Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bet: Dallas Is Not Done Yet
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, June 14, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas
The Trend That Does Not Matter
Let's decide on the best bet for this game by considering the best-sounding argument for both sides.
Celtics backers will cite this trend: Boston is undefeated in close-out games in this postseason.
I don't like this trend.
First of all, Boston's first two close-out games were at home against Miami and Cleveland teams that were missing their leading scorer.
Moreover, the mentality in those close-out games was different for the Celtics because they had lost a game in the series.
We saw things play out differently when Boston was ahead 3-0 in Indiana.
The Celtics had to come from behind late even though Indiana's key starting point guard was absent.
They were able to profit from Indiana's brutal inability to execute down the stretch, whereas, as we saw in the Minnesota series and before, Dallas has the veteran wit and talent in the form of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to close out a game.
The Key Trend
The most important situational trend for this game is one that nobody is talking about: Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS following a home playoff loss.
"Home playoff loss" might seem arbitrarily specific at first glance, but it's not unreasonable to imagine that losing a playoff game in front of the home faithful is a particularly bitter experience, one that lights a special fire within the players.
The fact of the matter is that the significance of this trend is impossible to reasonably dispute at this point in the postseason because it has a solid data sample to back it up.
Dallas has lost three game home playoff games this year.
After each one, the Mavericks have not only won and covered, but they played what is by far their best game in the series.
In the first round, they beat the Clippers by 30, whereas their second-highest margin of victory in that series was 13.
Against the Thunder, they won by twelve points, three more than their second-biggest win in that series.
Most recently, they beat Minnesota by 21, whereas they did not beat the Timberwolves a second time by double digits.
When the Mavericks play after losing at home, they bring their best offense, which makes them lethal in tandem with their defense, which has been one of the NBA's very best defenses since the trade deadline.
So, while I don't think that Boston will be very locked-in now that it, statistically speaking, essentially has the series in its pocket, I still find that the Mavs are in a decisively solid spot even if the Celtics were completely locked-in.
More Than A Matter of Pride
As we saw when Minnesota faced an 0-3 hole, teams that have great seasons don't want to go out with a sweep.
My point here is not so much that the Mavericks will play for pride as that its key players and coaches will be extra motivated after the way they lost Game 3.
Luka fouling out in Game 3 threatens the narrative that he is a winner.
Head coach Jason Kidd threatens to create the reputation for himself as a total idiot. One has to expect him to be smarter in Game 4.
The momentum-suiciding timeout in the fourth quarter aside, he decided to give Tim Hardaway Jr. extended minutes despite THJ's extended stretch of poor form.
Dante Exum and Derrick Jones Jr.
In Game 4, expect Dante Exum to get more minutes.
Exum has been a better scorer and offensively more energetic player than THJ.
As defensive rating comparison and general reputation suggest, Exum is also a better defender.
DJJ is the best defender of the three. He should bounce back, as his Game 2 performance indicates his ability to reach double digits against Boston.
More Support for Luka
Dallas' bigs are figuring out how to succeed against Boston, especially with Boston's starting center and top rim protector, Kristaps Porzingis, banged-up.
In Game 2, Dallas scored 98 points with its second-best scorer struggling.
The potential for the supporting cast is there to take the Mavericks well past 105 points.
Irving, as he did in the regular season, had an efficient game against Boston in Dallas.
Luka was inefficient in Game 3 but should bounce back, as he was due for a bad three-point shooting performance but had proven his reliability from deep in previous games.
Defending Boston
Boston's three-point shooting efficiency has been disappointing throughout this postseason, especially relative to its regular season efficiency.
This is a problem because the Celtics are heavily reliant on shooting threes, especially against a Dallas team that likes to wall off the paint.
Dallas is, due to its defensive scheme and its rim protectors, one of the best teams at limiting points around the basket.
When the Celtics had their best three-point shooting performance of the series in Game 1 in Boston, they scored 107 points while relying heavily on now-injured Porzingis' inside production.
With their offense less efficient inside after Game 1 and their three-point shooting weaker on the road, Boston will decline offensively.
Takeaway
Boston's defense is not invincible: the Celtics have allowed over 110 points to Miami, Cleveland, and Indiana in this postseason.
Dallas has the shooters – the bigs who stretch the floor and the guards – and the inside scoring talent to achieve a serious point total even against high-rated defenses like OKC's.
This is just the spot for things to come together offensively for the Mavericks, and we might get a lax Boston, too, while Dallas' defense will continue to be locked in as one of the NBA's highest-rated.
I'm seeing a 111-102-type win for Dallas in Game 4.
Best Bet: Mavericks ML at -117 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, June 14, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas
The Trend That Does Not Matter
Let's decide on the best bet for this game by considering the best-sounding argument for both sides.
Celtics backers will cite this trend: Boston is undefeated in close-out games in this postseason.
I don't like this trend.
First of all, Boston's first two close-out games were at home against Miami and Cleveland teams that were missing their leading scorer.
Moreover, the mentality in those close-out games was different for the Celtics because they had lost a game in the series.
We saw things play out differently when Boston was ahead 3-0 in Indiana.
The Celtics had to come from behind late even though Indiana's key starting point guard was absent.
They were able to profit from Indiana's brutal inability to execute down the stretch, whereas, as we saw in the Minnesota series and before, Dallas has the veteran wit and talent in the form of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to close out a game.
The Key Trend
The most important situational trend for this game is one that nobody is talking about: Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS following a home playoff loss.
"Home playoff loss" might seem arbitrarily specific at first glance, but it's not unreasonable to imagine that losing a playoff game in front of the home faithful is a particularly bitter experience, one that lights a special fire within the players.
The fact of the matter is that the significance of this trend is impossible to reasonably dispute at this point in the postseason because it has a solid data sample to back it up.
Dallas has lost three game home playoff games this year.
After each one, the Mavericks have not only won and covered, but they played what is by far their best game in the series.
In the first round, they beat the Clippers by 30, whereas their second-highest margin of victory in that series was 13.
Against the Thunder, they won by twelve points, three more than their second-biggest win in that series.
Most recently, they beat Minnesota by 21, whereas they did not beat the Timberwolves a second time by double digits.
When the Mavericks play after losing at home, they bring their best offense, which makes them lethal in tandem with their defense, which has been one of the NBA's very best defenses since the trade deadline.
So, while I don't think that Boston will be very locked-in now that it, statistically speaking, essentially has the series in its pocket, I still find that the Mavs are in a decisively solid spot even if the Celtics were completely locked-in.
More Than A Matter of Pride
As we saw when Minnesota faced an 0-3 hole, teams that have great seasons don't want to go out with a sweep.
My point here is not so much that the Mavericks will play for pride as that its key players and coaches will be extra motivated after the way they lost Game 3.
Luka fouling out in Game 3 threatens the narrative that he is a winner.
Head coach Jason Kidd threatens to create the reputation for himself as a total idiot. One has to expect him to be smarter in Game 4.
The momentum-suiciding timeout in the fourth quarter aside, he decided to give Tim Hardaway Jr. extended minutes despite THJ's extended stretch of poor form.
Dante Exum and Derrick Jones Jr.
In Game 4, expect Dante Exum to get more minutes.
Exum has been a better scorer and offensively more energetic player than THJ.
As defensive rating comparison and general reputation suggest, Exum is also a better defender.
DJJ is the best defender of the three. He should bounce back, as his Game 2 performance indicates his ability to reach double digits against Boston.
More Support for Luka
Dallas' bigs are figuring out how to succeed against Boston, especially with Boston's starting center and top rim protector, Kristaps Porzingis, banged-up.
In Game 2, Dallas scored 98 points with its second-best scorer struggling.
The potential for the supporting cast is there to take the Mavericks well past 105 points.
Irving, as he did in the regular season, had an efficient game against Boston in Dallas.
Luka was inefficient in Game 3 but should bounce back, as he was due for a bad three-point shooting performance but had proven his reliability from deep in previous games.
Defending Boston
Boston's three-point shooting efficiency has been disappointing throughout this postseason, especially relative to its regular season efficiency.
This is a problem because the Celtics are heavily reliant on shooting threes, especially against a Dallas team that likes to wall off the paint.
Dallas is, due to its defensive scheme and its rim protectors, one of the best teams at limiting points around the basket.
When the Celtics had their best three-point shooting performance of the series in Game 1 in Boston, they scored 107 points while relying heavily on now-injured Porzingis' inside production.
With their offense less efficient inside after Game 1 and their three-point shooting weaker on the road, Boston will decline offensively.
Takeaway
Boston's defense is not invincible: the Celtics have allowed over 110 points to Miami, Cleveland, and Indiana in this postseason.
Dallas has the shooters – the bigs who stretch the floor and the guards – and the inside scoring talent to achieve a serious point total even against high-rated defenses like OKC's.
This is just the spot for things to come together offensively for the Mavericks, and we might get a lax Boston, too, while Dallas' defense will continue to be locked in as one of the NBA's highest-rated.
I'm seeing a 111-102-type win for Dallas in Game 4.
Best Bet: Mavericks ML at -117 with BetOnline
