Futures and Week 1 Plays...

horses

horses

Brady licks Marino's knob
Finally back from vacation...

I noted these two futures in my "B12 advice" thread which can be found on Page 2 of this forum:

Note: All plays are for 1 unit unless otherwise noted; I am a flat bettor though I vary my units from sport to sport.

Oklahoma over 10 wins (-105)
Ohio St to win the B10 (+100)

Realize these lines are no longer available, but these were posted in the thread noted above when the greek had these lines.

So far two sides...

Miami (Oh) -1' over Vanderbilt (Note: I would still play this at 3, but not higher).

Tennessee -6' over UCLA (choked on this one as I got lazy; I knew Olson wasn't going to play, but the official announcement occurred yesterday which drove the line from 6 to 6'; 7 is right around the corner).

Will provide more detail on these and more plays going forward; naturally, all comments and questions are welcome. I especially appreciate any contrarian viewpoints presented in an intelligent manner.

BOL to everyone this year; college football is a great thing!

Adding:

South Carolina -12 over North Carolina St (plenty of discussion already on this game; bottom line is NCS should struggle to get FD's and 'Cocks should have plenty of short fields).

Fri:

Temple -7 over Army (1/2 unit)

Sat:

Wyoming -12 over Ohio
USC -19' over Vagina
Utah +3' over Michigan
UL Lafayette +10 over S Miss
W Mich +15 over Nebraska
 
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It should be noted that All-SEC punter Colquitt will not play for Tennessee in this game.
 
Thanks for the words G-Man and Dwight.

Also note that WR Baker (Vandy) will miss.
 
Horses , you take more vacations than congress and W combined.

I agree about the tennessee line and it is also a game i am looking at. I hate being rushed.

gl brutha
 
VK, lol, have to get these vacations out of the way before football season starts.

On another note, I don't know what the hell is wrong with some of my friends...I had two wedding invitations waiting for me when I got back for fall Saturday weddings. WTF is wrong with people, anyway?! Fortunately, I'm not actually in either of them.

Tennessee now a full seven.
 
GL, I don't have the balls to take Miami but I am checking out that under whenever the lines do get released. On Tenn with ya and the 2 futures looks great
 
Thanks ETG; I am very happy with the two futures I played and the odds I got.

I understand people's reluctance to take a MAC team as a (slight) favorite over an SEC team. All I can do, however, is look at the rosters and bet accordingly. Vandy definitely has an SEC caliber secondary, but they are so young elsewhere, they more closely resemble a MAC team to start the year than an SEC team. Losing a player like Bennett is esp hard for a program like Vandy and now their leading returning receiver Smith (I said Baker above, screw up) is out for the first couple weeks of the year; unless Adams or Nickson, neither of whom has impressed enough in the spring to win the job, use their athleticism to get FD's, I really see Vandy struggling on offense with an entirely new OL.
 
horses said:
Thanks ETG; I am very happy with the two futures I played and the odds I got.

I understand people's reluctance to take a MAC team as a (slight) favorite over an SEC team. All I can do, however, is look at the rosters and bet accordingly. Vandy definitely has an SEC caliber secondary, but they are so young elsewhere, they more closely resemble a MAC team to start the year than an SEC team. Losing a player like Bennett is esp hard for a program like Vandy and now their leading returning receiver Smith (I said Baker above, screw up) is out for the first couple weeks of the year; unless Adams or Nickson, neither of whom has impressed enough in the spring to win the job, use their athleticism to get FD's, I really see Vandy struggling on offense with an entirely new OL.
Click to expand...


Agree on Vandy secondary and totally understand the concern with Vandy OL replacing 5 starters but they are replacing them with players who are all juniors/seniors so that is refreshing to know. I believe Nickson was hurt last year that is why Adams got the nod and do believe Nickson is the better player. The loss of Smith certainly hurts but I think Vandy is well enough coached and has a good enough defensive game plan to keep MOH in check in a low scoring game here. I also believe even though its Vandy that they still have a speed advantage over MOH. The other part of me doesn't want to believe an SEC team is going to lose to a MAC team.

I can only hope for a total of 41+
 
horses said:
VK, lol, have to get these vacations out of the way before football season starts.

On another note, I don't know what the hell is wrong with some of my friends...I had two wedding invitations waiting for me when I got back for fall Saturday weddings. WTF is wrong with people, anyway?! Fortunately, I'm not actually in either of them.

Tennessee now a full seven.
Click to expand...


Totally. Nothing pisses me off more. It's tough to tell friends that you like football more than them, but it also weeds them out pretty quickly.

GL this season man. Looking forward to your threads.
 
Gonna be a great season bro.

Can't complain with your futures or the Tenny play at this point.

BOL and have a great season.:cheers:
 
MIAMI OH VS. VANDY

Let's clear something up, this is NOT Miami OH's best linebacking corps.

The Hawks from 03-05 featured freak Terne Nande and also John Busing, two guys in the NFL. We'll see how many this Redhawk team has, only WLB Clayton Mullins MAC Def POY LY has a chance.

That 03 team with Roethlisberger also featured offensive guard Jacob Bell who just inked a 6 year deal with the Rams after starting 31 games the last two seasons witht the Titans. A really understated lineman.

Both corners Alphonso Hodge and Darrell Hunter have been in the league. Ryne Robinson and Josh Betts two other players on the roster in the league that I know of.

That team would of been in a BCS bowl if they had that opportunity.


---This is a no play but I lean Vandy. I just think the talent in't their like it used to be for some of these MAC teams, BG, Miami inparticular. Miami OH sucked last year out of conference deceptive score vs. Vandy too. I think it was like Wyoming vs. Ohio had just about as many yards as carries.

Miami won't be able to score despite Vandy losing up front guys. Trenches a wash but back 7 enormous edge Vandy.

Vandy loses oline Miami experienced on D, but vandy replaces with veterans and Miami sucked with same players last year. Linebackers vastly overrated, they did not fill games and were run all over by Colorado and others. Weak Dline

Edge Miami at home vs. SEC once in a lifetime opportunity.

No way I play this game, if forced it'd be Vandy.
 
Appreciate all the responses; esp good to see Garfather posting here and I hope it continues into the season.

BAR, Pags and Troy...college football forum mainstays; BAR...I hope we can get back on the beam on those weekday games like we did two years ago. LY the weekday games didn't treat me so well.

JPicks...that essentially boils it down; I would rather watch football than go to just about any wedding.

O-State and ETG, really appreciate your thoughts on the Vandy-Miami (Oh) game; O-St is correct when he points out that Vandy outgained the 'Hawks by about 150 yds LY and had a 24-16 FD advantage as well. These are different teams though and I see quite a large advantage at WR for Miami (Oh) as Vandy is going to have CB Moore line up at WR as well for some snaps due to the dearth of talent at this position for Vandy. A sunBelt team won AT an SEC team LY so this doesn't seem like too big a stretch to me...

Finding the week 1 lines to be pretty sharp and most line moves have gone against me (see: Temple). Thoughts on other Thurs games:

UTEP at Buffalo -3: Having a difficult time getting a read on UTEP, otherwise I would seriously consider taking these points. No way I bet Buffalo here.

NCS at S Car -11': South Carolina remains on my short list; see no hurry to play this yet though.

Wake Forest at Baylor +12': See a lot of folks on WF; Yes, they could win this game 35-10 but I look at the Syracuse and Army games the L2Y's and realize that this team is not to be bet as a decent-sized favorite under most circumstances. A definite pass.

Oregon St -3 at Stanford - Nailed this spread...pass. Fully aware of OSU's front 7 departures but does anyone really think the Stanford OL is going to push them around??? I say this game comes down to how well the Stanford defense does against the Beaver Offense...and right now, I have no clue.

Troy -5 at MTSU - Ditto...pass.
 
Thanks Grind...

Adding South Carolina -12 over North Carolina St

Not going to write anything up since one of the best threads I've ever witnessed at CTG covers this game elsewhere. I had this spread at 17, myself.
 
Also...note that this spread is 13 at Pinnacle and is clearly trending upward everywhere. Sure this is because NCS announced Wilson as the starting QB.

Miami (Oh) up to -3' at all shops; will definitely have a middle opportunity here in what should be a lower scoring affair if i decide to take it.
 
Ended up getting a great line on Miami OH, nice.

I really like SC as well, but I can't play it in conjunction with the under. GL this week horses.
 
Both of those futures look like winners from here, horses.
Here's wisjhing you a great season.:cheers:

As for weddings on fall saturdays, yuk.
Send a nice gift and say you're sorry but you expect to be sick that day.
I am old and cantankerous eough so I can just screw it and not go. Might piss the wife for a couple of days, but that's it.

Cheers,
taurus the bull
 
JPicks said:
Totally. Nothing pisses me off more. It's tough to tell friends that you like football more than them, but it also weeds them out pretty quickly.

GL this season man. Looking forward to your threads.
Click to expand...

I absolutely know the feeling. I have 4 that I have to get out of this fall. One I might be in, not sure yet. The other three I will just make up lies.

Horses, do you know anything about Wilson? I read where he is a little more mobile, which sort of concerns me based on how that ULL game transpired in last year's season opener.
 
Yanks, Good to see you and glad to have you aboard a couple of my sides.

Thanks for the wishes Bull; actually, one of the weddings is in Seattle so it'll be easy to bow out; the other one is local and I'll end up going.

Boy, that Cal spread continues to drop. Could buy it down to 4 now. I fully respect Mich St and HC Dantonio but have they come this far to only be a small dog at Berkeley??? I also realize they lost no game by more than 7 pts last year, as well. I really want to bet Cal...
 
Garfather,

There is very little info on Wilson: 5'11", rFR, expecting a lot of waggles and deception to get Wilson out of the pocket. His height and what should be a shaky pocket tells me what O'brien's likely intentions are in this game, and that is to more or less replicate ULL's offensive effort LY. I doubt you see many 5 or 7 seven step drops. With WR Bowens out as well, I expect a ball management, low risk offense that emphasizes field position. S Car has new DC Ellis (Miss DC L4Y), not sure how that shapes up. ULL QB Desormeaux had some (not a ton) gm experience coming into the opener LY, NCS QB Wilson has never taken a collegiate snap. Naturally, I'm expecting a better opening week performance from S Car defense and I actually think LY's sub-par opening wk effort helps us this time around.

Gar, What about the Ducks week 1? They always seem to roll opeing week. Their 'D' this yr looks downright rude.
 
I would play Oregon before I play Washington, but no one is forcing me to play either, so I won't. Roper is mediocre in all honesty. I don't think he is as bad as he looked against UCLA or OSU, but he probably won't play as well every Saturday as he did against USF. I have a strong preference for Costa, provided he is 100% and not restricted in any way. He ran the offense in high school, has mobility, maybe can't break off a 60-yarder the way Dixon could, but he will consistently get 10 yards. Very smart. Was clear-cut #2 to Dixon in running Kelly's offense prior to tearing his ACL. I think its pretty clear at this point that Roper will get the start in WK 1, after that its anyone's guess.

Defense could very well be better than the offense for the first time in a very long time. DL will be better than your normal UO DL, but still not to be confused with USC or LSU. I don't agree with Mr. Steele that they possess the country's best secondary, but I think it is damn good, probably top 5. Patrick Chung is going to the NFL, not much more to say about him. Nick Reed with 22.5 sacks/TFL is obviously an impossible load for anyone to handle and I would expect him to surge upfield in order to keep Locker in the pocket and prevent him from running laterally where he can do his damage. The tackles are just fine, neither one is a drop-off from Jeremy Gibbs. I think it will be Linehan and Harris that get the starts, but the one I really want to see is Justin Thompson. We also have a couple other nice tackles in the JC pipes lined up for next year. Our linebackers will be average like always.
 
Blue Chip...:shake:

Gar,

Thanks for the Duck write-up; I agree with about everything you say, except you know more about the QB situation than I. I guess the question I would have is why are they choosing the QB that deviates from the spread option? The Ducks execute that offense very well and I realize you're not going to have a Dixon-type talent running it every year. (West Virginia will find that out next year when White graduates). We'll find out more about that Duck secondary when they visit Purdue shortly; Painter is a very underrated QB.
 
Looks good horses and GL

I really like that OSU big10 prop but 5dimes doesnt have theirs up yet, and it looks like BM took it off the board now? All I see is big12, SEC, and pac10.
Is BM where you got it at?

OU over 10 loooks good... not sure what im going to do with the big 12 yet. Lookin at mizzou to win @ +300, and may take OU over 10 and hope they meet in the title game as its certainly plausible and a decent spot for a possible middle.

Like tenny alot as well.... (as most of the board does)

BOL this season
 
Gar, thx for the link; honestly, haven't followed the ducks or dogs much since the initial line was released since I had it close enough at 15 to pretty much scratch it off my list...just thought maybe you had a strong lean but I see that you don't.

Cap, thx man; got the Ohio St prop at the greek in late July; got both of them there actually in that time-frame. As far as Missouri goes, I tend to agree, since they should probably be less than that if they play in the B12 Championship, even vs OU. Think they should get there so looks pretty solid.
 
Thanks Hunt, actually RJ only drinks wine coolers.

I can get Vanderbilt +4' right now with my local; time to decide if I want to middle this game back.
 
Fondy and TimH...thanks for the wishes.

Going to play Temple -7 over Army (1/2 unit)

Not a ton to say here; I like to play as many weekday games as I can for smaller amounts. If this game was part of a full slate I would likely pass it, as it is more of a lean. For my own bookeeping purposes I keep track of these games separately. As far as the game goes, I esp like the matchupof Temple's DL vs an offense in some transition; also counting on QB DiMichele to return to form prior to his week 8 injury last year.

Good luck.
 
Good luck, dude, and hope the hangover gets better.

I can't believe the amount of H2O that I am drinking today...
 
Loose...thanks for the words.

Azzie...we should be 1-0 after today, good luck

Jump and LJC...your avatars continue to distract the hell out of me!

Adding:

Wyoming -12 over Ohio
USC -19' over Vagina
Utah +3' over Michigan
UL Lafayette +10 over S Miss
W Mich +15 over Nebraska

Good luck; may be back with a total or another side for 1/2 unit or so later.

Enjoy the games!
 
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