Games Im betting NCAAF....

[vanzack]

YTD Record: 21.5 - 23.5 - 2

Im tempted to take USF tonight, but my better judgement tells me to lay off.

Saturday:

1. Akron +16
2. Buffalo +14 (thanks Dr Bob)
3. C Mich -2.5 (bookmaker)
4. Penn State -3 (2 units)
5. S Carolina -13.5
6. Air Force +2.5 (1.5 units)
7. Cal +6.5
8. MD +18 (1.5 units, thanks for real Dr Bob)
9. Bama +2
10. FL -17.5 (might be the sucker bet of the day but I cant help myself)

GL all, will be glad to discuss any of them....

:cheers:

 

[signalcaller]

With you on PSU. Against you on Maryland though. GL on the rest

 

[sirwinzalot]

Good luck on all of those, especially Maryland. Good health on California.

 

[bull]

Penn State and Maryland here :cheers:

Maybe Air Force

As for bama, Florida, and Central Mich-- Good Health :down2:

 

[vanzack]

Yeah, the cal game is certainly scary. That game is one that ranked very high on my variance scale which means that according to my model there is a high likelihood that it will not be close to the spread at the end of the game.

I just hope Im not on the wrong side of the blowout. Cal was actually the 9th game on my list to make the cut, just a tenth of a point ahead of FL, but both hanging right at my 55.0 cutoff.

GL

 

[TroyStacks]

vanzack send me a PM if ya could to answer this.... i have rutgers at oipening line of -13 and it is now 17.5-18. now iknow middling is traditionally a bad idea and duh i now why.but a 4.5 point swing is pretty decent IMO to middle. what are your thoughts. key numbers are there to under 2 tds on one end and over 2.5 scores the other way. aso have tulsa at -18.5 and it is now 22.5 which goes over a few key numbers and scenarios. Which if any are good middle opportunities in your opinion or should i just stop being greedy (in this case i liek my numbers and assume i am on the right side) or stop being a pussy and let it ride(not this case b/c of obvious reasons). thanks

 

[vanzack]

vanzack send me a PM if ya could to answer this.... i have rutgers at oipening line of -13 and it is now 17.5-18. now iknow middling is traditionally a bad idea and duh i now why.but a 4.5 point swing is pretty decent IMO to middle. what are your thoughts. key numbers are there to under 2 tds on one end and over 2.5 scores the other way. aso have tulsa at -18.5 and it is now 22.5 which goes over a few key numbers and scenarios. Which if any are good middle opportunities in your opinion or should i just stop being greedy (in this case i liek my numbers and assume i am on the right side) or stop being a pussy and let it ride(not this case b/c of obvious reasons). thanks

Troy - I will answer this here because I think it might be useful to others too.

Would I sell that bet? HELL YES IN A HEARTBEAT. Middling is not a bad idea. I think you have that confused with my stance on hedging parlays, which is a totally different subject.

I have a rule in MLB that if I can sell a bet, on any game, for a 3 cent profit I do it and I dont look back. No MLB game is worth 3 cents to me.

Ncaaf is a little bit different. You have to calculate your EV (this is art not science) for the bet at 13.5, vs your EV if you put yourself in a middle situation. Any way you slice it, I would be willing to bet you would be ahead with selling the bet.

GL with whatever you choose, but normally a swing that big in a line for me means that I am out before the game even starts.

:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Van--Would you mind telling me your thoughts on the AFA/NAVY game? Not up on Navy as much as I'd like, but I do have a lean towards them in this game. Thanks in advance. GL with the card this week.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Penn St is my biggest play as well!

Also with you on Cal. GL van!

:cheers:

 

[Joe Public]

Isn't South Carolina falling completely apart thanks to injury?

Maybe that's where you're getting value, but this one confuses me a bit.

 

[pags11]

with you on Maryland...surprised to see you on So. Carolina though...GL this week vanzack...

 

[JumpOnBoard]

w/ ya on Akron and AFA..

I like your card alot..

GL today bro.

 

[redbearde]

Vanzack, I like most of your plays man. But I gotta know...how do you decide between the galactic incompetence of central michigan and the massive black hole of talent that is Northern Illinois?