Game 2 Heat-Nuggets: 3 Player Props: Jokic and Murray Are Too Much for Heat
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Sunday, June 4, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
Gabe Vincent's Importance
In Game 1, Gabe Vincent played 38 minutes for the Heat and scored 19 points.
As one would generally expect -- because more minutes entails more opportunities to score more points -- there is a positive correlation between Vincent's minute and point totals.
In these playoffs, in the nine games in which he has played for 32 or more minutes, he has scored 15 or more points eight times.
This trend is relevant to tonight's game because over/under for Vincent's point total is 13.5.
I like the "over" because I expect Vincent to play a lot of minutes again.
Valuable on Defense
This expectation is well-founded because of Vincent's strong defense, which is evident in the solid defensive rating that he has earned in each of his NBA seasons.
Relevantly to tonight, Vincent is an effective zone defender.
Miami employed more zone in the fourth quarter and, as evident in its scoring run and in Denver's low PPP (points per possession total) against this defensive scheme, Miami's zone was effective.
Consequently, we can expect more zone defense from the Heat tonight.
One thing that Miami will want Vincent to do is to make it tough for Denver's guards to cross half-court and initiate offense.
Valuable on Offense
Miami will also want Vincent to play a lot of minutes so that he can amass three-pointers.
In his last three games, he is 10-for-19 from deep.
His regularly high volume and strong efficiency from deep -- his current postseason three-point percentage is 40 -- make him a reliable scorer.
Best Bet: Gabe Vincent over 13.5 points at -109 with BetOnline
Nikola Jokic's Unique Scoring Potential
There are so many ways in which Denver's perennial MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic, can score, especially against the Heat.
Jokic's scoring potential has been manifested by the variety of ways in which Miami tried to limit his productivity in Game 1.
When Miami switches on ball-screens, he is no longer guarded by Bam Adebayo but by someone like Haywood Highsmith, who is 6-4, 220 pounds.
Jokic, who is 6-11 and 284 pounds, also has two inches and almost 30 pounds on Adebayo.
When the Heat employed drop coverage, Jokic could flex his shooting ability.
In this last sense, Jokic actually underachieved in Game 1, although he still managed 27 points.
Whereas he made one three in Game 1, he had converted three of six three-point attempts in his previous game, which shows his potential for three-point makes and three-point shooting volume.
But his size advantage still allows him to be useful as a roller when the Heat do employ drop coverage.
The point is that the Heat tried many different defensive strategies in Game 1 and did not stop Jokic from achieving his stat line -- in addition to 27 points, he accrued 10 rebounds and 14 assists.
If one wants to argue that the Heat will make adjustments for Game 2 in order to limit Jokic, Game 1 offers a sufficient basis for refuting such an argument.
Because his size advantage grants him rebounding prowess and he is one of the NBA's top assist-getters, such as when he operates from the middle against the zone, we shouldn't just bet on his point total.
Best Bet: Nikola Jokic over 51.5 points + rebounds + assists at -134 with BetOnline
Higher-Scoring Affair
Tonight's game is going to be a much higher-scoring game, a back-and-forth sort of game where each team's offense feeds off the other team's scoring, because both teams will take better advantage of their many great opportunities behind the arc.
One player who underachieved for Denver in Game 1 is Jamal Murray.
He made zero of his two open three-point attempts and one of his three wide-open three-point attempts.
Miami is a team that normally allows a lot of open three-point attempts -- among all playoff teams this season, the Heat allow the highest frequency of open three-point attempts -- so one should expect those chances behind the arc to be there again for Murray.
Murray is normally much more efficient.
In the regular season, he shot 45.4 percent from deep, and he is shooting 39.2 percent from deep in this postseason.
Thus, one should expect him to shoot more effectively from deep tonight.
Despite doing very little from behind the arc, Murray still managed 26 points.
He contributes to Denver's overall size advantage inside, which enables him to attack the basket effectively.
With his efficiency from deep, he'll have no problem exceeding 26 points tonight.
The Pick
For our bet, we can also take advantage of Murray's excellent passing.
Miami is again going to try out strategies against Denver's pick-and-roll that limit Murray's scoring chances, in which case he'll pass to another prolific scorer in Jokic or to a teammate who will be well-spaced behind the arc.
With Denver undefeated at home, we can also count on a Nuggets' win.
Best Bet: Jamal Murray 25+ points, 6+ assists, Denver to win at +142 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Sunday, June 4, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
- Gabe Vincent will play a lot of minutes again because Miami needs him badly on both ends of the floor
- There is a positive correlation between Vincent playing 32+ minutes and his scoring 15+ points
- Vincent will especially showcase how he is a strong three-point shooter
Gabe Vincent's Importance
In Game 1, Gabe Vincent played 38 minutes for the Heat and scored 19 points.
As one would generally expect -- because more minutes entails more opportunities to score more points -- there is a positive correlation between Vincent's minute and point totals.
In these playoffs, in the nine games in which he has played for 32 or more minutes, he has scored 15 or more points eight times.
This trend is relevant to tonight's game because over/under for Vincent's point total is 13.5.
I like the "over" because I expect Vincent to play a lot of minutes again.
Valuable on Defense
This expectation is well-founded because of Vincent's strong defense, which is evident in the solid defensive rating that he has earned in each of his NBA seasons.
Relevantly to tonight, Vincent is an effective zone defender.
Miami employed more zone in the fourth quarter and, as evident in its scoring run and in Denver's low PPP (points per possession total) against this defensive scheme, Miami's zone was effective.
Consequently, we can expect more zone defense from the Heat tonight.
One thing that Miami will want Vincent to do is to make it tough for Denver's guards to cross half-court and initiate offense.
Valuable on Offense
Miami will also want Vincent to play a lot of minutes so that he can amass three-pointers.
In his last three games, he is 10-for-19 from deep.
His regularly high volume and strong efficiency from deep -- his current postseason three-point percentage is 40 -- make him a reliable scorer.
Best Bet: Gabe Vincent over 13.5 points at -109 with BetOnline
- Nikola Jokic is too big and strong for Miami inside
- Jokic's offensive prowess is well-tested against a variety of Heat defensive tactics
- Jokic will also get a lot of rebounds and assists again
Nikola Jokic's Unique Scoring Potential
There are so many ways in which Denver's perennial MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic, can score, especially against the Heat.
Jokic's scoring potential has been manifested by the variety of ways in which Miami tried to limit his productivity in Game 1.
When Miami switches on ball-screens, he is no longer guarded by Bam Adebayo but by someone like Haywood Highsmith, who is 6-4, 220 pounds.
Jokic, who is 6-11 and 284 pounds, also has two inches and almost 30 pounds on Adebayo.
When the Heat employed drop coverage, Jokic could flex his shooting ability.
In this last sense, Jokic actually underachieved in Game 1, although he still managed 27 points.
Whereas he made one three in Game 1, he had converted three of six three-point attempts in his previous game, which shows his potential for three-point makes and three-point shooting volume.
But his size advantage still allows him to be useful as a roller when the Heat do employ drop coverage.
The point is that the Heat tried many different defensive strategies in Game 1 and did not stop Jokic from achieving his stat line -- in addition to 27 points, he accrued 10 rebounds and 14 assists.
If one wants to argue that the Heat will make adjustments for Game 2 in order to limit Jokic, Game 1 offers a sufficient basis for refuting such an argument.
Because his size advantage grants him rebounding prowess and he is one of the NBA's top assist-getters, such as when he operates from the middle against the zone, we shouldn't just bet on his point total.
Best Bet: Nikola Jokic over 51.5 points + rebounds + assists at -134 with BetOnline
- Jamal Murray has a size advantage inside
- Murray is due for a more efficient three-point output
- Miami allows a lot of open threes
Higher-Scoring Affair
Tonight's game is going to be a much higher-scoring game, a back-and-forth sort of game where each team's offense feeds off the other team's scoring, because both teams will take better advantage of their many great opportunities behind the arc.
One player who underachieved for Denver in Game 1 is Jamal Murray.
He made zero of his two open three-point attempts and one of his three wide-open three-point attempts.
Miami is a team that normally allows a lot of open three-point attempts -- among all playoff teams this season, the Heat allow the highest frequency of open three-point attempts -- so one should expect those chances behind the arc to be there again for Murray.
Murray is normally much more efficient.
In the regular season, he shot 45.4 percent from deep, and he is shooting 39.2 percent from deep in this postseason.
Thus, one should expect him to shoot more effectively from deep tonight.
Despite doing very little from behind the arc, Murray still managed 26 points.
He contributes to Denver's overall size advantage inside, which enables him to attack the basket effectively.
With his efficiency from deep, he'll have no problem exceeding 26 points tonight.
The Pick
For our bet, we can also take advantage of Murray's excellent passing.
Miami is again going to try out strategies against Denver's pick-and-roll that limit Murray's scoring chances, in which case he'll pass to another prolific scorer in Jokic or to a teammate who will be well-spaced behind the arc.
With Denver undefeated at home, we can also count on a Nuggets' win.
Best Bet: Jamal Murray 25+ points, 6+ assists, Denver to win at +142 with BetOnline
