futures discussion thread---interesting numbers

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
I have some opinions and would like to hear others..

discuss... focuss on value-- is what I'd like to discuss..

the favorites are obvious but for me there is a lot of value for the next level of teams
 
first thing I did in NFC was kick out 9ers.. like the team some but can't believe they are favs to win NFC... anyone else see that as strange? they could win it but for value purposes I gotta kick that shit out.

so, if you agree to kick out the 9ers, pretty good odds on all that are left especially my play
 
I don't like the value on Niners either. Huge ? with Kap in the playoffs and frankly the gap between the 4-6 teams and 1-3 teams is tighter in the NFC.

I find it hard to like Green Bay's path to the Super Bowl. Potentially difficult, emotionally taxing game with the Vikings and then going to the West Coast for the Niners after tackling Adrian Peterson for two weeks.

Minnesota? Not going to win the NFC.

Washington? Great story, but I don't see 3 straight wins here.

That leaves Seattle and Atlanta. Frankly I love Seattle at +550. No preseason pressure, they've been hot, sky high confidence, they play a postseason brand of football.

I think the Falcons are better than recent versions but one still has to wonder. They don't run the ball particularly well and their defense is nothing special.
 
my place has packers +900 on sb and +400 nfc... thats my play and hedging it a bit with Falcolns nfc +200..

love the vikes but they have no chance at home at Lambau as SU winner..

GB at SF ... toss up but if the pack get through it, extreme value kicks in..

GB at ATL... I am hedged with a profit either way, but if GB wins it..

GB superbowl vs denver or NE.... like them but at +900 I am a big winner either way..
 
and btw,,, disregarding all rookie QBs for super bowls.. too tough a road
 
I think there is value on the Broncos at +120 or whatever. It'd be a huge upset if they lose to either Cin, Balt or Indy at home off a bye. They're as close as a lock to play in the AFCG as it gets. Essentially a play on the Broncos for the AFC is getting them in the AFC title game at +120. Seems like a great deal to me.
 
ya, +120 for the globetrotters to win two games against the washington generals is decent value but it dont get me excited to win two games against playoff competition... Obviously they have a good chance to make the super bowl... more interested in much more plus value discussion.. this thread may go no where..


and all comments made with respect.. just trying to take it a different direction from the obvious..
 
i really think we see GB at the A-T-L... make me a line? and keep in mind to get there GB just won at SF, hypothetically..
 
capping potential matchups tonight... GB at SF is a very good one... if GB is healthy they have everything I look for in that matchup.. lined at Sf -3 prolly
 
I'd expect it GB@ SF -3.5 or 4.

GB @ ATL is probably a pick'em.

I hear what you're saying about value on the futures. I like the GB bet, it's logical and has very good value for a team with a marquee QB and playoff experience. Honestly the only non-Bronco or Pat future in the AFC worth considering are the Texans and it's tough to see them winning in their current form at both Foxboro and Denver. Any other AFC future is essentially lighting your cash on fire.
 
tee*dub said:
you and 310 million other american citizens... value at the next level is the discussion homie... thoughts on nfc?
Click to expand...
LOL I hear ya....I believed it a while ago tho ;)...value

NFC? shit the value is on the rooks.....

I think you answering your own question

you may have preseason bets and mid season bets etc....hedge, pledge, etc

GL
 
I love the value on Seattle.

My problem with GB is that SF game, that's the real problem. It's really hard for me to see them winning that game—although I do expect the game to be close.

That said, if they get through SF I do think they can beat Atlanta in ATL. Honestly I kind of expect them to. So, to me, what you're really doing is asking, is the number you're getting now to win the NFC > the ML number you'll get at SF.

I agree you can't put that ATL/GB spread much over -3. I think at worst (injuries notwithstanding) you get Atlanta -3.5 or -4, but that's assuming the books want to take a stand with the Falcons.

More than likely I think you get Atlanta -2.5 to make sure they balance the action out a bit, because they'll get GB money no matter what the line is.

Given that, there's no way you get a +400 ML in that game so the answer would be yes, to me there's good value there.
 
JoeP, you still like SF with the status of Justin Smith not 100% That guy is a beast and is huge for that d line...he opens up gaps for Aldon and company, not to say Aldon's season was solely on J smith, but he made it a helluva lot easier on his team...

Justin Smith playing through the torn tendon i believe.
 
if you like seattle just bet the ML every game and double your bet each time. it will pay better than the future prob.
 
Tee you will have several outs if you do both gb and atl. You know what I mean. Gl
 
If Seattle does what I expect them to do this week, they'll be favored in Atlanta or only +3 in SF next week. Nice time to get on them right now. #1 in DVOA, have been rolling both good and bad teams, and shakiness on the road has completely disappeared for a while now.
 
JoeP, you still like SF with the status of Justin Smith not 100% That guy is a beast and is huge for that d line

True. But he did return to practice from what I read. That gives him another week to get closer.

My problem is less with SF than it is with GB. On the road, with that defense, I have trouble backing the Packers.
 
I have trouble backing kapernick. I don't mind luck, Rg3, and wilson. All are pro bowl caliber qbs regardless of experience. Jmo.
 
I like the value on the Ravens at +2350. If Balt and Cincy win, I believe the Ravens would go to New England , and I could see the Ravens giving NE some troubles matchup wise. If you are looking for a longer shot team with a chance, I'd say Balt is it
 
Joe Public said:
JoeP, you still like SF with the status of Justin Smith not 100% That guy is a beast and is huge for that d line

True. But he did return to practice from what I read. That gives him another week to get closer.

My problem is less with SF than it is with GB. On the road, with that defense, I have trouble backing the Packers.
Click to expand...


Yes he did, but he's wearing a brace, wonder how effective he'll be.
HUNT said:
I have trouble backing kapernick. I don't mind luck, Rg3, and wilson. All are pro bowl caliber qbs regardless of experience. Jmo.
Click to expand...

I think CK deserves the some respect, he only made one mistake and it was in st.louis...but one thing I do not like about him is how he manages the clock, but he'll learn as time progresses
 
I think GB isnt going to go far myself... everyone seeing the same thing and say they are "peaking" at the right time. this isnt the same team that went a few years ago. they are by far the offensive and defensive powerhouses when they beat Pitt.. also looking at Denver they have not won any games against winning opponents except Baltimore, there three losses to hou, atl and i forget off the top of my head show me that when they face the best of the best they struggle.. they may make it but won win it.. i like ATL, SEA, or SF throwing out SF and ATL i would take best value with SEATTLE. In the NFC i think DEN and nE slips up as well as HOU.. like BAL and CINNI for best value.. so betting SEATTLE and SF or Atl AND bal AND CINNCI for me
 
Gb has rodgers though, woodson will be back. Never out a dynamic qb with a chip on his shoulder. This pack team, Oline worries me a little though but in shootouts I want rodgers on my side. Kind of remind me of the Giants a little last few years
 
HUNT said:
Tee you will have several outs if you do both gb and atl. You know what I mean. Gl
Click to expand...

exactly.. can't think of a better combination of value and possible big upside, with very little downside... And I agree with Hunt... Kaepernick, nah, made some money on him early but plenty of tape on him now, and I don't see it... personally, I think the 9ers are way overrated on the future bets..

good thread..

how many games have the packers played with Jennings, Cobb and Nelson?

i like em but think their path to the SB--- most dangerous game is actually the first one.. That sounds insane but AP could go fucking beserk on them again.. Without winfield tho vikes have no chance in the secondary.. haven't seen his update yet...

I think the Pack are the team to beat in the nfc... Seems like the Giants in both their SB runs and was on both of those.... can't believe more people not named Fondy aren't gushing over that value...
 
raems said:
If Seattle does what I expect them to do this week, they'll be favored in Atlanta or only +3 in SF next week. Nice time to get on them right now. #1 in DVOA, have been rolling both good and bad teams, and shakiness on the road has completely disappeared for a while now.
Click to expand...

i think atlanta would be -3 at home
 
Agree with value on GB. Interesting to see what Seattle does of they win this week. Travel back home just to come back to Atlanta next week? Eventually has to wear on a team no?
 
Agree 100% tee. GB fairly large with a hedge on ATL is the best way to take advantage of the current numbers.

In a related note...5 dimes has NFC numbers up but not AFC? Makes no sense.
 
Playoff time anything can happen, and what you think will happen usually doesnt happen
 
tee*dub said:
my place has packers +900 on sb and +400 nfc... thats my play and hedging it a bit with Falcolns nfc +200..

love the vikes but they have no chance at home at Lambau as SU winner..

GB at SF ... toss up but if the pack get through it, extreme value kicks in..

GB at ATL... I am hedged with a profit either way, but if GB wins it..

GB superbowl vs denver or NE.... like them but at +900 I am a big winner either way..
Click to expand...

Damn, sounds good enough to me....and actually, makes that situation seems doable for the +EV situation. Trying to see how Baltimore fits in there on the other side.
 
And hey, what about Seattle at GB for the NFC Championship....anyone talk about that possible scenario yet? Seattle riding hot, goes into Washington wins 20-16ish, then upsets Atlanta in a weird 27-25 kinda game.....GB rolls this week, then beats SF by 3-4...... Ratings GOLD! Stern would be all over it.
 
Just grabbed both atl and gb at +750, have Seattle and Washington as well. Washington +5000 and Seattle +1600. I'm pretty confident one of these teams come out of nfc.

I will be trading, hedging, the whole drill off these numbers.
 
Sea would not be favored in Atl. I actually think this is Matt Ryan's year, but agree value is with GB in NFC and Balt in AFC
 
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