GB Future to win conference

[wizardofodd]

Still debating if I should hedge or not!


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Would you?

The line with these locals is Atlanta ML-220 ish.

Option A
So Risking $2200 would cover my initial bet only
If Atlanta wins, net 0
If GB wins, net 3450

Option B
Or Risk $4400 on Atlanta ML
If Atlanta wins, net 1000
If GB wins, net 1250

Option C
Fuk it, be a man, you bet it in the first place anyways, leave it alone


what would you do? :shake:

 

[KJ]

So many options to hedge, ATL team total is an option. Do you have live betting at your disposal?

 

[wizardofodd]

So many options to hedge, ATL team total is an option. Do you have live betting at your disposal?

I do have option for live betting, but $300 max..so I cant keep betting Atlanta $300 at a time, its $300 max on live for me

Team total isnt an option for hedging for me. I never play those anyways

 

[scarf31]

Interesting scenario, Wiz...if it's me...I want to have my cake and eat it too...

In other words, I would not go against what made me place the bet in the first place...the idea GB was going to get to the SB

But, I also am a big proponent of having guaranteeing myself a win or at the very worst a freeroll...

So I am definitely in favor of option A...what you've set up is a essentially a GB win reducing your odds to +345 with no risk of losing a dime. But at the same time you get the same bet you wanted initially.

GL with whatever you decide my friend. :cheers3:

 

[KJ]

Gotcha, just think if ATL wins they hit the team total.

I have thought, and still think that GB makes the SB so I might not be giving and worthy advice, but you're smart enough to figure it out, you've shown that.

 

[wizardofodd]

Interesting scenario, Wiz...if it's me...I want to have my cake and eat it too...

In other words, I would not go against what made me place the bet in the first place...the idea GB was going to get to the SB

But, I also am a big proponent of having guaranteeing myself a win or at the very worst a freeroll...

So I am definitely in favor of option A...what you've set up is a essentially a GB win reducing your odds to +345 with no risk of losing a dime. But at the same time you get the same bet you wanted initially.

GL with whatever you decide my friend. :cheers3:

Agree.

Def leaning option A. But then again, my odds are down to +345 from +565, decisions decisions..

The only reason I'm leaning option C also is because I'm up (23 units) to cover the 10 units this week, so i'll be rolling that 10 units with house money. Now would that change your mind to go option C ?

 

[KJ]

I would not pay attention to public/line moves etc on this one, it opened 4.5 and will hover between the magic 4 and 6 numbers which are irrelevant numbers to me...play your gut. Green Bay are gonna be a pretty big public dog...news flash, public has been killing it.

 

[scarf31]

Agree.

Def leaning option A. But then again, my odds are down to +345 from +565, decisions decisions..

The only reason I'm leaning option C also is because I'm up (23 units) to cover the 10 units this week, so i'll be rolling that 10 units with house money. Now would that change your mind to go option C ?

There's really no wrong move, to be honest. But I absolutely love the idea of the "nothing to lose" theory (literally).

So me personally, me mindset would be if GB loses I'm up 23 units...if GB wins I'm up 23 units plus the winnings from the hedge...and my odds with the hedge are higher (+345) than the +330 I made the 2nd $500 bet on.

But I am more a conservative bettor...plus the company I own is all about crunching numbers, so I play these scenarios in my head all day long...lol

So I'd still stick with A, but anyone who disagreed with my logic I can't fight with at all...you're in an awesome spot. Nice work brother.

 

[wiseplayer]

100% hedge with the injury problems Packers are having.

 

[KJ]

Ability to live bet is basically important anymore

 

[wizardofodd]

I would not pay attention to public/line moves etc on this one, it opened 4.5 and will hover between the magic 4 and 6 numbers which are irrelevant numbers to me...play your gut. Green Bay are gonna be a pretty big public dog...news flash, public has been killing it.

Yea I dont pay much attention to line moves too much usually. I still bet GB spread and ML against Dallas and added as the line kept going up.

 

[wizardofodd]

100% hedge with the injury problems Packers are having.

Thats the biggest concern, the injuries!

Then I look at the Atlanta side and see, Jones, Sanu, Gabriel, Freeman, Coleman...

I dont care about the defense side of the ball. Both these QBs should be able to move the ball easily I think

 

[dudleysdad]

So many options to hedge, ATL team total is an option. Do you have live betting at your disposal?

Explain how playing Atlanta team total is a way to hedge

 

[GWarner27]

it's not, but ATL could go over their TT and GB could still win the game

If you weren't planning to hedge when you placed the bet, don't. If you were, hedge

 

[CrimsonK]

The most successful pro sports bettor I know taught me these rules for hedging:

- Let's assume you don't have this future bet on GB - would you bet the field or however you are debating hedging if it was totally independent from this bet? If you think the field has value, then go for it.

- Is a win or loss on your future bet going to greatly impact your quality of life? If it would either way, then go for it.

If you think the value still lies with GB and it's not going to change your life if you win or lose - then don't do anything just stick with the original bet you made.

 

[wizardofodd]

Thanks fellas!

Crimson, I agree.

Gonna let it ride as I still like Gb tomorrow.

33-27 packers

 

[CHSGTMD]

Great points Crimson and good luck Wiz, will be pulling for you

 

[KJ]

Nice Wiz, I think both get to 30 tomorrow and wouldn't be surprised if one gets to 40. Hope it's the Pack