Game 2 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Boston's Defense Will Step Up
Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Boston Was Rusty
Following its long layover after it eliminated Cleveland in five games, Boston was not close to its best in Game 1.
On offense, as part of their rhythm issues, the Celtics committed sundry foolish turnovers, many of which led to easy points in transition for the Pacers.
Moreover, the Celtics underperformed from behind the arc, converting threes at a rate of over six percent lower than their average at home.
But Boston was especially disappointing on defense.
The Celtics' struggles on defense largely relate to typical Game 1 circumstances: they had to adjust to facing a new team, one that plays a style of offense that, particularly due to its focus on pace, differs starkly from the Miami and Cleveland offenses that Boston had faced in the last two rounds.
Adjustments
I like Boston's defense to improve strongly because its adjustments from Game 1 will carry over to Game 2.
The Celtics will limit Indiana's top offensive weapons.
In Game 1, Myles Turner was one of three Pacers players to exceed 15 points – Turner scored 23.
But the Celtics limited his scoring potential by sticking Jayson Tatum onto him in order to preclude Turner from exploiting his original primary defender's difficulty with accounting for him on the perimeter.
Tyrese Haliburton, moreover, was Indiana's leading scorer and is someone whom Boston can contain.
Six-time All-Defensive Team member Jrue Holiday found success limiting his attack abilities by guarding him more aggressively.
Boston also made adjustments in its pick-and-roll defense that forced Haliburton to pass to a teammate who had to settle for a long two-point attempt.
Haliburton was able to buoy his point total by thriving from deep for a second straight game, but his success from behind the arc tends to decline after two great shooting performances.
Pascal Siakam is Indiana's likeliest player to succeed, but he can't do it all by himself, especially with Indiana's bench already playing as well as it did in Game 1.
Al Horford also has a good reputation as a rim protector, and his annually excellent defensive rating bears this out. So he will be able to offer Siakam more resistance at the basket.
Boston's Offense
The Celtics will look more in-rhythm now that they've ended their long layover.
As evident in its defensive rating, Indiana has an awful defense overall.
Not that the Pacers had much success stopping Jalen Brunson, when they did, they were often taking advantage of Brunson's smallness.
Guys like Aaron Nesmith, though, don't have that length advantage over the 6-8 Tatum.
Tatum and Jaylen Brown will continue to have their way against Indiana's porous defense.
Tatum and Brown are also surrounded by great shooters, who help the team be the top three-point shooting team in the NBA.
One of those efficient shooters is Derrick White who demonstrated his characteristic prowess as a facilitator by accumulating nine assists in Game 1.
Payton Pritchard is also very tough to guard and is someone who, after doing little in Game 1, is primed to get back to scoring in double digits.
The Situation
Indiana's Game 1 loss must feel like a gut punch after it had what would have been a crucial series-opening victory within its grasp.
The Pacers encountered a similar situation in their last series. They responded to their tough Game 1 loss in that series by failing to cover the spread in Game 2.
Even if Indiana responds maturely to its Game 1 disappointment, the main thing is that the Celtics will be locked-in and will play with a chip on their shoulders after hearing people say that the Pacers should have won, that the Pacers choked.
Boston, in both Rounds 1 and 2, lost Game 2, but those losses followed a blowout win in Game 1. The fact that Game 1 was close will benefit Boston in Game 2 from a psychological standpoint.
Takeaway
Even more important than Boston's mentality is the fact that it figured out valuable adjustments particularly in its pick-and-roll coverage.
The Celtics will also clean up their transition defense, now that they've experienced the Game 1 shock of facing a Pacers offense that differs from the Heat and Cavaliers offenses that they had faced ten times.
Their offense will thrive even more with better rhythm, with the long layover behind them, and more efficient shooting.
Most people think that Indiana will cover the spread in Game 2 because it was so close to doing so in Game 1. But the key point is actually that, numerous times throughout Game 1, Boston was very close to blowing the game open.
The factors discussed above will ensure that the Celtics win Game 2 by double digits.
Best Bets: Celtics -9 at -110 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Game 1 Takeaway
The main takeaway from Game 1 is that Dallas won despite underperforming tremendously from behind the arc.
In Game 1, the Mavericks made six threes and shot 24 percent from deep. Conversely, Minnesota made 18 threes and shot 36.7 percent from deep.
This disparity, that benefited Minnesota tremendously in Game 1, cannot be expected to continue.
The counterpoint is that Minnesota's top players did not perform nearly as well as Dallas'.
However, the Timberwolves were also able to get big games out of Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, and Naz Reid.
Those players are unreliable on offense, though, as their game-by-game point totals show.
The Timberwolves are going to need big games from Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, but I will argue that both players will disappoint.
Anthony Edwards' Outlook
Putting aside the fact that he has been off offensively since his hard fall in the last round, Dallas presents a tough matchup for him.
On defense, it's either him or Mike Conley who will try to guard Kyrie Irving.
Edwards is the best option, but Irving with his quickness and his overall motion is tiring to stick with.
Even if Edwards had unlimited endurance, Dallas' defensive philosophy will hurt him.
Edwards is known as a star because of his success inside the arc.
While he thrived from deep in Game 1 – and still failed to reach 20 points – he is a 35-percent career three-point shooter. He wants to attack the basket.
But Dallas is well-built to limit dribble penetration. The Mavericks wall off the paint.
This is why Edwards and company took so many threes in Game 1.
McDaniels, Edwards, and Reid thriving from deep still wasn't enough.
Karl-Anthony Towns' Outlook
Towns struggled because he shot poorly from behind the arc once again.
He also lacks the physical ability to punish smaller defenders in the post.
His ability to score around the basket will be minimized by a Dallas defense allowing the fewest field goals and the lowest conversion rate within five feet of the basket.
Dallas' Stars
Unlike Minnesota, Dallas is able to lean on its two top scorers.
Luka Doncic is difficult for any defender to try to contain, and Minnesota lacks a defender who can keep up with Irving – Nickeil Alexander-Walker is Edwards' backup and is known as a good defender, but he brings nothing on the offensive end.
The main problem is Minnesota's ball-screen defense.
Doncic and Irving easily navigate Minnesota's various ball-screen coverage attempts.
The Timberwolves are limited by Rudy Gobert's lack of versatility. Gobert is hapless on the perimeter, but drop coverage also makes it too easy for Luka and Kyrie to thrive in the mid-range.
Dallas also has too many counters for Minnesota's attempt, which it tried late in Game 1 to no avail, to blitz Luka.
The Mavericks are used to seeing Luka blitzed, and they are well-prepared with numerous guys who can score at the basket or shooters who can attack close-outs from defenders rotating to them.
Takeaway
With stronger three-point shooting and more characteristically efficient bench play, the Mavericks will win Game 2 even if their two star scorers were for some reason to decline.
Whereas the Timberwolves were struggling to find an answer to Dallas' pick-and-roll attack, Dallas with the versatile Dereck Lively succeeded with various looks in its ball-screen defense, which befuddled the Timberwolves' point guard.
I find both to be sustainable: Minnesota's defensive struggles are rooted in Gobert's longstanding versatility issues and in the incessant superior one-on-one play of Doncic and Irving; its offensive problems are rooted in Edwards' perpetual reliance on attacking the basket.
Best Bet: Mavericks +5 at -110 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Boston Was Rusty
Following its long layover after it eliminated Cleveland in five games, Boston was not close to its best in Game 1.
On offense, as part of their rhythm issues, the Celtics committed sundry foolish turnovers, many of which led to easy points in transition for the Pacers.
Moreover, the Celtics underperformed from behind the arc, converting threes at a rate of over six percent lower than their average at home.
But Boston was especially disappointing on defense.
The Celtics' struggles on defense largely relate to typical Game 1 circumstances: they had to adjust to facing a new team, one that plays a style of offense that, particularly due to its focus on pace, differs starkly from the Miami and Cleveland offenses that Boston had faced in the last two rounds.
Adjustments
I like Boston's defense to improve strongly because its adjustments from Game 1 will carry over to Game 2.
The Celtics will limit Indiana's top offensive weapons.
In Game 1, Myles Turner was one of three Pacers players to exceed 15 points – Turner scored 23.
But the Celtics limited his scoring potential by sticking Jayson Tatum onto him in order to preclude Turner from exploiting his original primary defender's difficulty with accounting for him on the perimeter.
Tyrese Haliburton, moreover, was Indiana's leading scorer and is someone whom Boston can contain.
Six-time All-Defensive Team member Jrue Holiday found success limiting his attack abilities by guarding him more aggressively.
Boston also made adjustments in its pick-and-roll defense that forced Haliburton to pass to a teammate who had to settle for a long two-point attempt.
Haliburton was able to buoy his point total by thriving from deep for a second straight game, but his success from behind the arc tends to decline after two great shooting performances.
Pascal Siakam is Indiana's likeliest player to succeed, but he can't do it all by himself, especially with Indiana's bench already playing as well as it did in Game 1.
Al Horford also has a good reputation as a rim protector, and his annually excellent defensive rating bears this out. So he will be able to offer Siakam more resistance at the basket.
Boston's Offense
The Celtics will look more in-rhythm now that they've ended their long layover.
As evident in its defensive rating, Indiana has an awful defense overall.
Not that the Pacers had much success stopping Jalen Brunson, when they did, they were often taking advantage of Brunson's smallness.
Guys like Aaron Nesmith, though, don't have that length advantage over the 6-8 Tatum.
Tatum and Jaylen Brown will continue to have their way against Indiana's porous defense.
Tatum and Brown are also surrounded by great shooters, who help the team be the top three-point shooting team in the NBA.
One of those efficient shooters is Derrick White who demonstrated his characteristic prowess as a facilitator by accumulating nine assists in Game 1.
Payton Pritchard is also very tough to guard and is someone who, after doing little in Game 1, is primed to get back to scoring in double digits.
The Situation
Indiana's Game 1 loss must feel like a gut punch after it had what would have been a crucial series-opening victory within its grasp.
The Pacers encountered a similar situation in their last series. They responded to their tough Game 1 loss in that series by failing to cover the spread in Game 2.
Even if Indiana responds maturely to its Game 1 disappointment, the main thing is that the Celtics will be locked-in and will play with a chip on their shoulders after hearing people say that the Pacers should have won, that the Pacers choked.
Boston, in both Rounds 1 and 2, lost Game 2, but those losses followed a blowout win in Game 1. The fact that Game 1 was close will benefit Boston in Game 2 from a psychological standpoint.
Takeaway
Even more important than Boston's mentality is the fact that it figured out valuable adjustments particularly in its pick-and-roll coverage.
The Celtics will also clean up their transition defense, now that they've experienced the Game 1 shock of facing a Pacers offense that differs from the Heat and Cavaliers offenses that they had faced ten times.
Their offense will thrive even more with better rhythm, with the long layover behind them, and more efficient shooting.
Most people think that Indiana will cover the spread in Game 2 because it was so close to doing so in Game 1. But the key point is actually that, numerous times throughout Game 1, Boston was very close to blowing the game open.
The factors discussed above will ensure that the Celtics win Game 2 by double digits.
Best Bets: Celtics -9 at -110 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Game 1 Takeaway
The main takeaway from Game 1 is that Dallas won despite underperforming tremendously from behind the arc.
In Game 1, the Mavericks made six threes and shot 24 percent from deep. Conversely, Minnesota made 18 threes and shot 36.7 percent from deep.
This disparity, that benefited Minnesota tremendously in Game 1, cannot be expected to continue.
The counterpoint is that Minnesota's top players did not perform nearly as well as Dallas'.
However, the Timberwolves were also able to get big games out of Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, and Naz Reid.
Those players are unreliable on offense, though, as their game-by-game point totals show.
The Timberwolves are going to need big games from Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, but I will argue that both players will disappoint.
Anthony Edwards' Outlook
Putting aside the fact that he has been off offensively since his hard fall in the last round, Dallas presents a tough matchup for him.
On defense, it's either him or Mike Conley who will try to guard Kyrie Irving.
Edwards is the best option, but Irving with his quickness and his overall motion is tiring to stick with.
Even if Edwards had unlimited endurance, Dallas' defensive philosophy will hurt him.
Edwards is known as a star because of his success inside the arc.
While he thrived from deep in Game 1 – and still failed to reach 20 points – he is a 35-percent career three-point shooter. He wants to attack the basket.
But Dallas is well-built to limit dribble penetration. The Mavericks wall off the paint.
This is why Edwards and company took so many threes in Game 1.
McDaniels, Edwards, and Reid thriving from deep still wasn't enough.
Karl-Anthony Towns' Outlook
Towns struggled because he shot poorly from behind the arc once again.
He also lacks the physical ability to punish smaller defenders in the post.
His ability to score around the basket will be minimized by a Dallas defense allowing the fewest field goals and the lowest conversion rate within five feet of the basket.
Dallas' Stars
Unlike Minnesota, Dallas is able to lean on its two top scorers.
Luka Doncic is difficult for any defender to try to contain, and Minnesota lacks a defender who can keep up with Irving – Nickeil Alexander-Walker is Edwards' backup and is known as a good defender, but he brings nothing on the offensive end.
The main problem is Minnesota's ball-screen defense.
Doncic and Irving easily navigate Minnesota's various ball-screen coverage attempts.
The Timberwolves are limited by Rudy Gobert's lack of versatility. Gobert is hapless on the perimeter, but drop coverage also makes it too easy for Luka and Kyrie to thrive in the mid-range.
Dallas also has too many counters for Minnesota's attempt, which it tried late in Game 1 to no avail, to blitz Luka.
The Mavericks are used to seeing Luka blitzed, and they are well-prepared with numerous guys who can score at the basket or shooters who can attack close-outs from defenders rotating to them.
Takeaway
With stronger three-point shooting and more characteristically efficient bench play, the Mavericks will win Game 2 even if their two star scorers were for some reason to decline.
Whereas the Timberwolves were struggling to find an answer to Dallas' pick-and-roll attack, Dallas with the versatile Dereck Lively succeeded with various looks in its ball-screen defense, which befuddled the Timberwolves' point guard.
I find both to be sustainable: Minnesota's defensive struggles are rooted in Gobert's longstanding versatility issues and in the incessant superior one-on-one play of Doncic and Irving; its offensive problems are rooted in Edwards' perpetual reliance on attacking the basket.
Best Bet: Mavericks +5 at -110 with BetOnline
i had to deliberate for a while as well
