Game 5 Recap and Game 6 Lookahead(Plus historical looks)

[B.A.R.]

Last nights Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals was the breakout game in LeBron James career. Now, many will point out all the spectacular things he has done in his short tenur in the league but never has he had such a magnificent 13 minute stretch on such a big stage. He got into a little bit of a zone and carried what was a scared team down the stretch. Scoring the last 25 Cleveland points James cemeted himself into a true superstar. These are the kind of playoff games that make legends. First round games against Washington are not where you achieve this. This is the conference finals. No matter how dreary the East is right now the effort was superb. As dominating as he was for those 13 minutes the Cavs barely escaped. He still needs a sidekick to help him out. I am sure the Cavaliers will address that after they bow out of the playoffs.

Detroit looks like a lost bunch indeed. They have blown the last two games much like the Cavaliers believe they gave away Games 1 and 2. Was Detroit given a bad break with McDyess getting thrown out? Totally. The league needs to look into the flopping rule after this season. It was a hard foul but not even close to a level 2 flagrant. That was a huge loss for Detroit. McDyess is so important on both ends for 10-12 minutes a half and in the Detroit droughts it showed. They could never get past that 7-8 point mark and in the end they didn't have enough breathing room against LeBron James. Now the Pistons face the daunting task of regrouping(again) and winning a Game 6 in what should be an absolute zoo.

Detroit has been here before. They have won so many Game 6's on the road over the years its sick. They have also in each of the last three years won a game 6 on the road facing elimination. Lets look back...

2003 Eastern Confererence Quarterfinals: Detroit @ Orlando

This is the series that T-Mac boldy claimed was over after Orlando got up 3-1. Detroit crushed them in game 5 and came to Orlando and Billups put on a magical Game 6 with 41 points. Game 7 was a laugher and rookie Tayshaun Prince got much of the credit with his defense of McGrady in the series.

2004 Eastern Conference Semis: Detroit @ New Jersey

Detroit won the first two games of this series handily. They then went to the Meadowlands and got drilled in Games 3 and 4. Game 5 was a dogfight that had New Jersey leading by three late. Chanucey Billups hit a just inside midcourt bankshot to force overtime. By the third overtime most of the stars had fouled out. Little used Brian Scalabrine took over late and the Nets won in Triple OT. This game was on a Friday night. Game 6 was Sunday at the Meadowlands. Most in the area here thought that the Stons would be too wore out from an emotional contest and the season was over. Not to be denied though Detroit played incredible defense and Rasheed had some late key baskets in a hard fought Game 6 victory. Detroit would blow away New Jersey in Game 7.

2005 NBA Finals: Detroit @ San Antonio

Detroit had just beat Miami in seven games and limped into San Antonio and got crushed in games one and two. Detroit won the next two at home and was poised to take a 3-2 series edge until BigShotBob hit the three to win Game 5. It was a crushing loss for the Pistons(sensing a familiar tone??). They faced the daunting task of winning two games at SA for a championship. I know I had no faith it would go past 6. I went to a movie instead of watching the game(lol). Sure enough Detroit played their best game of the series and won an improbable Game 6 on the road 95-86. They would fall short in the last 5 minutes of Game 7 though.

2006 Eastern Conference Semis: Detroit @ Cleveland

You all know the story here. Just like New Jersey two years prior Detroit loses three staright games after going up 2-0. Gund Arena was rockin on a Friday night of what was supposed to be King James coronation against the premier team in the East. It was a game of grit though and Detroit survived 74-72 despite Rasheed missing several key FT's. Detroit would clobber them 79-61 in Game 7 but the young Cavs had taken away much of Detroits energy in that series which showed the next series.


Game 6 have always been kind to Detroit. They have clinched series against Indiana(twice), Philadelphia plus the aforemntioned comeback instances. Can they do it this year? In all honesty I doubt it. Then again I doubted it with the above 4 instances. This team never suprises me but I think there are a few internal issues now and Cleveland is just brimming with confidence now.

I was going over some other playoff moments in my head last night and I shifted back to 1994 to find a somewhat similar scenario. The series was Indiana-New York. Indiana was an up and coming squad while New York was the favorites that year. The first two games in NY, the Knicks played good, not great but they were better in 4th quarter. The two games in Indiana, the Pacers made the plays late and the Knicks looked rattled and confused. Game five back at MSG...the Knicks rolled early. They had a nice lead through three quarters. The 4th quarter was the infamous Reggie Miller 25 point 4th quarter. One of the great shooting performances ever for a 10-12 minute stretch. The prohibitive favorite was shocked. It seemed it would be impossible for them to regain their composure and win a Game 6 at Market Square. Well, they did just that and won an incredible Game 7 as well.

Just looking at parallels in NBA history.

Betting wise on Game 6. I would think the under is a great play. If the number is too big for you on Cleveland hold out until halftime and hope Detroit has made an early run and you can get a reduced price then.

 

[B.A.R.]

Alright. I am just looking at the lines for this game and I am in total shock.

First of all, the line opened at Cleveland 1-173 at 9:33 this morning. By the time it hit the sportsbooks at was at a Pick'em. So, there was some early movement by the vegas guys on Detroit. The line has since went back to 1 or 1.5 in favor of Cleveland as you would expect.

I know many were pondering this line last night as having to be 4 or 4.5. As dramatic of a swing as that would be, I even thouht it was appropriate considering the circumstances. You would at least have to throw out a 2 or 3 you would think. Very interesting.

This line screams to hammer Cleveland. Now comes the line analysis. Vegas is fucking with peoples heads right now..lol. This is a dream line for many who think/know the series is over. But why dangle such a small number out there? I understand that this is where line should be for this series but in a situational aspect I expected an adjustment.

Very interesting....

 

[JPicks]

Great read. I will be backing the Pistons for the first time this series come game 6. It'll only be about a quarter of what I'll be playing the under though. This game will be played in the 70's. I don't think this is the same Detroit team that we have seen in past years, but I still believe that they are good enough to beat a one man show on any court. Again, nice writeup.

 

[gpcyan3]

I believe laying off the ats in this game might be advisable, but the under looks damn tasty to me.

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

Last season, Detroit was down 3-2 to Miami and went on the road for Game 6 and got hammered. I see the same thing happening here. Cavs by 15.

 

[Joe Public]

A -1? Are they f**king kidding? They're crying out for Cleveland money--why?

After that performance they were going to get it anyway.

Not only that, didn't the Game Three line open at 3.5?

What a total mind-f**k they're trying to put over here. Yeah, it keeps the Detroit ML payment low, but they are begging for an avalanche of Cavs money.

 

[cortez the killer]

why doesn't prince guard lebron more often? injury? bad coaching? i have no clue

 

[BetCrimes1984]

One thing in favour of Under & Detroit, is the fact there's simply no way James is repeating that game 5 effort. Peaks are always followed by valleys, no human is immune to this fact - I see it like a pitcher off a no-hitter for the first/only time. No matter what his intentions for his next start are, that start simply will not and is not going to live up to, or match, that previous high. And when you're holding James position relative to the rest of your team's performance - he's the first domino, and if he falls, the rest of them fall - then I see it as the key factor for Game 6. Whatever his mental desires are, he can't intention away the consequences of reaching such a peak. He's no mature Jordan yet, he hasn't gotten used to coming back from such performance highs.
Someone might observe he scored 38 & 32 last season against Washington after surpassing 40 pts in each of his 2 previous games there, to make the point he's not exactly "bouncing back" for the first time from such an effort in the playoffs, and that I might be overplaying the consequences for him (its not a B2B situation, after all). The problem is, earning that many points on that Washington defense at that stage of the playoffs (Rnd 1), is nothing in comparison to earning 48 off Detroit's D at this stage of the playoffs. But I will add, Cleveland could not win either of their following games in regulation against that average Washington team follwing LB's 40+ efforts (they lost one, and only won the other in OT). LB's playoff scoring in this series has been a clear crescendo...

10 -> 19 -> 32 -> 25 -> 48

...so amplifying the fact of Game 5 as a high from which he'll fall off, are all those previous efforts of his.

The question remains, how far does he fall? In the games he's scored 25+, CLE has won. Those with him scoring less, they've lost. The rest of the Cavs shot a combined 38.7% to DET's 42.5%, and they only shot that well because of how well James was going. LB in a letdown spot is going to affect the rest of that team (& DET's defense) accordingly.

I'd guess he max's out in the low 20s, which doesnt mean the cavs necessarily lose, but I do think it sets up the Under. And while the FT's have gone up as the series has gone on overall: 34, 34, 41, 62 & 67 (reg) ... I think it'll return to something like game 3's standard. No coincidence LB's 2 most vibrant games have totaled the most. A more offensively subdued game by his standards should have game 6 total no more than 50 imo.

LB shooting worse from the field, and totaling less, feeds into the very strong trend of Unders for game's 6s & 7s from the 2nd round onwards.

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

One thing in favour of Under & Detroit, is the fact there's simply no way James is repeating that game 5 effort. Peaks are always followed by valleys, no human is immune to this fact - I see it like a pitcher off a no-hitter for the first/only time. No matter what his intentions for his next start are, that start simply will not and is not going to live up to, or match, that previous high. And when you're holding James position relative to the rest of your team's performance - he's the first domino, and if he falls, the rest of them fall - then I see it as the key factor for Game 6. Whatever his mental desires are, he can't intention away the consequences of reaching such a peak. He's no mature Jordan yet, he hasn't gotten used to coming back from such performance highs.
Someone might observe he scored 38 & 32 last season against Washington after surpassing 40 pts in each of his 2 previous games there, to make the point he's not exactly "bouncing back" for the first time from such an effort in the playoffs, and that I might be overplaying the consequences for him (its not a B2B situation, after all). The problem is, earning that many points on that Washington defense at that stage of the playoffs (Rnd 1), is nothing in comparison to earning 48 off Detroit's D at this stage of the playoffs. But I will add, Cleveland could not win either of their following games in regulation against that average Washington team follwing LB's 40+ efforts (they lost one, and only won the other in OT). LB's playoff scoring in this series has been a clear crescendo...

10 -> 19 -> 32 -> 25 -> 48

...so amplifying the fact of Game 5 as a high from which he'll fall off, are all those previous efforts of his.

The question remains, how far does he fall? In the games he's scored 25+, CLE has won. Those with him scoring less, they've lost. The rest of the Cavs shot a combined 38.7% to DET's 42.5%, and they only shot that well because of how well James was going. LB in a letdown spot is going to affect the rest of that team (& DET's defense) accordingly.

I'd guess he max's out in the low 20s, which doesnt mean the cavs necessarily lose, but I do think it sets up the Under. And while the FT's have gone up as the series has gone on overall: 34, 34, 41, 62 & 67 (reg) ... I think it'll return to something like game 3's standard. No coincidence LB's 2 most vibrant games have totaled the most. A more offensively subdued game by his standards should have game 6 total no more than 50 imo.

LB shooting worse from the field, and totaling less, feeds into the very strong trend of Unders for game's 6s & 7s from the 2nd round onwards.

One of the best posts I have ever seen on this forum. Great stuff.

 

[Billivy]

The odds of Detroit losing 4 consecutive is very slim...i'll be pounding DET, the percentages are with me...i understand how one sided this series has been, but nobody on Cleveland wanted to shoot the ball down the stretch...and none of them will answer the call in game 6...Det will make an adjustment defensively on James (contain, not stop)...and Cleveland will be forced to lean on players that haven't got any experience in the past or really in this series yet...If Cleveland pulls it out, it'll be in 7 games...personally i expect Detroit to take the series!

 

[Billivy]

Detroit = resilliance

 

[rod_steel]

Another great read :cheers:

 

[brewer]

interesting betcrimes. i was thinking along those lines but dunno if i can stomach another detroit wager.

i think im just gonna take them to win the series now at +184 to hedge my cavs to win it all at 25 to 1.


dunno tho.

 

[driver]

Good stuff man.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for an awesome post BC...

Suprised to see so many thinking DET...but man...

as Joe said...its like their fuckin with us with this line..

 

[luvthemcowboys]

great read,

i have to add that the game comes down

to one thing will the cavs hit there shots beside leborn, his going to get his.

Will gibson have another solid game
Will rat tail hit his bull shit 16-19 footer
will z have a good game

dont know but i expect mcydess to have a big game for some reason and for det to play a lot of zone and slow down game tempo

i love the line who ever you like just roll with it.

i think at cavs -4 way to much action on det on you know all games have been close.

cant wait gl to all

 

[HUNT]

been reading about this all day..

DET ML and Under for me

Ride or collide.

gl brah.

 

[B.A.R.]

wow!

glad justice was served for Antonio

 

[B.A.R.]

HR Pufnstuff...

My phone just died...I was typin a response to your question on yahoo....

I think I qwill sit this out..maybe a halftime play..would reccomend an under...bout it..this line is too weird for me

 

[Dystopia]

I think I have to chime in here too, because this line is just too crazy, at least from my initial reaction. It is really screaming for CLE money like few lines I've seen before. But, when you think about it, it's actually good capping on their part. Giving a single point above one or two just seems dangerous at this juncture. If Det loses, it will probably be another incredibly close game. And, although I'm surprised the line is so tight, and that they're not banking on the fact that CLE money will come in either way, I'm thinking that this just isn't a gamble they're wiling to take. Personally, I think it's a "Who do you think is gonna win?" type of game. That's it. And the linesmakers decided that that's just what they'll do, figuring they'll get action either way, then adjust accordingly, as you've already noted they've done that.

I like DET, and I just go back to the fact that, yeah it was at DET but, CLE needed nearly 50 points from their best player who missed but 1 or 2 of his last shots, and still barely won. Duplicating that performance is a longshot. But, some will say he doesn't need to, especially since they're at home. Well, what exactly have his teammates shown? That's how I see it.

I know this for sure, Cleveland sucks in the 3Q, right? Well, they say they weren't gonna suck like that anymore after game 4. And they were right, they didn't. They actually won the last 3Q. But, they went under their 3Q total for the 5th time in the series. So, while everyone else was playing DET -1.5/2 for the 3Q, the more sure bet, imo was actually the Cle under 21. It barely came in last game, but all the factors were there. People assumed CLE would collapse 3Q, and they didn't. But, they also didn't go off. While both teams played solid D. We'll see what game 6 brings, but it's definitely something to look at for those that have 3Q betting available.

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

HR Pufnstuff...

My phone just died...I was typin a response to your question on yahoo....

I think I qwill sit this out..maybe a halftime play..would reccomend an under...bout it..this line is too weird for me

Ahh, no wonder LOL. This is probably a reputation line. I'm playing Cleveland again for the fifth time in the series. Not nearly as big as Game 5. I kinda want Detroit to win this one so I can come back HUGE in Game 7 with Cleveland again.

 

[Ally]

GL BAR:cheers:

 

[HUNT]

who are the refs tonight?

LBJ is going to get some crazy calls tonight. THe plan has to be for him to attack the basket everytime he touches the ball.

I know a lot of people hate the conspiracy theory but I'm telling you it is Lebron's league.

 

[YesSir]

Thoughts I have for tonight:

Home Court? Big Z and Gooden play so much better at home, as players normally do. Superstars can play anywhere but role players excel at home.

Billups or Rip going to break out? The Cavs have done a great job on defense. Instead of talking about when are the Pistons going to break out of shooting slumps- lets look at how the Cavs have locked them up...

Chemistry? I think this is huge on every level. The Cavs seem to be focused and have their eyes on the prize- Lebron has developed into a team leader. E Snow(Slow) is also a great captain that is not afraid to speak up. THe Pistons? I was at the game on Thursday and this is when I really noticed that these guys really dont like each other. After a TO the Cavs were still in the huddle talking to each other while The Pistons were all sprawled out along the scorers table(each about 4 feet apart). I have watched Game 5 about 6 or 7 times- If you have it DVR'd watch at the end of the game. Sheed starts bitching at Billups right after the game. He is really a cancer on this team when things are going bad.

Defense? Who really is the better defensive team in this series? Both teams have done a excellent job, but the Cavs have seemed to have more timely stops.

Stars? I would say the most unstopable players on the court will be LBJ and Sheed. They both can score at will. Bron has the ability to create his own shot, where Sheed needs someone to facilitate the ball to him.

Refs? Will Lebron start getting some star treatment. How will the game tilt at the end. Who will get the calls in crunch time? Does the NBA want a Game 7 or LBJ in the champioship? I tend to think David Stern wants LBJ in the championship, esp. after Game 5...

Fatigue? Which team is more tired here? LBJ logged 51 minutes...Big Z got extended time....Hughes played 29 minutes....I think Billups played 53 or so... Which team is deeper? Which bench to you fear more? Though the Cavs have struggled, I am more confident with some shooters coming off the bench (i.e. Marshall, Jones, Gibson) and some energy with Verejo. The Cavs bench have logged some minutes this post-season, so I think they are better prepared. They played 10 guys in game 4...

For one time lets not look at what the line is screaming, but what these teams are screaming. Detroit looks to be bored and content with what they have done. The Cavs, the little brother, seem focused and ready to step up to the next level. This line is where it should be IMO. Every one of these games, which is amazing, has come down to essentially the final possession. Who will make the big shot. Are you more confident with your moneny in Bron's hands or a vet. Pistons team that has Mr. Big Shot? It should be a good game...Gl with your bets and God Bless

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Alright. I am just looking at the lines for this game and I am in total shock.

First of all, the line opened at Cleveland 1-173 at 9:33 this morning. By the time it hit the sportsbooks at was at a Pick'em. So, there was some early movement by the vegas guys on Detroit. The line has since went back to 1 or 1.5 in favor of Cleveland as you would expect.

I know many were pondering this line last night as having to be 4 or 4.5. As dramatic of a swing as that would be, I even thouht it was appropriate considering the circumstances. You would at least have to throw out a 2 or 3 you would think. Very interesting.

This line screams to hammer Cleveland. Now comes the line analysis. Vegas is fucking with peoples heads right now..lol. This is a dream line for many who think/know the series is over. But why dangle such a small number out there? I understand that this is where line should be for this series but in a situational aspect I expected an adjustment.

Very interesting....

:10_5_137:

 

[HUNT]

good stuff yessir

 

[HUNT]

Cavs definitely have made more timely stops down the stretch.

 

[tee*dub]

great thread. I am hitting the Detroit ML pretty hard. Waiting on the number but it will be a 4 unit play for me (4 units is my top play).

Two reasons- Detroit's urgency and fading Lebron's ability to come back after the "no-hitter", to use BC's analogy.. I agree 1000% that LJ will struggle at times and even if he goes off again, as we saw in Game 5, Detroit will be right there at the end.

GL. :smiley_acbe: