Any other thoughts here? I know everyone is in love with NCST as a dog at home after beating ECU and having BC on the ropes... but to me FSU is another animal... so much speed and finally an effective offense... statement time.
A road favorite has to cover sometime and this fits the bill. 50% on a dog is public as it gets. FSU for me.
Looking to see if I can get -10 even at -120 .
The BC game the difference was NCST was tremendous in the kick game and had a 61 yd TD which was like 25% of its total offense that game . Worse is the amount of yardage they allowed pasing and to Crane . That was really soft knowing what BC had looked like offensively coming in . So I dont think NCST had any offensive improvement just some timely plays that produced points for them . The scary part was how bad the defense its key so far had played .
ECU is just a team living off a couple early wins . They have been shit since the Tulane game especially on defense . Which they did lose a key LB around that time or maybe it was @ NCST . That game holds no water . If BC and ECU arer TD or so favs then FSU deserves to be DDs IMO.
FSU defense and the team in general I think will learn from stepping on Miami then being sloppy and allowing them to make it a game .
I actually like that NCST has played them well recently going 6-0-1 ATS because this seems like a great spot to end that trend .....
The most positive thing for State is Russell Wilson being the QB inboth ECU and BS games .....
Justto look at how lopsided the last NCST game was see the drive charts-
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center><TD class="yspTabActive yspsctbg">Drive Log</TD><TD class=yspTabMore width="100%"></TD></TR><TR vAlign=center><TD class=yspsctbg colSpan=6 height=5></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=560 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>
Boston Coll. Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
14:45 </TD><TD class=c>
1:30 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 33</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
7</TD><TD class=c>
Punt. Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
12:25 </TD><TD class=c>
2:39 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 39</TD><TD class=c>
6</TD><TD class=c>
61</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
7:09 </TD><TD class=c>
2:59 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 20</TD><TD class=c>
9</TD><TD class=c>
80</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
3:25 </TD><TD class=c>
3:17 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 44</TD><TD class=c>
6</TD><TD class=c>
56</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
14:35 </TD><TD class=c>
2:10 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 14</TD><TD class=c>
7</TD><TD class=c>
60</TD><TD class=c>
Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
3:35 </TD><TD class=c>
0:10 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 29</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
22</TD><TD class=c>
Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
1:55 </TD><TD class=c>
1:50 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 20</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
0</TD><TD class=c>
Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
12:35 </TD><TD class=c>
3:22 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 34</TD><TD class=c>
8</TD><TD class=c>
66</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
5:43 </TD><TD class=c>
8:14 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 14</TD><TD class=c>
16</TD><TD class=c>
85</TD><TD class=c>
FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
12:04 </TD><TD class=c>
1:14 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 30</TD><TD class=c>
5</TD><TD class=c>
23</TD><TD class=c>
Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
9:47 </TD><TD class=c>
4:00 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 22</TD><TD class=c>
9</TD><TD class=c>
41</TD><TD class=c>
Downs</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
3:33 </TD><TD class=c>
3:11 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 30</TD><TD class=c>
7</TD><TD class=c>
71</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=10></TD><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>
N.C. State Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
13:15 </TD><TD class=c>
0:50 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 19</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
2</TD><TD class=c>
Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
9:16 </TD><TD class=c>
1:57 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 39</TD><TD class=c>
7</TD><TD class=c>
61</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
4:00 </TD><TD class=c>
0:35 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 40</TD><TD class=c>
4</TD><TD class=c>
-4</TD><TD class=c>
Downs</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
12:25 </TD><TD class=c>
8:40 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 28</TD><TD class=c>
16</TD><TD class=c>
71</TD><TD class=c>
FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
3:25 </TD><TD class=c>
1:30 </TD><TD class=c>
BC 49</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
4</TD><TD class=c>
Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
0:05 </TD><TD class=c>
0:05 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 45</TD><TD class=c>
1</TD><TD class=c>
0</TD><TD class=c>
End Half</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
14:55 </TD><TD class=c>
2:20 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 31</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
8:33 </TD><TD class=c>
2:50 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 28</TD><TD class=c>
7</TD><TD class=c>
16</TD><TD class=c>
Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
12:11 </TD><TD class=c>
0:00 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 39</TD><TD class=c>
1</TD><TD class=c>
61</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
10:50 </TD><TD class=c>
1:03 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 29</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
4</TD><TD class=c>
Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
5:47 </TD><TD class=c>
2:14 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 37</TD><TD class=c>
5</TD><TD class=c>
63</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
0:17 </TD><TD class=c>
0:17 </TD><TD class=c>
NCSt 36</TD><TD class=c>
3</TD><TD class=c>
-9</TD><TD class=c>
End Reg</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
With NCST the only times they moved the ball they wound up producing pts on those 4 drives (24pts plus a 100yd kick return) . One cant say they didnt have very good starting field position all day long after the intial drive at there own 19. They started on there 39 , 28 ,39 and 37 when they scored . They wont be that fortunate IMO today . They also in the 1st H started at the BC 40 and had a 4 play TOD and then the BCU 49 which lead to a 3 and out punt . They started at the 19 , 31 ,29, 28 producing all 3 and outs except one 7play 16 yd drive that was a punt ...so its not like they handed BC pts off turnovers and mistakes.
At time especially early BC had some better then avg field position but for the most part didnt have anything special . No drives starting in the NCST territory and the closest one was at the BC 44 after they stopped St on downs when the Wolfpack had that drive starting at BC's 40.
Opening drive was a punt then 61 , 80 and 56 yd drives which granted 2 of those had medium starting field position . The 2nd Q BC moving the ball fumbled on a play starting at the St 34(on the 26 fumbled) and the St 45(fumbled on teh 39) . More importantly the fumbles were on nice gains on 1st down so looking at 2nd and 3 or 4 yds on the 26 and 39 . So good chances seeig as how they scored 3 TDs the previous drives they left some pts off the board on those 2 drives.
Then 2nd H they start going 66 yds (34 decent starting field position) and go 16plays 85 yds over 8 minutes and cant punch it in from teh 1yd line settling for the DREADED 17.5yd FG ! I always talk about momentum that is always deflating to be held to a TD like that and of course 1st play for State what happens ? 61yd TD pass ...its like clockwork ....
4th Q moving the ball Crane is picked after gaining 23 yds into NCST territory (3rd and 6 at the 47NCST picked off), then TOD after 9 plays 41yd drive leaves them on NCST 37 yd (killed by a hold on 3rd and 7 at the 34 probably should have punted but had made a 4th and 9 previously), and in a tie game go 7plays 71 yds for a TD......
NCST defense had no answer at all all game . A few miscues from BC allowe NCST to hang around and with that what usually happens ? A SU win or at worst the ATS win .......
Tougher defense and similiar type level offense makes me think that we see a more crisper game from FSU after there Miami game and really same type game NCST has been playing w/o the timely good fortune .....
BC went up 17-0 and while NCST scored to make it 7-7 they also had a 15yd penalty help them , then BC ball and all passes get 80 yds and the 7pts back . So 14-7 they get a good kick return to put them on the BC 40 which is where they were stopped on dowms. Momentum change for sure and of course BC gets a TD but just when St looks dead they get a 100yd kick return . So 21-7 becomes 21-14 quickly . Thats just the 1st Q!!
BC then moves the ball but the fumble on 1st down after 8yds gained at the St 26 . Again momentum shift and ST has along drive but settles for 3 as the also had teh 17.5 yd FG ! Actually noty because on 3rd and 1 Wilson fumbled and they were lucky to recover but at the 5yd line. So actually 22yd FG. Then now 21-17 and again St driving and fumbles inside teh ST 40 on 1st down...more pts as I mentioned off the board in all probablty . Thats how the half ends.....
State had a 60 yd drive aided by a 15 yd penalty , a 100yd kick return and after building some momentum from the kick return TD they watch BC drive and fumble nearing the ST red zone ...more momentum which turned into a FG .....
So down 21-17 with 1 drive before half and the ball to start after half the Wolfpack did zip failing to get 1st downs both times and punting . Which the drive before half started at BCs 49 and then after the half at there own 31 . So chances missed .
Now 1st possession 3rd Q and BC goes right down field AGAIN to make 28-17 . States ball down the 11 they move it to BCs 43 . Which on 1st down Wilson is sacked losing 3 , then assume Wilson had no one to throw to and tried to run picking up a 1 yd then on 3rd long maybe he threw a screen to Brown that was fumbled and lost 10 yds end result PUNT .
So 28-17 BC driving as the 3rd Q ends. Which they started at theer own 14 . 1st and 10 at the State 29 as the clock winds not sure why they didnt just let the 3rd Q expire if they could . They might not have been able to but Crane inc says 3 seconds left . Then worst possible thing consecutive false starts and the Quarter still hasnt expired . Remember 1st and 10 Crane picked up 4 yds at the 23 second mark which I assume is when the play clock started for 2nd down but could be wrong . Anyway that 2nd and 6 with 23 seconds left somehow turns into 3rd and 17 with 3 seconds left to end the quarter . Silly shit folks !!! Avoidable shit ...They get 7 yds to make it 4th and 9.5 from the 30yd line .
Huge play they get 27 yds to ST 3 to start the quarter . Problem is 1st and goal at the 3rd yd line turns into 1yd , 1yd and no gain then the 17.5 yd fg.
So they could have ICED the game at 35-17 instead its just 2 scores at 31-17 . With 12 to play like I said leave the door open and bang 1st play 61 yd TD! So instead of 35-17 that failure to score cost them 11 points as its now 31-24 with 12 to play !
Now 3rd and 6 from St47 and again mometum changer feeding State an INT !! TO BC defense credit them with making alot of big plays and holding St in check with 3 and outs . The opposite of what we saw on Sunday with Dallas @ Zona. Dallas had Zona bakced and in 3rd and way long and twice allowed them to convert . Later scoring TDs so momentum is huge always !
Again BC ball and driving take it to the 34 yd line and get a holding on 3rd down making it 3rd and 17 from the St 44 . They get 7 yds and then an INC . 4th and 10 from the 34 si no mands land if you cant kick a FG . Do you punt and risk a net of 14 yds or go for it ? So not a bade decision IMO. Unfortunately they dont get it and Sts ball there own 37 !
Of course more momentum shifts and 35yd pass play follwoed by 20 yd pass play. In blink its St at the BC 8 looking to tie. Again BC defense steps up and gets teh 1st down sack 2nd and 15 nothing , 3rd and 15 pass intereference puts it on the 2yd line and Wilson runs it in.
So just like the earlier State score they were aided by a 15 yd penalty well 13yd here but of course at crucial time.
All tied at 31 now. BC goes 7 plays for 70yds in3 minutes and wins it .
Just a few key plays here and there for BC offense and State may not have scored most of there points ......
Now insert FSU as there next opponent .
First Chuck Amato always love how out of place a guido looks in the South . Ole CHuck is back on Bowden's staff so you think he will have the linebackers/defense pretty in tune with the players of NCST ...I sure do . As I showed above ST issues with making some plays throughout the BC game when it was close as they failed on 3rd down . Well FSU 19% for opponents on 3rd down. Some ask the question was Ponder's 81 yd TD drive late @ Miami his turning point or light bulb moment ? Who knows ....
FSU has Gano with a strong leg hitting two plus 50yd FGS something BC had to pass on and hope for the best in that NCST 30-40 yd area. However this was on Yahoo Sports --
• PK Graham Gano has not healed well enough from a knee injury to tempt being used kickoffs as well as extra points and field goals.
The Seminoles were not happy with the way kickoff specialist James Esco handled the Miami game, causing numerous long returns...
This is HUGE IMO as State hung with BC thanks to teh 100yd kick return but also another 60 yd return that put the defense on its heels.
Basically its FSU here for me with a concern with the special teams play . Since there is that probably will cause me to pass on the UNDER though not 100% . Miami is a very solid defense and FSU did well moving ot vs them real well . The WF game was there down point in the season it looks as FSU made huge strides vs COl then @ Miami on offense.
FSU had 4 costly turnovers @ Miami some taking away chances at point and others giving Miami quick and easy scores . They also had 2 stopped on downs the 1st early in the game around Miami's 37 but a bigger on inside the Miami 20 at the 17 to close the 3rd Q.
So FSU probably handed Miami 17 pts due to there turnovers and took off a possible chance at some on the opening drive . The T.O.D. cost them only field position early but a conversion puts the at the Miami 35 yd line and later they lost at least 3 maybe 7 pts with the TOD at the Miami 17 .
Plus Miami had a 1 play 51 yd TD and long TD drive at the end of the game when it didnt really matter . As well as getting a FG down 24-0 a minute before half .
7plays 41 yd FG drive started with a 1 minute before half down 24-0 after having 18 plays for 11 yds nets the 1st H .
1play 18yd td drive after a INT
then a 40+ plus yd kick return after FSU scored a TD aided by another penalty taking 16 yds onto the kick so Miami started at the FSU 25 yd line. Which on 2nd and 7 at the 22 FSU got an 11 yd penalty and teh 1st down but did give the yards back on a hold . Anyway they got 3 points out of that
they get a safety and short kick puts them at midfield ...boom a 51 yd td .....
After FSU gets an INT on 4th and 6 and is bakced up at there own 3 then Ponder throws an INT for a Miami TD score ( 3 yd defensive TD)
FSU on 3rd and 1 stuffed at there own 24 and then boom a fumble setting up Miami but they score just 3 points ..
Then 4 minutes left Miami drives and gets a TD but not w/o the help of FSU on 4gth down . Miami 4th and 9 at the FSU is flagged for PI and automtic 15 yds then Miami scores a fe wplays later .....
So sloppy for FSU vs Miami but Miami a much better team then NCST and was able to take advantage of........
The end .....
Hoping to get FSU -10 but will play them at -11 as I feel -13 is correct or wuz correct . Lean the under have some small at 49 but reading about the kickoff issues makes me think it could give State a cheap TD somehere in there and States defense was terrible vs BC ....so 31-17 might be about right ....might just opt for FSU TT over ...:cheers:
