G-Man's Monday Nighter. Browns @ Eagles 12-15-08

[G-Man]

A lot on the line tonight for both teams.

Eagles must win to get into the playoffs.

Browns must play to win, to retain their professionalism.

The 15.5 point line here is very interesting. The number caps out at exactly 10.

Basing the whole season of results on this game, is misleading. Trying to find out who Cleveland is now - and who Philly is now - is truly whats at stake here.

The Eagles have failed to cover the spread against Cincy (13-13 tie) and Balt (7-36). They covered at home and won SU against Pittsburgh (10-6) as a 6 point dog.

Cleveland has played well against Washington, NY Giants(Monday night upset (35-14) and played Dallas with four key Cleveland starters out, in a 28-10 loss.


Since the line is 5.5 over what it should be here, this is an obvious play on the dog. Especially when they (Cleveland) have played 3 straight games and scored less than 10 points in each.

Browns +15.5 (20 units)

ML +800 (2 units)

Parlay Over 39.5 and Cleveland +15.5 (2 units to win 520)

Parlay logic, is that if Cleveland scores at least 14-17 points - Philly would HAVE to score 30 or more to cover. You're betting that the Browns will score 14 in this game and that the Browns defense will keep Philly under that 30 points.

If Cleveland scores to 21-24, the Eagles may lose SU and the +800 ML, is golden - while still getting the ATS win and still possibly winning the parlay!

 

[doublem9]

love your write up..gl

 

[Tide High]

i don't understand why it is right to bet a team becaues they've scored less than 10 in the last 3 games, but this is a monster line. there's no way i'd back the browns right now with any # of points less than 30 though.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Only thing this write-up is missing is a cautionary appearance from Ken Dorsey. Tread lightly. But I agree, take the points for shits and giggles.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Eagles are a weird team, something like the NFC version of the Broncos. There is no way you can predict which team shows up.

GL Gman.

 

[Free]

Well....I don't know if anybody else noticed what happened this week. The doggies have either covered or won out right...9 to be exact with my spreads, only 3 favorites won & covered & 3 pushes....I think this is the week that the dogs come in...Your right about Both teams...which team will show up tonight....I really think the Eagles have a monster night but I also think 15.5 is a big number....I just have a gut feeling Browns fight it out with my home town team....right now I am leaning toward another dog cover....GL in your pick tonight!:cheers:

 

[G-Man]

i don't understand why it is right to bet a team becaues they've scored less than 10 in the last 3 games, but this is a monster line. there's no way i'd back the browns right now with any # of points less than 30 though.

In 25 years of capping pro teams, there is a human element to a professional team of players that wouldnt normally show up in -lets say- a college level game.

I have consistently bet these teams that were struggling and many times they win SU as well as cover the number.

I recall a game between Cincy and the Niners years ago, when the Bengals were getting 21.5 in SF. The Bengals almost won SU as the Niners never even scored what the spread was.

This game has that same picture to me tonight.

 

[moneypit13]

do you favor the under then?

 

[G-Man]

do you favor the under then?

No. > OVER 39.5

 

[G-Man]

Only thing this write-up is missing is a cautionary appearance from Ken Dorsey. Tread lightly. But I agree, take the points for shits and giggles.

They may just have a couple surprises wth Cribbs behind the center too!

 

[spanishshark]

In 25 years of capping pro teams, there is a human element to a professional team of players that wouldnt normally show up in -lets say- a college level game.

I have consistently bet these teams that were struggling and many times they win SU as well as cover the number.

I recall a game between Cincy and the Niners years ago, when the Bengals were getting 21.5 in SF. The Bengals almost won SU as the Niners never even scored what the spread was.

This game has that same picture to me tonight.

Agreed. I've been burned in too many traps by the guys who set the lines

 

[Pirate88]

Gl G-Man, no play for me, will be at GS/Magic game tonight, small play on the Golden Showers +4

 

[Ca$He]

LEts get this. On em as well.

 

[Capone]

Great write up sir but I don't have the Browns getting past 10 in scoring tonight

Maybe I'm wrong GL tonight

 

[G-Man]

Cribbs is going to get snaps behind center. This REALLY gives Cleveland a chance to cover this game and possibly upset.

 

[scraps@midnight]

Cribbs is going to get snaps behind center. This REALLY gives Cleveland a chance to cover this game and possibly upset.

there is a reason he is a return man and not a qb in the nfl...

 

[Dallas JayHawk]

ooooooh my...