general line value discussion

[SF_capper]

This is an interesting topic

how strongly do you consider line value?
I know many put stock into the line and will only play if it has value according to their numbers or their opinion
while others will play the spot no matter what.

Obviously playing the team no matter what sounds dumb, but sometimes the situation calls for it

example: tonight in detroit

I'd say according to others' power ratings and stuff the appropriate line was 6ish. the linemakers come out with 9, no doubt because of the situation Cleveland was in
I saw many back off the play because the line was too high for them, and the value was gone, but isn't that what Vegas would want? Its been said here that Vegas threw this high number to scare Detroit backers off and lure in Cleveland bets, which pretty much worked for some. ( I know Lebron missed the 2nd H, but 35 pt blowout!!)
which brings back to original question, how important is the line value?
or more, how many pts should you adjust to justify a situation?

 

[SF_capper]

another example could be Toronto tonight

Just last week, Memphis was -4 at home against Toronto

tonight, Toronto was -7.5 @ home against the same team

that's an 11.5 pt differential from home to home. By switching the golden rule of 3 pts per home court, according to last weeks number, the appropriate line would be Toronto -2, thus value on Memphis getting 7.5. Did the linemakers add 5.5 pts because they knew Toronto would dominate Memphis (only won by 12, but most of it was bs at the end by Memphis)

next time, if a line like this would come out, would Memphis be the play cuz of value? or do we read deeper into the lines and bet toronto cuz it seems thats what Vegas likes?

 

[SF_capper]

many more examples throughout the yr when a team is faved surprisingly a lot more than expected. I think (for some reason) one example that I've heard numerous times was when ATL was faved I think 7 against Charlotte

moreover, when you have a number that you believe the line should be in your head (say before the game you assume the correct line should be Team A -3) and the line comes out something way different than you thought (say Team A -8) do you bet where you believe there's value (Bet Team B +8) or look into it suspiciously and take the other side trying to be on Vegas's side (Team A -8)

discussion

 

[JPicks]

This is a great discussion starter. Way to tired to get into it now, but I have lots of thoughts on this.

 

[SF_capper]

Another exmaple is for NFL thursday night

Bator (on c*vers) said he expected to see Dallas -4.5. when it came out -6.5 he figured that he and the rest of the "public" had underestimated Dallas and that they probably are just that much better than GB. Shouldn't he have bet 6.5 saying that the fair line was -4.5? Instead he assumed he was wrong, and it seems he'll be lookin at Dallas - the points.

also, if this is true, then how can any1 ever say 'this line is a joke'. if it seems that way, shouldn't you bet the other side (the 'crazy' side)

 

[JPicks]

Ramble--Get back to your studies.

 

[RambleOn]

SF_Capper

When I first got into sports wagering as a newbie, I thought power rankings such as Sagarin were the most important thing out there. I would scour the lines every day, trying to find the value. Needless to say, it never worked.

I think where you are hitting a snag in your reasoning is that I don't think "Vegas likes" any team. You have to remember that Vegas is trying to put out a spread that is going to garner even action. If they put out a spread every game that matched up with the power rankings exactly, they would get beat repeatedly, because gamblers know how to look into other factors such as motivation, travel issues, weather, etc, etc. Take the Pistons tonight. Did they deserve to be 9+ favorites? Value-wise, probably not. But Vegas was smart enough to factor in other variables, and knew that putting out a line closer to Detroit's true power ranking line would garner too much action on Detroit. And, wouldn't you know it, Detroit killed.

Now, the extra points on a favorite line aren't always good to go against, because Vegas might has misinterpreted the value of the other factors that they have used to bump the line up. I can't think of an example of this but I know it has happened.

Sorry, this has probably been incoherent, because it's late and I'm about to go to bed. Just wanted to get my thoughts out there. I don't think there is a hard and fast rule about whether to take the "value" or not. Sometimes the value side wins, and other times it doesn't. I know from being a Saragarin line scourer that that is not the only thing you can look at. Sometimes its worth laying them, other times you gotta take 'em. :shake:

 

[RambleOn]

Jpicks - I'm about to go to bed. Got my last day of class for the semester tomorrow. Two more classes and 3 exams, and I'm onto my final semester of law school - woohoo!

:shake:

 

[SF_capper]

so overall, how important is the line? People always say, I'll likely be on Team X pending the line. I mean obviously getting the best line possible is important, but would a line difference be enough to switch your bet from team a to b? I mean I was taught once that power ratings are already calculated into the line that vegas throws out, just bet on the situation/motivation/etc. It sounds foolish to say I'll bet no matter the line, but maybe this is better? ie: I knew once I saw the spot that "no matter the line" I'd pound Detroit today, as well as many other spots so far this yr. Is that wrong?

 

[SF_capper]

thanks guys. keep it coming

 

[RambleOn]

No, it's not wrong. That's what I'm saying. You knew that Detroit was going to play over there "power ranking potential", for lack of a better term. Sometimes the line can't reflect how well a team is going to perform, because there is no way a line could be set that high.

I think a lot of people say "I'm going to be on Team X" is because no matter what, to that person that team will probably be undervalued. I know that last year, I played Davidson no matter the line almost every game, because linesmakers just weren't catching up with their talent. It has to do with determining if you think the linesmakers are factoring in enough public perception or not.

 

[RambleOn]

I guess overall I'm saying that line value really doesn't mean much to me.

 

[RambleOn]

And now I'm going to bed. :shake:

 

[SF_capper]

No, it's not wrong. That's what I'm saying. You knew that Detroit was going to play over there "power ranking potential", for lack of a better term. Sometimes the line can't reflect how well a team is going to perform, because there is no way a line could be set that high.

I think a lot of people say "I'm going to be on Team X" is because no matter what, to that person that team will probably be undervalued. I know that last year, I played Davidson no matter the line almost every game, because linesmakers just weren't catching up with their talent. It has to do with determining if you think the linesmakers are factoring in enough public perception or not.

agreed

hmm, say the linemakers made Detroit -14 today. I know it wouldn't happen, but say it did. Would you play Cleveland on value?

just realzied its a bad example cuz Bron went out, but still

 

[JPicks]

Heading to bed, but I'll comment on one thing.

mean obviously getting the best line possible is important, but would a line difference be enough to switch your bet from team a to b?

Unless you're an action junkie you shouldn't ever switch a bet because of a line being different unless the line is crazy off, which it never will be. For instance I liked the Raptors tonight hoping I would get a 5.5 or lower. Line came out at 8 and I immediately dismissed it. Most nights I probably would have still played it once it came back to 7 but either way I passed. If the line was -10 I'm still not considering Memphis. The situation was the reason I like Toronto in the first place so I'd be betting against my own situational anaylsis by taking memphis at + anything. Obviously if Memphis opened as a 14 point dog I'd have to be crazy to not look at betting them. Lucky for us we don't have to worry about getting #'s like that.

 

[SF_capper]

Heading to bed, but I'll comment on one thing.

mean obviously getting the best line possible is important, but would a line difference be enough to switch your bet from team a to b?

Unless you're an action junkie you shouldn't ever switch a bet because of a line being different unless the line is crazy off, which it never will be. For instance I liked the Raptors tonight hoping I would get a 5.5 or lower. Line came out at 8 and I immediately dismissed it. Most nights I probably would have still played it once it came back to 7 but either way I passed. If the line was -10 I'm still not considering Memphis. The situation was the reason I like Toronto in the first place so I'd be betting against my own situational anaylsis by taking memphis at + anything. Obviously if Memphis opened as a 14 point dog I'd have to be crazy to not look at betting them. Lucky for us we don't have to worry about getting #'s like that.

thank you. Thats the kind of response I was looking for

I find it demb how, more in NFL, people put so much stock into the line. Like, they the superbowl, people were saying play Chicago if you get 7.5, play indi if you get 6.5. Thats ridiculous, if you know the games gonna land on 7 then you should stay away, or go for the middle or something. Mostly just stay away

 

[SF_capper]

Heading to bed, but I'll comment on one thing.

mean obviously getting the best line possible is important, but would a line difference be enough to switch your bet from team a to b?

Unless you're an action junkie you shouldn't ever switch a bet because of a line being different unless the line is crazy off, which it never will be. For instance I liked the Raptors tonight hoping I would get a 5.5 or lower. Line came out at 8 and I immediately dismissed it. Most nights I probably would have still played it once it came back to 7 but either way I passed. If the line was -10 I'm still not considering Memphis. The situation was the reason I like Toronto in the first place so I'd be betting against my own situational anaylsis by taking memphis at + anything. Obviously if Memphis opened as a 14 point dog I'd have to be crazy to not look at betting them. Lucky for us we don't have to worry about getting #'s like that.

also, say the line came out Toronto -1.5. Would you pound it or be suspicious and stay away?
My guess would be you'd be suspicious, but play it for a unit. but wouldn't common knowledge say that if you wanted 5.5 and it came out 1.5 to pound it? Kinda interesting imo

 

[redbearde]

It's very tough to draw conclusions on the Cleveland/Detroit game's outcome because Lebron didn't finish it.

Do remember that typically the books set a line that is designed to bring in money on both sides.

for a 2 point shift, I personally would not change my wager to the other side. If I expected Pistons -6 and it opened at Pistons -14, then after checking to see how many injuries, food poisonings, and deaths in the family the dog team had, then I'd seriously consider taking the points. ...and I practically never take the points.

Also, if I find myself considering both sides of a game, then I quickly come to the conclusion that I should not bet that game. And I don't.

 

[slayer202]

I don't think you can really say for sure that a line has "value"

If there is a game where you think the line is way too short or way too big, Vegas probably has an explanation. Hell, even if it is just put out there to trap money, it still isn't going to happen every night. They are out to make money, and have been doing it for longer than some of us have been around, so you better believe they have it down to a science on when they should play around with lines to maximize profit.

I do still think that the line is a very important factor in betting a game. If you pick your spots correctly, staying away from the games with way too many angles that result in a toss up, then the line should help tell you how Vegas feels about the game. Last night with Detroit/Cleveland I wanted no part in either side. I like detroit, but they underachieve way too often. Anyway, once that line started to move, I took it at -8.5

About the switching sides thing, it depends on who you talk to i'm sure. I don't think it is smart though. If you are going to flop sides over a couple of points, not sure if you are going to fare too well over the long run, and you will sweat out lots of games and get moosed even more

 

[xpression syst_m]

too many people cap what has already been compensated for in the lines, the key to winning is to find the angles/matchups that are under the radar that will yield a minute edge over the long run

books set line to get even volume of action, there is only value if you have developed a system that rivals and surpasses theirs in producing actual and accurate PRs and score projections

 

[slayer202]

there is only value if you have developed a system that rivals and surpasses theirs in producing actual and accurate PRs and score projections

which IMO is not possible