T
The Capping Genius
Guest
4-4 Week 6.
Season 26-17.
Colts -2 over Bengals. Cincy is showing who they really are and I have spoke about them in recent weeks and how they are winning but not playing as good as their record. Now we have a huge revenge game with the Colts and Ive heard opinions that the Colts may not be as good as I think. There are also opinions out there that think the Bengals are solid. Not the case with me though.
This game opened at 2 at most places and at 3 -120 at 5Dimes. Ive been waiting for this game and anything under 5 was great to me so this one takes little risk, imo.
Story line yesterday on Fox was that the AFC north is the best division in the league. I disagree. The Bengals definitely arent even the best team in the division imo. Traveling to Indy (just a few blocks west) wont be any burden to travel, but winning, is another thing there. Just ask Baltimore. One home loss to Philly this year was not an indication of who the Colts are. They played 2 bad games to open the season and were 0-2. They are running on all cylinders now and this couldn't be a worse time for the Bengals after a tie with Carolina.
The Colts were beat LY in Cincy by 42-28. They had no Reggie Wayne. This time, the Bengals will face a better Colts team than a year ago and may be without A.J.Green at full speed if he plays at all.
Colts star receiver T.Y Hilton massed over 200 yard LW against Houston, so I cant see the Bengals coming up with a game plan to stop Luck and Company.
Browns -4 over Jerksonville. Jags are in a rebuilding mode and also doing player evaluations during games that count. Its like they are willing to get beat while seeing how good anyone is. In 5 games thay haven't scored over 17 points, yet they allow an average of 34. Do the math. Can they get everything fixed for the Browns? Cleveland is averaging 28 points per game on the road, when a year ago they averaged 17. Browns defense has awoken and should man handle Bortles with the pass defense. Watch for Ints by Bortles, against the Browns secondary.
Saints +3 over Detroit. New Orleans doesn't win many away but Saints should finally roll in a road game. Its in a dome and they are totally different playing inside. Brees can play like he's at home and the Lions are no where near good enough on defense to stop him. Lions have struggled at times and still haven't faced top level qb except for Rodgers when Green Bay was losing 2 of first 3. Saints should repeat winning ways over Lions as they have won the last 4 in a row. Bills beat Lions lw and if Calvin Johnson comes back with his bad ankle it may not be enough to win. Saints last three losses were all on the road and those were against Atlanta (then healthy), Cleveland (who was improved more than anyone knew) and Dallas (5-1). The Lions dont fall into that category.
Atlanta +7.5 (-135) over Baltimore. Falcons may be the best 2-4 team in the NFL and Baltimore is being taxed because of the blowout win over T-Bay last week. How Atl lost last 3 in a row to Chi, Giants and Minnesota is hard to believe, they are still an NFL team with potential and could surprise the Ravens today. Falcons defense has allowed an average of 29 points per game in the last three and need to get a better effort to cover this. Steve Smith is the main focus and if Falcons can slow him down they get the the cash.
San Diego -4 over Kansas City. Chargers won both games last year by 3 points each. What's new this year, is that the SD defense is vastly improved. In both games last year, they allowed 38 and 24 points. SD should play far better at home after looking ahead of Oakland last week.
A year go the Chiefs were undefeated and won every one of their 9 straight wins by turnovers. Now they are 2-3 and thats who they really are. One more KC game to recall is the win over NE 41-14 2 weeks ago. The Pats were - and still are - inconsistent and had 3 turnovers in that game that made the Chiefs look better than they are. The +4 line looks good for dog followers in this game because of that win. SD comes through regardless. In the three KC losses, they trailed every game at half time. Same thing will happen in this one.
Denver -6.5 over San Fran. Niners were outplayed for a while in St.
uis against a backup qb who basically showed inexperience and choked in the second half. Im willing to lay the wood with Payton in a game where the Broncos have the better offense and defense. I dont think that SF can move the ball enough while waiting for Manning to finish long drives and TOP. SF suffered badly in first half at Rams wont have the luxury of time of possession against Denver. Niners only had 17 first downs and that wont be good enough in Denver.
MNF
Houston +4 (-117) over Pittsburgh. Steelers are reeling. Their wins have been unimpressive to say the least. At 3-3 they should be 2-4 but were lucky to beat Cleveland. Tampa stunned them on a last second TD pass in the Steelers last home game. Houston is a better team than last year and being a road dog is expected, but if Pittsburgh was as good as a year ago they would be favored by nearly 6, imo. Houston lost 2 of 3 road games to Oakland(win), Dallas(loss) and Giants (loss). The Texans held the Cowboys to 20 points and kept it interesting at home with Indy in a 33-28 loss. Pittsburgh will have to play as good as those two to win - I don't think so...Neither do you!
Sides I would play if I was a gamblin man...Im not - LOL
Opinions only.
Minnesota. Bills are not as good as the number they are giving,
Miami. Bears couldnt handle Bills and Phins could do the same.
Tennessee. Skins are down for the count.
Green Bay. Carolina was exceptional lw in Queen City but the tundra is a whole other world.
Arizona. Raiders had their superbowl lw with Chargers and may not cover a game till they get to Seattle?.
Jets. 10.5 Points are ridiculous and this is when double digit dogs upset. Small ML +360, worth a try also.
Season 26-17.
Colts -2 over Bengals. Cincy is showing who they really are and I have spoke about them in recent weeks and how they are winning but not playing as good as their record. Now we have a huge revenge game with the Colts and Ive heard opinions that the Colts may not be as good as I think. There are also opinions out there that think the Bengals are solid. Not the case with me though.
This game opened at 2 at most places and at 3 -120 at 5Dimes. Ive been waiting for this game and anything under 5 was great to me so this one takes little risk, imo.
Story line yesterday on Fox was that the AFC north is the best division in the league. I disagree. The Bengals definitely arent even the best team in the division imo. Traveling to Indy (just a few blocks west) wont be any burden to travel, but winning, is another thing there. Just ask Baltimore. One home loss to Philly this year was not an indication of who the Colts are. They played 2 bad games to open the season and were 0-2. They are running on all cylinders now and this couldn't be a worse time for the Bengals after a tie with Carolina.
The Colts were beat LY in Cincy by 42-28. They had no Reggie Wayne. This time, the Bengals will face a better Colts team than a year ago and may be without A.J.Green at full speed if he plays at all.
Colts star receiver T.Y Hilton massed over 200 yard LW against Houston, so I cant see the Bengals coming up with a game plan to stop Luck and Company.
Browns -4 over Jerksonville. Jags are in a rebuilding mode and also doing player evaluations during games that count. Its like they are willing to get beat while seeing how good anyone is. In 5 games thay haven't scored over 17 points, yet they allow an average of 34. Do the math. Can they get everything fixed for the Browns? Cleveland is averaging 28 points per game on the road, when a year ago they averaged 17. Browns defense has awoken and should man handle Bortles with the pass defense. Watch for Ints by Bortles, against the Browns secondary.
Saints +3 over Detroit. New Orleans doesn't win many away but Saints should finally roll in a road game. Its in a dome and they are totally different playing inside. Brees can play like he's at home and the Lions are no where near good enough on defense to stop him. Lions have struggled at times and still haven't faced top level qb except for Rodgers when Green Bay was losing 2 of first 3. Saints should repeat winning ways over Lions as they have won the last 4 in a row. Bills beat Lions lw and if Calvin Johnson comes back with his bad ankle it may not be enough to win. Saints last three losses were all on the road and those were against Atlanta (then healthy), Cleveland (who was improved more than anyone knew) and Dallas (5-1). The Lions dont fall into that category.
Atlanta +7.5 (-135) over Baltimore. Falcons may be the best 2-4 team in the NFL and Baltimore is being taxed because of the blowout win over T-Bay last week. How Atl lost last 3 in a row to Chi, Giants and Minnesota is hard to believe, they are still an NFL team with potential and could surprise the Ravens today. Falcons defense has allowed an average of 29 points per game in the last three and need to get a better effort to cover this. Steve Smith is the main focus and if Falcons can slow him down they get the the cash.
San Diego -4 over Kansas City. Chargers won both games last year by 3 points each. What's new this year, is that the SD defense is vastly improved. In both games last year, they allowed 38 and 24 points. SD should play far better at home after looking ahead of Oakland last week.
A year go the Chiefs were undefeated and won every one of their 9 straight wins by turnovers. Now they are 2-3 and thats who they really are. One more KC game to recall is the win over NE 41-14 2 weeks ago. The Pats were - and still are - inconsistent and had 3 turnovers in that game that made the Chiefs look better than they are. The +4 line looks good for dog followers in this game because of that win. SD comes through regardless. In the three KC losses, they trailed every game at half time. Same thing will happen in this one.
Denver -6.5 over San Fran. Niners were outplayed for a while in St.
uis against a backup qb who basically showed inexperience and choked in the second half. Im willing to lay the wood with Payton in a game where the Broncos have the better offense and defense. I dont think that SF can move the ball enough while waiting for Manning to finish long drives and TOP. SF suffered badly in first half at Rams wont have the luxury of time of possession against Denver. Niners only had 17 first downs and that wont be good enough in Denver. MNF
Houston +4 (-117) over Pittsburgh. Steelers are reeling. Their wins have been unimpressive to say the least. At 3-3 they should be 2-4 but were lucky to beat Cleveland. Tampa stunned them on a last second TD pass in the Steelers last home game. Houston is a better team than last year and being a road dog is expected, but if Pittsburgh was as good as a year ago they would be favored by nearly 6, imo. Houston lost 2 of 3 road games to Oakland(win), Dallas(loss) and Giants (loss). The Texans held the Cowboys to 20 points and kept it interesting at home with Indy in a 33-28 loss. Pittsburgh will have to play as good as those two to win - I don't think so...Neither do you!
Sides I would play if I was a gamblin man...Im not - LOL
Opinions only.
Minnesota. Bills are not as good as the number they are giving,
Miami. Bears couldnt handle Bills and Phins could do the same.
Tennessee. Skins are down for the count.
Green Bay. Carolina was exceptional lw in Queen City but the tundra is a whole other world.
Arizona. Raiders had their superbowl lw with Chargers and may not cover a game till they get to Seattle?.
Jets. 10.5 Points are ridiculous and this is when double digit dogs upset. Small ML +360, worth a try also.
Last edited by a moderator:
