G-Man's Monday Nighter Colts/Titans 10-27-08

[G-Man]

Most of the subject on this game is, why are the Colts 4 point dogs? (In respect to Sammy Meatballs thread)

Manning has always been easy money and there is a lot of the public finding it hard to understand the line at 4?

First - the Colts have no running game. Second, Payton isnt playing well and the Colts defense is vastly over rated in comparison to what we've seen from Dungy in the past.

Also, back when Indy was 12-4 in the '06 season they were only 3-3 against the division! If you stop for a moment and think about this, they lost 3 of their 4 losses to the teams in their division!

If you go to last year, ('07) they were 13-3 and were 5-1 in the division. The Titans were with V. Young and willing to throw away an entire season to have him develop in the NFL. BUT in spite of the risk in Young, they did manage to win 10 games and get a playoff shot, but Young was never a very effective passer and the Titans struggled to win games in spite of a decent defense which was second best in the division. They only outscored their opponents by 4 points! 301-297!!! How they finsished at 10-6, is amazing!

Now the tables are turning as they say, and there is a changing of the guard now. When this happens, the public is always slow to believe it. Therefore the subject becomes, why are the Colts a dog?

Last year Indy out scored Tennessee by 150 points on offense. Last year as like several other seasons, the Colts were scoring at will. Except for one fact. In the last 3 games these two played, the Colts never scored over 22 points in any game! 22,17 and 10. The Titans scored 20,20 and 16 and won 2 of 3!

Now, the Colts are no where near as effective on offense and that defense is stopping nearly no one, as they have allowed 29 to Da 'bears, 23 to J'Ville in Indy, 27 at houston, and 34 to the Packers!

In the meantime the Titans are outscoring all opponets by a whopping Super Bowl caliber margin of 25-11 !!!!! That aint no accident guys.

This line is way too small, and Vegas has the room in the number to keep as much money on Indy as they want. If they drop it to 3.5, the public thinks that Indy is gettting bet hard. If they raise it to 4.5 the public will find it hard not to take them. If the line was PK the public would still bet Indy.

No matter what the number - there is a good percentage of money thats going to be on Manning period. When it gets to game time, its going to be hard for the public to bet against the Colts regardless of what perception there is on the line.

This game is one that Collins will thrive on, because the Colts are one dimensional this season/ What dimension you may ask? The most important one of course. Theyve been outscored 21-22 on the season and played a bunch of teams that don't do a whole lot.

Oh, and one more small detail...dont get all-happy that the Colts beat the Ravens 31-3. Baltimore had 5 turnovers in that game and in the NFL no one wins games with 5 turnovers. The Colts were up 24-0 at the half.

Other than that game, the Colts are horrible in first half scoring. Try this out for size. In the other games they had scores at the half of - 6, 0, 14, 10, 7 and trailed in 4 of those 5!

Real line should be at least 7 here. Let's see how it plays out.


Titans - 4. (15 units)


GLTA :shake:




.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Couldn't agree more. GL Gman. This has the makings of a massacre if the Titans jump out front early.

 

[G-Man]

Couldn't agree more. GL Gman. This has the makings of a massacre if the Titans jump out front early.

:cheers:

 

[wizardofodd]

i was leaning on colts, but i've had my ass handed to me this week, but i'm going to jump on the titans bandwagon also and get on the titans tonight.

 

[Pirate88]

opcorn:good health G-Man, you may be right, I am subpar this week

 

[scdoggy]

I like the Titans here too. But let me play devil's advocate for a moment.

What if the Colts score first? However you like it (kick ret TD, Wayne gets loose for a deep pass, corner falls down, etc). If Indy goes up 7-0, or worse 10-0, is there any way this Titans team can come from behind to cover a -4 spread? The only game in which the Titans have been down 7 points all season is against Balt, and yes they did come from behind to win by three.

What worries me most about this game is Indy does have the ability to make a big play early and have the Titans clawing from behind. It is crucial for Tenn to score first in order to cover this number. If Indy wins the toss and scores first, I would be very surprised if they don't come away with the cash tonight.

Also, the Colts have scored on their first drive in each of their past four games. Something to think about........

 

[orange&white]

I'll just say this for anyone that likes the Colts. Do you really want to bet on a team with two rookie guards that have been struggling against probably the best D-Line in the league? Haynesworth and Tony Brown will get an unbelivable psuh tonight and the Colts will have to throw a ton hindering Payton's great play-action pass. GL GMAN. Think your on the right side here. Titans 24, Colts 16

 

[scdoggy]

This is a tough one for me. I keep overanalyzing the side, and the total seems right on. If anything, it looks like they're begging for under money, but I don't think Indy can stop the Titans rush, and Manning may be able to throw quick slants on this defense..... Still looking.

 

[C-MAN]

Also remember that Indy had to pull off 2 amazing comebacks against Minny and Hou to get to 3-3. I will probably be splitting my units evenly between the 1H and full game lines, but I agree Tenn should dominate this one. I have seen too many people using "this is a must win situation", "this line is funny" and "Manning is money on MNF" as logic for supporting the Colts. None of these are good reasons to support the Colts. There are a lot of winnable games left on the Colts schedule, but this isn't one of them.

 

[scdoggy]

Curious as to whether you guys think Tenn would be able to cover if they don't score first tonight. If you don't I would at lease make sure and not throw too much cash at this game. Given the fact that Indy's gotten pts on first drives four straight weeks (yes one was against the Ravens), I would tread cautiously......

the one thing the Colts have going for them over Tenn is the ability to come from behind. Like many of you guys, I like the Titans but am scared off a bit by my lack of faith in them being able to come back if they get down early.....

 

[G-Man]

I like the Titans here too. But let me play devil's advocate for a moment.

What if the Colts score first? However you like it (kick ret TD, Wayne gets loose for a deep pass, corner falls down, etc). If Indy goes up 7-0, or worse 10-0, is there any way this Titans team can come from behind to cover a -4 spread? The only game in which the Titans have been down 7 points all season is against Balt, and yes they did come from behind to win by three.

What worries me most about this game is Indy does have the ability to make a big play early and have the Titans clawing from behind. It is crucial for Tenn to score first in order to cover this number. If Indy wins the toss and scores first, I would be very surprised if they don't come away with the cash tonight.

Also, the Colts have scored on their first drive in each of their past four games. Something to think about........

Other than that quote above ^ (in bold), the Colts are horrible in first half scoring. Try this out for size. In the other games they had scores at the half of - 6, 0, 14, 10, 7 and trailed in 4 of those 5!

Leading at the half is unlikely and this Titan team is good for 1st and 2nd half betting.

 

[singlewing]

:cheers:

Good luck and good health G-Man

 

[scdoggy]

True G man, but they have scored on their first drive in four straight weeks. And Tenn has yet to play a team that can really throw the football.

Leaning OVER for sure and Titans at the moment, but the side has me going back and forth - so I may pass...

 

[G-Man]

True G man, but they have scored on their first drive in four straight weeks. And Tenn has yet to play a team that can really throw the football.

Leaning OVER for sure and Titans at the moment, but the side has me going back and forth - so I may pass...

They played this Colts team "that can really throw the football" back when the Colts were very healthy and scoring like a machine. They still beat INDY 2 of 3 and held that wicked pass-throwing offense to 20, 17 and 10 points.

Tonight the Colts are in real trouble. Big advantage for the T T tonight.:shake:

P.S. The UNDER looks better to me?

 

[ontime23]

They played this Colts team "that can really throw the football" back when the Colts were very healthy and scoring like a machine. They still beat INDY 2 of 3 and held that wicked pass-throwing offense to 20, 17 and 10 points.

Tonight the Colts are in real trouble. Big advantage for the T T tonight.:shake:

P.S. The UNDER looks better to me?

Gman

only difference is that this Tenn team can actually score unlike under Vince. I did notice with bob Sanders out Tenn should put up some points tonight. I do think Indy puts up 17-24

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Curious as to whether you guys think Tenn would be able to cover if they don't score first tonight. If you don't I would at lease make sure and not throw too much cash at this game. Given the fact that Indy's gotten pts on first drives four straight weeks (yes one was against the Ravens), I would tread cautiously......

the one thing the Colts have going for them over Tenn is the ability to come from behind. Like many of you guys, I like the Titans but am scared off a bit by my lack of faith in them being able to come back if they get down early.....

They've won by(the spread for each game in parenthesis) 7(+3), 17(+1), 13(-3),19(-5.5), 3(-2) and 24(-9) points this season. The myth that the Titans are in trouble if they fall behind or can't cover big numbers is just that, a myth. The 2008 Titans are far more complete than the 2007 team where this was a legit concern.

 

[OSO$]

GL today G

only thing that concerns me is will Indy show up tonight? IMO I really doubt it, this is the titans first home MNF game since 04. I doubt this will have any major affect on the game, however the Titans may look for make a statement game primetime TV for what is to come for them this year. The Titans should dominate the field with their running game and have complete control of the ball. The only way the Colts win this game...is if the star veterans step it up bigtime. In any case, I think the Titans blow them out tonight...something like a Titans 24 Colts 10

 

[scdoggy]

You fuckers may have talked me into a Titans play. Regardless I still like the OVER.

Good luck tonight fellas.

 

[Free]

Let's get this one! :smiley_acbe:

 

[horses]

I agree with G-Man on this game; I see no precedent for the Colts to throw all over the Titans tonite. Fisher is a good defensive coach, is very familiar with his opponent and has held better indy offenses down recently. Indy was anemic last week against a beat up green bay defense, and with addai likely still out with a hamstring (he's listed as ? meaning he'll likely be compromised if he does play), not sure how things get better against a much better defense (because gb was so beat up). Addai is huge for this offense...even Manning says as much...the dropoff to rhodes or whomever is huge and cannot be underestimated. Really think titans are the play tonite unless somehow addai is listed as completely 100 percent, which i don't see.

 

[G-Man]

Gman

only difference is that this Tenn team can actually score unlike under Vince. I did notice with bob Sanders out Tenn should put up some points tonight. I do think Indy puts up 17-24

23, - They may score that many, but I think that could happen only in a shootout. I dont see a shootout tonight. I see a dominating game and conservative ball control, killing the clock by Tenn when they get to the 2nd half. There will be many 3 and outs by the Colts if Payton is put in the position to be predictable because they can run.

 

[G-Man]

Let's get this one! :smiley_acbe:

Yeah, lets make it a habit! :cheers:

 

[cashflowmatters]

Is this the same G-Man that use to post at Wires site?

 

[G-Man]

I agree with G-Man on this game; I see no precedent for the Colts to throw all over the Titans tonite. Fisher is a good defensive coach, is very familiar with his opponent and has held better indy offenses down recently. Indy was anemic last week against a beat up green bay defense, and with addai likely still out with a hamstring (he's listed as ? meaning he'll likely be compromised if he does play), not sure how things get better against a much better defense (because gb was so beat up). Addai is huge for this offense...even Manning says as much...the dropoff to rhodes or whomever is huge and cannot be underestimated. Really think titans are the play tonite unless somehow addai is listed as completely 100 percent, which i don't see.

The Titans have really been a pain for the Colts for a while. Good teams at home are very hard to upset. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

Is this the same G-Man that use to post at Wires site?

No - just the original one since 1991. I posted at the 'juvenile home' a few years back, where they go under 'cover' as a sports forum.

But, I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night!!! :36_11_6:

 

[G-Man]

GL today G

only thing that concerns me is will Indy show up tonight? IMO I really doubt it, this is the titans first home MNF game since 04. I doubt this will have any major affect on the game, however the Titans may look for make a statement game primetime TV for what is to come for them this year. The Titans should dominate the field with their running game and have complete control of the ball. The only way the Colts win this game...is if the star veterans step it up bigtime. In any case, I think the Titans blow them out tonight...something like a Titans 24 Colts 10

Thanks OSO. I like that predicted score you put up!

 

[OSO$]

Thanks OSO. I like that predicted score you put up!

NP G but to be honest, after talking with a friend and looking deeper into the game, I actually sided with the colts on this one, either way GL one of us shall win. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

Titans -3 second half. Theyre holding Payton down on defense. If the colts could have moved the ball enough they would have doine it already. That Titans 'D' Is very solid and should hold up good in the 2nd half.

GLTA

4 units.

 

[Free]

Yeah, lets make it a habit! :cheers:

I like these habits!!!!!!! Nice call my friend!!!!!!:cheers:

 

[G-Man]

NP G but to be honest, after talking with a friend and looking deeper into the game, I actually sided with the colts on this one, either way GL one of us shall win. :shake:

:shake:

 

[G-Man]

Yeah, lets make it a habit! :cheers:

I like these habits!!!!!!! Nice call my friend!!!!!!:cheers:

That was a great performance by the Titans who just may have a good run through the playoffs.

:cheers:

 

[cashflowmatters]

No - just the original one since 1991. I posted at the 'juvenile home' a few years back, where they go under 'cover' as a sports forum.

But, I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night!!! :36_11_6:

So are you the G-Man that posted at the site where Wire hangs his hat?opcorn:

 

[Wikeman]

As always a cool headed play and good calls G-Man, congratulation.

 

[G-Man]

So are you the G-Man that posted at the site where Wire hangs his hat?opcorn:

If U mean covers yes. But I havent been there as G-Man for years. I was at 'Bury The Book' before here - and Fondy, BAR, CKR, and the remaining owners here started this site after BTB shut down.

Feel free to ask what u want. PM me if you need to?

 

[Pirate88]

good job G-Man, had a feeling that you would hit

 

[G-Man]

So are you the G-Man that posted at the site where Wire hangs his hat?opcorn:

Also, I dont know who "Wire" is? Are you referring to a guy name "Wire-to-Wire that posted at Covers years back? Not even sure why you are asking?

 

[G-Man]

good job G-Man, had a feeling that you would hit

Thanks Pirate :shake:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

You nailed this one pretty solidly----

right on

 

[G-Man]

You nailed this one pretty solidly----

right on

:shake:

 

[JoJo]

G-Man-
You may not believe it -but I have to mention it

I pointed 4 of my friends to CTG to read your thread -And you bailed them out 70K ! yes it's not a Typo ! Cause I'm Colts fan -and I do not want to bet against my heart -But my friends need help -so You DID !
I have 4 case of Heinekien waiting for me next SAT -Damn ! I be drunk by Sun morning -
Thanks ,

:cheers:

 

[G-Man]

G-Man-
You may not believe it -but I have to mention it

I pointed 4 of my friends to CTG to read your thread -And you bailed them out 70K ! yes it's not a Typo ! Cause I'm Colts fan -and I do not want to bet against my heart -But my friends need help -so You DID !
I have 4 case of Heinekien waiting for me next SAT -Damn ! I be drunk by Sun morning -
Thanks ,

:cheers:

Aaah Cool. Just have them send me a small referral fee of 5K. Tell them Ill double their money next week.

:cheers:

 

[JoJo]

Aaah Cool. Just have them send me a small referral fee of 5K. Tell them Ill double their money next week.

:cheers:

I believied they will follow /read your posts from now on !

I ask them to sponsor a contest here for CTG - as a way to say thanks !

Good Karma ! ...

and more than likely they will -They have to !

Will let you and CTG know !

CTG forum is the BEST !with all good /knowlegable Cappers ! Like Shark mentioned couple months ago !

:cheers:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

 

[G-Man]

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while...:36_11_6: