Game 3 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets
Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers
Saturday, May 25, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Tyrese Haliburton's Injury
Boston is more heavily favored than it normally would be, because Indiana's star point guard, Tyrese Haliburton is injured.
After reaggravating his hamstring injury, failing to play through this injury in the second half of Game 2, and reportedly limping to the team bus after the game, Haliburton is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game.
If Haliburton does play, so much the better: we'd be getting free points from oddsmakers.
But my primary point is that the Pacers are just fine without him.
I do recognize that Haliburton is a very good player. But one of my main points is to apply the rally angle.
When a star player goes down, his teammates tend to step up to make up for his absence.
I also want to talk about Indiana's depth.
T.J. McConnell
Haliburton's backup is T.J. McConnell.
McConnell will therefore be the main player to see an increase in minutes in Haliburton's absence.
More minutes for McConnell is a good thing: analysts recognized this most vociferously when they heavily criticized Indiana's head coach for benching him at the end of Game 2 in the last round against the Knicks.
McConnell showed then, as he's shown many times before, that he can lead his team in the postseason.
He has excellent handles, partly as a result of his smaller size, that allow him to be efficient inside the arc.
Moreover, he does a great job of generating assists, as his postseason stats indicate.
On defense, he is a characteristically pesky on-ball defender, as evident in the ability he showed to limit Jalen Brunson's field goal efficiency in the last round, whereas Haliburton struggled when guarding Brunson.
If you look strictly at the point guard position, then it is true on paper that, with McConnell, you might get slightly worse offense than with Haliburton – because Haliburton can shoot the three more efficiently – but you get better defense. As I will discuss, the rally angle will, in reality, more than make up for the slightly diminished offensive potential that might exist on paper.
Pacers' Depth
When playing without Haliburton, Indiana is much better this year than it was last year, as evident in its improved win record.
The Pacers remain dangerous without Haliburton because of their scoring depth.
Pascal Siakam is key here.
He is the go-to guy whose effectivity in the post and in the mid-range make him reliable when the shot clock is running low.
Especially without their top rim protector, the Celtics are struggling to defend him: Siakam scored 24 points in Game 1 and 28 in Game 2.
Indiana has several guys who are capable of scoring in double digits, including the big-time shot-taker Andrew Nembhard, who is efficient from deep, the floor-spacer center Myles Turner, who also shoots well from deep, Siakam's backup Obi Toppin, whose outlook improves with Boston's backup rim protector Luke Kornet injured, and Aaron Nesmith or Ben Sheppard could come up with another good shooting performance.
Conclusion About Haliburton's Offense
As evident in, for example, Game 2 against Milwaukee, Haliburton is often a passive observer, and yet Indiana remains fine without him.
To say that Indiana's offense might take a small step back in Haliburton's offense requires assuming the best version of Haliburton who is aggressive and efficient from deep, and it requires forgetting both the rally angle and Indiana's depth of scoring. Plus, we get more of McConnell's pesky defense.
Indiana at Home
Indiana is 6-0 at home partly because its defense steps up with greater energy and stronger overall play in its home venue.
The Pacers held the Knicks to as few as 89 points.
Boston's offense has, throughout the postseason, relied disproportionately on three-point shooting. Its outlook declines on the road because its three-point conversion rate drops by almost three percent on the road relative to its conversion rate at home.
Bonus Consideration
Boston reliably loses focus in one game in a given series.
In Rounds 1 and 2, the Celtics had their low-focus game after their first double-digit win in a given series.
Up 2-0, with Haliburton injured, and coming off a double-digit win, Boston is in a bad spot psychologically.
Takeaway
Even with a focused Boston team, we are essentially getting free points in Haliburton's absence. Indiana is a deep scoring team, effective both in the half-court and in transition, that is well-built to maximize the rally angle. McConnell's uptick in minutes plus home court will also help Indiana's defense.
I find that the spread is rather absurd, for the above reasons.
While the world might be ready to count out Indiana, the Pacers are a tough team: in the last round, they came back from 0-2 and 2-3 series deficits. In Game 1 of this series, they nearly won despite being blown out to start the game.
Especially with them at home, you can't count them out.
Best Bet: Pacers +7.5 at -108 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Saturday, May 25, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Home and Away
Minnesota is dogged because it is playing on the road.
This is generally fair, because this is just what oddsmakers do, but it's also wrong in this specific instance.
The Timberwolves actually play better on the road than they do at home: in Round 1, they beat Phoenix twice on the road; in Round 2, they beat Denver three times on the road.
Moreover, Dallas has already lost two games at home. The Mavs won two other home games by a combined total of five points.
With both Game 1 and Game 2 of this current series having been close – Dallas won both by a combined total of four points – I am eager to play the underdog in this game because playing on the road is not the obstacle – for Minnesota, specifically – that oddsmakers are treating it as.
Star Players
Minnesota has led for much of Game 1 and Game 2 and nearly won both games despite the fact that its top two scorers have failed to show up.
With the demonstrable shooting potential of guys like Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid, Minnesota clearly has the depth of scoring talent to make up for bad games from Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns to the extent that they can stay within three points.
But, while Minnesota will continue to draw strength from its supporting players, it will also be able to rely at least on Edwards to finally step up.
Edward is just too good to keep playing poorly, especially with the world shining this negative light on him after his poor performance in Games 1 and 2 – superstars tend to respond to this criticism.
At his best, he makes very tough shots. He takes games over with his driving, finishing, and pull-up abilities.
Minnesota has the shooters with guys like McDaniels and Mike Conley and the floor-spacing potential with guys like Towns and Reid to open up the interior for the rim-attacking Edwards to rediscover his best self.
Minnesota's Defense
On defense, the Timberwolves have achieved long stretches of scoreless play. They held the Mavericks to below 110 points in both games.
While the defense can certainly do better, let's not act like it's been catastrophic.
Third-place Coach of the Year finisher Chris Finch will make schematic adjustments. The team will rotate better. The defense, overall, will overcome matchup difficulties, just like it did in the first round against a Phoenix team that had swept it in the regular season because of its matchup advantages.
Minnesota has too many good pieces in defense to not play better: a characteristically excellent on-ball defender in Jaden McDaniels, who helped lock down Devin Booker in the first round, for example, guys like Mike Conley who ably fight through screens, four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, who is an elite rim protector.
Frankly, Minnesota will still win if Edwards or Towns plays better. Improving on defense will only increase the margin of victory.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +3.5 at -114 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers
Saturday, May 25, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Tyrese Haliburton's Injury
Boston is more heavily favored than it normally would be, because Indiana's star point guard, Tyrese Haliburton is injured.
After reaggravating his hamstring injury, failing to play through this injury in the second half of Game 2, and reportedly limping to the team bus after the game, Haliburton is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game.
If Haliburton does play, so much the better: we'd be getting free points from oddsmakers.
But my primary point is that the Pacers are just fine without him.
I do recognize that Haliburton is a very good player. But one of my main points is to apply the rally angle.
When a star player goes down, his teammates tend to step up to make up for his absence.
I also want to talk about Indiana's depth.
T.J. McConnell
Haliburton's backup is T.J. McConnell.
McConnell will therefore be the main player to see an increase in minutes in Haliburton's absence.
More minutes for McConnell is a good thing: analysts recognized this most vociferously when they heavily criticized Indiana's head coach for benching him at the end of Game 2 in the last round against the Knicks.
McConnell showed then, as he's shown many times before, that he can lead his team in the postseason.
He has excellent handles, partly as a result of his smaller size, that allow him to be efficient inside the arc.
Moreover, he does a great job of generating assists, as his postseason stats indicate.
On defense, he is a characteristically pesky on-ball defender, as evident in the ability he showed to limit Jalen Brunson's field goal efficiency in the last round, whereas Haliburton struggled when guarding Brunson.
If you look strictly at the point guard position, then it is true on paper that, with McConnell, you might get slightly worse offense than with Haliburton – because Haliburton can shoot the three more efficiently – but you get better defense. As I will discuss, the rally angle will, in reality, more than make up for the slightly diminished offensive potential that might exist on paper.
Pacers' Depth
When playing without Haliburton, Indiana is much better this year than it was last year, as evident in its improved win record.
The Pacers remain dangerous without Haliburton because of their scoring depth.
Pascal Siakam is key here.
He is the go-to guy whose effectivity in the post and in the mid-range make him reliable when the shot clock is running low.
Especially without their top rim protector, the Celtics are struggling to defend him: Siakam scored 24 points in Game 1 and 28 in Game 2.
Indiana has several guys who are capable of scoring in double digits, including the big-time shot-taker Andrew Nembhard, who is efficient from deep, the floor-spacer center Myles Turner, who also shoots well from deep, Siakam's backup Obi Toppin, whose outlook improves with Boston's backup rim protector Luke Kornet injured, and Aaron Nesmith or Ben Sheppard could come up with another good shooting performance.
Conclusion About Haliburton's Offense
As evident in, for example, Game 2 against Milwaukee, Haliburton is often a passive observer, and yet Indiana remains fine without him.
To say that Indiana's offense might take a small step back in Haliburton's offense requires assuming the best version of Haliburton who is aggressive and efficient from deep, and it requires forgetting both the rally angle and Indiana's depth of scoring. Plus, we get more of McConnell's pesky defense.
Indiana at Home
Indiana is 6-0 at home partly because its defense steps up with greater energy and stronger overall play in its home venue.
The Pacers held the Knicks to as few as 89 points.
Boston's offense has, throughout the postseason, relied disproportionately on three-point shooting. Its outlook declines on the road because its three-point conversion rate drops by almost three percent on the road relative to its conversion rate at home.
Bonus Consideration
Boston reliably loses focus in one game in a given series.
In Rounds 1 and 2, the Celtics had their low-focus game after their first double-digit win in a given series.
Up 2-0, with Haliburton injured, and coming off a double-digit win, Boston is in a bad spot psychologically.
Takeaway
Even with a focused Boston team, we are essentially getting free points in Haliburton's absence. Indiana is a deep scoring team, effective both in the half-court and in transition, that is well-built to maximize the rally angle. McConnell's uptick in minutes plus home court will also help Indiana's defense.
I find that the spread is rather absurd, for the above reasons.
While the world might be ready to count out Indiana, the Pacers are a tough team: in the last round, they came back from 0-2 and 2-3 series deficits. In Game 1 of this series, they nearly won despite being blown out to start the game.
Especially with them at home, you can't count them out.
Best Bet: Pacers +7.5 at -108 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Saturday, May 25, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Home and Away
Minnesota is dogged because it is playing on the road.
This is generally fair, because this is just what oddsmakers do, but it's also wrong in this specific instance.
The Timberwolves actually play better on the road than they do at home: in Round 1, they beat Phoenix twice on the road; in Round 2, they beat Denver three times on the road.
Moreover, Dallas has already lost two games at home. The Mavs won two other home games by a combined total of five points.
With both Game 1 and Game 2 of this current series having been close – Dallas won both by a combined total of four points – I am eager to play the underdog in this game because playing on the road is not the obstacle – for Minnesota, specifically – that oddsmakers are treating it as.
Star Players
Minnesota has led for much of Game 1 and Game 2 and nearly won both games despite the fact that its top two scorers have failed to show up.
With the demonstrable shooting potential of guys like Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid, Minnesota clearly has the depth of scoring talent to make up for bad games from Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns to the extent that they can stay within three points.
But, while Minnesota will continue to draw strength from its supporting players, it will also be able to rely at least on Edwards to finally step up.
Edward is just too good to keep playing poorly, especially with the world shining this negative light on him after his poor performance in Games 1 and 2 – superstars tend to respond to this criticism.
At his best, he makes very tough shots. He takes games over with his driving, finishing, and pull-up abilities.
Minnesota has the shooters with guys like McDaniels and Mike Conley and the floor-spacing potential with guys like Towns and Reid to open up the interior for the rim-attacking Edwards to rediscover his best self.
Minnesota's Defense
On defense, the Timberwolves have achieved long stretches of scoreless play. They held the Mavericks to below 110 points in both games.
While the defense can certainly do better, let's not act like it's been catastrophic.
Third-place Coach of the Year finisher Chris Finch will make schematic adjustments. The team will rotate better. The defense, overall, will overcome matchup difficulties, just like it did in the first round against a Phoenix team that had swept it in the regular season because of its matchup advantages.
Minnesota has too many good pieces in defense to not play better: a characteristically excellent on-ball defender in Jaden McDaniels, who helped lock down Devin Booker in the first round, for example, guys like Mike Conley who ably fight through screens, four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, who is an elite rim protector.
Frankly, Minnesota will still win if Edwards or Towns plays better. Improving on defense will only increase the margin of victory.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +3.5 at -114 with BetOnline
