G-Man
Pretty much a regular
Season 188-148. (56.%). +12,534.00
Navy +6.5 over Army. 6 units
Everything about this game validates that Army should be favored. Especially the QB play. BUT wether Horvath starts for Navy - is crucial. Listed today as Probable - is of concern as he is dealing with rib injury.
Bowl games are reflective of how good the defenses were against ranked teams.
If Youre willing to dig deep into the games like that, it will help you see who should be favored.
Its dramatically important when compared to "Common Opponents".
Common opponents are the most accurate way to see true results. Especially when turnovers have created the winner - or the gap in the scores.
This game has a major ranked 'common opponent' with Notre Dame.
Both teams lost to ND and were limited in scoring.
Army was held to 16 1st downs and 207 yds rushing. Daily was in at QB but his numbers were solid . He ran for 145 yds. Army lost 49-14.
Navy also played Notre Dame weeks earlier and lost 51-14. navy QB Horvath played in that game and ran for 129yds.
When looking season long defensive numbers - Army has the better overall defensive by 8 points per game.
But seeing that the defenses both allowed 49 and 51 points - seems about even.
So where is the main advantage at? It in one crucial place. When Navy plays ND , Navy had 6 turnovers! Yet- even at that, they till allowed only 3 more points to ND.
Even more than that it also killed Navy drives.
Therefor, we have one glaring fact for the play. If we removed the 6 turnovers from the possible results, Navy is the better team here getting 6.5 points. This game also looks like a SU Navy win. It also is a revenge game for Navy who lost last year17-10 to Army/.
One other indicator I like, is that Navy beat Memphis 56-44 earlier in the year. Memphis turned out to ne a real good team.
Armay defense is rock solid as the never allowed any other team to score over 28 points in any other game outside the Notre Dame game. I usually stick with the superior defense in games, but the level of competition was a bit harder for Navy, to justify the defensive difference. Especially when addiing 6.5 points to Navy in the spread.
9PM Saturday
Western Michigan +9 over USA. 6 units. (Veterans Bowl)
Main scoring differences here are the level of completion.
USA slaughtered Norhwestern State 87-10. Radically inflating their offensive numbers.
W.Mich played two powerful teams to open the season. Ohio State and Wisconsin. Both road games/
The nine points is too many and this should be a close FG game.
South Alabama only returned seven (7) total starters from last year. Thats BAD. Especially the fact that they no longer have the Sunbelts NO #1 passing QB (Carter Bradley) from last year, who graduated. -.
Western Michigan returns a whopping 17 starters from last year with the Starting QB.
Their numbers are solid and even with the two big school defeats, the spread is overlapping the scoring difference here.
Tuesday DEC 17th. ( Frisco Bowl)
West Virgina +5 over/Memphis 5 units
West Virginia played 6 winning record teams.
Memphis played only 2.
I wonder what Memphis has after beating Tulane.
WV played Iowa State #18 and Penn State #5. They stayed within 12 and 22 points in those two losses.
Memphis played Tulane, now unranked.
I see that WV returned 14 starters from last year with the starting QB.
Memphis returned 17 w/the starting QB. Memphis also played nine teams with
non-winning records! Talk about a SOFT schedule
Navy +6.5 over Army. 6 units
Everything about this game validates that Army should be favored. Especially the QB play. BUT wether Horvath starts for Navy - is crucial. Listed today as Probable - is of concern as he is dealing with rib injury.
Bowl games are reflective of how good the defenses were against ranked teams.
If Youre willing to dig deep into the games like that, it will help you see who should be favored.
Its dramatically important when compared to "Common Opponents".
Common opponents are the most accurate way to see true results. Especially when turnovers have created the winner - or the gap in the scores.
This game has a major ranked 'common opponent' with Notre Dame.
Both teams lost to ND and were limited in scoring.
Army was held to 16 1st downs and 207 yds rushing. Daily was in at QB but his numbers were solid . He ran for 145 yds. Army lost 49-14.
Navy also played Notre Dame weeks earlier and lost 51-14. navy QB Horvath played in that game and ran for 129yds.
When looking season long defensive numbers - Army has the better overall defensive by 8 points per game.
But seeing that the defenses both allowed 49 and 51 points - seems about even.
So where is the main advantage at? It in one crucial place. When Navy plays ND , Navy had 6 turnovers! Yet- even at that, they till allowed only 3 more points to ND.
Even more than that it also killed Navy drives.
Therefor, we have one glaring fact for the play. If we removed the 6 turnovers from the possible results, Navy is the better team here getting 6.5 points. This game also looks like a SU Navy win. It also is a revenge game for Navy who lost last year17-10 to Army/.
One other indicator I like, is that Navy beat Memphis 56-44 earlier in the year. Memphis turned out to ne a real good team.
Armay defense is rock solid as the never allowed any other team to score over 28 points in any other game outside the Notre Dame game. I usually stick with the superior defense in games, but the level of competition was a bit harder for Navy, to justify the defensive difference. Especially when addiing 6.5 points to Navy in the spread.
9PM Saturday
Western Michigan +9 over USA. 6 units. (Veterans Bowl)
Main scoring differences here are the level of completion.
USA slaughtered Norhwestern State 87-10. Radically inflating their offensive numbers.
W.Mich played two powerful teams to open the season. Ohio State and Wisconsin. Both road games/
The nine points is too many and this should be a close FG game.
South Alabama only returned seven (7) total starters from last year. Thats BAD. Especially the fact that they no longer have the Sunbelts NO #1 passing QB (Carter Bradley) from last year, who graduated. -.
Western Michigan returns a whopping 17 starters from last year with the Starting QB.
Their numbers are solid and even with the two big school defeats, the spread is overlapping the scoring difference here.
Tuesday DEC 17th. ( Frisco Bowl)
West Virgina +5 over/Memphis 5 units
West Virginia played 6 winning record teams.
Memphis played only 2.
I wonder what Memphis has after beating Tulane.
WV played Iowa State #18 and Penn State #5. They stayed within 12 and 22 points in those two losses.
Memphis played Tulane, now unranked.
I see that WV returned 14 starters from last year with the starting QB.
Memphis returned 17 w/the starting QB. Memphis also played nine teams with
non-winning records! Talk about a SOFT schedule
