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Geico 500 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
How To Bet The Geico 500 At Legendary Talladega



NASCAR Cup Series Geico 500
Sunday, June 21 at 3 p.m. ET (FOX) at Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama




Talladega Superspeedway Is Special

Talladega Superspeedway is one of NASCAR’s most special racing venues for a few different reasons.

Firstly, its racing track is the NASCAR circuit’s largest as its oval-shaped course spans 2.66 miles.

In fact, Talladega’s venue is so big that you could literally fit all 14 SEC football stadiums inside of it.

Secondly, Talladega is one of two NASCAR tracks that are considered to be a superspeedway. The other one is Daytona.

Changes In Play

However, the speeds, exceeding 200 mph, at this track have also evoked considerable concern.

While the higher speeds certainly play a role, the tangible precipitator of safety concerns was a crash-filled Daytona 500 event in February. The Daytona 500 features NASCAR’s other designated superspeedway.

The idea is to reduce the maximum speeds a bit in order to avoid another crash-heavy event. For example, lower speeds should give drivers more time to react in order to circumvent a potentially dangerous scenario.

So, a bevy of changes will be implemented:

For starters, NASCAR will introduce a a narrowed taper spacer and reduced throttle body size, which will lessen the horsepower in the cars. This reduction should add about a second to each lap.

Moreover, the rear bumpers will receive slip tape and aero ducts will be removed in order to limit tandem drafting.

Many other minor alterations will be visible in each car and these should promote driver safety.

Moving on from safety concerns, Sunday’s race will not be preceded by a practice event, which had normally been the case. Sunday’s event will be a one-day event.

On a distinctly positive note, this venue will enjoy an increase in spectator numbers. About 5,000 supporters are expected to attend.

Race Info

The Geico 500 has its name because, in accumulating 188 laps and with each lap requiring 2.66 miles, drivers will have accomplished 500 miles by the race’s conclusion.

While the entry list is in, pit selection and starting lineup have not been determined. But, given the length of the race and its persistently higher speeds, I really don’t think that starting position should play a meaningful role in our capping.

I do think that the lack of practice time may hurt those drivers who do not have as much experience at this 2.66-mile, oval-shaped track.

Given the advantage that each car enjoys at this track, I am also disinclined to place too much emphasis on racing equipment.

My Betting Pick

Given what I said about equipment not meaning as much at this track, I am more focused on investing in somebody for his driving ability.

I want to back Joey Logano because of his positive, proven history at this track.

While Sunday’s race may proceed differently given the added speed-curtailing restrictions, I don’t think the speediness of the track is relevant to Logano because, at NASCAR’s other superspeedway, Daytona, he has a poor history.

History

If there were ever a time to back Logano, it must be on Sunday.

Measured by driver rating and average finishing position, Talladega is his favorite racing course.

Based on the same metrics, Logano’s recent history at this track is better than any of his competitor’s.

Since February of 2018, Logano has finished top-five three times at this track, including one win, in four tries.

In his last Talladega rendition, Logano was one of several unlucky victims of a pile-up initiated by Alex Bowman. Logano will bounce back.



Best Bet: Joey Logano To Win (odds TBA)
 
Anyone with more substance to add? There‘s less info available online when I have to do this so many days before the race :/
 
Not a ton for me today. Logano over Keslowski and Kyle over Harvick the only two I have locked in. Both -115.
Eyeing Almirola over Bowman, Stenhouse over Bowyer, and Buescher over Custer but haven’t pulled the trigger. Wasn’t a ton of matchups offered this week for some reason.
Enjoy y’all’s Father’s Day!
 
Played Logano over Chase and KB over Truex. Outrights with Blaney and Kurt Busch.

Things get interesting at the superspeedway tracks. The 'big one' is always in play and can lead to a more unpredictable outcome.

GL to all today.
 
Since I’m having some Monday afternoon beers, I added a couple plays:
Austin Dillon -130 over Matty D
Kenseth -130 over Bubba (hope this doesn’t make me racist)
Stenhouse -115 over Bowyer
Buescher -137 over Custer
 
That was a fun race. Lucky to come out ahead like $10 with the Kenseth, Dillon, and Busch luck, but I’ll take it. Come back for DH this weekend
 
I had Blaney and Kurt Busch outright. Lost Kyle Busch vs Truex H2H. Fun race.

Hoping DK offers more matchups for this weekends races. They didn't have several guys in any matchups this week. No Elliot, Truex, Blaney, Kurt, etc. Yeah - Kyle looked like he had a good car - just bad luck. Truex was bad from the get go. Just one of those things in Nascar. Congrats on the Blaney W though!
 
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