Game 5 of the second round - NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
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[TD="colspan: 8"]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - SUN 5/11

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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Tue 5/13
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[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Washington Wizards
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[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+5
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[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 180.5
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]7:00 PM
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[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Indiana Pacers
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[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-5
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[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 180.5
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Tue 5/13
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[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Los Angeles Clippers
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[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+5.5
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[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 212.5
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]09:30 PM
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[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Oklahoma City Thunder
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[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-5.5
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[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 212.5
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Home team in Game 5 of the series after splitting the previous two HH/AA games: 21-6 SU and 17-10 ATS (avg line -6.0).

In round 2 or later: 10-2 SU and ATS (avg line -5.5) with a margin of victory or loss of 19, 12, -18, 19, 12, 16, -3, 4, 40, 12, 27, 32.

In round 2 or later after losing G1 home, winning G2 home, winning G3 away, losing G4 away: 6-0 SU and ATS (avg line -6.8) by margins of 19, 12, 12, 16, 40, 12.

found thru sportsdatabase.com
 
Home team in Game 5 of the playoffs after splitting the first two games at home and then winning both games away: 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS. Same trend, but in round 2 or later: 3-1 SU and 0-4 ATS.

Add the fact that the Wizards were the #2 team* in the NBA as the underdog this season at 30-17-0 ATS (.638) and they are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the playoffs as the underdog so far this season. Of the 30 games they covered as the underdog this season, they won 22 of those SU.

*Thunder are the #1 team in the underdog role this season at 10-5-0 ATS.

found thru sportsdatabase.com
 
After the way the Wiz lost Game 4 & the fact they now move to a venue where they've twice already this season been butchered, I'm thinking about laying -10.5 with Indy. If Wash get up I'll be surprised. Don't feel there's any inbetween result here: Indy slaughters them (the case being Game 3 signaled the "full-time" return of the "real" Pacers) or Wash somehow defies their spot and repeat their Game 1 effort, and win or lose narrowly (the case being Indy is still subject to only sporadically producing their formerly consistently good form). I think the latter a far less likely proposition, but my faith in Indy needs 1 more result to be unquestioned (if they really are back, they'll punctuate the ending of this series) so I won't rule it out.
 
I like Spurs and Indy to close out the series and covering and I like the Heat to win, but not sure about the cover.

Pacers really starting to get to themselves on defense and Wizards defense just isn't good enough to keep Indy below 90 points, something that is a must for them to hope to cover, not to mention win.
I think that Wizards won't score above 85 points tonight.

As for the Blazers, if Williams is out, I don't think they have a fighting chance against the Spurs in SA.
 
After the way the Wiz lost Game 4 & the fact they now move to a venue where they've twice already this season been butchered, I'm thinking about laying -10.5 with Indy.
Click to expand...

It sounds ominous when you say it like that, but those two games occurred in November and January, against lines of 10.5 and 9.5. If you want to go back even further, you can say the Wizards are 1-13 SU at Indy since 2007, losing those 13 games by an average of -12 points per game.

But their last two games at Indy have resulted in a SU win and a 4-point loss that they covered. I think those are the games we should be focusing on. And we should also put that into perspective with the Wizards home/away SU and ATS record this season. Check it out:

Wizards at home this season: 23-22 SU (.511) and 18-26-1 ATS (.409)
Wizards away this season: 26-20 SU (.565) and 31-15 ATS (.674)

Then consider the trends in post #3 above: the Wizards' ATS record as the underdog this year, and (to a lesser extent) the game 5 situation in round two or later where the home team split the first two games and then won both games away.
 
RANDY WITTMAN is 20-2 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days as the coach of WASHINGTON.

The average score was WITTMAN 99.3, OPPONENT 98.0.
 
Wiz fan so take my comments with a grain of salt, but George need 39 points on 7-10 from behind the arc to make that comeback vs. the Wiz. THey had very little going on besides George making some bombs. I think Ariza sticks him a little better tonight and we see a more Paul George like performance instead of Ray Allen.
 
emkee said:
RANDY WITTMAN is 20-2 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days as the coach of WASHINGTON.

The average score was WITTMAN 99.3, OPPONENT 98.0.
Click to expand...

Wow at that number and wow at such randomness..
 
The wiz are better on the road. That's no secret.


their locker room has a lot of experience so that's a big plus.... Sundays loss was very tough. That end of game execution was pure garbage.
 
austinhous said:
It sounds ominous when you say it like that, but those two games occurred in November and January, against lines of 10.5 and 9.5. If you want to go back even further, you can say the Wizards are 1-13 SU at Indy since 2007, losing those 13 games by an average of -12 points per game.

But their last two games at Indy have resulted in a SU win and a 4-point loss that they covered. I think those are the games we should be focusing on. And we should also put that into perspective with the Wizards home/away SU and ATS record this season. Check it out:

Wizards at home this season: 23-22 SU (.511) and 18-26-1 ATS (.409)
Wizards away this season: 26-20 SU (.565) and 31-15 ATS (.674)

Then consider the trends in post #3 above: the Wizards' ATS record as the underdog this year, and (to a lesser extent) the game 5 situation in round two or later where the home team split the first two games and then won both games away.
Click to expand...

I would've made this post before the game begun, but I only just woke so have missed the first half, hence hindsight in whatever capacity is involved.

The game sequence trend you posted does't read well ATS for the home team, but they've basically been unbeatable SU (all: 7-1/2ndR+ 3-1). The reason isn't hard to guess why: the road team earned a split away to begin the series, so wrestled HCA away from theirmopponent, which they pormptly not only threw away once but twice at home, where they'd expect to win at least 1. Wash not only did that, but did it horribly in G4. So, Wash was/is in a spot where traditionally the road team sucked SU anyway, but they're also off a horrible loss as an inexperienced road team, who also happened to be playing the one opponent this season who has regularly handed their asses to them (75% of Wash's 20+ pt losses this season have come playing Indy). The unique elements in any particular spot are always capable of overriding historical stat indicators. They're hardly an unacceptable guide, but that's all they are.

However, all that said & in my post I still didn't write them off (based on my expactation of Pacer inconsistency still being an issue).
 
Took a teaser 5 points teaser on Spurs and the Heat.
Just really doubt one of the series gets extended tonight.

Portland did the most they could do, win one game. Nets can be very good competition to the Heat, but Heat know how to close the series and there is a reason why they are 6 - 0 in Game 5, when they have 3 - 1 lead.
I also like the Under in Miami and Over in SA.
 
As soon as Todd Bateman saw the bus turn right off Morrison, near the Nines Hotel, he instantly recognized the passengers aboard.
"I thought, 'Oh, there's the Spurs,' " he said.
Bateman, a bus driver for TriMet, was working the second half of his shift on Monday afternoon when the San Antonio Spurs pulled up next to him downtown. It was roughly two hours before Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals and Bateman was about to play a unique part in the Trail Blazers' 103-92 victory over the Spurs.
A few minutes later, the Spurs' bus would collide with Bateman's bus, San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich would needle Bateman like he was an NBA referee and Bateman would become a central figure in what he describes as a "really crazy and really funny happening."
After the Spurs rolled out onto Morrison, Bateman shouted to his passengers, "Hey, there's the Spurs!" In unison, they started booing, directing a little good-natured ribbing toward a team that had opened up a 3-0 lead over the Blazers in their playoff series.
This is about where things went sideways. According to Bateman, the other driver turned to the right and pulled in front of him near the downtown transit mall, an illegal maneuver in that area. Bateman opened his window to let the driver know it was a no-no, but he ignored the warning and pressed ahead, trying to squeeze around Bateman.
"Then he crunched the side of my bus," Bateman said.
You've probably heard this much. The fender bender was minor and no one was injured, but it caused the Spurs to arrive to the Moda Center about 15 or 20 minutes late.
But there's more. After the accident, the Spurs' driver hopped out and offered a bargain.
"He said, 'If you move five feet, I can just get out of here,'" Bateman said. "But I was like, 'You just hit me, that's not really how it works.'"
Bateman, 27, needed information from the license of the Spurs' bus driver and was supposed to wait until his supervisor arrived to check out the scene. The other driver eventually relented and the two exchanged information. All the while, Popovich grew restless. He strutted off the bus to investigate and, before long, as if Bateman were NBA official Joey Crawford, Popovich pleaded with Bateman to solve the issue quickly.
"He came out and said, 'Hey, we've got to get going. Can you just move?" said Bateman, who has worked for TriMet for six months. "I was like, 'No. I can't move. I need to get his information. Once my supervisor gets here, you can move."
A frustrated Popovich grimaced, then headed back to his seat on the bus. A few hours later, the Blazers defeated the Spurs for the first time in the series, avoiding a sweep and forcing a Game 5 in the best-of-seven series. And, in a humorous twist, Bateman was there to soak it all in.



Gregg Popovich talked to TriMet driver after buses collided on way to Spurs-Trail Blazers Game 4 Todd Bateman, TriMet driver of bus-35, exchanged a few words with San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich after his and the Spurs' buses collided.



In addition to working for TriMet, Bateman also works at the Moda Center as a security usher. Once his TriMet shift ended, he clocked in at the arena and was working by the time the Spurs walked out of their locker room for pregame introductions.
"I probably secured the victory last night," he said, laughing. "I got in his head. I mean, who tells Pop no?"



now we know why the spurs sucked :)
 
You can make a good amount of money betting unders in elimination games. But not doing it blindly. There are spots that are much better than others.
Elimination games being game 4 or 5 are 56-62 O/U. Meaning they only go under 52.5% of the time.
Games 6 and 7 however, 71-101 O/U, go under 59% of the time.
We can go deeper, as they are much more profitable per round.
After round 1 of the playoffs, elimination games taking place in game 6 and 7 are 30-58 O/U, going under 66% of the time.
When the road team has 3 wins in the above scenario, the under grows to 68% of the time.
How about based on defensive/offensive minded teams?
Game 6 and game 7 elimination games after round 1 where the road team has 3 wins and total is less than 190 (two defensive teams). The Over-Under is 7-25 All time, going under 78.1% of the time by an average of 9.6 points.
This is compared to when the total is above 205 (two offensive powerhouses), the Over-Under is actually 6-3 favoring the over. (OKC/Clippers)
Best Play for All This based on Numbers Alone:
Pacers/Wizards Under
Road team 3 wins, elimination game taking place in game 6, in the second round of the playoffs, with two defensive teams with a total of less than 190.




From LeagueCapper on Blankets
 
his reasoning behind classifying teams as either offensive or defensive based on the set total seems contrived
 
Since 1995 in game six away after losing game 5 at home I am getting 15-11 SU and 16-10 ATS for the visiting team. I am also getting that the Wizards only covered 33.3% of their home games this season as the favorite.
 
I can't remember a series that has been as strange as this wiz/pacers series. It's just nuts. Just gonna pretend like the game isn't taking place. If the wiz win I'll be on them in game 7.

Chris Paul over prop me thinks
 
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