G-Man
Pretty much a regular
One of the best cards and situations all season, are on the list today of winners and losers.
The over-priced pretenders and under-valued contenders, are in clearer view today. Who shows up to play is another story.
This is November and games played from 8 through 12 are the weeks when truly good teams are going somewhere. For capping factors, this is where the schedule tells it all.
Those who are over-priced will start their slide and winning becomes much more difficult. Injuries play a big, big part of a teams success and if a team isnt playing real well, then they wont be covering the spread during these weeks.
Denver +7 (8 units) over Atlanta. Many will be on the Falcons today as they are a winning and playing surprisingly well with Ryan as a rookie.
Today though, the Falcons will be tested, as they are 2-0 out of the conference against the bums of the AFC. Atl whipped Oakland 24-0 and KC 38-14. Dont expect the Falcons to have the same luck facing a Denver team that can pass all day. The 7 is too large today and winning SU isnt even going to be easy for the Falcons today. If Denver jumps out front, they could even win this one.
Raiders/Dolphins. No Play - Lean Oak +10.5 if Russell (?) plays.
Ny Giants -7 (15 units) over Baltimore. Ravens have no shot at winning this game. The pass rush is good but they wont be able to contain Manning. The Ravens passing game is good on paper but not against good teams. They struggle badly and if they cant run the ball they wont ever get to the red zone. Since the G-Men only allow less than 90 yds rushing per game, I cant see Baltimore hanging around long. G-Men by 24.
Colts -8 ( 15 units) over Houston. Home in the Dome for Manning is good. Houston has been crushed on the road, allowing an AVERAGE of 32 points per game on defense. Lay the number here. It will be covered by halftime.
Jackasses +1 ( 15 units) over Tennessee. Looks like an easy play for Tennessee backers. Not so fast my friends(Corso). Titans played all their road games against much weaker opponents, even Baltimore, who started a rookie qb, where the Titans won by 3. All that matters today, is two words - Fred Taylor.
Chicago +3.5 (10 units) over Green Bay. Kyle Orton is due back today. The Bears defense can handle anything that Rodgers throws at them today. Grossman was largely ineffective last week as the Bears only had 15 first downs. I expect Orton to be far more effective against a Packer squad that isnt playing as well as they could be with Favre, IMO. Expect Hester and Orton to have a good day in GB .
Cincy/Philly No Play.
KC/NO No Play.
Carolina -14 (10 Units) over Detroit. Culpepper wont matter today against one of the best home defenses in the NFC. Lions have covered in 3 of their last 5, but not today.
Tampa Bay -4 (15 units) over Minnesota. Vikings are a completely different team on the road. Thats a sign of inconsistency. They did win lw in GB but thats because GB is not as good as many think. Allowing 32 points per game on the road isnt something that you fix by facing the best opponent in the division. Vikes have won 4 of 5 SU, but this is no place for a win. Buc's by 10 or more.
San Fran -6.5 ( 5 units) over St.Lousy. Who would have ever thought that SF could be favored by 6 over anyone? Rams are done for the season. and probably wont win another game. If SF can run the ball well enough, they will cover this number.
Seattle +3 (10 units) over Arizona. Hasselback is starting today for the Seahawks at home. Zona is coming off a tough win on Monday night with SF. If the Niners didnt have the 3 turnovers, they may have beat Zona. Warner is having a fantastic season but they lack a good running game and cant play defense on the road.
Seattle has no friends when it comes to wins and losses, but the line is small for a reason on this game. Mainly because, Arizona allows a ton of points defensivly on the road. I see the Hawks winning SU here and the Cards have to throw in their hand today. 70% are on the wrong side of this one today.
San Diego +5 (10 units) over Pittsburgh. Steelers have lost two(2) straight at home. (Giants & Colts) Is the home field magic gone? Apparently the odssmakers think so and thats why this number is small against a SD team that is losing more games than winning (4-5). Wouldn't it look normal to see the Steelers favord by 8 or more here? The Steelers have one of the smallest scoring advantages in the NFL at home this year, as they are only outscoring opponents by 4 points per game? More importantly, they are allowing 20 points per game on defense. Thats not an indicator of a great team any longer. If you dont think that the small scoring advantage isn't serious, then just subtract the 38 points they put up on Houston in week one - and its really big! Then they are minus points per game at home!!! One more glaring fact, for those who cap games and might think that the Steelers will run the ball. They havent run the ball for 100 yards in any of their last three games! Upset here? Maybe - but I dont think they cover regardless.
Dallas/Washington. > Later.
GLTA
The over-priced pretenders and under-valued contenders, are in clearer view today. Who shows up to play is another story.
This is November and games played from 8 through 12 are the weeks when truly good teams are going somewhere. For capping factors, this is where the schedule tells it all.
Those who are over-priced will start their slide and winning becomes much more difficult. Injuries play a big, big part of a teams success and if a team isnt playing real well, then they wont be covering the spread during these weeks.
Denver +7 (8 units) over Atlanta. Many will be on the Falcons today as they are a winning and playing surprisingly well with Ryan as a rookie.
Today though, the Falcons will be tested, as they are 2-0 out of the conference against the bums of the AFC. Atl whipped Oakland 24-0 and KC 38-14. Dont expect the Falcons to have the same luck facing a Denver team that can pass all day. The 7 is too large today and winning SU isnt even going to be easy for the Falcons today. If Denver jumps out front, they could even win this one.
Raiders/Dolphins. No Play - Lean Oak +10.5 if Russell (?) plays.
Ny Giants -7 (15 units) over Baltimore. Ravens have no shot at winning this game. The pass rush is good but they wont be able to contain Manning. The Ravens passing game is good on paper but not against good teams. They struggle badly and if they cant run the ball they wont ever get to the red zone. Since the G-Men only allow less than 90 yds rushing per game, I cant see Baltimore hanging around long. G-Men by 24.
Colts -8 ( 15 units) over Houston. Home in the Dome for Manning is good. Houston has been crushed on the road, allowing an AVERAGE of 32 points per game on defense. Lay the number here. It will be covered by halftime.
Jackasses +1 ( 15 units) over Tennessee. Looks like an easy play for Tennessee backers. Not so fast my friends(Corso). Titans played all their road games against much weaker opponents, even Baltimore, who started a rookie qb, where the Titans won by 3. All that matters today, is two words - Fred Taylor.
Chicago +3.5 (10 units) over Green Bay. Kyle Orton is due back today. The Bears defense can handle anything that Rodgers throws at them today. Grossman was largely ineffective last week as the Bears only had 15 first downs. I expect Orton to be far more effective against a Packer squad that isnt playing as well as they could be with Favre, IMO. Expect Hester and Orton to have a good day in GB .
Cincy/Philly No Play.
KC/NO No Play.
Carolina -14 (10 Units) over Detroit. Culpepper wont matter today against one of the best home defenses in the NFC. Lions have covered in 3 of their last 5, but not today.
Tampa Bay -4 (15 units) over Minnesota. Vikings are a completely different team on the road. Thats a sign of inconsistency. They did win lw in GB but thats because GB is not as good as many think. Allowing 32 points per game on the road isnt something that you fix by facing the best opponent in the division. Vikes have won 4 of 5 SU, but this is no place for a win. Buc's by 10 or more.
San Fran -6.5 ( 5 units) over St.Lousy. Who would have ever thought that SF could be favored by 6 over anyone? Rams are done for the season. and probably wont win another game. If SF can run the ball well enough, they will cover this number.
Seattle +3 (10 units) over Arizona. Hasselback is starting today for the Seahawks at home. Zona is coming off a tough win on Monday night with SF. If the Niners didnt have the 3 turnovers, they may have beat Zona. Warner is having a fantastic season but they lack a good running game and cant play defense on the road.
Seattle has no friends when it comes to wins and losses, but the line is small for a reason on this game. Mainly because, Arizona allows a ton of points defensivly on the road. I see the Hawks winning SU here and the Cards have to throw in their hand today. 70% are on the wrong side of this one today.
San Diego +5 (10 units) over Pittsburgh. Steelers have lost two(2) straight at home. (Giants & Colts) Is the home field magic gone? Apparently the odssmakers think so and thats why this number is small against a SD team that is losing more games than winning (4-5). Wouldn't it look normal to see the Steelers favord by 8 or more here? The Steelers have one of the smallest scoring advantages in the NFL at home this year, as they are only outscoring opponents by 4 points per game? More importantly, they are allowing 20 points per game on defense. Thats not an indicator of a great team any longer. If you dont think that the small scoring advantage isn't serious, then just subtract the 38 points they put up on Houston in week one - and its really big! Then they are minus points per game at home!!! One more glaring fact, for those who cap games and might think that the Steelers will run the ball. They havent run the ball for 100 yards in any of their last three games! Upset here? Maybe - but I dont think they cover regardless.
Dallas/Washington. > Later.
GLTA
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