Game 1 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets
Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at TD Garden
One Bad Reason to Like Boston
Celtics backers give bad arguments. Let's address them so that you don't get misled.
One bad reason to support Boston is that the Celtics have dominated Game 1s in this postseason.
First of all, a two-game data sample is meaningless. The Celtics crushed Miami and Cleveland in Game 1.
But they also owned both teams almost throughout the entirety of each series.
So, it is not the case that the Celtics are especially reliable in Game 1. It is rather the case that the Celtics have faced competition that is well below them and that the Celtics have demonstrated their superiority to this competition in Game 1.
I will argue that Indiana is going to be a much tougher opponent for Boston than Cleveland and Miami were. My point is that the Pacers will show this toughness throughout the series.
A Second Bad Reason To Like Boston
Celtics backers are misguided when they argue that Boston matches up well against Indiana.
The argument is this: Celtics backers claim that the Boston's outlook is strong because it allows the fewest points per game in transition, which is meaningful because Indiana's offense relies heavily on scoring in transition.
This argument is poor because, again, of the Celtics' competition thus far.
They faced two teams, Miami and Cleveland, that are relatively averse to scoring in transition.
Both the Heat and the Cavaliers ranked in the bottom half in transition play frequency in the regular season.
Neither of those teams approached Indiana's scoring prowess in transition.
Indiana In Transition
I dislike Boston's matchup outlook tonight because the Celtics, when the Heat and Cavaliers – notwithstanding each team's significant injury problems – initiated transition offense, proved very vulnerable.
Despite having faced injury-ridden offenses that are relatively averse to scoring in transition, Boston is allowing the fourth-most PPP (points per possession) against transition offense.
On the other hand, the Pacers are the best team at scoring in transition.
They will run even after the opponent makes a basket. They'll use long passes, for example, to advance quickly.
When they run, they are highly efficient.
By significant margins, they rank number one in both PPP and points per game in transition.
Indiana's Half-Court Offense
Against weaker Miami and Cleveland offenses, Boston could rely on hard closeouts to run opposing players off the three-point line.
But Indiana is more difficult to defend because, in addition to possessing excellent shooters, the Pacers are also efficient inside.
They rank eighth overall in three-point percentage and, of the remaining postseason teams, they make the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
The Pacers will have an advantage in the paint with the likes of Pascal Siakam facing a Boston defense that misses its top rim protector in starting center Kristaps Porzingis.
When Siakam joined the Pacers, he was their second-leading scorer in a five-point loss in Boston where the Pacers were unusually off from behind the arc.
As for the ball-screen game, Indiana saw and adjusted, with resounding success, to Milwaukee's switch-heavy scheme and therefore look prepared for Boston's proclivity to switch on ball screens.
Indiana's Defense
The Pacers match up well against Boston because they want to take away the three-ball.
Throughout the season, they've been the best team at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
They continue to thrive in the postseason at limiting opposing open and wide-open three-point attempts.
Indiana's focus on perimeter defense is important because Boston has relied heavily on making threes.
Of the postseason teams, the Celtics attempt the third-fewest shots within five feet of the basket, the third-fewest from the five-to-nine-foot range, and the list continues.
Boston attempts the most threes per game.
Indiana's defense is designed to take away the means of scoring that Boston is most comfortable relying on.
Takeaway
The Pacers will be maximally comfortable scoring the ball whether in transition, against Boston's switching, or against Boston's hard closeouts.
Conversely, the Celtics will be uncomfortable on offense given Indiana's focus on locking down the perimeter.
Best Bet: Pacers +10 at -108 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Wednesday, May 22, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Game 1 Trend
Under Jason Kidd, Dallas has perpetual problems in Game 1.
Two years ago, the Mavs lost Game 1 at home to Utah by six; they lost at Phoenix by seven, and at Golden State by 25.
This year, the Mavs lost Game 1 at the Clippers by 12 points and at OKC by 22 points.
Minnesota's Head Coach
Even later in a series, Minnesota's head coach is smart enough to make decisive in-game adjustments.
In Game 7 against Denver, the Timberwolves allowed 37 second-half points because of defensive adjustments that Chris Finch made.
I see the Timberwolves as having a tremendous coaching advantage against Dallas, who is led by a guy in Jason Kidd who consistently needs time to figure opponents out, whereas Finch reliably has his guys well-prepared to start out a series and excels at making in-game adjustments.
Minnesota's Defense
Minnesota's top-caliber defense has proven tough for teams to figure out, with both Phoenix and Denver requiring multiple games to find ways to score.
The Timberwolves are tough to score on because they simply have so many solid individual defenders.
Center Rudy Gobert is a four-time Defensive Player of the Year.
He struggled somewhat in his last series because Nikola Jokic is an MVP-caliber player who has a ton of finesse moves that Gobert will struggle against.
Gobert gets a much softer test from Dallas' bigs. The Mavs miss a versatile big, like the still injured Maxi Kleber, who can prevent Gobert from camping in the paint.
On the perimeter, Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have faced well-reputed scoring guards from the Phoenix series, in which they contained Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, onwards.
Dallas' perimeter-oriented, guard-centered offense will thus face very tough individual tests.
Moreover, Minnesota is characteristically long.
The Timberwolves rank 24 spots ahead of Dallas' last opponent, Oklahoma City, in defensive rebounding.
They are built to do a radically better job than the Thunder at limiting Dallas' second-chance scoring opportunities.
Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns
Whereas Minnesota has the defensive personnel to limit Dallas' scoring, the Mavs lack the defenders to limit Minnesota's top scorer.
MVP-caliber star Anthony Edwards is going to be too tough to stop.
He also has a deep supporting cast, with teammates and a bench that will exploit a Dallas defense that has lost defensive depth – quality defenders in Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith – in recent years.
One key player to support Edwards' scoring will be Karl-Anthony Towns, who has an excellent history when guarded by his counterpart PJ Washington going back to when Washington played for the Hornets.
The Verdict
Minnesota will be better prepared and, with its stronger coaching, superstar play, and supporting cast, will win by double digits.
Best Bet: Timberwolves -4 at -115 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at TD Garden
One Bad Reason to Like Boston
Celtics backers give bad arguments. Let's address them so that you don't get misled.
One bad reason to support Boston is that the Celtics have dominated Game 1s in this postseason.
First of all, a two-game data sample is meaningless. The Celtics crushed Miami and Cleveland in Game 1.
But they also owned both teams almost throughout the entirety of each series.
So, it is not the case that the Celtics are especially reliable in Game 1. It is rather the case that the Celtics have faced competition that is well below them and that the Celtics have demonstrated their superiority to this competition in Game 1.
I will argue that Indiana is going to be a much tougher opponent for Boston than Cleveland and Miami were. My point is that the Pacers will show this toughness throughout the series.
A Second Bad Reason To Like Boston
Celtics backers are misguided when they argue that Boston matches up well against Indiana.
The argument is this: Celtics backers claim that the Boston's outlook is strong because it allows the fewest points per game in transition, which is meaningful because Indiana's offense relies heavily on scoring in transition.
This argument is poor because, again, of the Celtics' competition thus far.
They faced two teams, Miami and Cleveland, that are relatively averse to scoring in transition.
Both the Heat and the Cavaliers ranked in the bottom half in transition play frequency in the regular season.
Neither of those teams approached Indiana's scoring prowess in transition.
Indiana In Transition
I dislike Boston's matchup outlook tonight because the Celtics, when the Heat and Cavaliers – notwithstanding each team's significant injury problems – initiated transition offense, proved very vulnerable.
Despite having faced injury-ridden offenses that are relatively averse to scoring in transition, Boston is allowing the fourth-most PPP (points per possession) against transition offense.
On the other hand, the Pacers are the best team at scoring in transition.
They will run even after the opponent makes a basket. They'll use long passes, for example, to advance quickly.
When they run, they are highly efficient.
By significant margins, they rank number one in both PPP and points per game in transition.
Indiana's Half-Court Offense
Against weaker Miami and Cleveland offenses, Boston could rely on hard closeouts to run opposing players off the three-point line.
But Indiana is more difficult to defend because, in addition to possessing excellent shooters, the Pacers are also efficient inside.
They rank eighth overall in three-point percentage and, of the remaining postseason teams, they make the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
The Pacers will have an advantage in the paint with the likes of Pascal Siakam facing a Boston defense that misses its top rim protector in starting center Kristaps Porzingis.
When Siakam joined the Pacers, he was their second-leading scorer in a five-point loss in Boston where the Pacers were unusually off from behind the arc.
As for the ball-screen game, Indiana saw and adjusted, with resounding success, to Milwaukee's switch-heavy scheme and therefore look prepared for Boston's proclivity to switch on ball screens.
Indiana's Defense
The Pacers match up well against Boston because they want to take away the three-ball.
Throughout the season, they've been the best team at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
They continue to thrive in the postseason at limiting opposing open and wide-open three-point attempts.
Indiana's focus on perimeter defense is important because Boston has relied heavily on making threes.
Of the postseason teams, the Celtics attempt the third-fewest shots within five feet of the basket, the third-fewest from the five-to-nine-foot range, and the list continues.
Boston attempts the most threes per game.
Indiana's defense is designed to take away the means of scoring that Boston is most comfortable relying on.
Takeaway
The Pacers will be maximally comfortable scoring the ball whether in transition, against Boston's switching, or against Boston's hard closeouts.
Conversely, the Celtics will be uncomfortable on offense given Indiana's focus on locking down the perimeter.
Best Bet: Pacers +10 at -108 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Wednesday, May 22, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Game 1 Trend
Under Jason Kidd, Dallas has perpetual problems in Game 1.
Two years ago, the Mavs lost Game 1 at home to Utah by six; they lost at Phoenix by seven, and at Golden State by 25.
This year, the Mavs lost Game 1 at the Clippers by 12 points and at OKC by 22 points.
Minnesota's Head Coach
Even later in a series, Minnesota's head coach is smart enough to make decisive in-game adjustments.
In Game 7 against Denver, the Timberwolves allowed 37 second-half points because of defensive adjustments that Chris Finch made.
I see the Timberwolves as having a tremendous coaching advantage against Dallas, who is led by a guy in Jason Kidd who consistently needs time to figure opponents out, whereas Finch reliably has his guys well-prepared to start out a series and excels at making in-game adjustments.
Minnesota's Defense
Minnesota's top-caliber defense has proven tough for teams to figure out, with both Phoenix and Denver requiring multiple games to find ways to score.
The Timberwolves are tough to score on because they simply have so many solid individual defenders.
Center Rudy Gobert is a four-time Defensive Player of the Year.
He struggled somewhat in his last series because Nikola Jokic is an MVP-caliber player who has a ton of finesse moves that Gobert will struggle against.
Gobert gets a much softer test from Dallas' bigs. The Mavs miss a versatile big, like the still injured Maxi Kleber, who can prevent Gobert from camping in the paint.
On the perimeter, Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have faced well-reputed scoring guards from the Phoenix series, in which they contained Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, onwards.
Dallas' perimeter-oriented, guard-centered offense will thus face very tough individual tests.
Moreover, Minnesota is characteristically long.
The Timberwolves rank 24 spots ahead of Dallas' last opponent, Oklahoma City, in defensive rebounding.
They are built to do a radically better job than the Thunder at limiting Dallas' second-chance scoring opportunities.
Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns
Whereas Minnesota has the defensive personnel to limit Dallas' scoring, the Mavs lack the defenders to limit Minnesota's top scorer.
MVP-caliber star Anthony Edwards is going to be too tough to stop.
He also has a deep supporting cast, with teammates and a bench that will exploit a Dallas defense that has lost defensive depth – quality defenders in Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith – in recent years.
One key player to support Edwards' scoring will be Karl-Anthony Towns, who has an excellent history when guarded by his counterpart PJ Washington going back to when Washington played for the Hornets.
The Verdict
Minnesota will be better prepared and, with its stronger coaching, superstar play, and supporting cast, will win by double digits.
Best Bet: Timberwolves -4 at -115 with BetOnline
