Game 2 Heat-Nuggets: 3 Player Props: Three-Point Shooters to Create High-Scoring Affair
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Sunday, June 4, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
Denver's Advantage Inside
What is critically relevant to Denver's advantage from behind the arc -- and to Denver's top role player, Michael Porter Jr., who is a dangerous three-point shooter -- is its size advantage inside.
With the likes of bully Aaron Gordon, Denver shot 18-of-26 within five feet of the basket in Game 1.
Also notably, star Nikola Jokic was too much for Bam Adebayo and the Heat interior defense.
Miami knows that it is in trouble if it cannot stop the Nuggets from scoring next to the basket.
Denver's inside scoring dominance is relevant to its three-point shooting advantages because the Heat know that they need to do something to bolster their defense next to the basket.
The classic tactic for a lesser-sized defense is to devote more defenders inside in order to compensate for the opposing offense's greater size.
One problem with doing that is that Jokic is a characteristically great passer -- in the regular season, he ranked third with 9.8 assists per game; on Thursday, he had 14 assists.
Michael Porter Jr.
My favorite Nuggets' three-point shooter to invest in is Michael Porter Jr.
MPJ had a rare off night from behind the arc in Game 1.
In addition to his usual efficiency -- he's a career 41.7-percent three-point shooter -- one must expect him to bounce back because he has the opportunities.
In Game 1, he only made one of five open three-point attempts and zero of two wide-open three-point attempts.
Against a Heat defense that concedes a lot of open three-point looks, he'll continue having sundry chances.
Best Bet: Michael Porter Jr. over 2.5 three point field goals made at -148 with BetOnline
Denver's Interior Defense
Miami will have an advantage from behind the arc thanks to the Nuggets' defensive strategy.
It was evident in Game 1 that Denver was aware that other teams have exploited its interior defense and, with Jimmy Butler on the other end, that it must have a gameplan inside on defense.
The Nuggets wanted to focus on their interior defense by devoting extra defenders to protecting the paint.
They also used their size advantage and employed drop coverage to create negligible operating room for Heat scorers inside the paint.
For Game 2, it is likely that they will continue with this gameplan because it worked so well in Game 1.
Max Strus
What this means is that Miami will again get an unusually high number of chances from behind the arc.
In Game 1, the Heat attempted 39 three-pointers but lost the game partly because they failed to punish the Nuggets.
Miami will not only shoot a lot of threes because Denver's defense allows it to.
On the season, the Heat attempt the 10th-most threes per game.
They value three-point shooting and they have especially the guard play to move the ball well.
I especially like Max Strus: he was 0-for-5 on his wide-open three-point attempts in Game 1.
Denver will not fear him, so he'll get around nine chances from deep again.
Asking him to make three three-pointers is reasonable for him given his usual shooting percentages.
Let's invest in his point total, instead of taking the "over" on his three-point field goals made, to avoid the heavy chalk.
Best Bet: Max Strus over 8.5 points at -114 with BetOnline
Denver's Defensive Focus
As Game 1 showed, Denver is focused on limiting Jimmy Butler's scoring output.
The Nuggets employed drop coverage and devoted extra defenders inside.
Because Jimmy Butler depends on scoring inside, he could do little on offense against Denver's onslaught of size and numbers.
In Game 1, he attempted only 14 field goals and zero free throws, resulting in a 13-point output, which is well below the point total that he would need to reach in Game 2 for his "over" in points.
The Nuggets will continue this focus because they know that Miami depends most heavily on Butler, who is by far its leading scorer.
Jimmy Butler's Vulnerability
Butler is vulnerable to scoring fewer points because he has repeatedly proven content with allowing teammates to take over.
In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, he only attempted 13 field goals while the Heat amassed 128 points.
That game represents Butler's growing tendency to fail to insist on leading the team in scoring and to allow his teammates to take over from behind the arc where he himself is characteristically ineffective.
With Bam Adebayo discovering himself offensively, the Heat ball-screen game, possibly the return of Tyler Herro and its overall three-point shooting potential, the Heat will score plenty to punish Denver's defense for caring so much about Butler.
Guarding Butler
Butler is also vulnerable to scoring fewer points because Denver knows how to guard him.
Nugget defenders knew to stay vertical and otherwise to defend legally, notwithstanding his inclination to throw his body at defenders in order to collect fouls.
Best Bet: Jimmy Butler under 26.5 points at -132 with BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Sunday, June 4, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
- Miami needs to focus on limiting Denver's scoring inside despite Denver's size advantage
- Michael Porter Jr. normally gets a lot of chances from behind the arc
- MPJ is normally an efficient three-point shooter who merely struggled to take advantage in Game 1 of chances that he typically does a better job of using
Denver's Advantage Inside
What is critically relevant to Denver's advantage from behind the arc -- and to Denver's top role player, Michael Porter Jr., who is a dangerous three-point shooter -- is its size advantage inside.
With the likes of bully Aaron Gordon, Denver shot 18-of-26 within five feet of the basket in Game 1.
Also notably, star Nikola Jokic was too much for Bam Adebayo and the Heat interior defense.
Miami knows that it is in trouble if it cannot stop the Nuggets from scoring next to the basket.
Denver's inside scoring dominance is relevant to its three-point shooting advantages because the Heat know that they need to do something to bolster their defense next to the basket.
The classic tactic for a lesser-sized defense is to devote more defenders inside in order to compensate for the opposing offense's greater size.
One problem with doing that is that Jokic is a characteristically great passer -- in the regular season, he ranked third with 9.8 assists per game; on Thursday, he had 14 assists.
Michael Porter Jr.
My favorite Nuggets' three-point shooter to invest in is Michael Porter Jr.
MPJ had a rare off night from behind the arc in Game 1.
In addition to his usual efficiency -- he's a career 41.7-percent three-point shooter -- one must expect him to bounce back because he has the opportunities.
In Game 1, he only made one of five open three-point attempts and zero of two wide-open three-point attempts.
Against a Heat defense that concedes a lot of open three-point looks, he'll continue having sundry chances.
Best Bet: Michael Porter Jr. over 2.5 three point field goals made at -148 with BetOnline
- Denver wants to turn Miami into shooters
- Max Strus gets a lot of three-point shooting volume, and he got a lot of great looks in Game 1
- Given his season-long shooting percentages, one should expect Strus to make many more shots in Game 2
Denver's Interior Defense
Miami will have an advantage from behind the arc thanks to the Nuggets' defensive strategy.
It was evident in Game 1 that Denver was aware that other teams have exploited its interior defense and, with Jimmy Butler on the other end, that it must have a gameplan inside on defense.
The Nuggets wanted to focus on their interior defense by devoting extra defenders to protecting the paint.
They also used their size advantage and employed drop coverage to create negligible operating room for Heat scorers inside the paint.
For Game 2, it is likely that they will continue with this gameplan because it worked so well in Game 1.
Max Strus
What this means is that Miami will again get an unusually high number of chances from behind the arc.
In Game 1, the Heat attempted 39 three-pointers but lost the game partly because they failed to punish the Nuggets.
Miami will not only shoot a lot of threes because Denver's defense allows it to.
On the season, the Heat attempt the 10th-most threes per game.
They value three-point shooting and they have especially the guard play to move the ball well.
I especially like Max Strus: he was 0-for-5 on his wide-open three-point attempts in Game 1.
Denver will not fear him, so he'll get around nine chances from deep again.
Asking him to make three three-pointers is reasonable for him given his usual shooting percentages.
Let's invest in his point total, instead of taking the "over" on his three-point field goals made, to avoid the heavy chalk.
Best Bet: Max Strus over 8.5 points at -114 with BetOnline
- Jimmy Butler can do little against a defense determined to protect the paint
- On defense, the Nuggets want to employ drop coverage and send extra help inside
- Butler has plenty of teammates who showed great scoring potential in Game 1 -- these are the guys to whom Butler will take a back seat in Game 2
Denver's Defensive Focus
As Game 1 showed, Denver is focused on limiting Jimmy Butler's scoring output.
The Nuggets employed drop coverage and devoted extra defenders inside.
Because Jimmy Butler depends on scoring inside, he could do little on offense against Denver's onslaught of size and numbers.
In Game 1, he attempted only 14 field goals and zero free throws, resulting in a 13-point output, which is well below the point total that he would need to reach in Game 2 for his "over" in points.
The Nuggets will continue this focus because they know that Miami depends most heavily on Butler, who is by far its leading scorer.
Jimmy Butler's Vulnerability
Butler is vulnerable to scoring fewer points because he has repeatedly proven content with allowing teammates to take over.
In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, he only attempted 13 field goals while the Heat amassed 128 points.
That game represents Butler's growing tendency to fail to insist on leading the team in scoring and to allow his teammates to take over from behind the arc where he himself is characteristically ineffective.
With Bam Adebayo discovering himself offensively, the Heat ball-screen game, possibly the return of Tyler Herro and its overall three-point shooting potential, the Heat will score plenty to punish Denver's defense for caring so much about Butler.
Guarding Butler
Butler is also vulnerable to scoring fewer points because Denver knows how to guard him.
Nugget defenders knew to stay vertical and otherwise to defend legally, notwithstanding his inclination to throw his body at defenders in order to collect fouls.
Best Bet: Jimmy Butler under 26.5 points at -132 with BetOnline
