Game 1 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Cleveland Has Too Much Shot-Making Ability
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET in Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Orlando's Composure
The Magic are a young team that is often struggling to compete in games that matter.
These struggles are specifically manifest in their road games down the final stretch of the regular season.
Most recently, in Orlando's last four road games, it gave up 124 points to Charlotte, 118 to Houston, 117 to Milwaukee, and 125 to Philadelphia.
Orlando lost all four of those games by at least nine points.
Cleveland's Shooting At Home
Location will be paramount to the outcome for this game not only because of Orlando's road struggles, but also because of Cleveland's shot-making.
At home, the Cavaliers shoot monumentally better than they do on the road.
Their home three-point conversion rate is 38.1 percent.
If this were an overall season statistic, they would rank sixth in three-point percentage.
Cleveland's Three-Point Shooting
Three-point shooting is especially important for tonight's game because Cleveland loves to shoot threes.
The Cavaliers attempt the eighth-most threes per game.
Look out, among others, for Donovan Mitchell, who is shooting 9-for-20 from deep in his last two games. Fellow starter Max Strus is making over 40 percent of his three-point attempts in April.
These guys will thrive against Orlando's vulnerable road defense.
Orlando's One-Dimensional Offense
The Magic will fail to keep pace with Cleveland because of their one-dimensionality on offense.
A team with one of the worst three-point conversion rates in the NBA, they do not shoot threes well.
They are one-dimensional in that they rely heavily on scoring inside. They attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Cleveland's Rim Protection
Cleveland will pack the paint with their length and stifle Orlando's primary hope for scoring points.
The two main actors here for Cleveland are Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Both guys work well together in tandem to protect the rim.
They are lengthy and impressively mobile for their size.
Mainly because of them, Cleveland does the sixth-best job of limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Finding The Right Lineup
Phoenix struggled in its start to the season because it took time to find the right lineup of guys.
The right lineup is its current starting lineup, consisting of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen, Kevin Durant, and Jusuf Nurkic.
Compared with the other lineups that amassed a data sample of 200+ minutes together, these five players owned the fourth-best offensive rating and ninth-best overall rating.
When Phoenix started giving this group of guys a lot of minutes together, then it became one of the very best teams, as measured by win percentage.
Phoenix's High-Level Offense
The Suns' offense is simply too good for Minnesota.
The Suns blew past 120 points in two of their regular season meetings with Minnesota, which is a crucial point because Minnesota, a rather offensively challenged team, has gone 8-20 when allowing 111 or more points.
Phoenix's Mid-Range Prowess
The Suns are especially hard for Minnesota's defense to stop because they love attacking the mid-range, which is just the space in which Minnesota's defense is vulnerable.
The Timberwolves focus on protecting the rim well and running teams off the three-point line.
Devin Booker and Kevin Durant love this matchup because they are well-known for their mid-range prowess.
Phoenix's stars are going to thrive, but so will the offense as a hole. Overall, the Suns make the most field goals per game in the 10-14-feet and 15-19-feet spaces between the basket and the three-point line.
Minnesota's Unreliable Offense
Minnesota will lack experienced scorers that it can rely on.
Karl-Anthony Towns has built a negative playoff reputation for himself because his efficiency and overall productivity plummet at this time of year.
Anthony Edwards will be the only off-the-dribble threat for the Timberwolves, and he won't get much help.
Phoenix's defense is greatly improved, ranking fourth in defensive rating since April, and won't be deterred by Minnesota's meager offensive quality.
Their defensive improvement explains why the Suns still won by ten in the one game when they failed to reach 100 points.
Best Bet: Suns ML at +100 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
Regular Season History
A look at the regular season history between these teams might suggest that the "over" is reasonable.
But one has to consider the role that Milwaukee superstar Giannis played in this games.
He owned Indiana's defense, scoring as many as 64 points.
Giannis is the type of player who is so good that general matchup considerations can become irrelevant.
Without Giannis – ESPN insiders indicate that he is likely going to miss this game due to a calf injury – we can emphasize those matchup considerations in our handicapping.
Milwaukee's Offense
The matchup consideration begins with the fact that Milwaukee's offense, especially without the threat inside posed by Giannis, relies heavily on three-point shooting.
Milwaukee attempts the fifth-most threes.
Indiana's Defense
The Pacers guard the three-point line aggressively.
You see this determination in the way they handle on- and off-ball screening actions, and you see it in general.
They allow the fewest three-point attempts overall.
Moreover, they allow the fewest wide-open three-point attempts and the second-fewest open ones.
These stats indicate that they excel at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting three-point shots.
By taking away what Milwaukee primarily wants to do on offense, they will make the Bucks uncomfortable. They'll force the Bucks to score inside where they won't be able to rely on Giannis.
My doubts about Milwaukee's offense in this matchup entail that I don't like the "over"
Indiana's Offensive Versatility
The Pacers primarily want to attack the basket.
Milwaukee's determination to prevent shots at the basket might make this game seem like a good matchup for its defense.
However, the Bucks will want to rely on their ball-screen defense in order to thwart Indiana's endeavor to attack the basket, yet they are impotent in this respect.
Indiana has demonstrated that its ball-screen duo of Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner is too tough for Milwaukee center Brook Lopez to handle.
Haliburton's success with ball-screens against the Bucks largely explains his ability to amass high point and assist totals against them.
Indiana will still be able to thrive inside primarily because of the Haliburton and Turner duo, although the addition of the very productive Pascal Siakam will also put a lot of pressure on Milwaukee's interior defense, which will miss Giannis and which has not seen Siakam in a Pacers uniform before.
Siakam is averaging 20.4 points per game for April.
Indiana's threats along the perimeter, especially Haliburton, will complement its inside scoring prowess against a Bucks defense that misses its now former stout on-ball defender Jrue Holiday.
Best Bet: Pacers ML at -126 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET in Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Orlando's Composure
The Magic are a young team that is often struggling to compete in games that matter.
These struggles are specifically manifest in their road games down the final stretch of the regular season.
Most recently, in Orlando's last four road games, it gave up 124 points to Charlotte, 118 to Houston, 117 to Milwaukee, and 125 to Philadelphia.
Orlando lost all four of those games by at least nine points.
Cleveland's Shooting At Home
Location will be paramount to the outcome for this game not only because of Orlando's road struggles, but also because of Cleveland's shot-making.
At home, the Cavaliers shoot monumentally better than they do on the road.
Their home three-point conversion rate is 38.1 percent.
If this were an overall season statistic, they would rank sixth in three-point percentage.
Cleveland's Three-Point Shooting
Three-point shooting is especially important for tonight's game because Cleveland loves to shoot threes.
The Cavaliers attempt the eighth-most threes per game.
Look out, among others, for Donovan Mitchell, who is shooting 9-for-20 from deep in his last two games. Fellow starter Max Strus is making over 40 percent of his three-point attempts in April.
These guys will thrive against Orlando's vulnerable road defense.
Orlando's One-Dimensional Offense
The Magic will fail to keep pace with Cleveland because of their one-dimensionality on offense.
A team with one of the worst three-point conversion rates in the NBA, they do not shoot threes well.
They are one-dimensional in that they rely heavily on scoring inside. They attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Cleveland's Rim Protection
Cleveland will pack the paint with their length and stifle Orlando's primary hope for scoring points.
The two main actors here for Cleveland are Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Both guys work well together in tandem to protect the rim.
They are lengthy and impressively mobile for their size.
Mainly because of them, Cleveland does the sixth-best job of limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Finding The Right Lineup
Phoenix struggled in its start to the season because it took time to find the right lineup of guys.
The right lineup is its current starting lineup, consisting of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen, Kevin Durant, and Jusuf Nurkic.
Compared with the other lineups that amassed a data sample of 200+ minutes together, these five players owned the fourth-best offensive rating and ninth-best overall rating.
When Phoenix started giving this group of guys a lot of minutes together, then it became one of the very best teams, as measured by win percentage.
Phoenix's High-Level Offense
The Suns' offense is simply too good for Minnesota.
The Suns blew past 120 points in two of their regular season meetings with Minnesota, which is a crucial point because Minnesota, a rather offensively challenged team, has gone 8-20 when allowing 111 or more points.
Phoenix's Mid-Range Prowess
The Suns are especially hard for Minnesota's defense to stop because they love attacking the mid-range, which is just the space in which Minnesota's defense is vulnerable.
The Timberwolves focus on protecting the rim well and running teams off the three-point line.
Devin Booker and Kevin Durant love this matchup because they are well-known for their mid-range prowess.
Phoenix's stars are going to thrive, but so will the offense as a hole. Overall, the Suns make the most field goals per game in the 10-14-feet and 15-19-feet spaces between the basket and the three-point line.
Minnesota's Unreliable Offense
Minnesota will lack experienced scorers that it can rely on.
Karl-Anthony Towns has built a negative playoff reputation for himself because his efficiency and overall productivity plummet at this time of year.
Anthony Edwards will be the only off-the-dribble threat for the Timberwolves, and he won't get much help.
Phoenix's defense is greatly improved, ranking fourth in defensive rating since April, and won't be deterred by Minnesota's meager offensive quality.
Their defensive improvement explains why the Suns still won by ten in the one game when they failed to reach 100 points.
Best Bet: Suns ML at +100 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
Regular Season History
A look at the regular season history between these teams might suggest that the "over" is reasonable.
But one has to consider the role that Milwaukee superstar Giannis played in this games.
He owned Indiana's defense, scoring as many as 64 points.
Giannis is the type of player who is so good that general matchup considerations can become irrelevant.
Without Giannis – ESPN insiders indicate that he is likely going to miss this game due to a calf injury – we can emphasize those matchup considerations in our handicapping.
Milwaukee's Offense
The matchup consideration begins with the fact that Milwaukee's offense, especially without the threat inside posed by Giannis, relies heavily on three-point shooting.
Milwaukee attempts the fifth-most threes.
Indiana's Defense
The Pacers guard the three-point line aggressively.
You see this determination in the way they handle on- and off-ball screening actions, and you see it in general.
They allow the fewest three-point attempts overall.
Moreover, they allow the fewest wide-open three-point attempts and the second-fewest open ones.
These stats indicate that they excel at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting three-point shots.
By taking away what Milwaukee primarily wants to do on offense, they will make the Bucks uncomfortable. They'll force the Bucks to score inside where they won't be able to rely on Giannis.
My doubts about Milwaukee's offense in this matchup entail that I don't like the "over"
Indiana's Offensive Versatility
The Pacers primarily want to attack the basket.
Milwaukee's determination to prevent shots at the basket might make this game seem like a good matchup for its defense.
However, the Bucks will want to rely on their ball-screen defense in order to thwart Indiana's endeavor to attack the basket, yet they are impotent in this respect.
Indiana has demonstrated that its ball-screen duo of Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner is too tough for Milwaukee center Brook Lopez to handle.
Haliburton's success with ball-screens against the Bucks largely explains his ability to amass high point and assist totals against them.
Indiana will still be able to thrive inside primarily because of the Haliburton and Turner duo, although the addition of the very productive Pascal Siakam will also put a lot of pressure on Milwaukee's interior defense, which will miss Giannis and which has not seen Siakam in a Pacers uniform before.
Siakam is averaging 20.4 points per game for April.
Indiana's threats along the perimeter, especially Haliburton, will complement its inside scoring prowess against a Bucks defense that misses its now former stout on-ball defender Jrue Holiday.
Best Bet: Pacers ML at -126 with BetOnline
