road) in this situation. Ravens also had 2 turnovers that contributed to losing early.. Bengals only had 16 first downs.
Play Indy.

[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp"]
<thead>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="colspan: 2, align: left"]Cincinnati at 5:46 4th quarter
[/TH]
[TH]CIN[/TH]
[TH]BAL[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: even"]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]J.Tucker kicks 65 yards from BLT 35 to end zone, Touchback.[/TD]
[TD="class: bi, align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: bi, align: center"]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="width: 135px"]1st and 10 at CIN 20[/TD]
[TD](5:46) (Shotgun) G.Bernard left guard to CIN 23 for 3 yards (D.Smith).[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="width: 135px"]2nd and 7 at CIN 23[/TD]
[TD="class: bi"](5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Dalton pass deep right to A.Green for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.J. Green catches ball on deflection to himself at B25 and scores. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. A.Dalton pass to M.Sanu is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
[/TD]
[TD="class: bi, align: center"]23[/TD]
[TD="class: bi, align: center"]16[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody><thead>[TR="class: colhead"]
[TH="colspan: 4"]CIN DRIVE TOTALS: 2 plays, 80 yards, 0:48[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><thead>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="colspan: 2, align: left"]
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead>[/TABLE]





[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<thead>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: right"]CIN
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]BAL
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing 1st downs
[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing 1st downs
[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]1st downs from penalties
[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]4-14[/TD]
[TD]8-17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Plays[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]380[/TD]
[TD]423[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Yards per play[/TD]
[TD]5.9[/TD]
[TD]5.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Drives[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]301[/TD]
[TD]329[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]25-38[/TD]
[TD]35-62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]7.9[/TD]
[TD]5.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Sacks-Yards Lost
[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[TD]3-16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]79[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]3.0[/TD]
[TD]4.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Red Zone (Made-Att)[/TD]
[TD]0-2[/TD]
[TD]1-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]4-45[/TD]
[TD]3-29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Defensive / Special Teams TDs[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]30:30[/TD]
[TD]29:30[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I agree.(Would probably play Cincy in Cincy) The comparison is that Baltimore on the road is facing a better team at Indy, than Cincy was in Baltimore. Baltimore shpuld have won the game they lost to Cincy. The Bengals won on a late 77yd td pass when the Ravens had a chance to win. So, The point is simply made for my reason to bet Indy, is that the Colts(at home) are a better team than the Bengals(on the road) in this situation. Ravens also had 2 turnovers that contributed to losing early.. Bengals only had 16 first downs.
Play Indy.

Gotcha.

It's my fault, as, for some reason, I thought the Baltimore/Cincy game was in Cincy (based on Reds post, but I should have looked it up to double check). Your comparison makes a bit more sense now.

:shake:
 
I'm with you on Green Bay. Teddy has sat out of practice the last two days with a bum ankle. His mobility will be hindered. Every Thur night game this season has been a blowout with home faves going 3-1 so far.
 
I'm with you on Green Bay. Teddy has sat out of practice the last two days with a bum ankle. His mobility will be hindered. Every Thur night game this season has been a blowout with home faves going 3-1 so far.

Congrats C-MAN. Knowing that Bridgewater was broken, made this one easy. Lets keep it going. Appreciate your feedback.:cheers3:
 
CappingGenius, I don't think I'd say the Ravens should have won that game at home against Cincinnati. The Bengals kicked 5 FG's in the first half or the game would have been out of reach. I'm probably in the minority here, but I'd take the Bengals at Indy as well. I think the Bengals defensive front is a major mismatch for that Colts OL...

Basically just a difference of opinion on how good the Colts are vs. the Bengals I guess. I think the Colts are a below average team in general that just happens to have an amazing quarterback. They also play in a weak division.

Good luck this weekend. :shake:
 
CappingGenius, I don't think I'd say the Ravens should have won that game at home against Cincinnati. The Bengals kicked 5 FG's in the first half or the game would have been out of reach. I'm probably in the minority here, but I'd take the Bengals at Indy as well. I think the Bengals defensive front is a major mismatch for that Colts OL...

Basically just a difference of opinion on how good the Colts are vs. the Bengals I guess. I think the Colts are a below average team in general that just happens to have an amazing quarterback. They also play in a weak division.

Good luck this weekend. :shake:

Your opinions are well aken and anything can happen on any given Sunday. But here is where my thoughts come from.

Colts are far from avergae. As a matter of fact last year they had all kinds of injured players in the second half of the season. That alone reshapes a team and its ability to win. More importantly it would be hard to find an average team that beat the two Superbowl contestants and a runner up named San Fran in the same season. One more point would be that Luck hasnt reached maturity yet and should continue to get better.
The Ravens holding any team to 5 fg's is impressive and your are right that the Bengals could have blown them out if Big Red could put up some touchdowns instead of being forced to kick them fg's by the Ravens defense.
One more little point about weak divisions... I always look at a teams record out of the division as well, when I consider playing them. Indy has been battle teated against three of the best last year and should be up for the Ravens this week.

You will get your chance to take Cincy in Indy in two weeks as they are set for a rematch. Its a revenge game for the Colts.

Thanks for the feedback and bol this week to you as well.
 
Great thoughts on the Colts Genius. Ravens played out of their mind vs the Panthers and suddenly they are good enough to go win @ Indy? Just seems like a game Luck makes it happen to get the team over .500. Also agree on Jets, SD is painfully 1 dimensional now, I'm not a fan taking a favorite knowing full well the run game will struggle. Jets have the front 4 to get pressure on SD, and they've had a ton of time to stew about their blowout loss. GL this week

:shake:
 
Great thoughts on the Colts Genius. Ravens played out of their mind vs the Panthers and suddenly they are good enough to go win @ Indy? Just seems like a game Luck makes it happen to get the team over .500. Also agree on Jets, SD is painfully 1 dimensional now, I'm not a fan taking a favorite knowing full well the run game will struggle. Jets have the front 4 to get pressure on SD, and they've had a ton of time to stew about their blowout loss. GL this week

:shake:

Thanks. Lets hope we continue to win.

GL this weekend Genius :cheers3:

Same to you TD
 
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