2025 NBA Championship Odds: Which Teams Can Dethrone the Celtics?
NBA Championship Odds (per Bovada)
Boston +230
Oklahoma City +240
Cleveland +650
Los Angeles Lakers +850
Denver +1300
New York +1400
...
Why I Don't Like Cleveland
If a team is worth investing in to win the championship, then it must be expected to, at the very least, make it to the championship series where bettors who invested in it could hedge to guarantee profit.
But Cleveland is not going to make it out of the East. The Cavaliers cannot beat Boston four times.
They lost four of five games in last year's postseason series with Boston, failing to look remotely competitive.
In the current regular season, they continue to exhibit one deficiency that will sustain their demise in a future series against Boston. Their perimeter defense is not good enough.
They struggle in general against five-out offenses, and Boston has one of the NBA's best, if not the best, five-out offense. The Celtics make the most threes per game and will be too difficult for a Cleveland team that ranks 14th at limiting opposing three-point makes to defend.
Video footage Cleveland shows that Cleveland's perimeter defense lacks sufficient communication and connectedness.
Why I Don't Like the Lakers
At the current price, the Lakers aren't worth investing in.
Their defense is not good enough. They miss annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis.
In the postseason, to have a chance of getting out of the West, they'll have to contend with elite centers, such as Denver's Nikola Jokic, and other very good scoring bigs, such as Oklahoma
City's Chet Holmgren. Davis was the frontcourt defensive piece that the Lakers needed to help them contain those scorers.
Why I Don't Like New York
The Knicks won't have a championship-caliber defense with Karl-Anthony Towns, who is anyhow a known underperformer in the postseason, at center.
Towns' rim protection is non-existent.
Their perimeter defense is also insufficient. Ranking 16th at limiting opposing three-point makes, they couldn't get past the Celtics.
Why I Don't Like the Nuggets
Their bench is awful. This team lacks sufficient depth.
They lack a decent guard, discounting the aging Russell Westbrook, alongside Jamal Murray.
Their bench players in general are lacking in shooting — specifically in guys who trust themselves to make threes consistently at a high volume — and defense.
Oklahoma City's Offense
One reason why I like the Thunder is their elite offense, which ranks sixth in offensive rating.
Now, they like to run more than most teams. People tend to be prejudiced against transition-heavy offenses in the postseason due to the adage that games slow down in the playoffs and that, accordingly, half-court offense matters more in the postseason.
These people are right, but their prejudice is still misplaced.
Yes, the game does slow down in the playoffs. However, great offenses can and should want to maintain their ability to execute in transition.
For example, in 2019, 2020, and 2021, the Raptors, Lakers, and Bucks ranked second, second, and first, respectively, in transition frequency.
NBA champions repeatedly prove to be teams that like to run.
The Thunder, anyhow, are also great in the halfcourt. They have the best player in the game right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is heavily favored to win MVP, due to his scoring prowess and his ability to get his teammates involved.
Oklahoma City's Defense
The Thunder are also elite on defense. They rank first in defensive rating.
They are well-stacked with stout perimeter defenders and solid paint protectors.
One great defender is Luguentz Dort, who was very close to making the All-Defensive Second Team last year. Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander were also close.
Moreover, advanced metrics point to Isaiah Hartenstein being one of the NBA's top frontcourt defenders.
He arguably does the most to help protect the paint, although his teammates with their digging and other tactics contribute to the difficulty that opposing ball-handlers encounter when they try to drive inside.
Hence, the Thunder allow the second-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Largely thanks to Dort and Gilgeous-Alexander, they also allow the fourth-fewest three-point makes, positioning them to match up well against a team like Boston.
Sleeper
I find the Indiana Pacers absurdly priced.
They have sufficient experience after making it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year.
It didn't look like it to casual observers, because they were 10-15, but they are getting better relative to last season.
Early this season, they dealt with injuries that caused them to underperform.
But with players getting healthy, they are 20-8 since that rough start.
Since January, the Pacers rank eighth in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating.
For comparison's sake, in the same span of time favored Boston ranks ninth in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating.
The Pacers have a shot-block machine in Myles Turner, Defensive Player of the Month in January Andrew Nembhard is a top-caliber point-of-attack defender, and lengthy Aaron Nesmith regularly contains the opposing team's top threat, as evident in his success limiting the field goal percentage of New York star Jalen Brunson.
On offense, Nembhard is a valuable secondary creator alongside point guard Tyrese Haliburton.
The Pacers have shooters, ranking tenth in three-point percentage, and a great facilitator like Haliburton to put them in position to succeed. They are also, again partly due to Haliburton, the third-most efficient team around the basket.
Takeaway
The Thunder have the superstar, the halfcourt and transition offense, and the elite perimeter and interior defense to win it all.
Indiana is a worthy sleeper with its marked improvements on offense and defense.
So, let's invest .75 units in the Thunder and .25 units in the Pacers.
Best Bet: Thunder +240 at Bovada & Pacers +15000 at Bovada
NBA Championship Odds (per Bovada)
Boston +230
Oklahoma City +240
Cleveland +650
Los Angeles Lakers +850
Denver +1300
New York +1400
...
Why I Don't Like Cleveland
If a team is worth investing in to win the championship, then it must be expected to, at the very least, make it to the championship series where bettors who invested in it could hedge to guarantee profit.
But Cleveland is not going to make it out of the East. The Cavaliers cannot beat Boston four times.
They lost four of five games in last year's postseason series with Boston, failing to look remotely competitive.
In the current regular season, they continue to exhibit one deficiency that will sustain their demise in a future series against Boston. Their perimeter defense is not good enough.
They struggle in general against five-out offenses, and Boston has one of the NBA's best, if not the best, five-out offense. The Celtics make the most threes per game and will be too difficult for a Cleveland team that ranks 14th at limiting opposing three-point makes to defend.
Video footage Cleveland shows that Cleveland's perimeter defense lacks sufficient communication and connectedness.
Why I Don't Like the Lakers
At the current price, the Lakers aren't worth investing in.
Their defense is not good enough. They miss annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis.
In the postseason, to have a chance of getting out of the West, they'll have to contend with elite centers, such as Denver's Nikola Jokic, and other very good scoring bigs, such as Oklahoma
City's Chet Holmgren. Davis was the frontcourt defensive piece that the Lakers needed to help them contain those scorers.
Why I Don't Like New York
The Knicks won't have a championship-caliber defense with Karl-Anthony Towns, who is anyhow a known underperformer in the postseason, at center.
Towns' rim protection is non-existent.
Their perimeter defense is also insufficient. Ranking 16th at limiting opposing three-point makes, they couldn't get past the Celtics.
Why I Don't Like the Nuggets
Their bench is awful. This team lacks sufficient depth.
They lack a decent guard, discounting the aging Russell Westbrook, alongside Jamal Murray.
Their bench players in general are lacking in shooting — specifically in guys who trust themselves to make threes consistently at a high volume — and defense.
Oklahoma City's Offense
One reason why I like the Thunder is their elite offense, which ranks sixth in offensive rating.
Now, they like to run more than most teams. People tend to be prejudiced against transition-heavy offenses in the postseason due to the adage that games slow down in the playoffs and that, accordingly, half-court offense matters more in the postseason.
These people are right, but their prejudice is still misplaced.
Yes, the game does slow down in the playoffs. However, great offenses can and should want to maintain their ability to execute in transition.
For example, in 2019, 2020, and 2021, the Raptors, Lakers, and Bucks ranked second, second, and first, respectively, in transition frequency.
NBA champions repeatedly prove to be teams that like to run.
The Thunder, anyhow, are also great in the halfcourt. They have the best player in the game right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is heavily favored to win MVP, due to his scoring prowess and his ability to get his teammates involved.
Oklahoma City's Defense
The Thunder are also elite on defense. They rank first in defensive rating.
They are well-stacked with stout perimeter defenders and solid paint protectors.
One great defender is Luguentz Dort, who was very close to making the All-Defensive Second Team last year. Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander were also close.
Moreover, advanced metrics point to Isaiah Hartenstein being one of the NBA's top frontcourt defenders.
He arguably does the most to help protect the paint, although his teammates with their digging and other tactics contribute to the difficulty that opposing ball-handlers encounter when they try to drive inside.
Hence, the Thunder allow the second-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Largely thanks to Dort and Gilgeous-Alexander, they also allow the fourth-fewest three-point makes, positioning them to match up well against a team like Boston.
Sleeper
I find the Indiana Pacers absurdly priced.
They have sufficient experience after making it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year.
It didn't look like it to casual observers, because they were 10-15, but they are getting better relative to last season.
Early this season, they dealt with injuries that caused them to underperform.
But with players getting healthy, they are 20-8 since that rough start.
Since January, the Pacers rank eighth in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating.
For comparison's sake, in the same span of time favored Boston ranks ninth in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating.
The Pacers have a shot-block machine in Myles Turner, Defensive Player of the Month in January Andrew Nembhard is a top-caliber point-of-attack defender, and lengthy Aaron Nesmith regularly contains the opposing team's top threat, as evident in his success limiting the field goal percentage of New York star Jalen Brunson.
On offense, Nembhard is a valuable secondary creator alongside point guard Tyrese Haliburton.
The Pacers have shooters, ranking tenth in three-point percentage, and a great facilitator like Haliburton to put them in position to succeed. They are also, again partly due to Haliburton, the third-most efficient team around the basket.
Takeaway
The Thunder have the superstar, the halfcourt and transition offense, and the elite perimeter and interior defense to win it all.
Indiana is a worthy sleeper with its marked improvements on offense and defense.
So, let's invest .75 units in the Thunder and .25 units in the Pacers.
Best Bet: Thunder +240 at Bovada & Pacers +15000 at Bovada
