****G-Man's College Week 5 ****
- Thread starter G-Man
- Start date
G-Man
Pretty much a regular
Friday
Virginia Tech +17.5 over Miami. 3 units.
ML +615. 1 unit
Line movement on this game is 10 points from original open @ -8.5 months ago in May and then (Aug 13th) to Miami -7.5.
The public perception has moved this number because Miami has gone 4-0 and has the best offense at #5 in the nation.
Both teams have returned many starters but Miami had 2 significant transfers that upped the offense greatly.
Problem is 10 points is drastic and the two teams are close in talent.
VT has a solid QB and has returned with 11 starters on offense from Last year.
Considering who they've played so far this year, this will be Miami's first tough opponent. There is no 10 point defense in college football (unless youre Michigan last year) which is what Miami has allowed per game this year.
Also, I dont believe two players added to this team cant truly turn a team into a 52 point scoring machine from a year ago that scored 31. This isnt Georgia or Alabama with a full roster of NFL grade players.
They cruised against 4 weak teams to run up the numbers.
The early line this week reached -19.5 and dropped to 17.5. At least there are a few bettors out there that see this for what it is. Pure Public Perception.
VT has NOT lit up the scoreboard, but this is a conference game for them and they played 4 straight teams that have decent numbers.
Rutgers 3-0 and plus + team of 22
Vanderbilt 2-2 plus+ 15
Marshall a minus team of only -3. which is good when considering that includes the Ohio State beating.
Old Dominion was -10 but played a solid 3-1 S. Carolina team, and lost by only 4 pts.
The Caines are good but VT has a chance to win this regardless.
If turnovers don't kill one team - it should be a close game.
Washington +1.5 over Rutgers. 3 units.
Welcome Huskies - to the Big 10! They get to start off against some of the softest Big 10 teams. They arrive with a +12 scoring team vs Rutgers who is +22.
But considering the opponents, the line ai correct. Its not the huge edge in scoring like it seems with Rutgers being a plus 22 team,.
If it was legit - the line here would be closer to Rutgers -7 not -1.5.
Rutgers compiled points with Howard and Akron. Nuff said.
They struggled with VT in a 26-23 game where VT was way behind and almost pulled it out in the 4th. Rutgers won it with a late FG w/under 2 minutes to play.
More Saturday
Virginia Tech +17.5 over Miami. 3 units.
ML +615. 1 unit
Line movement on this game is 10 points from original open @ -8.5 months ago in May and then (Aug 13th) to Miami -7.5.
The public perception has moved this number because Miami has gone 4-0 and has the best offense at #5 in the nation.
Both teams have returned many starters but Miami had 2 significant transfers that upped the offense greatly.
Problem is 10 points is drastic and the two teams are close in talent.
VT has a solid QB and has returned with 11 starters on offense from Last year.
Considering who they've played so far this year, this will be Miami's first tough opponent. There is no 10 point defense in college football (unless youre Michigan last year) which is what Miami has allowed per game this year.
Also, I dont believe two players added to this team cant truly turn a team into a 52 point scoring machine from a year ago that scored 31. This isnt Georgia or Alabama with a full roster of NFL grade players.
They cruised against 4 weak teams to run up the numbers.
The early line this week reached -19.5 and dropped to 17.5. At least there are a few bettors out there that see this for what it is. Pure Public Perception.
VT has NOT lit up the scoreboard, but this is a conference game for them and they played 4 straight teams that have decent numbers.
Rutgers 3-0 and plus + team of 22
Vanderbilt 2-2 plus+ 15
Marshall a minus team of only -3. which is good when considering that includes the Ohio State beating.
Old Dominion was -10 but played a solid 3-1 S. Carolina team, and lost by only 4 pts.
The Caines are good but VT has a chance to win this regardless.
If turnovers don't kill one team - it should be a close game.
Washington +1.5 over Rutgers. 3 units.
Welcome Huskies - to the Big 10! They get to start off against some of the softest Big 10 teams. They arrive with a +12 scoring team vs Rutgers who is +22.
But considering the opponents, the line ai correct. Its not the huge edge in scoring like it seems with Rutgers being a plus 22 team,.
If it was legit - the line here would be closer to Rutgers -7 not -1.5.
Rutgers compiled points with Howard and Akron. Nuff said.
They struggled with VT in a 26-23 game where VT was way behind and almost pulled it out in the 4th. Rutgers won it with a late FG w/under 2 minutes to play.
More Saturday
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I really have no clue what to do with Miami game and that number. I don’t disagree w lot of your points but I would say I thought Miami should have been much better last year, the qb failed them and they brought in a kid who pretty highly thought of to play qb, that is worth a lot especially when imo they were already pretty well set up with weapons. You right tho, they been lighting up tomato cans so will it look the same vs better competition?
The problem for me is I dunno how good vtech pass d is? Yes they have played much tougher teams than Miami has but they havnt faced anyone who id say has anything above a avg at best passing attack, even if you go back to last year Hokies did not play very many/if any good passing attacks, ville was one the better they faced but they ran all over them, the qb didn’t have to throw much but when he did only one ball touched the ground in 13 attempts.
I def have more questions bout Miami on the defensive side, maybe this where I should be looking for prop value? Certainly agree with you Miami isn’t holding these guys to 10. Where I might disagree is I dunno if I’d call Drones a good qb? Def don’t think we talking anywhere close to equal talent when ya compare canes qb and weapons to Hokies. Its possible drones and Hokies can run on them? Think this and Hokies pass rush be the 2 areas I have questions bout canes and the level of competition upgrade in these areas is massive. Thus far Cam ward hasn’t been touched and Hokies have gotten after qb’s. I’d think this be a strength of a Cristobal team but feel like their qb got hit a lot last year? Overall I think canes run d numbers last year were solid but I do recall a handful of games where teams ran all over them! Maybe Tuten or drones rush prop somewhere to look? I def think that be a pretty big key for Hokies to stay in the game, I don’t think they can match canes in a shootout but if they can run for 200 and get after Ward that certainly a path to staying inside the number, hell that’s a path to potential upset but I’m not sure if they can do both or not?
The problem for me is I dunno how good vtech pass d is? Yes they have played much tougher teams than Miami has but they havnt faced anyone who id say has anything above a avg at best passing attack, even if you go back to last year Hokies did not play very many/if any good passing attacks, ville was one the better they faced but they ran all over them, the qb didn’t have to throw much but when he did only one ball touched the ground in 13 attempts.
I def have more questions bout Miami on the defensive side, maybe this where I should be looking for prop value? Certainly agree with you Miami isn’t holding these guys to 10. Where I might disagree is I dunno if I’d call Drones a good qb? Def don’t think we talking anywhere close to equal talent when ya compare canes qb and weapons to Hokies. Its possible drones and Hokies can run on them? Think this and Hokies pass rush be the 2 areas I have questions bout canes and the level of competition upgrade in these areas is massive. Thus far Cam ward hasn’t been touched and Hokies have gotten after qb’s. I’d think this be a strength of a Cristobal team but feel like their qb got hit a lot last year? Overall I think canes run d numbers last year were solid but I do recall a handful of games where teams ran all over them! Maybe Tuten or drones rush prop somewhere to look? I def think that be a pretty big key for Hokies to stay in the game, I don’t think they can match canes in a shootout but if they can run for 200 and get after Ward that certainly a path to staying inside the number, hell that’s a path to potential upset but I’m not sure if they can do both or not?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Seems like a pretty big break for udub to get to start on Friday night @ Rutgers opposed to 11am sat morning! Even tho I didn’t think they would lose to wazzu I still think udub a better team, rutgers allowing 6.5 per carry against that schedule? Scary! Think I’ll prob join you on this one. Gl tonight
G-Man
Pretty much a regular
Saturday.
12Noon
Indiana -6.5 (BOV) over Maryland. 3 units
Terps have been out-gained in all 4 games this season.
They beat Virginia on 4 Virg turnovers and hung with Mich State (Minus MSU RB) on 3 MSU turnovers.
Traveling to Indiana wont be good.
Kentucky+16 over Ole Miss. 3 units
Wildcats will be in it all day. They held Georgia to 13 points just 2 weeks ago.
Minnesota +10.5 (BOV) over #11Mich. 4 units
Minnesota ML +310. 1 unit
Minny lost to Mich 52-10 last year as a 19 point dog. The two teams are exactly opposite of what they were a year ago. The line is way to high here even in Michigan.
K-State#23. -5 over Okie St#20. 3 units
LOOKING FOR K-ST TO BOUNCE BACK AFTER THE 3 TURNOVERS LAST WEEK
Baylor -3 over BYU#22 4 units
BYU neat Kansas St last week on 3 K.St. turnovers and only had 241 yds of offense.
3:30
#13 USC -14 (-120) over Wisconsin. 2 units.
They had Michigan beat, but had 2 crucial turnovers that killed drives. They had great second half but fell short in Mich.
USC will be in full game mode tonight at home.
Wisconsin traveling the California won't beat able to stop the superior passing game that USC now has.
Wisconsin is allowing 7.3 yds per pass, and only putting up 5.8 on offense.
USC has averaged 450yds per game and 33 pts. The Badgers wont be able to keep up.
Tyler Van Dyke - Wisconsin Starting QB is out,
Notre Dame#16 -6.5 over #15 L'Ville. 5 units
Revenge game.
Irish lost last year to L'Ville in @KY because of 5 ND turnovers.
Oklahoma Auburn Under 44.5. 3 units
Many injuries to offenses.
TAM#24 -5.5 over Arkansas, 3 units.
3:30PM
Colorado +14. over UCF 2 units
Colorado ML +450. 1 unit.
Its on all the networks.
UCF has the top run game in the rankings and the #3 offense overall.
But. Colorado has the #5 passing offense while UCF has the worst pass defense ranked #125!
Keep it small.
Its the Thrilla in the Villa!
4PM
North Carolina +2.5 over Duke. 3 units
NC returns 13 starters back (9 on offense)with the Staring QB averaging 35 pts/gm. NC is a +8 scoring team.
NC had FIVE (5) Turnovers last week vs James Madison.
Duke beat Middle Tenn on 4 turnovers.
4:15PM
Texas #1 -37.5 (BM) over Miss St. 3 units
Starting QB for Miss State is ops for the season. Horns have the top defense in the NCAA. It should stay that way with a backup QB for Miss State.
7PM
Stanford +22.5 over #17 Clemson. 3 units.
The Clemson defense doesn't impress me. I dont see then shutting down Stanford.
Alabama #4 +1 over #1 Georgia, 4 units.
KY held Georgia to 13 points just 2 weeks ago. The Bama defense is better than Ky.
Bama also has the better defense here @home.
7:30
Ohio State -23.5 over Michigan State. 3 units.
First team MSU faced with a defense.
OSU has only 4 road games all yer. This should be the easiest to cover.
Illinois #19 +19.5 over Penn State#9. 3 units
PSU faced 4 teams that dont score.
Illinois has faced better opposition than what PSU faced.
Illinois beat Neb and kansas while PSU beat only W.Virg. .
7:45
LSU #14 -20.5 over South Alabama. 2 units
If there ever was a game where an LSU team wanted to blow someone out in a home game, this is it. They either win big or go home and fall from the ranked top25.
South Ala only returns 4 starters on offense and 3 on defense from a year ago. They may not score much.
10PM
Boise State#25 -6.5 over Wash State. 2 units
Arizona +9 over Utah. 2 units
11PM
UCLA +25.5 over Oregon 2 units
12Noon
Indiana -6.5 (BOV) over Maryland. 3 units
Terps have been out-gained in all 4 games this season.
They beat Virginia on 4 Virg turnovers and hung with Mich State (Minus MSU RB) on 3 MSU turnovers.
Traveling to Indiana wont be good.
Kentucky+16 over Ole Miss. 3 units
Wildcats will be in it all day. They held Georgia to 13 points just 2 weeks ago.
Minnesota +10.5 (BOV) over #11Mich. 4 units
Minnesota ML +310. 1 unit
Minny lost to Mich 52-10 last year as a 19 point dog. The two teams are exactly opposite of what they were a year ago. The line is way to high here even in Michigan.
K-State#23. -5 over Okie St#20. 3 units
LOOKING FOR K-ST TO BOUNCE BACK AFTER THE 3 TURNOVERS LAST WEEK
Baylor -3 over BYU#22 4 units
BYU neat Kansas St last week on 3 K.St. turnovers and only had 241 yds of offense.
3:30
#13 USC -14 (-120) over Wisconsin. 2 units.
They had Michigan beat, but had 2 crucial turnovers that killed drives. They had great second half but fell short in Mich.
USC will be in full game mode tonight at home.
Wisconsin traveling the California won't beat able to stop the superior passing game that USC now has.
Wisconsin is allowing 7.3 yds per pass, and only putting up 5.8 on offense.
USC has averaged 450yds per game and 33 pts. The Badgers wont be able to keep up.
Tyler Van Dyke - Wisconsin Starting QB is out,
Notre Dame#16 -6.5 over #15 L'Ville. 5 units
Revenge game.
Irish lost last year to L'Ville in @KY because of 5 ND turnovers.
Oklahoma Auburn Under 44.5. 3 units
Many injuries to offenses.
TAM#24 -5.5 over Arkansas, 3 units.
3:30PM
Colorado +14. over UCF 2 units
Colorado ML +450. 1 unit.
Its on all the networks.
UCF has the top run game in the rankings and the #3 offense overall.
But. Colorado has the #5 passing offense while UCF has the worst pass defense ranked #125!
Keep it small.
Its the Thrilla in the Villa!
4PM
North Carolina +2.5 over Duke. 3 units
NC returns 13 starters back (9 on offense)with the Staring QB averaging 35 pts/gm. NC is a +8 scoring team.
NC had FIVE (5) Turnovers last week vs James Madison.
Duke beat Middle Tenn on 4 turnovers.
4:15PM
Texas #1 -37.5 (BM) over Miss St. 3 units
Starting QB for Miss State is ops for the season. Horns have the top defense in the NCAA. It should stay that way with a backup QB for Miss State.
7PM
Stanford +22.5 over #17 Clemson. 3 units.
The Clemson defense doesn't impress me. I dont see then shutting down Stanford.
Alabama #4 +1 over #1 Georgia, 4 units.
KY held Georgia to 13 points just 2 weeks ago. The Bama defense is better than Ky.
Bama also has the better defense here @home.
7:30
Ohio State -23.5 over Michigan State. 3 units.
First team MSU faced with a defense.
OSU has only 4 road games all yer. This should be the easiest to cover.
Illinois #19 +19.5 over Penn State#9. 3 units
PSU faced 4 teams that dont score.
Illinois has faced better opposition than what PSU faced.
Illinois beat Neb and kansas while PSU beat only W.Virg. .
7:45
LSU #14 -20.5 over South Alabama. 2 units
If there ever was a game where an LSU team wanted to blow someone out in a home game, this is it. They either win big or go home and fall from the ranked top25.
South Ala only returns 4 starters on offense and 3 on defense from a year ago. They may not score much.
10PM
Boise State#25 -6.5 over Wash State. 2 units
Arizona +9 over Utah. 2 units
11PM
UCLA +25.5 over Oregon 2 units
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If you recall last year ville/Irish game was an awful scheduling spot for Irish, forget the exact circumstances but I recall going into that game lot of us were worried bout Irish being worn down. In fairness to ville it wasn’t like the turnovers were unforced, they whipped ND at the Los, I agree I don’t think that happens again, ville had to be gifted 14 points last week as Gtech d really held them in check.
CollegeCapper
Well-Known Member
Congrats on a great day! :cheers:
G-Man
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Guys . Much appreciated.
