G-Man's Tuesday College Play. Fla Atl/ Troy 10-07-08

[G-Man]

We have two teams that are going to be fighting for the division. This one though has the wrong team favored. Troy has been a "public team" when it comes to the Sun Belt teams.

Fla ATL beat Troy LY at Troy as a 16 point dog. There were 3 Troy turnovers that cost them the game in a 38-32 loss.

FL ATL is bringing back 18 starters from that Bowl team they had last year. Troy who was 8-3 LY is returning 14 starters.

FL ATL has 1 win and its at home. Their 4 losses ( all on the road) were at the hands of Texas, 52-10 - Michigan St. who FLA held to 17 points in a 17-0 loss - and to Minnesota by a 37-3 score. The 37-3 score was misleading as FLA had four(4) interceptions. The MID Tenn loss -13-14 was on turnovers. FLA is also 25-1 when scoring 30 points or more and that should be accomplished at home tonight.

Troy played 3 road games as well, at Middle Tenn St winning 31-17, Ohio State, losing28-10 and at Oklahoma State, in a 55-24 loss.

In the two games Troy played in Ohio St. and Okla St, those two teams played very conservatively and the scores would have been much worse than they appear. Therefore givng the impression that Troy stayed close in those games. Not true at all.

Tonight we have an underdog "Bowler" that is returning 18 solid players at home against a Troy team that is favored? FLA ATL should win this one SU and the cover is a given IMO.


Fla Atlantic +4. (8 units)


GLTA

 

[Inspekdah]

Same exact point can be made that Minny, and Mich St. could have wiped the floor with FAU. I've never seen more conservative play calling than I did with Mich St. Troy was actually in the game vs. OSU, FAU was NEVER in the game vs. Mich St.

 

[G-Man]

Same exact point can be made that Minny, and Mich St. could have wiped the floor with FAU. I've never seen more conservative play calling than I did with Mich St. Troy was actually in the game vs. OSU, FAU was NEVER in the game vs. Mich St.

Holding Mich St to 17 in their own yard is staying in the game...

As far as Ohio St. I watched that game and OSU didnt make any long passing attempts at all. Ran the ball with Pryor and only ran C. Wells 2 times in the game. It was obvious that Pryor was in training on the field the whole game, just getting some experience. The Buckeyes only had 17 first downs... If they played today the Buckeyes would probably win 50-0. When they did score it was all done passing. Pryor had 4 td passes.

Tonight FL ATl will do that in the air and more with their offense. Troy is going to find it hard to catch up with the defense that FLA has as well.

:shake:

 

[Mags]

Like it, actually leaning to the UNDER as well. I know it's not the popular play but it is what it is. BOL bro!

 

[ontime23]

I feel this may be the right way, but did you see them last week. they were absolutely horrible.

 

[ducks97]

I don't understand how 4 interceptions can be a misleading final score. Turnovers are part of the game and shouldn't be discounted in capping games.

 

[Big Herm]

Turnovers shouldn't be discounted, but you certainly have to take into account whether it is anomaly or trend, while taking into account sample size. A team that turns the ball over 3 times a week for 8 weeks is a trend. 4 interceptions can be misleading in that you would throw the ball more when you are already down and force plays that you normally wouldn't make.

 

[ducks97]

cool. thanks.

 

[TroyStacks]

liek the pick

 

[joebram]

Holding Mich St to 17 in their own yard is staying in the game...

Wasn't that in a monsoon

 

[wizardofodd]

BOL G-Man, like the play, on it my self at +4.5

 

[G-Man]

I don't understand how 4 interceptions can be a misleading final score. Turnovers are part of the game and shouldn't be discounted in capping games.

All turnovers are crucial in capping any game. Some are ignored if the team wins and teams that lose, usually would have covered or won SU if they didnt happen.

Tons of gamblers bet Buffalo at Arizona because they were beaten easily by the Jets. I capped them to win that game SU. They had 7 turnovers in the loss. Sunday -AZ was easy money because of it. Last week they got my action again and won it all back for me.

The same factor happened with Fla St. when they were beat by Wake forest 12-3. They had 7 turnovers as well. They rewarded me also - and beat both Colorado and Mia Fla. after that loss, because the public doesnt take turnovers into account properly.

 

[SportsNut]

Same exact point can be made that Minny, and Mich St. could have wiped the floor with FAU. I've never seen more conservative play calling than I did with Mich St. Troy was actually in the game vs. OSU, FAU was NEVER in the game vs. Mich St.

Not sure what game you were watching but how can you say Troy was never in the game @ Mich State . Conservative ? Did you forgot the weather that day ? Muddy field , rain and strong winds . You have Javon Ringer on one team which team did you think would win when its near impossible to throw the ball? The Minnesota game was very misleading and had Minny . Check it Weber had just 240yds and a TD . The texas game vs misleading as FAU down 28-10 at half probably gave away at least another 6 maybe 10 or 14 points on turnovers then once Texas scored 1 st possession 2nd H FAU curled up and died after all the smack they spoke beforehand....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

I don't understand how 4 interceptions can be a misleading final score. Turnovers are part of the game and shouldn't be discounted in capping games.

Look at like this then . He had 4 picks that is reality . Now can we say those picks were all his fault ? No tipped passes or bad routes that could be a once in a blue moon type deal? Can we say that he makes those some INTs if he is playing at home ? Does the defense make those plays if in they are on the road ?

So while they cant be overlooked everything that occurs should be rationalized . In baseball alone I almost never weigh what a SP does on the road when he is home and vice versa . Performance varies for a reason and we have to try and understand why it does.

How many teams can win when there QB tosses 4 picks ? Its part of the game but has to be distinguished . So if you can say that the core reason why they lost was the turnovers then you ask well does that type stuff happen vs a Troy defense or when FAU is it at home . Especially when you see that turnovers take points off the board or give points to the opponent or even swing momentum that leads to points on teh ensuing drive ....

I am big believer in understanding why things happen. Now of course if Texas is playing Utah State and lead 56-0 at half we know simply the talent disparity is that wide and that clear but overall picture would mean anything when grading either team ?

How thinsg occur is huge . Everything happens IMO due to situations ...change teh situation or context and the result to might change:shake: