Friendly Warning
- Thread starter tuck321
- Start date
lungster
Pretty much a regular
just wondering, how come the suns are in a horrible spot? i mean they've had 3 days off since the SA buzzer beater so i dont think they'll still be lingering over the tough loss and they might wanna take it out on OKC. they are playing mem and clips next, so dont see a look ahead game either.
SF_capper
CTG addict
I'm not tuck, but from his writeups I think he is less of a motivational capper, and more if a trend kinda guy, so factors could be stuff like suns are bad on lots of rest, or are bad as road chalk of this size, okc does well getting these kinda points, etc. Just guessing tho-would like to see the reasoning tho as well
lungster
Pretty much a regular
i put a bit on OKC. noticed that suns might not be motivated and at the same time, OKC always plays suns well and being 9 points dog at home is too much. OKC tends to bring the oldness factor out of the suns. BOL
also like memphis as well, think that they can hang with minny. also like orlando, and atl at first glance but need to see the lines.
also like memphis as well, think that they can hang with minny. also like orlando, and atl at first glance but need to see the lines.
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Will start putting them in :smiley_acbe:. Do you remember Hubie Brown? Nice old guy. Started coaching the Grizz at 69. one year later they were an elite team going to the playoffs and he was Coach of they Year. Along the way the junior Spurs as I liked to call them had a lot of interesting games with the Suns. Very big rivalry. The next year some of players started bickering about time and Hubie felt he was to old to babysit children and resigned. Things got much worse but the Suns kept a serious interest in the Grizz. They have beaten them 9 in a row and 16 of the last 20. Not a friendly relationship.
The Suns play Tuesday at the Grizz. They have let Portland slip off their grip this year and now the Grizz are actully threatening to become a team again. Not acceptable to the Suns. Seattle is still Seattle. Through 2006 they are 8-2-1 ats against the Suns. Suns just never have liked beating up on this team. Sometimes it happens by accident. Last time they won at Seattle by 12 I was sitting watching the game and Nash and the Suns were doing everything possible to toss points to OKC. The OKC team was in a major funk and Refused to take them so I pushed getting 12. Annoying but funny.
Funny trend about the Suns which is listed at Killersports. In the regular season after playing the Spurs, the Suns are 1-14-2 ats in the next game. The one game they covered on was at home.
Some negatives here. This is first game of a b-b which is usually strong for the Suns and the last game was a 1 point win which is also bad. But OKC has 2 wins in their last 20 which bothers Nash a lot and last 20 on the road against a 9 the suns covered this number 4 times. The teams were NJ, Indiana, Spurs and the Grizz. All teams the Suns dislike. After this game 7 of the next 8 teams the Suns face they dislike and the other one is a close call. Not saying we can not lose but you should be optimistic.
The Suns play Tuesday at the Grizz. They have let Portland slip off their grip this year and now the Grizz are actully threatening to become a team again. Not acceptable to the Suns. Seattle is still Seattle. Through 2006 they are 8-2-1 ats against the Suns. Suns just never have liked beating up on this team. Sometimes it happens by accident. Last time they won at Seattle by 12 I was sitting watching the game and Nash and the Suns were doing everything possible to toss points to OKC. The OKC team was in a major funk and Refused to take them so I pushed getting 12. Annoying but funny.
Funny trend about the Suns which is listed at Killersports. In the regular season after playing the Spurs, the Suns are 1-14-2 ats in the next game. The one game they covered on was at home.
Some negatives here. This is first game of a b-b which is usually strong for the Suns and the last game was a 1 point win which is also bad. But OKC has 2 wins in their last 20 which bothers Nash a lot and last 20 on the road against a 9 the suns covered this number 4 times. The teams were NJ, Indiana, Spurs and the Grizz. All teams the Suns dislike. After this game 7 of the next 8 teams the Suns face they dislike and the other one is a close call. Not saying we can not lose but you should be optimistic.
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Why Orlando? Have mentioned this angle many times here. Detroit after an upset win as an underdog is 5-17 ats the last 3 years. This angle is stronger if the team is from the East. This season they are 0-3 su and ats in that role. If they won the game today that trend would be in operation when they play the Nets a team they genuinely dislike and play next which beat them the last time the teams play. The Pistons are snobs. Being made an undrdog to the Bucks was totally unacceptable because the Bucks are not a good team and the Pistons know it. Orlando is simply in another class and Detroit knows it. Detroit as a 0-4 dog is 7-13 su and 7-12-1 ats. This season they are 1-1. The game they won was another joke game like the Bucks where they were made a dog at Toronto and they said "We are SO Scared"
There are a lot of angles supporting Orlando but we all know the bottom line that they have played extremely well against good teams. So--I laid 2.5. If Nelson is really hurt we could be in trouble but just about impossible to get good injury info so that is what I did.
There are a lot of angles supporting Orlando but we all know the bottom line that they have played extremely well against good teams. So--I laid 2.5. If Nelson is really hurt we could be in trouble but just about impossible to get good injury info so that is what I did.
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Have taken 7.5 first half with Washington. Why? To start this season Houston at home in the first half after a win is 1-5 ats. The one they won was against GS were they won the first half by 5. We all know about the recent double ot and the health problems of Houston. Washington has shown some guts and is coming in with major revenge as well as Mike James their point guard who was ignored and given no chance at Houston. Sorry. would like to know who is playing. Butler was likely but not certain. With Houston--who knows. Thats it. if Butler plays will add some game bets
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
Tuck, about the Pistons game - I remember well last season when Pistons were talking about the need to stay in Magic's head as a superior opponent. To get be a dog to Magic at home is much more insulting and worries Pistons than the line they got against Bucks. Lewis and Nelson are banged up, Orlando on some crazy SU and ATS recent record and this is a great chance to end their run.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
this worries me:
<table class="wire" id="dgrdWire" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="date">12/29/08
01:27 PM</td><td class="title"> Injury Alert NBA </td><td class="text">Orlando F Rashard Lewis missed morning shoot around with an ankle injury and is questionable tonight against Detroit.</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="wire" id="dgrdWire" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="date">12/29/08
01:27 PM</td><td class="title"> Injury Alert NBA </td><td class="text">Orlando F Rashard Lewis missed morning shoot around with an ankle injury and is questionable tonight against Detroit.</td></tr></tbody></table>
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Why Atlanta? Just a bean counter. You look at teams and the situation and how they have responded. Had Denver yesterday because they have to win games and they knew that they were 3-7 ats against Atlanta and that Atlanta was a very firm home team and that they disliked the Knicks anyway.
The next team Denver plays after Atlanta in 2 days is Toronto. Then OKC. In 2008 Denver is 3-0 su and ats against Toronto and further back they have won 8 of the last 10. They have no respect for Toronto and very little for OKC. After those games they have a revenge game against NO. Now Denver in many ways is like NO. They can beat up on weak teams but usually have real trouble with strong ones. The game against Boston? Boston was completely off guard while Denver at that point was 4-4 and looking at going under 500 if they lost the game. There are no secrets or surprises today. Atlanta watched carefully as Denver tore apart the Knicks. They are very aware and very ready. Atlanta laying 6 or less this year is 0-2 on the road and 3-0 at home. Denver getting 6 or less is 1-3 su and ats this season. The win was at Dallas. Dallas had started going 2-7 and then found some soft games against injured and weak teams and had gone 11-2 against the sheep. Not ready for a wolf that has beaten them 5 out of the last 6 times they played.
Expectancy is key. Atlanta knows they play well against Denver and Denver knows they play well against Denver so it becomes true. Denver on the road b-b this year is 2-3 su and ats. The wins were at Boston and the Spurs and the Spurs game it was Duncan against Denver and 1 man does not win a game. And Denver shot 57% yesterday. Is that high enough to trigger the curse? No idea. Just guessing what to do like everyone else.
Thats it. GL
The next team Denver plays after Atlanta in 2 days is Toronto. Then OKC. In 2008 Denver is 3-0 su and ats against Toronto and further back they have won 8 of the last 10. They have no respect for Toronto and very little for OKC. After those games they have a revenge game against NO. Now Denver in many ways is like NO. They can beat up on weak teams but usually have real trouble with strong ones. The game against Boston? Boston was completely off guard while Denver at that point was 4-4 and looking at going under 500 if they lost the game. There are no secrets or surprises today. Atlanta watched carefully as Denver tore apart the Knicks. They are very aware and very ready. Atlanta laying 6 or less this year is 0-2 on the road and 3-0 at home. Denver getting 6 or less is 1-3 su and ats this season. The win was at Dallas. Dallas had started going 2-7 and then found some soft games against injured and weak teams and had gone 11-2 against the sheep. Not ready for a wolf that has beaten them 5 out of the last 6 times they played.
Expectancy is key. Atlanta knows they play well against Denver and Denver knows they play well against Denver so it becomes true. Denver on the road b-b this year is 2-3 su and ats. The wins were at Boston and the Spurs and the Spurs game it was Duncan against Denver and 1 man does not win a game. And Denver shot 57% yesterday. Is that high enough to trigger the curse? No idea. Just guessing what to do like everyone else.
Thats it. GL
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
How do I know team relationships? A lot of time spent on the net and game logs. Divol based on general info Orlando is the better team and a 5-17 trend over the last 3 years seems to me to justify playing the better team laying 2.5. " Do what you want. That shall be the whole of the Law." A black magician once said that and it is a very good way to live. :cheers:
lungster
Pretty much a regular
im referring back to this post!
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Not what I meant. See no reason for a first half bet on either of the first two games. With Washington and Houston and the 1-5 ats in the first half angle after a win at home for Houston it seems reasonable. Which team figures to have more energy and motivation early? I hope Washington but with Atlanta and Orlando I am betting on the best team with motivation. Atlanta not a strong first half team. Just trying to play a simple approach.
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Adding 3 half unit bets. Suns under 208. This is pure trend bet. half unit Washington plus 12.5. Nets minus 5.5 and Nets under 209.5. The why here is interesting but it is total speculation on my part. i think Chicago and the Nets both coming off absurdly high scoring games are going to look ahead and Chicago is going to look at the recent miserable past with Orlando and their own excellent home record and who Knows. Maybe the Orlando ats streak comes to an end in a couple of days from now.
woodywood187
Pretty much a regular
Hey Tuck, just curious how many of these games were Detroit a HOME dog? Nice write-ups GL tonight...
Agree , which is what makes the trend non applicable IMO ....how many times were they an inflated dog because of a star player absent as in upset win ? Great trend to be aware of and understand why it sounds good but think the context is different here:cheers:
philjackson
Pretty much a regular
nice call on the thunderboys. congrats!
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