G-MAN'S College Bowl Games 2006-2007. All 32 Games Played And Rated

[G-Man]

Tuesday Dec19 SCROLL DOWN FOR OTHER GAMES





TCU -12 VS N.ILLINOIS

N.ILL comes in to this contest without starting QB Phil Horvath(doubtful) and is replaced by sophomore Don Nicholsen. Nicholson was effective in the last game by hitting 24-37 -3 int's, for 261 yds against a weak E.Michigan team(1-7 in the division) that gave up 322 points on the season. Horvath wasn't setting the conference on fire either, as he had 11 td's and 9 int's. His loss wont be critical stat-wise, but he was a senior and had leadership that wont be replaced easily by a sophomore. RB Wolfe can do serious damage to any defense and will be the key here in keeping this game close.

TCU has everything going for them here in this game as they have recorded another bowl and have done well. QB Jeff Ballard has only 5 int's on the season and has passed for 2500+ yds. The defense has allowed a TOTAL of 811 rushing yards in 12 games! For N.I. to be able to run - its going to be real difficult if TCU gets out to an early lead and is able to shut down the running game of NI. IF NI has to pass, they will be throwing against a TCU team that has 15 interceptions on the season.

The fact that TCU has had only 2 losses on the season , one which was a loss at UTAH 6-20 largely because of 3 lost fumbles in that game, they have a good chance here to really shut down the Huskies. The running game is also over-looked here as TCU has run for an average or 4.5 yds per rush while shutting down the opponent to only 2.4 yds per rush.

What the MOST important stat here is, is the record of teams played and how well each team has done on the road. TCU is 5-1 SU on the road while NI is 3-3. BOTH teams though, have a positive advantage of points scored and points allowed on the road. TCU is 25 offensive avg. and 15 defensive avg. NI is 22-21. The line here is real close as it really should be 9. But without qb Horvath here for NI, the increase to 12 wont be enough for a cover unless they get scores on turnovers. Its more likely that N.I. sophomore QB Nicholson will have trouble against this excellent TCU defense, and that should lead to extra scoring for the Frogs tonight.

The Play. TCU -12 - Rating Four (4) units. WON

 

[G-Man]

Thursday 21

BYU -3.5 vs Oregon

Jon Beck is something else. The guy can play. BYU could be 12-0 except for a close loss to Arizona St. 13-16 and a loss to Boston College by 7. I was on BYU in the loss to BC so I remember it well. The interesting thing in this game with Oregon, is that Oregon faded badly in their last three games. Two of them on the road. BYU has played great all season and this line opened at 6.5. Its been bet down to 3 already, but that number is still wrong. This game - after carefully capping these two - has the wrong number on it. Oregon should be pk or –1.

Heres why they shouldn’t be the dog. They held Both USC to 35 and Cal to 45 points on the road. That looks bad until you get a closer look. The Cal game was turnover controlled. Cals first drive was for 7 yds and got a TD.. Cals next drive was for 55 yds and a TD. The third Cal drive was 26 yds for a TD. Their fourth drive was a 65 yd punt return for a TD. 28-3 at the half. Game over.

AT USC they had 2 crucial turnovers deep in Oregon territory that led to USC's 2nd and 3rd touchdowns.. Here’s the capping logic that I consider when making a play. BYU isn’t Cal or USC, This game is a road game for BOTH teams regardless of it being in Las Vegas where BYU played last year. and LOST. I like Oregon here in this one because they should hold BYU to less than 30 points. I know Beck is real good and I usually play the better QB’s in games like this, as Beck only has 6 int’s . But the fact that Oregon played far better opponents and played them on the road, gives them an edge here in this game. BYU is capable of winning this as well, but if Oregon prevents turnovers ,they should get the money here .
While Oregon gave up an average of 30 points per game on the road,- and that includes those two bad games - they are really more like a 24 point defense.

BYU only gave up an average of 18 points per game on the road BUT, they had a severe drop-off in offense by going form 47 points per game at home , down to only 26 on the road. One game they won was a 31-17 win at TCU that would have been much closer if not for TCU turnovers.

I added this in response(In Italic) to the Ducks being thought of as one-dimensional from another thread I responded to.

I must say that BYU is more one dimensional than Oregon is Fondy. Here's why.

Oregon has out-rushed its opponents by 474 yds and has 2,270 yds rushing. Passing they have out-gained the opponent by 1,124 yds and have 2967 passing yds. BYU has rushed for 1,679 this season and only out-gained the opponents by 290 yds. Passing is their ONE dimension. They have 3824 passing yds and out gained the opponents 1,324 yds in the air.

When you see that OREGON HAS 5237 YDS THE BALANCE IS REAL GOOD. A separation of only 500 yds.

BYU had 5503 yds, but the large imbalance is mostly passing. The separation is 2100. Compare the strenth of the opponents, and the Ducks have a much more impressive season with better balance. BYU IS the most ONE-Dimensional team tonight.


Here's one more factor that must be considered in this game. The Ducks allowed ONLY 170 completions by opponents in 12 games and it was 102 less then they had of their own complettions (272)! BYU allowed a whopping 229 by opponents! While only having 53 more! The Oregon pass defense may have alot to say about what BYU can do in the air.

The fact that Oregon has played teams with a combined won-los record of 75-59 compared to BYU playing teams that were 66-78, means a lot here in this one. Last year Oregon was a better team and played a tough schedule and was 10-1. But they were overpriced and overconfident against Oklahoma and lost that game. BYU lost as well and they are better than they were last year at 6-5.
I don’t think they’re ready for Oregon and their big receivers and a strong running game. BYU will make a good game of it, but wont get the money. While BYU had the better conference record, I think that TCU was the best team in the conference. Sometimes when you win the division you become falsly over priced when playing out of it.

The Play. Oregon +3.5 - Three UNITS. LOSS

 

[G-Man]

Friday 22

Rice / Troy.

Its another game where the qb is questionable. Clement is listed ? This brings to a point, that all three Bowl games have had a starter subbed. Oregon (DIXON) played musical quarterbacks and was destroyed yesterday. (I wish I knew before I made my bet). Northeren Illinois had a sophomore backup and got destroyed. Tonight Clement may not start for Rice.

These two teams had one common opponent this year - Fla St. Rice was man-handled 55-7. Troy was beaten 24-17. Rice played better opponents and are 7-5 on the season.

Yesterday Oregon, who played better opponents this season, was beaten because of QB switching. Bad coaching move. Rice has played better opponents and are facing a qb change. Im not sitting around after I bet, and wonder who's starting.

Ill give this much here. The Play is Troy +5.5 if Clement is out. If the line jumps back to 6-7 where it was, I'll still play Troy. I'll play TROY here regardless because if Clement has had only a week to practice, from a shoulder injury, he'll be rusty to say the least.

Add the fact that Troy has SOME bowl experience from 2004 and Rice has the worst run defense in all the bowl game matchups that I checked, then Ive got a good dog in this one tonight. At least I can count on one thing here in this game tonight - the starting QB for Troy will play.

Unless I hear something different about Troy, this is the play.

The Play. Troy +the points. 3 Units WON

 

[G-Man]

Saturday 23

East Carolina /South Florida.

This one has all the ingredients of revenge here for E.Carolina. How? in a Bowl game you may ask. Because these two teams have played each other 3 times in the last few years. So.Fla. winning all 3 SU and covering 2 of 3. There is good reason that this line is small here. Its because we are seeing a redshirt freshman, Grothe starting for S.fla. .E.Carolina has Pinkney starting who is a 3yr starter. The real outlook here is how will Grothe do against this EC defense that has improved greatlyfrom last year. At the same time S.Fla held one of the best offenses (W.Virg) to 19 points and running back Steve Slaton #2 in the country to 43 yds rushing, AT West Virginia! They have one of the best groups of linebackers that are great against the run.

Itrs a tough one to call but Pinkney does have the experience and all 5 starting receivers back from last year. They are in the Conf USA and have lost 2 of 4 games this season out of their conf., while So. Fla is 3-1 out of the Big East.

I’d be on So.Fla. here - but with a lot of reluctance.because they have 3 defensive players doubtful or questionable. Also I have a hard time betting on freshman quarterbacks in bowl games , especially against a good one in Pinkney for E.C. . This one WILL be determined by turnovers. I wonder if the “redsghirt freshman” can handle the pressure. The line has jumped to 5 in this one and it should be a pk’em. But if So.Fla can kill the E.C running game and not throw any int’s they COULD pull out a win . Covering the 5 is another story.

The Play. E.Carolina +5 . 2 UnitsLOSS


San Jose State / New Mexico.

This is a home game for N. Mexico. SJS has played well at 8-4, while N.M. is 6-6. N.M is 3-4 at home and that’s not an advantage in this game record-wise. But their home games included Missouri, Utah. And TCU all bowlers.

SJS played 2 road bowlers . Hawaii and Nevada. More importantly they were 13 point dogs at Nevada and lost 23-7. The strength of SJS is the running game. The strength of N.Mexico is the run defense. They also are decent, but not great against the pass. They held TCU to only 25 passing yards.

This could be the game were N.M. coach Rocky Long covers the spread, after going 0-3 ATS on bowls here.

The Play N.Mexico – 3 . 3 units.BIG LOSS


Utah / Tulsa.

Two teams returning from Bowl game s of last year. Tulsa winning SU as a 7.5 pt. dog to Fresno St. And Utah who has covered their last 4 bowl games, beat Georgia Tech 38-10 as an 8 pt. dog.

Tulsa makes their money stopping the pass. They have allowed only 1823 yds passing on the season. Utah makes their money stopping the run. They have allowed only 1288 yds in 12 games..

The streak is over here for Utah tonight as they lose the money to Tulsa.

The Play. Tulsa +1.5. 4 Units BIGGER LOSS

 

[G-Man]

Sunday 24

Hawaii / Arizona St.

All my numbers say play Arizona St. All they did for me yesterday was lose (all 3 plays). Im fading myself here.


Rainbows -7.5 - For 2 Dimes. WON

:shake:

 

[G-Man]

Tuesday 26

Central Mich vs Mid Tenn St.

This line opened early at 11.5. Its now down to 7.5 as of game day. Mid Tenn has a large advantage here even as a dog. They match up well with CM as BOTH teams are nearly dead even on the road giving up points. Mid Tenn gives up 28 and Central Mich 27.

Central Mich though, has a freshman qb in this one, lost their head coach, and will be playing a team MTSU, that lost by one point against Troy, in a game they had a good lead going very late in the fourth quarter.

If you played this game from a statistical point you would play Cent Mich. If you play this game from the the fact that the head coach is gone and a freshman qb, then you would play MTSU.

One more fact applies here for motovation. Central Mich won a battle with Ohio for the MAC championship and that may have taken a lot of "mo" out them.

I'll play on Middle Tenn to hang around all night.

The Play. MTSU +7.5 (4 units) LOSS

 

[G-Man]

Weds 27

UCLA has one of the best field goal kickers in college, Justin Medlock.
If this game is close, he will be the guy to win it.

Most cappers feel this is a defensive game. I think the Gator defense is over rated because they faced no ranked teams that they could beat.
Florida has a weak offense as well, as they mustered only 25 pts per game. Take away the 100 they put up on Duke and Rice and they wouldnt even be in the top 70 teams in the country.

The defense will get torched here tonight and UCLA will win this easily.

Rain or wind cant stop them tonight.

The Plays UCLA -3 5 units. LOSS OVER 38 2 units.WON :shake:

 

[G-Man]

Thursday 28.

Bama +2 over Oklahoma St. Betting bama here because they finally run in to a team with a weak defense. Bama played two of the toughest defenses in all of college in their last 3 games. LSU and Auburn. The total on this game was 50 as well, indicating that scoring would be done. It will be. Mostly by Bama today.

The Play Bama +2. Five(5) units LOSS


Kansas State +8 over Rutgers. Rutgers was a 10 point dog at W. Virginia in the last game and they covered by losing 39-41. NOW we have them on the road laying 8 points against KS. Somehow an 18 point swing, between 2 bowl teams, is too much for me to accept here. After all, Rutgers is playing two straight road games with this factor. If they were playing a non-bowler, I would probably see the line as correct. But in a neutral site, against a winning team, no way.

The Play. Kansas State +8. Six (6) Units. LOSS


California -3 over Texas A&M.

This is the best team A&M has played, other than their win against TEXAS at Texas. Its tough to play upset dog, 2 games in a row against good teams. Looking for a bowl win for the PAC 10 tonight.

The Play Cal -3. Six (6) Units.WON

 

[G-Man]

Friday 29

Kentucky +10.5 over Clemson.
Choke artist Tommy Bowden is due for another disappointing performance today. Last 4 games the Tigers were anything but a tiger and played like pussy's, scoring less that 20 pts in 2 of the four and losing to whimpy S.Carolina as well.
The Play. Kentucky +10.5. Six (6) Units. WON (Lean Under 58)


Oregon State VS Missouri +3.5.
Beavers held 7 opponents to less than 20 pts per game. NONE were Bowlers except for AZ State. Mizzou can do one thing better than many dont know. PASS. OS gives up large passing yardage on defense, and over 700 more yards than Missou.

The Play Missouri +3.5. Six (6) Units WON

Houston +5 Over S.Carolina.
Cougars posess one of the best hidden secrets in college. 3500 yds passing and almost 5 yards a carry rushing.

The Play. HOUSTON+5. 7 units. LOSS

Purdue + 1 over Maryland. Purdue played no-one all season. Theyre playing no-one again today. Purdue can pass well though and will never stop passing all day. They do throw a ton of int's but that shouldnt be a problem here CAUSE MD ONLY INTERCEPTED 7 ALL SEASON.

The Play. Purdue +1 . Six (6) units.LOSS

Texas Tech -7.5 over Minnesota.
Scores galore here as TT has 4400 yds passing on nthe season. Bad part bis that Minnesota gave up ovver 3000 on defense against the pass.

The Play. Texas Tech -7.5 Seven (7) Units LOSS and OVER 64. 5 units WON

 

[G-Man]

Saturday Dec 30

 

[G-Man]

Sunday 31

 

[G-Man]

Monday Jan 1.

 

[G-Man]

Tuesday Jan 2

 

[G-Man]

Wed Jan 3

 

[G-Man]

Saturday Jan 6

 

[G-Man]

Sunday Jan 7

 

[G-Man]

Monday Jan 8

 

[MistaFlava]

Good Luck GMAN and Happy Holidays buddy!

 

[Mags]

Alright bro, let's make some scratch this Bowl Season huh!

 

[HUNT]

gl brotha.

 

[G-Man]

Good Luck GMAN and Happy Holidays buddy!

A AM an AMERICAN Flava so I will say MERRY CHRISTMAS to you bud!:shake:

I hope we win alot of the same here. I know we cant be on all the same games, but as long as everyone wins we all make money!:shake:

 

[G-Man]

Alright bro, let's make some scratch this Bowl Season huh!

Thanks Mags...GLTY:shake:

 

[G-Man]

gl brotha.

money;

 

[G-Man]

game 2

 

[G-Man]

.

 

[B.A.R.]

Prepping the thread..lol

Nice start...lets make it 2-0 tonight.

Excellent analysis

 

[G-Man]

Prepping the thread..lol

Nice start...lets make it 2-0 tonight.

Excellent analysis

Thanks B.A.R. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

Musical chair quarterbacks lose every time.

 

[G-Man]

Bowl game update/Rice -Troy

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

on it too tonight. G. surprised i found someone else, lol.

 

[texasfight]

I'm on it too. See my thoughts on the New Orleans game thread, as well as Mist Flavas.

 

[G-Man]

on it too tonight. G. surprised i found someone else, lol.

GLTY.

Thanks Yanks :shake:

 

[G-Man]

I'm on it too. See my thoughts on the New Orleans game thread, as well as Mist Flavas.

One thing for sure tonight...at least my starting qb is playing and even if I'm trailing I'll always have a chance for the last drive to cover.

I agree with your post as well. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

Uh Huh...TROY!money;

 

[E.T.G.]

:bow: You said it best with backup qb's.. Boy did I get my ass kicked tonight..

 

[G-Man]

Sat plays

 

[TroyStacks]

damn against you on everyone good health

 

[G-Man]

damn against you on everyone good health

And rightfully so. As I was buried. Three teams chosen and a total of 4 td's by them combined!

SHITTY day

 

[TroyStacks]

you'll get them today with hawaii i'm sure

 

[G-Man]

you'll get them today with hawaii i'm sure

Got 'em. GL Troy

 

[G-Man]

Bump Tuesday Motor City Bowl

 

[G-Man]

Game update above

 

[G-Man]

updated plays above

 

[G-Man]

Bumpdate