G-Man
Pretty much a regular
I will be adding as I go, but feel free to post opinions and questions.
All bowl game bets are now 10 units or more.
Bowl Record. 20-12 + 108.00 Units FINAL :cheers:
Wake Forest-3 over Navy. Revenge game, from earlier regular-season matchup, when Wake had 5 turnovers in a 24-17 loss. Rare rematch for a bowl game.
(15 units) WON
Colorado St. +3 over Fresno State. Fresno 55-54 game at Toledo still sticks in my mind. Cant imagine that Colo St would have ever been outplayed in Toledo. CS had the much tougher schedule IMO and this looks like a false favorite to me. Fact that Fresno is 4th or 5th in defense in the WAC, is another reason for CS to win this.
(12 units) WON
Memphis +13 over So.Fla. Tigers have an unbelievable ground game (5.4 pr) and QB Arkelon Hall takes no back-seat to Grothe for So.Fla. SF has a good enough offense and a better defense, but not by double digits.
(10 units) LOSS
Arizona -3 over BYU. Four of Arizona's five losses were by 7 or less. BYU is in for a surprise, as Arizona only allowed 169 yards per game passing and is a top 25 in interceptions (15). Knowing that Max Hall for BYU had 5 int's against UTAH, doesnt make for a good play on the dog here.
(15 units) WON
S.Miss +4.5 W over Troy.
TCU -3 Over Boise State. Both teams have good defenses and both are capable of scoring on anyone. Difference maker here is Pass Defense and interceptions. Advantage TCU.
(15 units) L
Hawaii +2 over Notre Dame. Rainbows have a much improved defense over the 2nd half of the season. The Irish have little 'Fight' this year!
(12 units) L
Fla Atlantic +7 over C.Michigan. Backing Schnellenberger gettting points is a good thing with a coach who is known for having his teams ready. CM hasnt blown anyone away all season and I expect a close game here.
(15 units)WON
North Carolina +1.5 Over West Virgina. A healing NC team comes in with good coaching and a month to get ready. NC is facing one of the under-achieving Big East teams as WV went 8-4. Pat White has faded for 3 straight seasons now and had his lowest passing yards per attempt of the last 3 seasons, as well as less rushing yards and and less yards per carry. White is the whole offense and facing a very tough NC team, wont give White any edge at all. This one could get out of hand early if the 'Heels get to him too often. Stop White and you stop the whole team.
(15 units) WON
Fla State -5 over Wisconsin. Badgers played poorly against better programs all season and today wont be any different. New Wisky coach will find Seminole speed too much today and wont have enough offense to catch up.
(15 units) WON
California -10 over Miami Fla.. Canes are out-manned here. Failures in the last 2 regular season games against Ga. Tech and N.C State exposed the Canes as to what they play like against better teams. Playing with a backup QB today for Miami wont be a plus. Golden Bears have a very good defense and will show that in the game today. Laying 10 here is a cheap price to pay. With the Canes having to run today without a quality QB, thats going to be a problem, when they only averaged 100 yards rushing against bowl teams this season.
(15 units) Loss
NO PLAY on N.ILL/La Tech
Rutgers -6.5 over N.C. State. I wont back a 6-6 team like NC State here, as they backed into the bowl game with the 2 fortunate wins against Miami Fla, and North Carolina. Those two reams combined for 10 turnovers in the losses to NC St. and today they wont be getting those gifts from Rutgers.
Rutgers (15 units) Loss. (ugly way to lose. missed FG and extra point.)
Northwestern +14(-120) over Missouri. This game is likely to be much like the Baylor game was for Mizzo - little interest and the capacity to lose SU is on the table here for the Tigers.
Mizzo hasnt done well against teams when laying less than 21 or more than 10.
Northwestern fits right in here as a very good underdog. NW is 4-0 SU in non-conference games and has held opponents to only 11 points per game in those four encounters. Granted, Mizzo is better than all four teams that NW has played, but that wont mean much as Northwestern has the ability to strike from anywhere on the field against this weak Missouri defense. More importantly, NW also has a good pass defense that may put some heat on Chase Daniel for the Tigers. Mizzo was picked for 9 ints in the last 5 games!
NW +14 (20 units) WON
Maryland +3 over Nevada. There's probably a ton of interest on Nevada because they played Boise to a 34-41 loss. Boise had 4 turnovers in that game and Still out-gained Nevada by 100 yards. Maryland with coach Freigden is always risky, but I feel that Maryland has dropped down in competition with this game against Nevada. The Terps are a far better team here and especially on defense.
(15 units) WON
Western Mich +3 over Rice-a roni.
WM played a few really decent teams AT Ball St. and Central Mich and lost. I dont think Rice is a good as Central Michigan or Ball State, yet Ball state was only favored by 10 and CM was only favored by 2. Wrong team favored here IMO.
(10 units) WM ML +120 (5 units) L
Oregon +1 over Oklahoma St. Ducks are the best 9-3 team in the bowls. OK State did well against Texas on a 10-point loss, but were hammered by Oklahoma, who has a very soft defense. I feel Oregon will out-play them on both sides of the ball today. Both Ok st. and Oregon played Washington St and Oregon was more effective.
(15 units) WON
Houston -4 over Air Farce. Number one offense in all of NCAAF is the Houston Cougars. These 2 played in a neutral site early in the season. Weather had a significant factor on the passing game in the loss for Houston. Today I like the rematch just as much as when I had Wake Forest in the rematch against Navy last week.
(20 units) WON
Pittsburgh +2 over Oregon State. This game may be the best balanced of all so far. I give the slight edge to Pitt, because they are facing an Oregon St team that is allowing 30 points per game. Oregon St. is living off the upset win of Southern Cal earlier this year and I see the magic gone for them today. In the last game of the season, the Oregon Ducks rolled up 65 points on Oregon State on Oregon State's home field.
(10 units) L
Vanderbilt + 3.5 over Boston College. The Dore's held 5 of 6 bowl teams to 24 points or less and today I like them to make it count against BC. B.C. is a good program but with a first year starter at QB after Matt Ryan left , Im going against the Eagles here and looking for the Vandy defense to give that passing offense trouble all day.
(15 units) WON
Kansas -7 (-120) over "Minie'sota. Only scoring 23 points a game here is all I need to see to bet against Minnesota. They self destruct in turnovers when playing better teams. Experienced Kansas team returns from last year bowl game and wont be distracted in todays game.
(15 units)WON
No Play GT/LSU
Iowa -3.5 over South Carolina. ONLY one factor here is glaring. SC throws too many ints. Iowa speed here will be the difference today. Hawkeyes played well against Penn State in later regular season game. Three early losses were by a combined 9 poiints. Defense here is superior for Iowa and that will create turnovers today by SC.
(20 units) WON
Michigan State +9 over Georgia. Cant believe Im on Mich St here but after looking at their 3 losses, Im taking the points today. Georgia hasnt covered many spreads all season and they always play just good enough to win. They lost to Fla and Bama which is what they were supposed to do, but after seeing GT get hammered by LSU, I have lost respect for the Bulldogs. GA was beat by GT in the season final. MS problem, has been turnovers against outstanding defensive teams. GA doesnt fall into that category.
(15 units) LOSS
Clemson -1 over Nebraska. This is the first real defense Neb has played all season. Tigers will find scoring on Nebraska today easier than anyone they played against all season.
(15 units)LOSS
So Cal: -9 over Penn State.
Penn State cant score on the road against good defenses. (Buckeyes gave them the win in the Horseshoe.) SC will play dominant defense and allows only 8 points per game! This is the same line that USC gave the Buckeyes at USC. Really Like Paterno in dog situation with a month to prepare, but Im not betting against that SC defense. Penn Stae is 0-13 against teams allowing 12 or less points per game since 1992.
(20 units)WON
Cincinnati-1 over Virginia Tech
Bearcats lost one game to a legitimate top team,- Oklahoma. Other loss was on 6 turnovers. VT will be in trouble against the Bearcat defense all day.
(15 units) LOSS
Mississippi +4 over Texas Tech. Loser of 4 close games to Wake, Vandy, Bama and So Carolina finds Ole Miss playing a Texas Tech team that scored 500 points. Miss can score as well, but has a better defense against bowl teams only allowing 25 pts per game against teams that were a combined 48-20. TT will have to play stellar defense to win this game and with TT allowing 32 pts per game to bowlers, I like Ole Miss today.
(15 units) WON
Kentucky +3 over East Carolina. Conference mis-match here. Wildcats 6-6 record has nothing to do with how well they will play against E. Carolina. E.C. is over priced today because of a Conference Championship win over Tulsa. Tulsa had 7 turnovers in that game and EC will get beat SU in this one.
Kentucky (25 units) WON
Alabama-8.5 over Utah
Former no #1 team Bama, drops down in the level of competition with UTAH. Remember game #1 this year for the Utes? Utah 25, - Michigan 23. Bama's bench is better than Michigan's starters. Utes QB has impressive numbers but, he wont be throwing aginst the likes of SDSU, Wyoming or Utah St. in this one. If Utah had one loss, they wouldnt be in this game. Cant see them EVER playing Bama, if they would have had one loss this season. They are unfortunately playing a superior team just because they are 12-0. Texas* should have gotten a shot at Bama* (* = two former number 1 ranked teams) and Utah should be playing Ohio State, IMO. Utah also had back-to-back games against TCU amd New Mexico where Utah only scored 13 points in each game. The Bama defense is far better than those two teams today. Utah has a 'good on paper' defense. but will find stopping the Bama running game, impossible in this one.
(25 units) Loss
UConn-7 over Buffalo. Buffalo played 4 overtime games this season and won all four. I expect another close game today but I think UConn overs the 7 here..
(10 units) WON
Texas -8.5 over Ohio State.
Buckeyes are very good and can run with a healthy Wells, but Tex QB is the best QB OSU has played against since VY. Buckeyes could pull out a win here if they get a few TO's but Im not betting on if-comes. OSU was out-gained passing by many unknowns this year, i.e. Illinois, Mich St, Purdue, Wisc, Minn, Troy. What do you think will happen with McCoy (32TDs 7 ints, 77% completions)?
(20 units) LOSS
Florida: -3. Over Oklahoma
Two Bowlers who were favored by DD last year - that BOTH lost SU. Gators already beat the former best team in the country(Bama). Sooners are very strong but the Gator defensive speed will ruin the Sooner passing game. Okla QB Bradford will find the speed overwhelming and will get sacked and picked. Another Heisman winner that gets beat again (Tebow last year). Weak defense for the Sooners will be what keeps the Oklahoma offense on the bench all day. If OK had trouble with Tex and McCoy, wait until Tebow shows up with that running game of Florida. Gator defense will limit everything on offense that the Sooners have, and they will become a fraction of what they were during the season. The run of scoring 60 points a game, is long over for the Sooners in this one.
25 units (-3) WON
Added 5 units (-4.5) WON
Added under 70 (10 units) WON
All bowl game bets are now 10 units or more.
Bowl Record. 20-12 + 108.00 Units FINAL :cheers:
Wake Forest-3 over Navy. Revenge game, from earlier regular-season matchup, when Wake had 5 turnovers in a 24-17 loss. Rare rematch for a bowl game.
(15 units) WON
Colorado St. +3 over Fresno State. Fresno 55-54 game at Toledo still sticks in my mind. Cant imagine that Colo St would have ever been outplayed in Toledo. CS had the much tougher schedule IMO and this looks like a false favorite to me. Fact that Fresno is 4th or 5th in defense in the WAC, is another reason for CS to win this.
(12 units) WON
Memphis +13 over So.Fla. Tigers have an unbelievable ground game (5.4 pr) and QB Arkelon Hall takes no back-seat to Grothe for So.Fla. SF has a good enough offense and a better defense, but not by double digits.
(10 units) LOSS
Arizona -3 over BYU. Four of Arizona's five losses were by 7 or less. BYU is in for a surprise, as Arizona only allowed 169 yards per game passing and is a top 25 in interceptions (15). Knowing that Max Hall for BYU had 5 int's against UTAH, doesnt make for a good play on the dog here.
(15 units) WON
S.Miss +4.5 W over Troy.
TCU -3 Over Boise State. Both teams have good defenses and both are capable of scoring on anyone. Difference maker here is Pass Defense and interceptions. Advantage TCU.
(15 units) L
Hawaii +2 over Notre Dame. Rainbows have a much improved defense over the 2nd half of the season. The Irish have little 'Fight' this year!
(12 units) L
Fla Atlantic +7 over C.Michigan. Backing Schnellenberger gettting points is a good thing with a coach who is known for having his teams ready. CM hasnt blown anyone away all season and I expect a close game here.
(15 units)WON
North Carolina +1.5 Over West Virgina. A healing NC team comes in with good coaching and a month to get ready. NC is facing one of the under-achieving Big East teams as WV went 8-4. Pat White has faded for 3 straight seasons now and had his lowest passing yards per attempt of the last 3 seasons, as well as less rushing yards and and less yards per carry. White is the whole offense and facing a very tough NC team, wont give White any edge at all. This one could get out of hand early if the 'Heels get to him too often. Stop White and you stop the whole team.
(15 units) WON
Fla State -5 over Wisconsin. Badgers played poorly against better programs all season and today wont be any different. New Wisky coach will find Seminole speed too much today and wont have enough offense to catch up.
(15 units) WON
California -10 over Miami Fla.. Canes are out-manned here. Failures in the last 2 regular season games against Ga. Tech and N.C State exposed the Canes as to what they play like against better teams. Playing with a backup QB today for Miami wont be a plus. Golden Bears have a very good defense and will show that in the game today. Laying 10 here is a cheap price to pay. With the Canes having to run today without a quality QB, thats going to be a problem, when they only averaged 100 yards rushing against bowl teams this season.
(15 units) Loss
NO PLAY on N.ILL/La Tech
Rutgers -6.5 over N.C. State. I wont back a 6-6 team like NC State here, as they backed into the bowl game with the 2 fortunate wins against Miami Fla, and North Carolina. Those two reams combined for 10 turnovers in the losses to NC St. and today they wont be getting those gifts from Rutgers.
Rutgers (15 units) Loss. (ugly way to lose. missed FG and extra point.)
Northwestern +14(-120) over Missouri. This game is likely to be much like the Baylor game was for Mizzo - little interest and the capacity to lose SU is on the table here for the Tigers.
Mizzo hasnt done well against teams when laying less than 21 or more than 10.
Northwestern fits right in here as a very good underdog. NW is 4-0 SU in non-conference games and has held opponents to only 11 points per game in those four encounters. Granted, Mizzo is better than all four teams that NW has played, but that wont mean much as Northwestern has the ability to strike from anywhere on the field against this weak Missouri defense. More importantly, NW also has a good pass defense that may put some heat on Chase Daniel for the Tigers. Mizzo was picked for 9 ints in the last 5 games!
NW +14 (20 units) WON
Maryland +3 over Nevada. There's probably a ton of interest on Nevada because they played Boise to a 34-41 loss. Boise had 4 turnovers in that game and Still out-gained Nevada by 100 yards. Maryland with coach Freigden is always risky, but I feel that Maryland has dropped down in competition with this game against Nevada. The Terps are a far better team here and especially on defense.
(15 units) WON
Western Mich +3 over Rice-a roni.
WM played a few really decent teams AT Ball St. and Central Mich and lost. I dont think Rice is a good as Central Michigan or Ball State, yet Ball state was only favored by 10 and CM was only favored by 2. Wrong team favored here IMO.
(10 units) WM ML +120 (5 units) L
Oregon +1 over Oklahoma St. Ducks are the best 9-3 team in the bowls. OK State did well against Texas on a 10-point loss, but were hammered by Oklahoma, who has a very soft defense. I feel Oregon will out-play them on both sides of the ball today. Both Ok st. and Oregon played Washington St and Oregon was more effective.
(15 units) WON
Houston -4 over Air Farce. Number one offense in all of NCAAF is the Houston Cougars. These 2 played in a neutral site early in the season. Weather had a significant factor on the passing game in the loss for Houston. Today I like the rematch just as much as when I had Wake Forest in the rematch against Navy last week.
(20 units) WON
Pittsburgh +2 over Oregon State. This game may be the best balanced of all so far. I give the slight edge to Pitt, because they are facing an Oregon St team that is allowing 30 points per game. Oregon St. is living off the upset win of Southern Cal earlier this year and I see the magic gone for them today. In the last game of the season, the Oregon Ducks rolled up 65 points on Oregon State on Oregon State's home field.
(10 units) L
Vanderbilt + 3.5 over Boston College. The Dore's held 5 of 6 bowl teams to 24 points or less and today I like them to make it count against BC. B.C. is a good program but with a first year starter at QB after Matt Ryan left , Im going against the Eagles here and looking for the Vandy defense to give that passing offense trouble all day.
(15 units) WON
Kansas -7 (-120) over "Minie'sota. Only scoring 23 points a game here is all I need to see to bet against Minnesota. They self destruct in turnovers when playing better teams. Experienced Kansas team returns from last year bowl game and wont be distracted in todays game.
(15 units)WON
No Play GT/LSU
Iowa -3.5 over South Carolina. ONLY one factor here is glaring. SC throws too many ints. Iowa speed here will be the difference today. Hawkeyes played well against Penn State in later regular season game. Three early losses were by a combined 9 poiints. Defense here is superior for Iowa and that will create turnovers today by SC.
(20 units) WON
Michigan State +9 over Georgia. Cant believe Im on Mich St here but after looking at their 3 losses, Im taking the points today. Georgia hasnt covered many spreads all season and they always play just good enough to win. They lost to Fla and Bama which is what they were supposed to do, but after seeing GT get hammered by LSU, I have lost respect for the Bulldogs. GA was beat by GT in the season final. MS problem, has been turnovers against outstanding defensive teams. GA doesnt fall into that category.
(15 units) LOSS
Clemson -1 over Nebraska. This is the first real defense Neb has played all season. Tigers will find scoring on Nebraska today easier than anyone they played against all season.
(15 units)LOSS
So Cal: -9 over Penn State.
Penn State cant score on the road against good defenses. (Buckeyes gave them the win in the Horseshoe.) SC will play dominant defense and allows only 8 points per game! This is the same line that USC gave the Buckeyes at USC. Really Like Paterno in dog situation with a month to prepare, but Im not betting against that SC defense. Penn Stae is 0-13 against teams allowing 12 or less points per game since 1992.
(20 units)WON
Cincinnati-1 over Virginia Tech
Bearcats lost one game to a legitimate top team,- Oklahoma. Other loss was on 6 turnovers. VT will be in trouble against the Bearcat defense all day.
(15 units) LOSS
Mississippi +4 over Texas Tech. Loser of 4 close games to Wake, Vandy, Bama and So Carolina finds Ole Miss playing a Texas Tech team that scored 500 points. Miss can score as well, but has a better defense against bowl teams only allowing 25 pts per game against teams that were a combined 48-20. TT will have to play stellar defense to win this game and with TT allowing 32 pts per game to bowlers, I like Ole Miss today.
(15 units) WON
Kentucky +3 over East Carolina. Conference mis-match here. Wildcats 6-6 record has nothing to do with how well they will play against E. Carolina. E.C. is over priced today because of a Conference Championship win over Tulsa. Tulsa had 7 turnovers in that game and EC will get beat SU in this one.
Kentucky (25 units) WON
Alabama-8.5 over Utah
Former no #1 team Bama, drops down in the level of competition with UTAH. Remember game #1 this year for the Utes? Utah 25, - Michigan 23. Bama's bench is better than Michigan's starters. Utes QB has impressive numbers but, he wont be throwing aginst the likes of SDSU, Wyoming or Utah St. in this one. If Utah had one loss, they wouldnt be in this game. Cant see them EVER playing Bama, if they would have had one loss this season. They are unfortunately playing a superior team just because they are 12-0. Texas* should have gotten a shot at Bama* (* = two former number 1 ranked teams) and Utah should be playing Ohio State, IMO. Utah also had back-to-back games against TCU amd New Mexico where Utah only scored 13 points in each game. The Bama defense is far better than those two teams today. Utah has a 'good on paper' defense. but will find stopping the Bama running game, impossible in this one.
(25 units) Loss
UConn-7 over Buffalo. Buffalo played 4 overtime games this season and won all four. I expect another close game today but I think UConn overs the 7 here..
(10 units) WON
Texas -8.5 over Ohio State.
Buckeyes are very good and can run with a healthy Wells, but Tex QB is the best QB OSU has played against since VY. Buckeyes could pull out a win here if they get a few TO's but Im not betting on if-comes. OSU was out-gained passing by many unknowns this year, i.e. Illinois, Mich St, Purdue, Wisc, Minn, Troy. What do you think will happen with McCoy (32TDs 7 ints, 77% completions)?
(20 units) LOSS
Florida: -3. Over Oklahoma
Two Bowlers who were favored by DD last year - that BOTH lost SU. Gators already beat the former best team in the country(Bama). Sooners are very strong but the Gator defensive speed will ruin the Sooner passing game. Okla QB Bradford will find the speed overwhelming and will get sacked and picked. Another Heisman winner that gets beat again (Tebow last year). Weak defense for the Sooners will be what keeps the Oklahoma offense on the bench all day. If OK had trouble with Tex and McCoy, wait until Tebow shows up with that running game of Florida. Gator defense will limit everything on offense that the Sooners have, and they will become a fraction of what they were during the season. The run of scoring 60 points a game, is long over for the Sooners in this one.
25 units (-3) WON
Added 5 units (-4.5) WON
Added under 70 (10 units) WON
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