*****G-Man's College Plays. 2024 Aug24-Sept 2nd.*****

[G-Man]

Units=100.

First game is a road game for BOTH teams in Ireland.

Ga Tech +10.5 over FSU. 5 units
GT ML +315. 2 units
Transfer QB Uiagalelie to FSU (Sounds like The Musical Instrument- Ukulele) - isn't Jordan Travis.
FSU also lost a bunch of transfers.

Nevada +28 -108 (HERITAGE) over SMU. 2 unitsOriginal line opened @+20. Now an 8pt move.

Unranked 2024 in the top #25 - SMU - won 5 of 6 road games last year by 21 points or less.
Nevada returns the most starters (*6+6) in 5 years with a starting QB.
Not sure SMU is all that ambitious here in a low level game. Would expect a coast in the second half.
Lookin for Wolfpack to put up 21 here. Don't think SMU will put up 49.
Pack was 6-4 ats with a horrible team last year.
Should be much better on offense and defense.
SMU was 2-3 ats in road tilts LY.

Remain ing games Thru Sept 2nd to follow here.

 

[G-Man]

Sat. 8-24. 3-0 +1330.00
More later

 

[B.A.R.]

Holy shit I missed this thread today.

Terrific capping.

ML to boot!

 

[G-Man]

Thursday
Minnesota +2 over North Carolina.. 4 units
Line crossed over. Minn open was -1.
Loss of Starting NFL grade QB is a hard replacement. Just ask FSU.

Of 100 plus teams in College, only a dozen or so make it to the NFL draft, worthy of playing at the NFL level.
NC has lost theirs.
They did replace the loss of Drake Maye, they got a transfer from Texas AM. He is Max Johnson, a backup to King, at A&M .
Max averaged hitting 62% of his passes with 9 TD's and 5 ints. with a QB rating of 136.7 @A&M which is about average in College - but that was with a team that also returned a whopping 20 starters. 10 on offense -10 on defense.
NC is returning 13 this year with 7 on defense that allowed a not so solid 27 points per game.
Missesota retuned 16 starters with a Staring QB in their 5th straight season. Problems is they only averaged 21 points per game while allowing 27. A negative -6 scoring team..
Im Counting on the defense of Minnesota to win this and cover the number. Minny defensive talent should improve with 8 starters back. . IM looking for them to allow far less this year ,which NC may not be any better than last year by allowing 27.
With the returnees for Minn and the lack of an NFL grade QB for NC, I see the production number reversing from what they were a year ago - now in Minnesota's favor.

Fridy Aug 30th,

Wisconsin -23.5 over Western Michigan. 4 units
We have two teams on the rise. Both return Starting QB's. Wisconsin actually has a Transfer from Miami now as the possible starter. - Tyler VanDyke.
More importantly Wisky has a strong defense returning as they only allowed 2 teams to score more than 24 points LY.
Their problem was on offense where they only averaged 23 per game which was lowest in 5 years.
Can VanDyke improve on that number? In week one he should, because he is facing W.Mich who allowed 32 pts per game vs low level talent teams. Not on the level of the Big 10..
There may be a QB Duel in Wisky, with the starter LY was Brayden Locke. Not sure who will start this game?
W. Mich is also solid in returning starters. In fact, in the top 20 teams this year with 17 they have an an outstanding group of starters. .
The last time they returned 12 or more players, they ended up a winning team with a plus scoring advantage on the seasons.
That being said - means the point spread record from a ear ago will have a drastic effect in the outcome ATS this year..
W.Mich had only 2 games all year that were +24.5 and +28.5. They lost both ATS. But now they have a solid squad and amu cover this especially if Wisky plays 2 QB's in this somewhat easy opener.
Wisky also has another soft team next week, so basically Wisky is playing 2 non-divison foes who are not on the Big-Ten level.
Week three is a different story as they will face Alabama.
Knowing all this, is why I believe they will be experimenting with the QB scenarios in the first 2 games.
The goal this year For Wisly is scoring on offense. The defense is already set.
Look for a big scoring game from Wisconsin today.


More on Friday

 

[B.A.R.]

Lean both

 

[HUNT]

Have a year gman. Good start

 

[G-Man]

Friday
Oklahoma 42.5 (-120) over Temple. 4 units

Wisconsin posted above ^^^ window #4.

 

[G-Man]

Friday.
Oklahoma -42.5 (-120) over Temple 4 units


Saturday
12:00PM
VT -13.5 over Vanderbilt. 3 units
VT was a Plus 6 team with a .500 record LY. That number should double now as both sides of the ball are likely improved.
The line opened -12 with odds makers are counting on Vandebilt to fade some or at best, hold the same..
Add the imaginary 3 point HF advatage and the number is spot on.

Vandy is a negative defensive team by 12 points! Its hard to over come from that huge difference.
One major factor remains in this equation...- the defenses are miles apart - as well as the offense by a TD.
If the expected improvement goes like I mentioned for VT, they win and cover.

Penn State -7.5 over W. Virginia. 4 units
I read some data/write ups on this game and I believe that the Starting QB data for VW contained some misinformation.
Staring QB Garret Greene for WV did play last year against PSU and was beat as noted.
Its been said he started 2 games LY and had 22 starts overall in his career. He actually played in 41 games in 4 years..

I checked and Found he actually started 12 gams last year including throwing for 53.% with 2400 yards - and the PSU loss.
The PSU defense held him to only 145 yards passing.. His Rating LY was only 142.2 for the season..
The line moved as of today 13.5 points from a year ago (-21) as PSU is now favored by 7.5 points.

PSU has the best defense by far and allowed only 13 pts per game LY.
WV has only 5 defensive starters returning from a group that allowed 26! Not a good thing facing a returning QB from PSU that only lost to Michigan and Ohio State. Im not putting WV in the class.

IF my data is wrong then I may not win this. I think its right.
This could be the season Low for WV on total yards in this game We'' see.

More on Saturday

 

[Inspekdah]

GL G

 

[G-Man]

3:30PM
Eastern Michigan +2.5 over UMass. 3 units

Miami, Oh +3 over North Western. 3 units

7:45PM
Kentucky -25.5 over So.Miss. 4 units

Tex A&M -3 over Notre Dame 4 units

 

[B.A.R.]

Have a Day G

 

[G-Man]

Sunday
USC +4 over LSU . 4 units
Under 67. 4 units
Lots to consider here. Both teams lost their starting QB's and both were extremely good with passer ratings of over 170 and 192 last season.

This is important today, because Both teams will never achieve the average scoring per game as a year ago when they were scoring 42 and 46 pts per game.

The main reason the scoring was high, was because they had overwhelming percentages on 1st downs by passing the ball.

Thats going to diminish the success in yards passing per attempt this year which makes the field longer per play.
Neither team was good defensively last year - but now both are facing much lower scoring potentials with each team today.
Im with USC because they returned 9 defensive starters and that where the advantage is in this game today.
Last time they did that 4 years ago - they allowed only 26 pts per game.
Now last note; Road games are lower scoring and Both teams are on the road!

Remember the Ga Tech game last Saturday...

 

[STEED]

Loot

 

[B.A.R.]

Sunday
USC +4 over LSU . 4 units
Under 67. 4 units
Lots to consider here. Both teams lost their starting QB's and both were extremely good with passer ratings of over 170 and 192 last season.

This is important today, because Both teams will never achieve the average scoring per game as a year ago when they were scoring 42 and 46 pts per game.

The main reason the scoring was high, was because they had overwhelming percentages on 1st downs by passing the ball.

Thats going to diminish the success in yards passing per attempt this year which makes the field longer per play.
Neither team was good defensively last year - but now both are facing much lower scoring potentials with each team today.
Im with USC because they returned 9 defensive starters and that where the advantage is in this game today.
Last time they did that 4 years ago - they allowed only 26 pts per game.
Now last note; Road games are lower scoring and Both teams are on the road!

Remember the Ga Tech game last Saturday...

Great cap

 

[G-Man]

Monday Night!
FSU -16.5. over Boston College. 3 units
The FSU defense has one major weakness. The defense against the run game.
It also is facing another team who had a great run game much like GT last week. BC averaged 4.7 yds/rush which is producing 198 yards per game.

The passing game for BC was below average LY with the same starting QB this year. They averaged only179/gm in the air.
These two faced off early LY and BC was a 25pt dog @home, but stayed it with a 31-29 loss to FSU.
Now traveling to The heat of Florida is a different story.
The opening line dropped from -21 to -16.5 because of the upset loss to GT last week,. But moving the line that much isnt the issue today. It's the QB problem now that FSU has with Uiagalelei.
He was only an average QB with a career rating of 130. He had one good year at Clemson with a 146 rating and one good year at Oregon State 145.

He hit 70% of his passes Last week vs GT for 193yds. But he is operating with a fraction of a team that FSU was last year with an NFL grade QB Jordan Travis who is now in the NFL.
FSU has exactly half the team they had a year ago on both sides of the ball. They have 5 on offense and 5 on defense.
FSU under Norvell had improved 4 straight years on defense, but this is the first time had has less than 7 starters return.
Add in the lack of the same offense that produced 35 points a game and we have a problem.
The defense did a good job vs GT last week by holding them to 24 points, but they need to do better than that now in this game with BC.

In head to head matchups, GT favored by -6, lost to BC last year, with basically the same 2 teams in tact this year. GT did have 3 turnovers in the loss. So - is BC really better than GT now?
All-in-all. I think FSU has the better-grade recruits as replacements.
Today. we'll find out in Florida.

 

[G-Man]

Week 0+1. 10-5. +1660.00
L-1870
W+3530