*****G-Man's '23 Bowl PLAYS (69%) L2 Years*****

[G-Man]

Saturday
11AM.
Ohio +4 (-120) over Ga Southern. 10 units
Ga. Southern had scored less than 20pts per game vs defenses that allowed 20 points per game or less. Transfers will be important here, but this game will be won by the better defense . Ga.So was not good at all on defense and allowed 30pts per game on the season and is ranked as one of the worst of the bowlers defensively.
The line moved drastically - but it is an over reaction to the transfer losses by Ohio.

2:15PM
UL Lousianna +3.5 over J'ville St.. 10 units.
UL was a Plus scoring team during the season but fell a full 6 pts vs Bowlers in to a negative-4 scoring team. They will need at least 24 pts to cover this one and against a far better defense.
UL is starting a 3rd string QB , but his rating is as good or better than Wooldridge who was out since September.
The second string QB is also out, which puts the 3rd stringer in. UL held their own vs a superior Troy team and could upset here vs first time Bowler J'Ville - who is starting a first year QB.
J'Ville got here as a favorite by barely losing to New Mexico State, but was out gained by 120yds and also was gifted 4 turnovers by NMS. That WAS their Bowl game. This one could be much different. We'll see.


3:30PM Dec 16th
Miami, OH. +6.5 over Appy state. 10 units
Miami ML+215 2 units.
Nearly the same story as the Ohio play above, as the Appy defense was also one of the worst on defense allowing 28pts per game. Offensively they are a plus 7 as they averaged 35pts per game but facing this defense will be hard for Appy. The Redhawks dont like losing and could pull-off the upset.
Miami is starting a 3rd sting QB but will be able to stay in it all day with their defense and the lack offense for Appy .
Troy was another excellent defensive team that allowed on 17pts per game and they held Appy to 23 pts but Troy pounded them by rolling up 49.
In addition - Appy beat Ga.So. 55-27 to inflate their value in the 2nd last game of the season, but did it on FOUR(4) Ga.Southern. turnovers. Otherwise that game would have been much closer, compared to the final score.
Miam held 6 bowlers to an average of only 18pts per game and that includes the 38-3 near-shutout they lost to Miami. Fla.


5:30PM
Fresno State +3.5 over New Mexico St. 10 Units
NMSU won aas a 25pt dog to Auburn and that one game has inflated this line vs Fresno.
NMSU QB Pavia has been outstanding but has a shoulder injury that could keep in the pocket instead of running the ball.
This is a home game for NMSU as its in the "NewMexico Bowl".
One common opponent for these two teams was New Mexico. Fresno was favored by -22 while NMSU was DOG by only 2. Thats a 26 pt. difference with the two teams which now are only 3.5 pts apart for this game. Im not sure Fresno has fallen 24 points ATS, in game stats, to justify the spread differences here.
.
7:30PM
UCLA -4.5 over Boise. 10 Units.
Bosie lost its starting QB to transfer to Arizona. They will be starting True Freshman CJ Tiller who has never thrown a pass this year.
Boise's offense was scoring 33 pts per game. Expect a significant drop in scoring with the True Fresman on the run.

Cal +3.5 over Texas Tech. 10 units
Tech Red Raiders have the 4th best Running back (Tahi Brooks) in College, but several players are out from transfer portal - even though Head Coach McGuire say's "Some " of the transfer players will play. I'm Not banking on who "some" are, so Cal is my play in this one.
TT lost 4 games by turnovers. They are minus -7 on the season (21-14)
TT running back with his lofty status still puts TT above average running the ball, but against Bowl level teams they averaged 4.5 which is solid, but not dominating. The TT run defense is horrible allowing 5 yds per rush vs bowlers and that gives Cal a shot at winning.
Cals run defense is decent (Ranked 38th) also allowing only 4.2 vs Bowlers - so this game is all about overall defense.
Brooks was held to only 95 yds rushing vs Texas and Cal will focus on that. Texas shut down the run and in turn it killed the TT passing game and held them to 88 yds in the Air.

 

[oakas]

Great write-ups G-Man.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great stuff, appreciate the info.

 

[G-Man]

Monday
2:30PM
Old Dominion -4 over W. KY. 3 units

Point shift (Open -2.5) is from announcement that WKY Starting QB will sit.
This means WKY is staring a freshman QB(Hilton) with 8 attempts vs teams that were being blown out and Hilton was given the chance to play at the end of the 2 games.
Both teams he faced were non-bowlers.
Old D was faced with competition level of 7 bowler teams that were 40-12 at the time they played and still managed to win the last 2 games to get here.
WKY faced several losers in the last 5 games and are facing Old D again which for Old D, this is a revenge game.
If the freshman is like what Bosie offered against UCLA on Saturday, then Old D wins this and covers.

 

[G-Man]

5-2 UP TO TODAY.

Tuesday 9PM
Marshall +13(-120) over UTSA... 5 units

Marshall QB Fancher leaving(Portal) - shouldn't matter as much as how effective is QB Frank Harris for UTSA. Harris had 2 int's and UTSA had 5 turnovers their last game and lost to Tulane.

The matchup here is radically unbalanced from a competition -level, for one main reason.
Marshall faced an amazing Ten (10) straight bowlers in 13 games and was only outscored by 6 points per game average. They were 4-6 SU vs bowlers.

Cole Pennington (Son of former Pro QB Chad Pennington) will be the starter for Marshall and has had time to get ready. He did throw 6 int's in 3 games as a fill-in, but 3 of those games were over early as Fancher was throwing Int's himself.
Marshall was held to 9 points or less 3 tines in the 5 game losing streak with Fancher starting all 5 games. Losing him should be no big deal today.

UTSA win margin vs the 5 bowlers they faced were only by 3 points per game. Three(3) of those games, were home games...

I expect the Herd to RUN well all day vs UTSA who gave up 4.4 yds per carry vs Bowlers....

 

[G-Man]

Late announcement that UTSA QB Frank Harris is out with Toe injury. That moved the line late today.

McCown likely is the starter now

 

[G-Man]

Thursday
Syracuse-ML-155 over USF. 4 units
Cuse -2.5(-130) if you cant get ML.

Hard to bet on a team that scored only 11 points per game vs bowlers, but they are facing a pathetic defense in USF who allowed 39pts per game vs bowlers.

In addition, Cuse has started scoring in the last 3 games of the season which tells me facing a team like UCF with a poor defense that they could score.
Cuse defense is superior especially since they play upper level teams.

The Cuse starting QB (Schrader) is out and so is the backup (Del-Rio Wilson). so here we are again with a 3rd string QB?
Well - the last 2 games that started a backup or 3rd string QB's all won SU.
Im betting that the Cuse defense will create scoring opportunities for the Cuse offense.
They do run the Wild Cat offense and have a top RB with over 1000 yards who IS playing.

USF allowed 41,49 and 59 pts in road games vs bowlers - so their real defensive numbers are worse when traveling.

 

[G-Man]

Saturday Noon.
Troy-6.5 (-125) Over Duke. 10 units
Troy has Better offense, better defense and Duke lost starting QB Leonard to injury last month.
Troy dominated bowlers by 11 pts per game.

NIU+2.5 over Arky State. 10 units
Superior defense for NIU. NIU has 14 pt. advantage on defense over Arky state.'

More at 3PM

 

[G-Man]

3:30PM
James Madison. +3 (-135) - over Air Force. 10 units

Utah State -ML-125 over Ga Southern. 10 units
Utah State starting 3rd string QB today,
Levi Williams gets a second chance to shine at the Potato Bowl.
Utah State's backup quarterback draws the start Saturday in Boise, Idaho, where the Aggies meet slumping Georgia State with Williams returning to the same game where he was awarded Most Valuable Player honors in 2021.
Williams piloted Wyoming to a 52-38 win over Kent State, running for 200 yards and scoring four touchdowns in that game. This year, he has the chance to lead Utah State (6-6) to a winning season and perhaps enjoy another big game while doing it.
"Bring me back to the Potato Bowl, I guess," Williams said. "But I'm super blessed and super humbled. I love this team and we're going to try to go up there and get a nice win to end the season."
Williams is a big reason Utah State is here, running for three scores and throwing for two more on Nov. 26 in a 44-41 double overtime win at New Mexico. He accounted for 351 total yards, rushing for 153 on 25 carries and completing 16 of 27 attempts for 198 yards.
His 13-yard touchdown run was the decisive score that made the Aggies bowl-eligible.

"Levi did a great job at New Mexico," said Utah State coach Blake Anderson. "I thought he did a phenomenal job coming in that last week, preparing the right way and going out playing with some poise and leadership."
Williams is actually the No. 3 quarterback on the depth chart but moved up the ladder with Cooper Legas (1,815 yards, 19 TD passes) and McCae Hillstead (1,005 yards, 10 TDs) shelved by injuries. The Aggies were 3-5 after a 42-21 loss at San Jose State Oct. 21 but won three of their four games in November, losing only to Mountain West Conference champion Boise State.

Georgia State (6-6) enters with little positive traction from the end of the regular season. The Panthers limp into bowl season with a five-game losing streak, blowing a 21-0 halftime lead in their regular-season finale on Nov. 26 in a bitter 25-24 loss at Old Dominion.
After that loss came two others, when leading rusher Marcus Carroll and top receiver Robert Lewis hit the transfer portal and surfaced quickly at Southeastern Conference programs; Carroll chose Missouri and Lewis went to Auburn.
Carroll rushed for 1,350 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and more than 100 yards per game. Lewis caught 70 passes for 881 yards and seven scores. That will be a lot of production to make up for Georgia State.
They are two of a whopping 13 Ga State players to hit the portal. Included are right tackle Montavious Cunningham (Virginia Tech) and cornerback Bryquice Brown (Boston College). One who stuck around is quarterback Darren Grainger, who threw for 2,368 yards with 17 touchdowns while adding 625 yards and eight scores on the ground.
"This is an opportunity for our football team to finish the season the right way," said Panthers coach Shawn Elliott.
--Field Level Media

E.Michigan +17.5 over So. Alabama. 10 units
EM faced 4 bowlers. All road games. Three 3 (Toledo, Minnesota and NIU) that were better than SA. (This is a home game for So.Alabama).


Northwestern +7 over Utah. 10 units.
NW ML+210. 2 units
Utah was outscored vs Bowler teams by 11 pts per game.
If NW does anything well, is creating Turnovers. They grabbed 9 in their last 3 games and won all 3 SU!
.That could be the difference in winning or losing today.

 

[G-Man]

sSorry for not posting yesterday.
GL today.

Wednesday
2PM
Tulane +11.5 over VT. 5 units.
Not fading a 11 win team as a dog vs a 6 win team, regardless of who is out.

5:30PM
North Carolina +3 over West Virginia. 7 units
N C played 7 bowlers in which nearly all of them are better than who VW played.
In fact the 2 teams that were better against WV, were Oklahoma and Okie State and WV was outscored massively 54-107. They have no reason to be favored.

8PM
USC +6.5 over Louisville. 5 units
USC has 20 players who opted out of this game - according to Field level Media.

C.Williams USC starter is out - but backup QB Moss could surprise today. He hit 72% of his passes in a backup role.

One common opponent that had redically different outcomes, vs was Notre Dame.
USC lost badly 48-20 at Notre Dame while Louisville won big 33-20.
Here's the catch. Notre Dame had five (5) turnovers at Louisville. BUT USC had 5 Turnovers at Notre Dame!
Knowing that USC has 20 players out could actually be a good thing. They allowed 40 pts per game on defense vs Bowlers and maybe the 20 fill-ins will actually be a better result.

Louisville was solid on defense all year but allowed a full TD more in road games vs overall season average.
Plummer is good but not sure he will do as well vs upper caliber team especially if USC doesnt turn the ball over.

More later.

 

[G-Man]

Wednesday late game. Other games posted are above^^^
9PM
TEX A&M +4 over Okie State. 5 units

Betting against the worst passing defense ranked #125 which is Okie State.

Okie may have the best run game - but A&M stops the run well at 3.8 yds per rush.
7 pt Line flip from original A&M -3.5 is too much, especially when this game is a home game for Texas A&M.
Okie state was fortunate to have a great edge in fumble recoveries, but if many of those won games, then they're not as good as the numbers say.

 

[G-Man]

We lost our starting QB on the first play of the game or Texas A&M was $$$$$.

Thursday.
11AM
BC +10.5 over SMU. 5 units
SMU only outscored bowlers by an average of 1 point per game. Their offensive scoring during the season was 41 pts per game, but fell drastically to 28 points per game vs bowlers.
Their 3 road wins were by 12, 5 and 4 points vs bowlers. Their one loss was to Oklahoma by 17 points.

2:15PM
Rutgers ML -130 over Miami. 10 Units
Miami lost starting their QB (VanDyke), which will be too much for them to win this.
More importantly, we have a dominating defense by Rutgers as they held Ohio State to their season low in total yards (319) in a 35-16. Rutgers loss.
They also held Northwestern to (312) and played well against Penn State holding them to total 322 yds. All teams with a won-loss record of 8-4 or better.
Miami fell to -6-6 and is now an average team.

Rutgers faced far tougher opponents which is an advantage today, knowing that Miami is without their QB.
Its almost a home game for Rutgers, playing in Yankee Stadium today.
Im going with Rutgers and my guess is that Miami wont score much vs a defense that allowed only 26pts average per game vs bowlers all season.

More later

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck.

Rutgers looks good.

 

[Carolina Guy]

I like both of them. Let's get it!

 

[G-Man]

5:45PM
Kansas State -Ml -145 over NC State. 5 units
Would still play a -3.

 

[G-Man]

Thursday Continued...
9:15PM
Sooners +1.5 over Arizona. 5 units
The Sooners have a plus +20 pts scoring advantage over bowlers this season. Thats a huge factor.
Public opinion made Arizona a favorite for good reason. They smashed their last 6 opponents. Three(3) were bowlers - but none of them have a 42 point offense.
I dont think they have enough defense to shut down Oklahoma who has posted an AMAZING 500 yards of offense per game against Bowlers.!

If The Sooners get the lead, they wont give it up.

 

[G-Man]

Friday
12Noon.

Clemson -3(-135) over KY. 5 units
Kentucky was out scored by 16pts per game vs bowlers. and they allowed an astonishing 40 pts per game average,

Clemson has struggled all year and losing tp Duke and FSU was the indicator they they were not as good as projected.
What is still solid about Clemson is their pass defense. It holds the average yards per pass at one of the best of all the bowlers, ranked #5 at 4.8 in regular season combined, while still very solid vs bowlers at 5.2.

KY on the other hand is very poor allowing 9.2 yds per pass ands its also 3 yds per pass less than what they do on offense vs bowlers.

The Clemson run game dominated opponents and has 163 yds per game vs bowlers while KY only averaged 98 yds vs bowlers.

Clemson also holds a superior advantage in first downs over opponents by a whopping 280 while allowing only 173.
KY first downs suffer and are negative, with 209 while opponents had 241

KY is a passing team but hey allow opponents to have more success - with a defense pass rating of 140 while Clemson hold opponents to only 98.

The SEC is a dominating conference historically - but has softened in the last several years.

The fact that Clemson dominated in first downs over KY defensively - I see KY having a hard time staying with Clemson.

KY star RB Davis ( reason for opening line dropping) is playing, after saying he was declaring for the draft - and he had 1000 yds rushing this season on a team that only avaerged only 98 yds per game vs bowlers.

I think Clemson shuts him down and if you cant run the ball and are relying on passing against the #5 passing defense - then show me.

More later

 

[G-Man]

2PM
Notre Dame -4.5 over Oregon State. 10 units
Two teams with backup QB's.
The Sun Bowl could have featured a quarterback battle between Sam Hartman and DJ Uiagalelei.
Instead, two signal-callers making their first starts of the season will be on display when No. 16 Notre Dame battles No. 19 Oregon State on Friday in El Paso, Texas.
Hartman opted out of the contest for Notre Dame to prepare for the NFL draft, while Uiagalelei of Oregon State entered the transfer portal.

Also, Beavers second-string quarterback Aidan Chiles entered the portal and chose Michigan State, the school that just hired Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State to be its coach. That puts a third stringer in a QB for the Beavers..

Would have to play ND just from a player quality factor.

 

[G-Man]

3:30PM
Iowa State -9.5 (-130) <Buy the point. over Memphis. 10 units
Iowa Stats played within 10 points of Texas and beat Kansas State Those two teams had 5 combined losses in 26 games.
Iowa St. played far tougher bowl teams all of which combined were higher ranked that who Memphis played.
Just that fact Memphis gave up an average of 443yds/gm and ISU gave up only 375 makes Iowa State the play.

 

[G-Man]

Shocking but True.,
Ranked teams were the worst bet of all when they were ranked higher than other ranked teams or when playing teams that were Unranked.

Ranked vs Lower ranked or unranked, ATS
Teams in RED lost

JM (24(+2.5 lost to Air Force. 31-21.
Utah (22) los to Northwestern. 14-7.
Kansas (25) -6.5 WON vs UNLV
Tulane (22) lost to VT -12.5. 41-20.
N. Carolina(20)+9.5 lost to West Virg. 30-10.
Louisville(15) -4.5 lost to USC. 42-28.
A&M (20) +3.5 lost to Ok State. 31-23.
SMU (24) -14.5 lost to BC.23-14.
N.C.St. (18) +2.5 lost to lower ranked K.St.. 28-19.
Clemson (22) -3.5 Won SU but Lost ats to KY 38-35.
Notre Dame (16) won vs Oregon state. 40-8.
Ohio State(7) -4.5 lost to Missouri(9) 14.3.
Penn State(10) lost to (11) Mississippi. 38-25.
Fla.St. (5) lost to Georgia(6) 63-3.

Today we have Unranked Wisconsin facing #13 Ranked LSU


Noon:
Wisconsin +10(130) over LSU(13). 10 units
Betting in better defense holding opponents to 19 per game.


1PM
Iowa(17) +5.5 over Tennseeee (21). 10 units
Iowa held bowler opponents to a low of 4.4 yds per pass. Best of all the bowlers. Tennessee starting RB's are out,

Liberty (23)+18.5 over Oregon (8). 20 units.
Liberty ML+650. 3 units
Liberty Could actually win SU.
Liberty averages and outstanding 10 yards per pass!
Oregon lost badly to Washington in the payoff game in the stats by 100 yds.


5PM
Alabama(4) +3(-135) over Michigan(#1) 20 units
More later.

 

[B.A.R.]

Happy New year G Man