G-Man
Pretty much a regular
Lots of opinions on these games today that differ with what I like. I see that many of these "trend handicappers" have elimated the facts that matter. Mainly that they point out that Cincinnati has lost all three games that they had a combined 5 turnovers in.
I cap differently - in that - those factors in a loss, are more important than the fact that they did lose.
Whats truly important here, is what was the margin of points in those losses. In one game the Bearcats had 4 turnovers to none (0) of the opponent. That was against Louisville, a non-bowler. But the score was 24-28. In spite of the 4 turnovers the Bearcats still out-gained them.
Cincy's next loss was against Pitt. Another non-bowler. Three Cincy turnovers to 1 for Pitt. Final score >17-24. a true loss as Pitt out-gained Cincy in that game. Most of the damage was on the ground as Pitt ran for 260 yards.
The 3rd loss was to West Virgina, a top ranked Bowler that was in the hunt for the National Championship. They also were out-gained by WV 435 to 407. But thats not surprising, as WV out-ganed every bowl-eligible team (7) this season. Still it was a good game as Cincy only lost by 5 with a 23-28 score.
The only way for Cincy to lose today and not cover is to score less than they did in those 3 losses of 23,17, and 24 points. I see them scoring at least 40 today and S.Miss will not be around long IMO. That Bearcat defense is also under rated and will do the job today.
Cincinnati -10.5. (5 Units) LOSS
New Mexico -3 over Nevada.
Loss of their starting RB shouldnt stop this team from winning a bowl game at home today. Nevada is a good opponent but no match today for the Lobo's.
NM has faced some good opposition in BYU and only lost by 7 points after giving up 5 turnovers to the Cougars.
Nevada had a great game against Hawaii as they almost won the game with a 26-28 loss. Thats what is giving them too much credit here, as they were outgained 430-350 at home. Hawaii isnt great on the road so that score is also somewhat misleading IMO.
New Mexico. -3. (4 Units) WON
BYU -6.5 over UCLA. This game is going to be decided by the two defenses and turnovers. Turnovers is what UCLA does best - thats a negative for them. BYU has had their share of turnovers as well, but they are solid enough on offense to overcome them, as they still had 10 wins and in almost every game they were sloppy by losing the turnover margin. UCLA cant afford that against an opponent that can score.
Cougars -6.5. (8 Units) LOSS Added 3 more units as 3rd string QB is starting for UCLAter
I have a gift for you guys that send me a Private Message (PM) with your email address. I'll send it to anyone who sends me a message by tomorrow. Its just stats, but formatted in a good way to cap with. You must be able to open a PDF file to see it.
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GLTA...
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I cap differently - in that - those factors in a loss, are more important than the fact that they did lose.
Whats truly important here, is what was the margin of points in those losses. In one game the Bearcats had 4 turnovers to none (0) of the opponent. That was against Louisville, a non-bowler. But the score was 24-28. In spite of the 4 turnovers the Bearcats still out-gained them.
Cincy's next loss was against Pitt. Another non-bowler. Three Cincy turnovers to 1 for Pitt. Final score >17-24. a true loss as Pitt out-gained Cincy in that game. Most of the damage was on the ground as Pitt ran for 260 yards.
The 3rd loss was to West Virgina, a top ranked Bowler that was in the hunt for the National Championship. They also were out-gained by WV 435 to 407. But thats not surprising, as WV out-ganed every bowl-eligible team (7) this season. Still it was a good game as Cincy only lost by 5 with a 23-28 score.
The only way for Cincy to lose today and not cover is to score less than they did in those 3 losses of 23,17, and 24 points. I see them scoring at least 40 today and S.Miss will not be around long IMO. That Bearcat defense is also under rated and will do the job today.
Cincinnati -10.5. (5 Units) LOSS
New Mexico -3 over Nevada.
Loss of their starting RB shouldnt stop this team from winning a bowl game at home today. Nevada is a good opponent but no match today for the Lobo's.
NM has faced some good opposition in BYU and only lost by 7 points after giving up 5 turnovers to the Cougars.
Nevada had a great game against Hawaii as they almost won the game with a 26-28 loss. Thats what is giving them too much credit here, as they were outgained 430-350 at home. Hawaii isnt great on the road so that score is also somewhat misleading IMO.
New Mexico. -3. (4 Units) WON
BYU -6.5 over UCLA. This game is going to be decided by the two defenses and turnovers. Turnovers is what UCLA does best - thats a negative for them. BYU has had their share of turnovers as well, but they are solid enough on offense to overcome them, as they still had 10 wins and in almost every game they were sloppy by losing the turnover margin. UCLA cant afford that against an opponent that can score.
Cougars -6.5. (8 Units) LOSS Added 3 more units as 3rd string QB is starting for UCLAter
I have a gift for you guys that send me a Private Message (PM) with your email address. I'll send it to anyone who sends me a message by tomorrow. Its just stats, but formatted in a good way to cap with. You must be able to open a PDF file to see it.
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GLTA...
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