GEICO 500 Preview and Best Bet
NASCAR Cup Series: GEICO 500
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 2 p.m. ET (FOX) at Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama
Race Info
NASCAR’s Cup Series resumes on Sunday with the GEICO 500, which will take place at the famous Talladega Superspeedway.
In total, this event will require drivers to complete 188 laps.
There are three stages for this race.
Stage 1 will be complete after the first 60 laps. Stage 2 likewise requires 60 laps. Stage 3 consists in the remaining number of laps.
Just like in previous weeks, an entry list for the race has already been posted. So barring any unforeseen changes, we already know who will participate in the race.
Moreover, an official starting lineup gets released Wednesday morning. There is no qualifying for this event, just like there is no practice.
But, because NASCAR is using a formula to determine the starting lineup, we already had an idea of which drivers would be positioned to start the race among the top 10.
Track Info
Talladega Superspeedway is commonly known as “Dega” and is said to contain a curse.
In completing 188 laps, drivers will have completed 500.08 miles.
This is a large track where each lap is 2.66-miles long.
Talladega Superspeedway is known — justifiably — for witnessing high speeds and many crashes.
To understand why Talladega Superspeedway is a notoriously dangerous track, we need to understand why it encourages such great speeds.
The straightaways are very long, meaning that drivers go for a longer time without having to turn their cars.
When they turn their cars, the turns are supported by an extremely high amount of banking.
Turns 1 and 2 are banked at 33 degrees, turn 3 is banked at 32.4 degrees, and turn 4 is banked at 32.5 degrees.
Banking facilitates greater speeds by creating more momentum for drivers to collect.
Given the higher speeds, driver ability becomes more important.
Good driving is needed to maximize positive use of the air and to handle the relatively dangerous conditions.
Drivers To Avoid
One driver to avoid — and possibly to fade in match-up betting — is Kyle Busch.
Busch has yet to accomplish consecutive top-10 finishes since the first two races of the season back in February.
His history at Talladega does not offer any indication that he will perform well in any sense of the word.
In his last seven tries at this track, his best finish was 10th. He finished outside the top 20 four times.
Kevin Harvick is another driver to avoid investing in. His performances this season have not come close to mirroring last year’s in terms of quality.
In his last four races, for example, he finished ninth or worst.
Like Busch, his history at Talladega offers negligible promise for him.
In his last five races at this track, he finished 10th or worst. He finished outside the top 20 in three of those five races.
So like Busch, there is a relatively high potential for him to suffer a disastrous outcome.
Also be sure to stay away from Martin Truex Jr. He has yet to finish top-20 at this track in his last nine tries.
Like Busch and Harvick, Truex Jr. repeatedly suffers awful finishing positions at Talladega even when he benefits from a strong starting position.
My Guys
Because of the relatively high number of crashes that take place at this track, there is a greater possibility for luck or for bad luck to derail an otherwise promising driver’s chances by involving him in an accident.
Also because the potential payouts are so attractive, we want to invest in multiple drivers to win.
One guy who I like is Joey Logano. He has had recent success at Talladega, finishing fourth in 2019.
HIs recent history this season is also positive, showing his good form. He has accomplished three consecutive top-six finishes.
I also recommend investing in Denny Hamlin. This season, he is really nearing victory as he’s reeled off six consecutive top-four finishes.
Hamlin’s average finishing position at Talladega is similarly strong as Logano’s. He also has three straight top-four finishes at Talladega.
Best Bet: Hamlin +650 & Logano +900 at Bovada
NASCAR Cup Series: GEICO 500
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 2 p.m. ET (FOX) at Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama
Race Info
NASCAR’s Cup Series resumes on Sunday with the GEICO 500, which will take place at the famous Talladega Superspeedway.
In total, this event will require drivers to complete 188 laps.
There are three stages for this race.
Stage 1 will be complete after the first 60 laps. Stage 2 likewise requires 60 laps. Stage 3 consists in the remaining number of laps.
Just like in previous weeks, an entry list for the race has already been posted. So barring any unforeseen changes, we already know who will participate in the race.
Moreover, an official starting lineup gets released Wednesday morning. There is no qualifying for this event, just like there is no practice.
But, because NASCAR is using a formula to determine the starting lineup, we already had an idea of which drivers would be positioned to start the race among the top 10.
Track Info
Talladega Superspeedway is commonly known as “Dega” and is said to contain a curse.
In completing 188 laps, drivers will have completed 500.08 miles.
This is a large track where each lap is 2.66-miles long.
Talladega Superspeedway is known — justifiably — for witnessing high speeds and many crashes.
To understand why Talladega Superspeedway is a notoriously dangerous track, we need to understand why it encourages such great speeds.
The straightaways are very long, meaning that drivers go for a longer time without having to turn their cars.
When they turn their cars, the turns are supported by an extremely high amount of banking.
Turns 1 and 2 are banked at 33 degrees, turn 3 is banked at 32.4 degrees, and turn 4 is banked at 32.5 degrees.
Banking facilitates greater speeds by creating more momentum for drivers to collect.
Given the higher speeds, driver ability becomes more important.
Good driving is needed to maximize positive use of the air and to handle the relatively dangerous conditions.
Drivers To Avoid
One driver to avoid — and possibly to fade in match-up betting — is Kyle Busch.
Busch has yet to accomplish consecutive top-10 finishes since the first two races of the season back in February.
His history at Talladega does not offer any indication that he will perform well in any sense of the word.
In his last seven tries at this track, his best finish was 10th. He finished outside the top 20 four times.
Kevin Harvick is another driver to avoid investing in. His performances this season have not come close to mirroring last year’s in terms of quality.
In his last four races, for example, he finished ninth or worst.
Like Busch, his history at Talladega offers negligible promise for him.
In his last five races at this track, he finished 10th or worst. He finished outside the top 20 in three of those five races.
So like Busch, there is a relatively high potential for him to suffer a disastrous outcome.
Also be sure to stay away from Martin Truex Jr. He has yet to finish top-20 at this track in his last nine tries.
Like Busch and Harvick, Truex Jr. repeatedly suffers awful finishing positions at Talladega even when he benefits from a strong starting position.
My Guys
Because of the relatively high number of crashes that take place at this track, there is a greater possibility for luck or for bad luck to derail an otherwise promising driver’s chances by involving him in an accident.
Also because the potential payouts are so attractive, we want to invest in multiple drivers to win.
One guy who I like is Joey Logano. He has had recent success at Talladega, finishing fourth in 2019.
HIs recent history this season is also positive, showing his good form. He has accomplished three consecutive top-six finishes.
I also recommend investing in Denny Hamlin. This season, he is really nearing victory as he’s reeled off six consecutive top-four finishes.
Hamlin’s average finishing position at Talladega is similarly strong as Logano’s. He also has three straight top-four finishes at Talladega.
Best Bet: Hamlin +650 & Logano +900 at Bovada
