Game 4 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets
Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers
Monday, May 27, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The New Look Isn't New Anymore
Boston won Game 3 despite the fact that Indiana scored 69 first-half points.
We saw a similar development in Game 4 of Indiana's series against the Bucks, where the Bucks, playing for the first time without both of their star scorers, looked different than before and, for a while, could use this element of surprise to their advantage.
Just as the Pacers' defense figured things out in Game 4 against the Bucks, a superior Boston defense figured things out in Game 3 against the Pacers.
Indiana's Haliburton-less offense carried with it an element of surprise in the first half of that game.
But Boston, having figured out the Pacers, held them to 42 second-half points.
Haliburton, having reaggravated his hamstring injury in Game 2, is listed as 'questionable' for Game 4.
No matter what, the Haliburton situation will hurt Indiana's outlook for Game 4: if he plays, he probably won't be 100%, in which case Indiana suffers because a hurt Haliburton won't be as effective as his backup point guard T.J. McConnell; if Haliburton doesn't play, then we get a Pacers offense that the Celtics have figured out.
Boston's Top-Notch Defense
The Celtics were, in the beginning of this series, discomposed by Indiana's reliance on scoring in transition.
But, especially in the second half of Game 3, Boston showed its newfound comfort with defending in transition.
Boston locked down the Pacers largely by getting back on defense in an organized fashion and stopping Indiana's transition attack before it reached the paint.
In the half-court, the Celtics boasted their versatility.
Scheme-wise, they could employ a zone to give Indiana a different look.
But their versatility is most salient in the switch potential for their different players.
Jayson Tatum is able to guard a guy like Myles Turner, locking down Indiana's center on the perimeter.
Jrue Holiday is also able to make adjusting easy for Boston's head coach because of his ability to guard different positions.
Boston is also simply very active: swipes and blocks undercut Indiana's endeavor to score in the paint, while Haliburton's injury reduces its ability to score behind the arc.
McConnell is not a shooter, so the Celtics know to go under on his screens. They showcased their ability to stick with McConnell as he tried to drive inside in order to attack the spaces created by going under.
Indiana's Defense
Boston's offense had its "off" game that it apparently has once in every postseason series.
Marred by cold shooting for much of the night, the Celtics seemed like they were going to lose Game 3 largely because of the lack of rhythm in their offense.
By the end of the game, they missed an absurd 17 open three-point attempts.
With Indiana having given them a scare, expect them to be more in-tune offensively, building off of their successful comeback effort.
As evident in the Celtics' offensive rating in Games 1 and 2 and as has been evident throughout the postseason, the Pacers have an awful defense.
They are allowing 119.2 points-per-game over the course of the whole year.
Boston's obviously above-average offense will score enough points for the team to cover the spread if the Pacers just allow their average point total.
The Situation
Boston has been locked-in in close-out games.
In the first round, the Celtics beat Miami 118-84 to clinch the series.
Most recently, they beat Cleveland by 15 to close out that series.
Expect Boston, therefore, to be at its best tonight.
Takeaway
We'll see if Indiana can be mentally stronger in Game 4 than it was in Game 2 when it likewise had to respond to letting a win slip away in its previous game.
But a mentally locked-in Indiana team would still have too much to overcome because Boston has figured out Indiana's offense and has found Indiana's defense unchallenging.
Best Bet: Celtics -7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, May 28, 2024 at 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Game 3 Anomalies
The Mavericks won Game 3 by relying on anomalies.
One anomaly is that they made and attempted 14 more free throws than Minnesota. Their success at the free throw line expresses their one-time inspired response to their free throw shooting problems in Game 2.
Another anomaly is that Dallas made five more threes than the Timberwolves, converting them at a 20-percent higher rate than Minnesota.
This shooting disparity cannot be expected to continue, because the Timberwolves, on the season, have a clearly stronger three-point conversion rate than Dallas.
Dallas is a team that likes to pack the paint in order to wall off dribble penetration, so it certainly presents a defensive structure that Minnesota can and must be expected to exploit from behind the arc.
In particular, Karl-Anthony Towns is too good to continue struggling to the absurd degree that he is.
I for one like that he went 0-for-8 from deep in Game 3: it sets him up to bounce back in Game 4; his eight three-point attempts shows that he hasn't lost confidence in his shot.
Limiting Dallas' Offense
With an injured Dereck Lively, Dallas looked less potent in the paint, both on defense given his versatility and on offense with his scoring ability.
Lively is listed as a game-time decision for Game 4, and his absence would give a helpful but not a necessary boost to Minnesota's outlook.
Let's consider that even with Luka Doncic scoring his usual 30 points Dallas has been held below 100 points in this postseason.
Liking Luka therefore does not justify liking the Mavericks' offense as a whole.
The key for Minnesota will be to limit Luka's supporting cast, including limiting Kyrie Irving somewhat.
Kyrie hasn't scored consecutive 30-point games in the postseason, so one should expect him to decline, anyways.
But my main point is that Minnesota's defense showed a lot of promise in Game 3 with its attempts to be creative scheme-wise and especially its ability to limit easy dunks that was obscured by Dallas' unusually good shooting.
The Timberwolves' plethora of excellent defensive pieces allows their head coach to get creative.
As lesser defenses have done in this postseason, defenses that lack the same good coaching, the same superior rim protection that Minnesota has with its four-time defensive player of the year, and that lack the same perimeter defense that Minnesota has with All-NBA defensive-caliber guys like Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota is going to finally show that it can hold Dallas to a low point total.
The Verdict
In Game 3, Anthony Edwards finally approached 30 points in a game in this series. Being the superstar that he is, he's responded to criticism of his play, and he'll show more composure in crunch time in response to criticism of his impact in the fourth quarter.
With better shooting, which will further space out Dallas' compressed defense for the likes of Edwards, Minnesota's offense will do more than it needs to do given the capabilities of its highly-ranked defense.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +3 at -115 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers
Monday, May 27, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The New Look Isn't New Anymore
Boston won Game 3 despite the fact that Indiana scored 69 first-half points.
We saw a similar development in Game 4 of Indiana's series against the Bucks, where the Bucks, playing for the first time without both of their star scorers, looked different than before and, for a while, could use this element of surprise to their advantage.
Just as the Pacers' defense figured things out in Game 4 against the Bucks, a superior Boston defense figured things out in Game 3 against the Pacers.
Indiana's Haliburton-less offense carried with it an element of surprise in the first half of that game.
But Boston, having figured out the Pacers, held them to 42 second-half points.
Haliburton, having reaggravated his hamstring injury in Game 2, is listed as 'questionable' for Game 4.
No matter what, the Haliburton situation will hurt Indiana's outlook for Game 4: if he plays, he probably won't be 100%, in which case Indiana suffers because a hurt Haliburton won't be as effective as his backup point guard T.J. McConnell; if Haliburton doesn't play, then we get a Pacers offense that the Celtics have figured out.
Boston's Top-Notch Defense
The Celtics were, in the beginning of this series, discomposed by Indiana's reliance on scoring in transition.
But, especially in the second half of Game 3, Boston showed its newfound comfort with defending in transition.
Boston locked down the Pacers largely by getting back on defense in an organized fashion and stopping Indiana's transition attack before it reached the paint.
In the half-court, the Celtics boasted their versatility.
Scheme-wise, they could employ a zone to give Indiana a different look.
But their versatility is most salient in the switch potential for their different players.
Jayson Tatum is able to guard a guy like Myles Turner, locking down Indiana's center on the perimeter.
Jrue Holiday is also able to make adjusting easy for Boston's head coach because of his ability to guard different positions.
Boston is also simply very active: swipes and blocks undercut Indiana's endeavor to score in the paint, while Haliburton's injury reduces its ability to score behind the arc.
McConnell is not a shooter, so the Celtics know to go under on his screens. They showcased their ability to stick with McConnell as he tried to drive inside in order to attack the spaces created by going under.
Indiana's Defense
Boston's offense had its "off" game that it apparently has once in every postseason series.
Marred by cold shooting for much of the night, the Celtics seemed like they were going to lose Game 3 largely because of the lack of rhythm in their offense.
By the end of the game, they missed an absurd 17 open three-point attempts.
With Indiana having given them a scare, expect them to be more in-tune offensively, building off of their successful comeback effort.
As evident in the Celtics' offensive rating in Games 1 and 2 and as has been evident throughout the postseason, the Pacers have an awful defense.
They are allowing 119.2 points-per-game over the course of the whole year.
Boston's obviously above-average offense will score enough points for the team to cover the spread if the Pacers just allow their average point total.
The Situation
Boston has been locked-in in close-out games.
In the first round, the Celtics beat Miami 118-84 to clinch the series.
Most recently, they beat Cleveland by 15 to close out that series.
Expect Boston, therefore, to be at its best tonight.
Takeaway
We'll see if Indiana can be mentally stronger in Game 4 than it was in Game 2 when it likewise had to respond to letting a win slip away in its previous game.
But a mentally locked-in Indiana team would still have too much to overcome because Boston has figured out Indiana's offense and has found Indiana's defense unchallenging.
Best Bet: Celtics -7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, May 28, 2024 at 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Game 3 Anomalies
The Mavericks won Game 3 by relying on anomalies.
One anomaly is that they made and attempted 14 more free throws than Minnesota. Their success at the free throw line expresses their one-time inspired response to their free throw shooting problems in Game 2.
Another anomaly is that Dallas made five more threes than the Timberwolves, converting them at a 20-percent higher rate than Minnesota.
This shooting disparity cannot be expected to continue, because the Timberwolves, on the season, have a clearly stronger three-point conversion rate than Dallas.
Dallas is a team that likes to pack the paint in order to wall off dribble penetration, so it certainly presents a defensive structure that Minnesota can and must be expected to exploit from behind the arc.
In particular, Karl-Anthony Towns is too good to continue struggling to the absurd degree that he is.
I for one like that he went 0-for-8 from deep in Game 3: it sets him up to bounce back in Game 4; his eight three-point attempts shows that he hasn't lost confidence in his shot.
Limiting Dallas' Offense
With an injured Dereck Lively, Dallas looked less potent in the paint, both on defense given his versatility and on offense with his scoring ability.
Lively is listed as a game-time decision for Game 4, and his absence would give a helpful but not a necessary boost to Minnesota's outlook.
Let's consider that even with Luka Doncic scoring his usual 30 points Dallas has been held below 100 points in this postseason.
Liking Luka therefore does not justify liking the Mavericks' offense as a whole.
The key for Minnesota will be to limit Luka's supporting cast, including limiting Kyrie Irving somewhat.
Kyrie hasn't scored consecutive 30-point games in the postseason, so one should expect him to decline, anyways.
But my main point is that Minnesota's defense showed a lot of promise in Game 3 with its attempts to be creative scheme-wise and especially its ability to limit easy dunks that was obscured by Dallas' unusually good shooting.
The Timberwolves' plethora of excellent defensive pieces allows their head coach to get creative.
As lesser defenses have done in this postseason, defenses that lack the same good coaching, the same superior rim protection that Minnesota has with its four-time defensive player of the year, and that lack the same perimeter defense that Minnesota has with All-NBA defensive-caliber guys like Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota is going to finally show that it can hold Dallas to a low point total.
The Verdict
In Game 3, Anthony Edwards finally approached 30 points in a game in this series. Being the superstar that he is, he's responded to criticism of his play, and he'll show more composure in crunch time in response to criticism of his impact in the fourth quarter.
With better shooting, which will further space out Dallas' compressed defense for the likes of Edwards, Minnesota's offense will do more than it needs to do given the capabilities of its highly-ranked defense.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +3 at -115 with BetOnline
